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By Emily Schultheis (eschultheis@politico.com; Twitter: @emilyrs) and Jose Del Real (
mailto:jdelreal@politico.com
jdelreal@politico.com ; Twitter: @jdelreal)

WELCOME TO CPAC-Today is the first day of the Conservative Political Action Conference, the biggest conservative confab of the year. A whole host of GOP pols-including almost every 2016 hopeful-will descend on National Harbor, Md., to speak with activists at this year's conference. CPAC is a place where presidential prospects come to hone their message and one speech can catapult a GOP upstart into the top of the political headlines.

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH, via POLITICO's James Hohmann: 1) Does the base rally around Christie?: His problem at CPAC is that many prioritize purity over electability. 2) Will they stand with Rand in the straw poll?: Rand Paul won last year in the immediate wake of his anti-drone filibuster, edging out Marco Rubio - who has subsequently taken a hit in public polls over his stewardship of comprehensive immigration reform. 3) How angry are social conservatives about the Arizona veto?: Many who will be at the conference continue to oppose same-sex marriage and believe Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer caved to pressure from the business community and others when she vetoed a bill its backers said was
designed to protect religious freedom. 4) How divided is the conservative movement on Ukraine?: After the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, many conservatives joined the libertarian wing's long-expressed desire for the U.S. to take a step back. 5)Who will be this year's breakout star?: After four decades, CPAC mythology is full of lore about mid-level politicians who catapulted into the conservative consciousness after great performances at the conference - and others who flopped.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=80f16c56616c48f70af3d60f67743cdbcd38f88f5f36a96ae4904b6ee4c91168
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=80f16c56616c48f70af3d60f67743cdbcd38f88f5f36a96ae4904b6ee4c91168

SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY: 9 a.m.: Ted Cruz ... 9:24 a.m.: Paul Ryan ... 10:19 a.m.: Mitch McConnell ... 10:25 a.m.: John Bolton ... 11:45 a.m.: Chris Christie ... 12 p.m.: Bobby Jindal ... 12:16 p.m.: Marco Rubio ... 12:31 p.m.: Mike Lee ... 2:30 p.m.: Wayne LaPierre ... 2:45 p.m.: Donald Trump (Full schedule:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=80f16c56616c48f724bf6b9f9f2186587104ca4b15c004fbf06a5591a64ab03b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=80f16c56616c48f724bf6b9f9f2186587104ca4b15c004fbf06a5591a64ab03b )

PREVIEW-CHRISTIE'S SPEECH: On background from a source close to Chris Christie, some hints on what to expect from his highly anticipated speech today: "Governor Christie will be true to his reputation as a no-nonsense executive with a record of getting things done in a blue state. Christie will draw on other Republican governors as examples of executives who have followed this brand of leadership ... Governor Christie will also speak about what it means to be a conservative Republican and about the importance of focusing on what we are for and not what we are against ... Also expect Christie to tell the audience we need to stop letting the media define who we are and embracing the
stereotypes perpetuated by political adversaries."

FIRST IN SCORE-DEM COMMITTEES OFFER CPAC PREBUTTAL: The DNC, DSCC, DCCC and DGA are teaming up this morning with a joint memo hitting Republicans over CPAC, saying it's an "agenda-setting moment" for the GOP's midterm strategy and messaging-and that the kind of attention Republicans will get from CPAC won't benefit their chances of victory. "Over the next few days, Republican Party leaders, prospective presidential candidates, Members of Congress, top activists and conspiracy theorists will gather to plan and discuss the future of the conservative moment," the memo reads. "After the 2012 election, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus pledged to stop the GOP's 'traveling circus' seeming to blame the
conservative cattle calls for their failure. With CPAC starting today, the traveling circus is back in town and the gathering is more divisive than ever. The CPAC crowd along with the Koch brothers and their network of special interest groups are the leaders of today's GOP." Read the full memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e964330b00582b6f53c5b982d88df637c37796c1e740290932
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e964330b00582b6f53c5b982d88df637c37796c1e740290932

As Mitt Romney steps back into Iowa politics, Mark Pryor gets in trouble talking about Tom Cotton's military record and Ted Cruz makes nice with John Cornyn, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 243.

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Good Thursday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to
mailto:eschultheis@politico.com
eschultheis@politico.com or tweet them to @emilyrs.

RATINGS CHANGES: Rothenberg moves CO-Sen from "Currently Safe Democrat" to "Democrat Favored"; moves MI-Sen from "Democrat Favored" to "Lean Democrat" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e954e11cb12afbc445e4546e3c6e77d90ee6115c006d597b71
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e954e11cb12afbc445e4546e3c6e77d90ee6115c006d597b71 ); moves IL-Gov from "Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat" to "Pure Toss-Up" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e932851f9d1cc9faad0fb40330e971e4ade84bed045626507b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e932851f9d1cc9faad0fb40330e971e4ade84bed045626507b ); and shifts CA-25 from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e9af4a35473281cb45da3fd7a74ac9ef6aac972bd0342973e0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e9af4a35473281cb45da3fd7a74ac9ef6aac972bd0342973e0 ). Cook moves CO-Sen from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat"; WI-Gov from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican"; and KS-Gov from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e98c6c4d63058d9b5d069cf7bdaf3f262ecf8bef6dc41e85f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e98c6c4d63058d9b5d069cf7bdaf3f262ecf8bef6dc41e85f9 ).

SCOOP-GIGLIOTTI BACKS HALL IN TX-04: Lou Gigliotti, who finished third in the primary race for GOP Rep. Ralph Hall's seat, is endorsing the incumbent. Your Score correspondent Jose reports: "'If it's not me then it's gotta be Ralph. He'll do a good job for another two years,' Gigliotti told POLITICO. 'I can tell you this: it was a chore to get voters in this district to vote for anyone but Ralph.' ... Gigliotti's endorsement could hamper [run-off challenger John] Ratcliffe just as he was gaining momentum. The 48-year-old runner-up, who self-funded much of his campaign, said Wednesday he'd seen a surge in donor interest."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e9da40b012c1c6a203890af9cce37aa9e1d4a60b64aec633c3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e9da40b012c1c6a203890af9cce37aa9e1d4a60b64aec633c3

TEA PARTY'S SILVER LINING IN TEXAS PRIMARIES: The New York Times takes on the idea that the tea party has run its course in Texas: "While establishment candidates in some of the top races were successful, Texas Republicans continued to tilt ever further right. ... [T]he lessons from Texas may be that tea party candidates and donors have become more selective about picking which races to focus on, that weak Tea Party candidates still make for weak candidates and that as mainstream Republicans move to the far right, the Tea Party can win even when it loses."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e9bd2bf9758bca5b89ceeca65c10cfda02776a3d6af06806b3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e9bd2bf9758bca5b89ceeca65c10cfda02776a3d6af06806b3

EXCLUSIVE-NRCC ROBOCALLS AGAINST SINEMA: Yesterday, it was a radio ad (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e99de2b996e94b0e6f2e21dad1992d7973e88db75c4dcf86b9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e99de2b996e94b0e6f2e21dad1992d7973e88db75c4dcf86b9 ); today, it's robocalls. The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching a robocall to thousands of homes in freshman Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema's district. The call focuses, as the radio ad did, on Sinema's role in promoting the Affordable Care Act. "As you and your family know, Obamacare is now the law of the land - and in Arizona, we have Congresswoman Sinema to thank," the caller says. In the NRCC's release, rapid response director Matt Gorman mentions that Sinema is "district shopping"-a reference to her reported consideration of switching over to the safer, nearby 7th district. Listen to the call:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e901d41c0236a994d8b4486355f076112015d9ace42c445c43
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d81ff81ca5df08e901d41c0236a994d8b4486355f076112015d9ace42c445c43

SCORE PREVIEW-TILLIS TELLS HIS STORY IN NEW AD: North Carolina state House Speaker Thom Tillis, one of the Republicans vying to take on incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, is out with his second ad today, this time focusing on his own bio and the way in which Washington dysfunction is hurting Americans. "My first job was a paper route. By 15, I was a short-order cook. Instead of college, I went to work; got my degree two decades alter. Twenty-five years in business; a partner at IBM," he says. "My story's not special-in America it happens all the time. But the train wreck in Washington puts that at risk." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83ef52238667937496c4a0b9217345dfbb767039a8073673ea1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83ef52238667937496c4a0b9217345dfbb767039a8073673ea1

SNEAK PEEK-RGA KEEPS UP ROSS ATTACKS: Continuing to focus on perhaps its best opportunity to play offense on the gubernatorial map, the Republican Governors Association is out with its latest TV ad against Democratic candidate Mike Ross in Arkansas. Like the other ads the group has run against Ross, this 15-second one uses his tenure in the U.S. House to tie him to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e97ab77dfec84bd41bba2c3d98c7cf65672bd8a113b54ac0f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e97ab77dfec84bd41bba2c3d98c7cf65672bd8a113b54ac0f

POLL-GOP RESISTENT TO CHRISTIE 2016 RUN: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that 30 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of independents would not support New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in a presidential run. The same survey showed that two-thirds of all voters would support or would consider supporting Hillary Clinton if she ran.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83ef3057203e4f5c0323fd0919a2a588a2952e348fdc1b5ef08
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83ef3057203e4f5c0323fd0919a2a588a2952e348fdc1b5ef08

STAT OF THE DAY, via the Center for Public Integrity's Dave Levinthal: "One in five dollars spent by all super PACs, nonprofit groups and the like on election advocacy came from identifiably conservative groups attacking Republican congressional candidates ... In all, conservative groups spent more than $2.3 million on negative ads targeting Republican candidates, according to FEC records."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e785862622491a325982830316ea5206fe613cf8c4eb7e403
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e785862622491a325982830316ea5206fe613cf8c4eb7e403

ACROSS THE MAP-Quick takes from races around the country:

SENATE-

-AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is receiving criticism for saying his GOP opponent, Tom Cotton, has a "sense of entitlement" because he's served in the army.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e7661c72f6ce9e804eb7fcd48104dfc61d6e698ae4f05d360
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e7661c72f6ce9e804eb7fcd48104dfc61d6e698ae4f05d360

-IA-Sen: Mitt Romney endorsed state Sen. Joni Ernst in the GOP primary.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e229309d2c5f0b6f0f2116409eda4844777c19d1be38a72d4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e229309d2c5f0b6f0f2116409eda4844777c19d1be38a72d4

-GA-Sen: GOP Rep. Paul Broun's campaign announced it is launching a second gun raffle.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e37dcc015625f6c1ddf0f4866fc886a22a96472385e4e9383
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e37dcc015625f6c1ddf0f4866fc886a22a96472385e4e9383

-NJ-Sen: Marine veteran Chris Isola is considering entering the GOP Senate primary race.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e27be3b332b4bcb479e536977ce265eda9577ebbb184c958e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e27be3b332b4bcb479e536977ce265eda9577ebbb184c958e

-TX-Sen: Tea party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed fellow GOP Sen. John Cornyn one day after his primary victory against Rep. Steve Stockman.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e6ff8516e5108a3a19011e295e773f3b96705d556edd79ed3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83e6ff8516e5108a3a19011e295e773f3b96705d556edd79ed3

HOUSE-

-FL-13: Democrat Alex Sink has a new ad out (which will likely be her last before the March 11 special election):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83efa5e56c83c516c5249b39a1ce23b073b4066de72b4c67993
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a113ce6b3a3fb83efa5e56c83c516c5249b39a1ce23b073b4066de72b4c67993 . She's also getting a helping hand from former President Bill Clinton, who will be featured in automated calls supporting her.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e35d01c06dfeb8730d837e99529aaf4ec5f519f3a3cc3d64e3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e35d01c06dfeb8730d837e99529aaf4ec5f519f3a3cc3d64e3

-More FL-13: A new report by the Tampa Bay Times raises questions over GOP candidate David Jolly's residency.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e30f4ae2eee90ce77f5aaa5f6834c016db695d036c8bd78244
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e30f4ae2eee90ce77f5aaa5f6834c016db695d036c8bd78244

-IA-03: Retiring GOP Rep. Tom Latham is refunding donations given to his 2014 reelection campaign.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e357a6002e49062a691600371528303ca24f1d20afdcb40bee
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e357a6002e49062a691600371528303ca24f1d20afdcb40bee

-IL-13: Ann Callis, a Democrat vying for the chance to take on GOP Rep. Rodney Davis, released a new ad focusing on her tenure as a judge.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3f4a8ddbf4bbd8699c2ee6c5bdd199b9ff2e8373522c71391
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3f4a8ddbf4bbd8699c2ee6c5bdd199b9ff2e8373522c71391

-MA-06: Democrat Seth Moulton, who's challenging incumbent Rep. John Tierney in the primary, is coming under fire for taking money from a Republican PAC.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e36a4ee8bbfb817b002110688d1ffc4dcee13150ea43d56929
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e36a4ee8bbfb817b002110688d1ffc4dcee13150ea43d56929

-VA-10: GOP candidate Howie Lind is out with his first TV ad.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e311452ecc0f209ec655a4bbbf58afa16034d96bf439c9c67f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e311452ecc0f209ec655a4bbbf58afa16034d96bf439c9c67f

GOVERNORS-

- IL-Gov: GOP candidate Kirk Dillard faced questions about his recent union endorsements in a tense televised primary debate. During the debate, Dillard took aim at front-runner Bruce Rauner, saying that electing him would be like "putting a rat in charge of the cheese.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e33b0a257ec7fecb38b69594507e429933b4c7ad74dc2e17e4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e33b0a257ec7fecb38b69594507e429933b4c7ad74dc2e17e4

-NY-Gov: Gov. Andrew Cuomo's approval rating has fallen to 42 percent, a 10 point drop and his lowest level since taking office, according to an NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3495042092043325f6d3f0d0e828c0b5f1a01ccf77febfe85
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3495042092043325f6d3f0d0e828c0b5f1a01ccf77febfe85

-WI-Gov: Democratic challenger Mary Burke released her first TV ad, set to begin airing Friday.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3290a90eeed77a4082ce2a74b81bd823be307eaeafe8bc0f0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3290a90eeed77a4082ce2a74b81bd823be307eaeafe8bc0f0

-KY-Gov (2015): Louisville Metro Council member Hal Heiner officially announced his candidacy for governor-more than 14 months before the state's GOP gubernatorial primary.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3d9fe6d186e1a4cdbd84f1ce2676f4cdf2aba015445ba7514
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=70b219fcd874b5e3d9fe6d186e1a4cdbd84f1ce2676f4cdf2aba015445ba7514

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: ""If I had stayed, there wouldn't have been a fruit basket turnover. I'm just kidding, don't put that down." -Texas Gov. Rick Perry on the role he played in the crowded 2012 presidential field
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9c2b362742b0201c1eb169a5881bd643a813c41761f59dafadb740530af934df
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9c2b362742b0201c1eb169a5881bd643a813c41761f59dafadb740530af934df

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