EMAIL DETAILS

By Kyle Cheney

With Tarini Parti and Steven Shepard

STATE OF PLAY --The 11 questions that will decide the Senate, via Campaign Pro's James Hohmann: 1) South Dakota - Are the Democrats bluffing in the Badlands? 2) Arkansas - Can Tom Cotton reassure the doubters? 3) Louisiana - Will the runoff determine Senate control? 4) Alaska - Do the Natives vote? 5) Iowa - Can Democrats turn the race into a referendum on Joni Ernst? 6) Kansas - Can newcomer Greg Orman handle the heat? 7) North Carolina - Will the pizza guy play spoiler? 8) Colorado - Can Gardner keep the gender gap to single-digits? 9) New Hampshire - Are ISIL and immigration as potent as Scott Brown thinks? 10) Georgia - Will attacks on David Perdue's outsourcing break through? 11)
Kentucky - Can Alison Lundergan Grimes go three more weeks without saying if she voted for Obama?
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a5fbc64cbc228868533834a74024cf504613a126d78f5f865
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a5fbc64cbc228868533834a74024cf504613a126d78f5f865

FIRST IN SCORE: ARKANSAS AIR WARS

- Pryor hits Cotton on House votes: Arkansas GOP Senate candidate Tom Cotton has only been in the House for one term, but Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor's campaign still finds more than enough ammunition in his voting record for its latest statewide TV ad, airing ahead of today's debate. A series of people appear on the screen against a white background. "How could Tom Cotton vote to cut doctors at Children's Hospital?" asks one woman. "But vote to give billionaires huge tax breaks?" continues another. The ad is backed by six figures, the Pryor camp says. Karl Struble produces Pryor's ads.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034aeb6862b56252b3b4f414ff00df116eeed624257409565c26
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034aeb6862b56252b3b4f414ff00df116eeed624257409565c26

- Cotton slams Obama on ISIL: Cotton doesn't mention Pryor in his new ad, produced by OnMessage Inc., but criticizes President Barack Obama for underestimating the terror group's threat. "We need a Senator who will hold the president accountable and make America safer. I made tough decisions as an Army Ranger in Iraq. I'll make them again as your Senator," he says. The ad is running statewide and is backed by a six-figure buy, according to the campaign.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a2d0d9034da83d6d3b06185f60dee6547b758180522bafde5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a2d0d9034da83d6d3b06185f60dee6547b758180522bafde5

- RGA goes after Ross on Obamacare: The RGA is taking a muscular approach to Obamacare in Arkansas, calling out Democrat Mike Ross for what it describes as parroting an Obamacare talking point that turned out to be untrue: that anyone who liked their health insurance could keep it. "When Mike Ross talks Obamacare, it's the lie of the year," a narrator says. The ad is a reference to Politifact's designation of the Obama administration's claim as 2013's biggest lie. But it's also an argument that could ring hollow in Arkansas, where authorities have taken advantage of federal rules that effectively uncancel plans for at two more years.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a3f93e4e3f2dae91f7e8a700b7a631ce81d8646f09f60e116
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a3f93e4e3f2dae91f7e8a700b7a631ce81d8646f09f60e116

POPPING THIS MORNING - DSCC reports $16 million September, touts cash edge: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is reporting that the haul, its biggest-ever September total, edged the NRSC's total by $500,000 and leaves the committee with $14.2 million on hand for the home stretch. The Democratic organization has now reported raising $127.1 million this cycle, $29 million more than the GOP committee.

FIRST IN SCORE - ROUNDS UP FOUR OVER WEILAND, PRESSLER HOLDS MOST FAVORABLE IMAGE: A new survey conducted by Harper Polling found South Dakota Republican Mike Rounds leading Democrat Rick Weiland, 37-33, with independent Larry Pressler receiving 23 percent of support. The poll also found former GOP Sen. Pressler holds the most favorable image among likely voters. Fifty-five percent of respondents said they viewed him favorably, but of that percentage only 19 percent reported having a "very favorable" opinion of Pressler and 36 percent said they had a "somewhat favorable" opinion. "It's an indication that voters are intrigued by Pressler's candidacy but not yet willing to take the plunge,"
Harper Polling said in the memo. The automated telephone survey of 630 likely voters was Oct. 9 through 11. ?The margin of error is 3.9 percent. For Campaign Pro subscribers: Toplines:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034ad2be2b03d64184b8d91abc668d90637211bbb31e38e44b9c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034ad2be2b03d64184b8d91abc668d90637211bbb31e38e44b9c ; Crosstabs:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034ac7a44ae9f4dab42b2e77f84a9aa3e629a45c89b1c4af5e23
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034ac7a44ae9f4dab42b2e77f84a9aa3e629a45c89b1c4af5e23 ; Memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a8709d3cf4d16c2333e3293e924cdedc651151836b3fa3dc6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=077237f2f562034a8709d3cf4d16c2333e3293e924cdedc651151836b3fa3dc6

EXCLUSIVE - DCCC dropping three ads branding GOP as out of touch: Democrats in three hard-fought House races will get a boost today from the DCCC. The committee is out with spots on AZ-02, where Rep. Ron Barber fends off a challenge from Republican Martha McSally; CA-26, where Rep. Julia Brownley is beating back a challenge from Republican Jeff Gorell; and IA-03 where Democrat Staci Appel is battling Republican David Young. The ads all paint Republican contends as pawns of special interests. The spots - AZ-02:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34e5f60c0721cea7638ebc21637b72f1d8c753b453c6a94bf1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34e5f60c0721cea7638ebc21637b72f1d8c753b453c6a94bf1 ; CA-26:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf3403d7a80b3def2bc7d49fcab3fb1132f549d10d45b09523c2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf3403d7a80b3def2bc7d49fcab3fb1132f549d10d45b09523c2 ; IA-03:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34b97fe914335c1ac6b162fae37885376e0263d6ff469d6d3e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34b97fe914335c1ac6b162fae37885376e0263d6ff469d6d3e

- Comstock hits Foust as the "Taxman": Republican Barbara Comstock's campaign is out with a new ad in VA-10, hammering Democrat John Foust as a tax-raising ally of President Obama. The ad points to Foust's support for taxes included in Obamacare, like a levy on medical device sales. It also says he voted to raise property taxes in Virginia by 22 percent. The spot concludes with a female narrator saying, "John Foust, a tax-raising Obama Democrat we can't afford."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34c62219b26893cea951786c4ed58648877ba4f9501d4a78d8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34c62219b26893cea951786c4ed58648877ba4f9501d4a78d8

CASH RACE - Soros son goes in for Orman: Jonathan Soros, the son of billionaire financier George Soros, is among the hosts of a fundraiser on behalf of independent Kansas Senate candidate Greg Orman, a definitive sign that the younger Soros - who largely supports Democratic causes and is pushing an effort to limit the effect of money in politics - plans to go big for the political newcomer. Orman has sought to distance himself from both parties, so the event could provide fuel for Sen. Pat Roberts. The fundraiser, set for Thursday in New York City, requests donations of up to $5,200 per couple and $2,600 per person, the legal maximum.

As OFA fundraising plunges and Boehner dodges cameras in San Diego, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

Days until the election: 22

Thanks for joining us. We're eager for your news and feedback. Email us at
mailto:kcheney@politico.com
kcheney@politico.com or find us on Twitter at @
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf343a5fa476d4c496229a0d9e139b9be192868c85ab14cea12d
kyledcheney .

Want the latest on even more ads? Check out Morning Score P.M. Edition, a daily roundup of the latest television ads and developments on the campaign trail until Election Day. This includes new, exclusive TV airtime purchasing information - an added resource only for Campaign Pro subscribers.

** Pandora reaches 70 million monthly voting-age listeners, listening on average over 2 hours per day. To learn how Pandora can connect your campaign with our passionate listeners call Sean Duggan, VP Advertising (917) 403-0259 or email
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FIRST IN SCORE - Hawaii polling memo puts Ige up double digits in gov race: Democrat David Ige leads Republican Duke Aiona, earning 45 percent support to his rival's 33 percent, according to a Global Strategy Group poll for Hawaii Forward, a DGA-backed independent expenditure group. The poll gives Ige a solid lead, even with independent Mufi Hannemann drawing 10 percent support. The poll of 600 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8, suggests Hannemann draws equally from both sides, and just 10 percent of those polled still undecided. It carries a 4-percentage-point margin of error.

FIGHT NIGHT - "Ernst, Braley clash over EPA in debate," by James Hohmann from Davenport, Iowa: "Republican Joni Ernst defended her call to eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency during an Iowa Senate race debate here Saturday night, saying states should lead the way on ending pollution. She also said she would not vote to end a program that allows young undocumented immigrants to remain in the country, and expressed openness to unspecified campaign finance reforms.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34522a3d2ab088ef37889978c188505ac71e64e96231a60e3d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34522a3d2ab088ef37889978c188505ac71e64e96231a60e3d

- Snyder, Schauer debate experience in Michigan: "In an hour-long, town-hall-style face-off at Wayne State University in Detroit [on Sunday evening], [Democrat Mark] Schauer said that Republican Gov. Rick Snyder - the former CEO of Gateway Computer - shows why politics should be left to the politicians. 'We've seen the experiment of a CEO governor who doesn't really understand how to work with legislators,' he said. 'I will value the legislative body. I will spend time with them, with my sleeves rolled up.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf3461393232cbfa3b132bbc36b738998adc745d63bdf510e87a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf3461393232cbfa3b132bbc36b738998adc745d63bdf510e87a

- "Walker defends voter ID law in first debate": Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker defended his voter ID law Friday night during the first gubernatorial debate with Democratic challenger Mary Burke. Walker said that the voter ID law, which the U.S. Supreme Court just blocked from being enforced, is worthwhile if it stops one person from fraudulently casting a ballot. "It doesn't matter if there's one, 100 or 1,000," Walker said. "Amongst us who would be that one person who would like to have our vote canceled out by a vote that was cast illegally?"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf340736101c65ac60efba4e797edfb37ce1b42259382bd380b4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf340736101c65ac60efba4e797edfb37ce1b42259382bd380b4

FIRST LOOK - The North Carolina GOP is up with a new website this morning, HidingHagan.com, hitting Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan for what it describes as a series of evasions by the first-term senator.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34b54353705cbd0ec44565ebd293c3c4aabb58639ef8c4f530
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34b54353705cbd0ec44565ebd293c3c4aabb58639ef8c4f530

AIR WARS, CONT'D -"NRSC hikes TV ad buys in 6 states," by James Hohmann: "The National Republican Senatorial Committee's independent expenditure arm is in the process of increasing its television reservations by at least $7.4 million for the final three weeks before Election Day, a source familiar with the group's plans told POLITICO ... In addition to a $1 million buy in South Dakota reported by POLITICO earlier Friday evening, the NRSC is increasing its buys by $1 million in Alaska, $1.5 million in Colorado, $1.45 million in Georgia, $1.25 million in Iowa and $1.2 million in New Hampshire."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34a827d804262f674ceeb945b7df8869bf16352b23640f6a8a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6d699df29d5dcf34a827d804262f674ceeb945b7df8869bf16352b23640f6a8a

"DCCC pulls $1M in ads for Romanoff," by Alex Isenstadt: National Democrats are canceling more than $1 million of planned commercial airtime for Colorado congressional candidate Andrew Romanoff - a sign of waning confidence in his prospects."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4daa5f72fb95dac01913efc72326dc4e979dd3e67c2f17f94
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4daa5f72fb95dac01913efc72326dc4e979dd3e67c2f17f94

"Wheelchair ad roils Texas governor race," by Kevin Robillard: "Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis' latest television ad directly references gubernatorial rival Greg Abbott's partial paralysis - including the image of an empty wheelchair - to charge the Republican with hypocrisy. The spot says Abbott filed a lawsuit following the accident that led to his paralysis but then worked to limit liability to other accident victims. The Abbott campaign calls the ad a "historic low."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c42a69e83c89280cfd30352d812e8e86fddc4bdd46fa05de78
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c42a69e83c89280cfd30352d812e8e86fddc4bdd46fa05de78

THE NUMBERS - "OFA fundraising totals crash," By POLITICO's Byron Tau: Donations have slowed significantly at the nonprofit formed to support President Barack Obama's second-term agenda, with most of the small and big donor attention focused on the November midterm election. The group Organizing for Action announced its lowest quarterly haul ever on Friday - bringing in only $1.8 million in the third quarter of 2014. That's down sharply from fundraising numbers posted early in the year. OFA raised $5.9 million in the first quarter and $3.9 million in the second quarter.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4c78a381534676f5daee7a1e80cf6325364cfdeff17e93384
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4c78a381534676f5daee7a1e80cf6325364cfdeff17e93384

SHOT: "Report: Explosive charges vs. DeMaio," By Alex Isenstadt: "CNN aired an explosive report Friday further detailing allegations that Republican California congressional candidate Carl DeMaio sexually harassed and tried to bribe a former campaign staffer. The report elaborated on sensational charges and counter-charges between Todd Bosnich and his onetime boss, DeMaio, who are both openly gay. Bosnich said that DeMaio engaged in repeated and unwanted sexual behavior toward him, including grabbing his crotch and masturbating in his presence. The report aired a day before House Speaker John Boehner was scheduled to hold a fundraiser for DeMaio in California.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4cecf85dce953101610f21dfb320ec27d0a00fce2800f5921
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4cecf85dce953101610f21dfb320ec27d0a00fce2800f5921

CHASER: Boehner attended the fundraiser for DeMaio but ducked TV cameras, according to KSWB-TV in San Diego:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c425bc2765fb6231cc9e83a2ef61861fe3d9fe1af0028e920c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c425bc2765fb6231cc9e83a2ef61861fe3d9fe1af0028e920c

RACE TO NOVEMBER - "An Obamacare October surprise?" by David Nather: "Double-digit rate hikes for individual health insurance plans have become an issue in the Louisiana and Iowa Senate races over the past week, where the Republican candidates are hammering their Democratic opponents for the steep premium increases on the way next year for some customers under the Affordable Care Act ... The attacks could easily give the impression that the health care law is causing premiums to go through the roof around the country. They're not. In reality, in most states, premiums for coverage in the Obamacare health insurance exchanges for 2015 are rising at about the normal rate for health insurance
throughout the country. In some places, they're even going down."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4f9452f415bdd4b2d7de61114bec5dfa6e396b20c2c459ea9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4f9452f415bdd4b2d7de61114bec5dfa6e396b20c2c459ea9

"GOP leaders plead colleagues to help Jenkins," By Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan: "House Republican leaders are maneuvering behind-the-scenes to shore up Kansas Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins, who is suddenly battling for her political life in her Topeka area district. Senior members of the leadership have called rank-and-file lawmakers, asking them to cut Jenkins a check after internal polling showed the race tightening, with multiple sources saying the contest is within single digits. Jenkins is ahead, but by a surprisingly small margin, said the sources."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c43e785e23d24d123f30ade0975ed8835ed9395e97e4f69997
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c43e785e23d24d123f30ade0975ed8835ed9395e97e4f69997

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: ""If we had 50 Gwen Grahams in the United States Congress, it would be a different United States Congress," Bob Graham, on his daughter,a Democratic House candidate in FL-02, according to The New York Times:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4c2622502056b6d58680e1a3c73bae7eed58342b1f27bad1d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5f91377efab7e0c4c2622502056b6d58680e1a3c73bae7eed58342b1f27bad1d

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