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Senate election pulse 20 days out

http://blog.livableworld.org/story/2014/10/15/153733/82

If you were to believe The Washington Post Election Lab - and I would advise against it -- the Senate elections are just about over. The Post says Republicans have a 94% chance of taking the Senate.

Assuming my math is any better than Election Lab's, that puts the GOP's odds at 15-1. I would take that bet.

Other election models are more cautious, giving Republicans a stronger chance at the majority than Dems, but by a much smaller margin than Election Lab's.

In fact, the elections remain very fluid, with Republicans having an advantage but not a lock. Some contests are moving toward Republicans and some toward Democrats.

For example, in the last day or so, there have been reports that Democrats are cutting funds slated for advertising in the Kentucky Senate race, suggesting that they have given up on Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) beating Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

On the other hand, there are signs that Michelle Nunn (D) has moved ahead in Georgia and might even be approaching 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.


Moreover, polling in some states provide differing results. While a number of polls give an advantage to Gardner (R) over Mark Udall (D) in Colorado, Democratic polling suggests the contest is even.

There are just too many uncertainties in the Senate races.

Real Clear Politics still lists 10 toss-up contests: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The Cook Political Report lists nine toss-ups, including all but New Hampshire from the previous list.

Does that sound like it is time to turn out the lights on the 2014 Senate elections and exalt Mitch McConnell as the new Majority Leader? Not a chance, unless you are a Nattering Nabob of Negativism (google the term if you have not heard of it).

Significantly neither list includes South Dakota, a late breaking four-way race in which a Republican, Democrat or an Independent could win. Both parties have suddenly dumped in huge amounts of money for ads in the last weeks of the campaign. It should be listed as a toss-up.


Furthermore, there are the wild cards. There could be runoff elections in Louisiana and Georgia if no candidate tops 50% of the vote. Two potential independents - Orman in Kansas and Pressler in South Dakota - will have to select a party with which to caucus if they win.


I don't think that election models can calculate what is in each independent's minds.


By the way, balloting by mail has already started in some states, including Colorado this week and Iowa at the end of September. Those who have already voted will not be influenced by late-breaking developments or a massive onslaught of ads or bad predictions. And Democrats are claiming that they have better systems in place for getting out those early votes.


Where does this leave us? Nate Silver of 538 gives a 58.6 chance of Republican control of the Senate next year. That sounds about right.


But that still leaves a 41.4% chance for the Democrats.

The latest polling last updated October 15:

Alaska: While all polling in the state is dubious, CNN/ORC poll has Sullivan (R) over Begich (R) 50%-44% (Oct. 1-6). Arkansas: Cotton (R) 45%, Pryor (D) 41%: CBS News/NYT poll. Colorado: Gardner (R) leading M. Udall (D) 50%-46% in CNN/ORC poll (Oct. 9-13). Georgia: Nunn (D) leading Perdue (R) 48%-45% in SurveyUSA poll (Oct. 10-13) Iowa: Quinnipiac poll puts Ernst (R) over Braley 47%-45% (Oct. 8-13). Kansas: Orman (I) over Roberts (R) 46%-43% according to PPP (Oct. 9-12). Kentucky: McConnell (R) 47%, Grimes (D) 41%: CBS News/NYT poll; Bluegrass poll has Grimes over McConnell 46%-44% and Mellman poll also has Grimes up 2 points. Louisiana: Cassidy (R) 47%, Landrieu (D) 41%: CBS News/NYT poll. Maine: Collins (R) 57%, Bellows (D) 33%: CBS News/NYT poll. Michigan: Peters (D) over Land (R) 48%-43% in Mitchell poll (Oct. 9) Minnesota: Franken (D) 49%, McFadden (R) 42%: CBS News/NYT poll. New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) over Brown (R) 48%-46% in High Point/SurveyUSA (Oct. 4-8). North Carolina: SurveyUSA has Hagan (D) ahead of Tillis (R) 44%-41% (Oct. 9-12) - note-yesterday's one point margin was based on 2 candidates, ignoring the Libertarian. South Dakota: Amazing race: Rounds 35%, Pressler 32%, Weiland 28% in SurveyUSA poll (Oct. 1-4). Virginia: Warner (D) still strongly ahead of Aillespie (R) 47%-37% in U. of Mary Washington poll (Oct. 1-6). West Virginia: Capito (R) 56%, Tennant (D) 33%: CBS News/New York Times poll. Solid leads in CBS New/NY Times polls: Illinois: Durbin (D) over Oberweis (R) 51%-39%; Massachusetts- Markey (D) over Herr (R) 54%-31%; New Jersey-Booker (D) over Bell (R) 51%-37%; New Mexico-T. Udall (D) over Weh (R) 53%-35%; Oregon-Merkley (D) over Wehby (R) 52%-39%.

Check back daily<http://livableworld.org/elections/2014/senate_election_2014_roundup/> to get the polling updates.


John Isaacs
Senior Fellow
Council for a Livable World & Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
322 4th Street, NE
Washington, D.C. 20002-5824
Phone: (202) 543-4100 x.2222
jdi@clw.org<mailto:jdi@clw.org>