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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ) and Alexander Burns (
mailto:aburns@politico.com
aburns@politico.com )

2012 SNEEK PEEK - 'STRESS INDEX' - Mitt Romney will pounce this morning on President Obama's comment that the country is "stressed out" about the debt crisis, accusing him of taking a Jimmy Carter-like approach to the economy. A research hit from the Romney camp notes that it is the 32nd anniversary of Carter's so-called "malaise" speech, and features the following equation: "President Obama's 'Stress' = President Carter's 'Malaise.'" That refers to Obama's Thursday comment about the debt ceiling to WSOC-TV: "There's no doubt America is stressed out. That's why it's so important for us to get this thing settled right now." ROMNEY'S ATTACK: "Yes, Mr. President, Americans are stressed -
stressed about rising unemployment, falling home prices, and an economy that isn't working for them. Not since president Jimmy Carter have we seen such failed economic policies. Who would have guessed that we'd look back upon the Carter Administration as the good old days?" Context on Obama's quote:
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FIRST IN SCORE - NIXON DOUBLES UP - Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon raised over $1.4 million in the second quarter of the year and ended the month of June with $3.2 million in the bank, leaving him with a two to one cash advantage over his likely GOP opponent. Nixon has a solid edge in recent polling, but Republicans hope to target him in 2012 and a big financial advantage could put Nixon in a position to define the race early. His presumptive challenger, Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, announced Thursday that he had raised about $979,000 and had $1.6 million on hand. In a statement, Nixon campaign manager Oren Shur touted the governor's fundraising report and added: "The real reason that Jay
Nixon is in a strong position to be reelected is the tough leadership he's provided during uniquely challenging times."

DRIVING D.C.'S MORNING - STILL AN IMPASSE? The president holds another news conference about the debt ceiling at 11 a.m., after Thursday's negotiations ended with no agreement. But House Speaker John Boehner and other senior Republicans have signaled new openness to using Mitch McConnell's shortcut for raising the debt limit, POLITICO's David Rogers writes: "It would be a remarkable shift for House Republicans - something like telling Pickett's Charge to go around Cemetery Ridge and not up it ... But time is running short, and to describe Congress as a confused, even panicky army at this stage is not an overstatement ... Obama has left open the possibility of further budget talks this
weekend, but yesterday's session, about 80 minutes, was shorter than many and appears to have ended with him tossing the ball back to the House and Senate leaders to think over what's the next best step."
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IF THEY CAN DO IT IN MSP ... DAYTON'S ACCORD: An agreement reached in Minnesota Thursday promises to end the stalemate that closed state government 15 days ago. The deal is essentially what Republicans offered on the eve of the shutdown, but without any social policy demands from the GOP or an effort to reduce the state workforce by 15 percent. Hohmann explores the ripple effect: "There are national implications from the deal: if congressional Republicans draw the lesson from this imbroglio that the president might buckle on the debt ceiling debate if they stand as firm as the Minnesota GOP did for the last two weeks, the likelihood of default increases... 'Don't get too close to the
precipice,' [Minnesota Gov. Mark] Dayton said. 'Going to the brink, at least I've learned from this experience, is even more ill advised than I thought.'"
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As Sarah Palin burns through cash, Marcus Bachmann tells his side of the story and Bill O'Reilly makes a generous offer, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE REAL Q2 DEADLINE - SUSPENSE OVER BACHMANN - Two weeks after the end of the second fundraising quarter, candidates will finally hit the deadline today for submitting their full financial paperwork. That means we'll learn the top lines for candidates who haven't announced their numbers yet and the details for candidates who have. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is the most prominent Republican who hasn't put out her campaign fundraising so far. CBS News reported last night that she raised roughly $2 million in the three weeks after she declared her presidential campaign, and also transferred $2 million from her congressional committee. Stay tuned for the full report ... Bachmann also
announced her full campaign leadership team yesterday:
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EARLY LEAK - PAWLENTY'S PRIMARY MONEY - The former Minnesota governor revised his quarterly fundraising number upward, a source confirmed to POLITICO, with $4.5 million going into the Pawlenty campaign between April and June. That's an improvement over the $4.2 million Pawlenty initially announced. But the news is in Pawlenty's cash on hand number: He has $2 million in the bank, including $1.4 million in funds for the 2012 primaries. That's not too different than what John McCain had in the bank at this point in 2007 and it's more than Mike Huckabee had, but it leaves Pawlenty with very little room for error as he spends heavily on the Iowa straw poll.
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PALIN'S REPORT - NOT RAMPING UP: Sarah Palin's political action committee raised almost $1.7 million in the first half of 2011 and spent nearly all of it. She ended last month with $1.4 million in the PAC account. None of those are the numbers you'd expect from a nationally known Republican getting ready for a presidential run. POLITICO's Ken Vogel looks behind the numbers: "Sarah PAC continues to rely on a small inner circle of staffers, supplemented by short-term help from a motley network of supporters and neighbors that includes Palin's parents, Chuck and Sally Heath ... All told, payments to consultants and individuals working full or part time for Sarah PAC appear to total about
$511,000, out of the total of $1.6 million that the PAC spent in the first six months of the year."
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HOUSE EXCLUSIVE - NOEM KEEPS MO' - South Dakota Rep. Kristi Noem raised $365,000 for her reelection campaign in the second quarter and finished the reporting period with $612,000 on hand. That's Noem's second quarter in a row of raising more than $350,000 - a strong pace for any freshman, but especially one from an inexpensive state like South Dakota ... Also note: Illinois Rep. Peter Roskam raised $463,000 and has $1.7 million on hand for what's expected to be a chaotic 2012 cycle for Illinois Republicans
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WHAT THE 2012 CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Rudy Giuliani finishes his two-day swing through New Hampshire by speaking to a Dartmouth class on American Political Institutions. Mitt Romney is also in the Granite State, participating in a roundtable discussion in Berlin. Ron Paul has private meetings in Derry.

MORE - OUTSIDE N.H.: Tim Pawlenty is making the morning TV rounds, appearing on CNN's "American Morning" at 7:10 a.m. and CNBC's "Squawk Box" at 7:40 a.m. He also pre-taped an interview with Bloomberg's Al Hunt that should air tonight. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is in Des Moines, where he'll speak to the Conservative Breakfast Club, appear on Mickelson in the Morning and, in the evening, work as a guest broadcaster at an Iowa Cubs game. Jon Huntsman is in Salt Lake City, where the National Governors Association meeting also begins today.

MARCUS BACHMANN SPEAKS - "Says his clinics not anti-gay" - The Star Tribune reports: "The husband of Republican presidential contender Michele Bachmann has come forward to defend his family-owned Christian counseling business against growing questions and criticism that it benefited from federal payments and tries to turn homosexuals straight. Marcus Bachmann, who runs Bachmann & Associates Inc. out of clinics in Lake Elmo and Burnsville, said in an interview with the Star Tribune that his treatment business is not focused on converting gays to heterosexuality. He also denied that he has ever called gay people barbarians. Bachmann's comments followed several national media reports this week
that featured an undercover video made by a gay advocacy group in which a counselor at Bachmann & Associates is shown practicing 'reparative' therapy, a process aimed at helping a gay person become heterosexual." Read on:
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CATCHING UP WITH RUDY - DEFENDING MURDOCH AND GUN RIGHTS - The Union Leader tops its report on the former New York City mayor with Giuliani stressing his support for gun rights at a Manchester Harley dealership: "If he decides to run for President, Rudy Giuliani promises he will stick to his guns and protect your right to own them." In an interview with CNN's Candy Crowley Thursday, Giuliani found himself in the unenviable position of defending embattled News Corp. chief Rupert Murdoch, as the FBI begins to investigate alleged phone hacking of 9/11 victims. "He's an honorable, honest man," Giuliani said of Murdoch. "This can't be something that he would have anything to do with."
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IN OTHER NON-CANDIDATE NEWS - PERRY PLANS PAC EVENT - The Texas governor has sent out solicitations for an Aug. 9 fundraiser at the Austin Club, Texas Monthly's Paul Burka reports. The event is to benefit Perry's state-level PAC, which means he can take unlimited contributions but can't transfer them to a presidential campaign. He can still use the money for travel and other non-official, pre-campaign activity. Burka notes the striking size of the ask: "Not so long ago, a $10,000 check was considered generous. The top donor level for sponsorships at the upcoming fundraiser is $100,000/Lone Star Council Platinum."
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POLL OF THE DAY - EARLY WISCONSIN TEA LEAVES - The respected University of Wisconsin Badger poll brings some worrisome news for Republicans going into the state Senate recall campaign. The survey put Gov. Scott Walker's disapproval rating at 59 percent - 15 points higher than President Obama's 44 percent disapproval number in the state. A significant majority supports the recall process in general, but the electorate is evenly divided about whether to boot out the GOP senators. Check out the 10-page results PDF from the University of Wisconsin Survey Center:
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THE 2011 SCORE - DEMS FIND JINDAL OPPONENT? Louisiana Democratic state Sen. Rob Marionneaux told a local paper that business leaders are encouraging him to challenge incumbent Gov. Bobby Jindal, who currently faces no serious competitor. The way he talked about it with the Plaquemine, La., paper underscored just how challenging the race will be for anyone who tries to make a run at Jindal. "'I think anybody who gets in the race garners 40 percent of the vote,' said Marionneaux, who is term-limited from seeking another term as senator and has cooled on a previously announced bid to run for sheriff ... Marionneaux admitted it would be a difficult task to make a late start in the statewide
race against an incumbent with a $10 million war chest. 'But I don't think it's insurmountable,' he said."
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "So now I am offering to broker the debt compromise. I'll go down there. I'm ready to answer the call because I'm looking out for you, not some crazed ideology or political party." - Fox News host Bill O'Reilly, after being name-checked by White House press secretary Jay Carney
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