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The Evening: Turkey Threat, Iran Threat, Yer Blues and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Thursday, July 26th.


** Turkey Threat
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President Trump today threatened to slap “large sanctions” on Turkey unless it freed an American pastor, prompting an immediate and angry response from Ankara and further escalating tensions between the two NATO allies, as Reuters Lesley Wroughton and Daren Butler report (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-usa/u-s-threatens-sanctions-against-nato-ally-turkey-over-american-pastor-idUSKBN1KG24M?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .


** Khan to Lead Pakistan
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Imran Khan, a charismatic cricket star who has fiercely criticized American counterterrorism policy in a region plagued by extremism, appeared poised on Thursday to become Pakistan’s next prime minister, as the
New York Times’ Jeffrey Gettleman reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/world/asia/imran-khan-pakistan-election.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “America’s Counterterrorism Gamble (https://www.csis.org/analysis/americas-counterterrorism-gamble?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Seth Jones.

“A Volatile Election Season in Pakistan (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/07/20/a-volatile-election-season-in-pakistan/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) ,” by Brookings’ Madiha Afzal.


** Iran Fires Back
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The powerful commander of Iran’s special forces warned the United States today to halt threats of military action against Tehran, raising the stakes in an already fiery exchange between U.S. and Iranian leaders this week, as the
Washington Post’s Erin Cunningham and Kareem Fahim report (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/powerful-iranian-general-warns-trump-that-war-would-destroy-all-that-he-owns/2018/07/26/c1499ec2-90b9-11e8-bcd5-9d911c784c38_story.html?utm_term=.e9b60b74fe69&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Iran Is at a Strategic Crossroads Again (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/iran-is-at-a-strategic-crossroads-again?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) ,” by the Washington Institute’s Omer Carmi.


**
Trade Breakthrough
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European capitals have welcomed the agreement reached by the U.S. and the EU on defusing trade tensions, with Berlin hailing it as a “breakthrough,” as the FT’s Jim Brunsden and Guy Chazan report (https://www.ft.com/content/bb216242-90bd-11e8-bb8f-a6a2f7bca546?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Trade restrictions on metals and minerals (https://resourcetrade.earth/stories/trade-restrictions-on-metals-and-minerals?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789#top) ,” via Chatham House.

Plus, listen to the CSIS “Trade Guys (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trade-guys/id1380336613?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) ” podcast.

And, read what EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday at CSIS (https://www.csis.org/analysis/transatlantic-relations-crossroads-conversation-european-commission-president-jean-claude?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .


**
End to Korean War?
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Washington’s reluctance to declare an end to the Korean War until after North Korea abandons its nuclear arsenal may put it at odds not only with Pyongyang, but also with allies in South Korea. The 1950-1953 Korean War ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty, leaving the U.S.-led United Nations forces technically still at war with North Korea. Friday marks 65th anniversary of the truce, as Reuters’ Josh Smith reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-peace-analysis/when-to-end-the-war-north-korea-us-at-odds-over-path-to-peace-idUSKBN1KG0PC?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: Listen to the CSIS podcast, “The Impossible State (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-impossible-state/id1389951701?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) ” with CSIS’s Victor Cha, Sue Mi Terry and the WSJ’s Jonathan Cheng.


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Fall
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Now enrolling for the Fall, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 190 trillion
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The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates that the South China Sea holds about 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil. Source: CSIS (https://amti.csis.org/a-blueprint-for-cooperation-on-oil-and-gas-production-in-the-south-china-sea/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789)


** Critical Quote
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** “Trade wars have no winners; they only leave scarce.”
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— European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday at CSIS (https://www.csis.org/analysis/transatlantic-relations-crossroads-conversation-european-commission-president-jean-claude?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789)


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
While U.S. strategy shifts to competition with state adversaries, the terrorism threat to the United States remains substantial at home and overseas. A new CSIS Brief from the Transnational Threats Project analyzes America's counterterrorism gamble (https://www.csis.org/analysis/americas-counterterrorism-gamble?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo credit: FAROOQ NAEEM/AFP/Getty Images). Pakistani cricket star-turned-politician Imran Khan addresses a political campaign rally ahead of the general election in Islamabad.


** Recommended Reading
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“China has a vastly ambitious plan to connect the world: What is behind the Belt and Road Initiative? (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/07/26/china-has-a-vastly-ambitious-plan-to-connect-the-world?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) ” via
The Economist.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 11:00 a.m. (https://www.usip.org/events/faith-and-fragile-states-political-stability-and-religious-freedom?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) , join the U.S. Institute of Peace for a panel discussion on how to engage religious actors in countering violent extremism and prospects for interfaith peacebuilding.


** Video
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Today, CSIS hosted the Eighth Annual South China Sea Conference. The conference featured speakers from the region and claimant countries of the South China Sea to address recent developments, legal and environmental issues, the strategic balance, and U.S. policy. Watch the full event here. (https://www.csis.org/events/eighth-annual-south-china-sea-conference?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789)


** Sounds
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On the latest episode of The Impossible State, Jonathan Cheng, the Seoul bureau chief for
The Wall Street Journal, joins resident experts Victor Cha and Sue Mi Terry by phone to discuss the specter of North Korea’s latest dismantling efforts, road blocks in the denuclearization talks, and the return of Korean War POW/MIA remains.

Listen on Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-impossible-state/id1389951701?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) and SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/grinding-it-out?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) .


** Smiles
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If you liked seeing Taj Mahal perform on the Rolling Stones’ Rock and Roll Circus, you might also enjoy this performance (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iuy-10Ejck4&list=PLFjuhgb3UjqaBeFCuIHeCTFqvb-e1WJCi&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789) starring three of the greatest rock stars of all time. And I think you might like the introduction to the song too.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f4dc98b4e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_26_06_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f4dc98b4e-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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