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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The Olympics have given us relief from the meteorological and political
summer heat. This fascinating video

http://qz.com/757648/it-isnt-olympians-who-have-evolved-its-sports/

compares and contrasts Olympic achievements in the 1930's to the
present, and the progress has been stunning. Given improvements in
training and technology backed by enormous financial resources, have our
best athletes now reached the limits of human biology? And is this a
metaphor for economic achievement as well?

There seems to be growing acceptance of a new norm of slower global
growth. In our last newsletter I mentioned Northwestern economist Robert
Gordon's new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth . I had a chance
to see him last week and discuss his book. He cites an example that
traveling by air from Chicago to New York takes about the same time
today as it did in 1940, the difference being more time spent on the
ground and less in the air. I would imagine that the experience was far
more pleasant then too.

Japan is the leader of the developing world's Club of Slow Growth. In
1972, the Club of Rome famously published a report The Limits of Growth

http://www.clubofrome.org/report/the-limits-to-growth/

which explored several scenarios for the world economy, including an
exponential increase in the utilization of natural resources forecast to
result in disaster. That has not come to pass, in spite of continued
population growth worldwide. Rather what has occurred is slower trend
growth overall, and unimaginable in 1972, negative interest rates in
major economies. What does this mean for policy, markets, and for
business? It is an entirely new mindset for long-term planning.
Continued weakness in China, commodities, and recent US retail sales
underline the trend, in spite of stock market highs. We highlight some
of the most intriguing discussions about risks and opportunities below.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT GLOBAL 1. We're in a Low-Growth World. How Did
We Get Here?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/upshot/were-in-a-low-growth-world-how-did-we-get-here.html?_r=0

Neil Irwin 8/6/16 NY Times This trend helps explain why incomes have
risen so slowly since the turn of the century, especially for those who
are not top earners. It is behind the cheap gasoline you put in the car
and the ultralow interest rates you earn on your savings. It is crucial
to understanding the rise of Donald J. Trump, Britain's vote to leave
the European Union, and the rise of populist movements across Europe.

2. Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon

https://www.bis.org/publ/work574.htm

Peter Hördahl, Jhuvesh Sobrun, Philip Turner August 2016 Bank for
International Settlements Low long-term interest rates as a global
phenomenon-a new BIS working paper. 3. How Global Elites Forsake Their
Countrymen

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-global-elites-forsake-their-countrymen-1470959258

Peggy Noonan 8/11/16 WSJ Focused on Angela Merkel's decision to allow a
million refugees into German, President Reagan's speechwriter Peggy
Noonan takes a controversial stand. " From what I've seen of those in
power throughout business and politics now, the people of your country
are not your countrymen, they're aliens whose bizarre emotions you must
attempt occasionally to anticipate and manage. " Political and economic
implications. UNITED STATES 4. The Fed's shifting perspective on the
economy and its implications for monetary policy

https://www.brookings.edu/2016/08/08/the-feds-shifting-perspective-on-the-economy-and-its-implications-for-monetary-policy/

Ben S. Bernanke 8/8/16 Brookings Bernanke says watch the numbers not the
Fed participants. Because that is what they are watching. 5. U.S. Health
Care Ranked Worst in the Developed World

http://time.com/2888403/u-s-health-care-ranked-worst-in-the-developed-world/?xid=fbshare

Melissa Hellmann 6/17/16 Time Perhaps, but we need to focus our efforts
on the worst in the developing world. That is what will come back to
bite us. 6. Americans Are Skipping Obamacare So They Can Smoke

http://fortune.com/2016/07/07/smoking-surcharge-hurts-obamacare/?xid=for_fb_sh

Sy Mukherjee 7/7/16 Fortune Unintended consequences of a 50% surcharge
on insurance for smokers-- and ironic given that President Obama is a
smoker himself. 7. Review: In ‘Hillbilly Elegy,' a Tough Love Analysis
of the Poor Who Back Trump

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/books/review-in-hillbilly-elegy-a-compassionate-analysis-of-the-poor-who-love-trump.html?smid=fb-share

Jennifer Senior 8/10/16 NY Times For everyone on both sides of this
election trying to understand what is causing our deep divides here in
the US. Here is a deep dive perspective worth reading. INTERNATIONAL 8.
Russia Expert Stephen Cohen: Trump Wants To Stop The New Cold War, But
The American Media Just Doesn't Understand

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/30/russia_expert_stephen_cohen_trump_wants_to_stop_the_new_cold_war_but_the_america_media_just_doesnt_understand.html

Tim Hains 7/30/16 Real Clear Politics This is about the media more than
the candidates. Much discussed interview that unpacks allegations that
the Russians are trying to control or influence the US presidential
election. 9. BRUSSELS FURY: Massive wave of anti-EU sentiment in nations
including France and Germany

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/694998/Massive-wave-anti-EU-sentiment-nations-including-France-Germany

Caroline Wheeler 8/1/16 Express UK It is not just Great Britain. 10.
Portugal Gaining On Italy In The European Banking "Doom Loop"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-15/portugal-gaining-italy-european-banking-doom-loop

Tyler Durden 8/15/16 Zero Hedge 11. A tiny bank in Italy could decide
the future of Europe

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-tiny-bank-in-italy-could-decide-the-future-of-europe-2016-8

Harold James 8/3/16 Business Insider "If we want things to stay as they
are, things will have to change." 12. What If Saudi Arabia Collapses?

http://lobelog.com/what-if-the-state-of-saudi-arabia-collapses/

Theodore Karasik, Joseph Cozza 8/10/16 LobeLog A big, big what if.
PACIFIC 13. The Seven-Year Short

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-07/the-seven-year-short-hedge-fund-betting-on-yuan-refuses-to-quit

Bloomberg 8/7/16 Mark Hart was right about mortgage-backed securities
and Eurobonds. Is he right about China now? 14. Beyond Structural Reform
in China

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-supply-side-structural-reform-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2016-07

Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng 7/30/16 Project Syndicate Always worth reading
What's Next?

http://whatsnextbook.com

author Andrew Sheng for the best analysis of China's financial system.
15. Major Chinese state paper calls for a military strike on Australian
ships that enter the South China Sea

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/major-chinese-state-paper-calls-for-a-military-strike-on-australian-ships-that-enter-the-south-china-sea-2016-7?utm_content=buffere29a4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Greg McKenna 7/30/16 Business Insider Australia Official Chinese state
newspaper Global Times calls Australia a "paper cat" with an "inglorious
history" and threatens military action against her ships in the SCS. 16.
Monetary Policy Decision

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-18.html

Reserve Bank of Australia 8/2/2016 25 bps rate cut by Reserve Bank of
Australia was widely expected. 17. Is the BOJ just getting warmed up?

http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20160808-20160821-THINGS-COME-TOGETHER/Politics-Economy/Is-the-BOJ-just-getting-warmed-up?n_cid=NARAN11

Yoichi Takita 8/4/16 Nikkei Asian Review September could be key. 18.
At 82, Emperor Akihito of Japan Wants to Retire. Will Japan Let
Him?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/world/asia/japan-emperor-akihito-retirement.html?smid=fb-share

Jonathan Soble 8/7/16 NY Times Excellent article on the subject of the
possible abdication of Emperor Akihito. Before the 19th century, it was
common for emperors to abdicate. Against a background of Japan's aging
demographics, a slow-growth economy, and rising tensions in North Asia,
this is a delicate moment in Japanese history. 19. Gov. Koike -- I will
bring financial institutions back to Tokyo

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Gov.-Koike-I-will-bring-financial-institutions-back-to-Tokyo

Ken Moriyasu 8/8/16 Nikkei Asian Review Making Tokyo great again. TWO
STEPS FORWARD, ONE STEP BACKWARD 20. The Bandwidth Bottleneck That Is
Throttling the Internet

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-bandwidth-bottleneck-that-is-throttling-the-internet/?WT.mc_id=SA_FB_TECH_NEWS

Jeff Hecht 8/10/16 Scientific American "Digital traffic jams threaten to
throttle the information-technology revolution."

21. Bitcoin Drops Nearly 20% as Exchange Hack Amplifies Price Decline

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-drops-12-exchange-hack-amplifies-price-decline/

Charles Bovaird 8/2/16 Coin Desk ECONVUE RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS Data
Round-Up: Real Consumption on Track for +3% Gain in 16Q3

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-real-consumption-track-3-gain-16q3

Michael Lewis 08/12/16 After the three strong prior reports, retail
sales came in somewhat light. Total sales were unchanged in July (+0.2%
with revisions); the consensus was looking for +0.4%. The drop in
gasoline prices was a major drag, as expected: service station receipts
fell -2.7%. Where's the Beef? Employers Question the Value of Hospital
Mergers

https://econvue.com/pulse/where's-beef-employers-question-value-hospital-mergers

David W. Johnson 08/10/16 How healthcare service providers should
respond to negative views perceived by self-insured employers on
hospital mergers. Blockchain Watch

http://

Collin Canright 08/08/16 Insight on blockchain technology that will
change digital banking. If you would like to subscribe to our weekly
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Lyric Hughes Hale

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