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08/18/2016 08:09 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

With assistance from Daniel Lippman

GETTING NERVOUS YET? Donald Trump's allies are billing his major campaign staff shakeup as a necessary change to win in November. But privately many Capitol Hill Republicans are worried this is just the latest, and most significant sign yet, that things are in terrible shape for the GOP. The announcement "stirred yet another round of private hand-wringing among Republicans in the otherwise sleepy Capitol," reports Seung Min Kim.

"'Rearranging the deck chairs is not an effective strategy. They have to change the course,' one top aide to a conservative House Republican said Wednesday. 'Problem is not staff. The problem is with Trump.'" More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c928ab8ef67ef5827b8a06454eac0ae29872f8ba79c90d25a

Stephen Bannon's hire is also a clear snub to the GOP establishment: "Trump's new campaign boss hates-really, really, really hates-the Republican establishment. ...Under his tenure, Breitbart turned its guns on establishment Republicans like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. John McCain. Bannon himself took aim at former Republican House Speaker John Boehner, alleging he was involved in a 'scheme' for political contributions," writes Tim Mak for the Daily Beast. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c9cc42b50f081e274e57c7c63da6b1e3a36978e6d704aa051

KAINE HEADS INTO RED TERRITORY- Gabriel Debenedetti with the dispatch, new this morning: "When Tim Kaine lands in Jackson for a pair of closed-door fundraisers on Thursday, it won't be because Hillary Clinton's running mate is desperate for Wyoming's three electoral votes. The vice presidential contender's trip west to raise cash is taking him to deep-red Idaho after a Wednesday stop in Missouri and reflects the Clinton campaign's desire to plant a seed of doubt in Trump Tower about the shape of the electoral map." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c0fac329089f9ba109c24b99dca50594225ac131d8e8eb8f4

From the trail: Kaine went full Butter Cow on Wednesday, embracing the well-known 600-pound butter bovine that's an annual attraction at the Iowa State Fair. He toured the fair with Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (who was rumored to be on Clinton's shortlist for VP), making cheesy dad jokes along the way and ending his visit by munching on the famous pork chop on a stick while dodging questions from reporters about the Trump campaign shakeup. My dispatch: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6cce8f586d46924f67bea7815c17dcb13cab6e44b74aa00552

Related read: Kaine brushes off past comments about Bill Clinton affair, from Nick Gass: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6ca0f520d39f2ba820236e7c43f2d9df733e6c34a476516726

ON SECOND THOUGHT... Despite all the chaos at the top of the ticket, some senior Republicans are urging the RNC to keep funding Trump or risk a major blowout in Congress, reports Manju Raju and Deirdre Walsh for CNN. "As some former and current GOP officials are urging RNC Chairman Reince Priebus to abandon Trump and shift resources down-ticket, others say the party committee needs to prevent Trump from losing by such a large margin that it would make it virtually impossible to hang onto endangered Republican seats."

"The concerns highlight a growing split among the party establishment about how to handle their nominee as he struggles to stay competitive with Clinton in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire -- all states with GOP senators battling to hang onto their seats. Top Republicans say that if Trump loses in those states by up to 10 points or more, it could be impossible to win over enough split-ticket voters to keep control of the Senate." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c34de1941d2b9b6785d8bb9402ee582597c0847f52f39fe0d

ETHICS PROBE EXTENDED AMID SEXUAL HARASSMENT CLAIMS- The House Ethics Committee is extending its probe into claims that Rep. Mark Meadows violated House rules by continuing to pay his chief of staff several months after he was dismissed from the top job. The panel released documents Wednesday revealing that several female staffers in "Meadows' office complained that his chief of staff sexually harassed them several months before the North Carolina Republican dismissed him and paid him a severance package," reports Rachael Bade. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c6857056fbe34e441cfe55b225687cfc8f8fb995340d667c2

TRUCKING INTO THURSDAY, August 18. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. We're currently in Kansas City, Mo., the last stop for your Huddle host on what's been a whirlwind week out on the trail. Next stop: D.C. and my very comfy bed.

TODAY IN CONGRESS-The House and Senate are back in session in 19 days.

AROUND THE HILL-Sen. Ron Wyden, ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, and Sen. Chris Murphy will hold a conference call at 12:30 p.m. calling on Trump to release his tax returns. Email Ryan Carey for dial in information.

DEM DONORS TARGETED AFTER DNC HACK- "The massive data breach that drove the DNC's chairwoman out the door has now swept up the party's biggest donors too, their Social Security numbers and personal information compromised by hackers and forcing fundraisers to spend money to protect themselves," report Dan Spinelli, Edward-Isaac Dovere and Gabriel Debenedetti in a triple byline for the hometown paper.

Quote du jour: "'All my shit was hacked,' said a major donor, who has given to the Democrats for years. 'Now, I've got to have LifeLock on my 6-year-old daughter's Social Security number.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c7264b07bb25ae1dc7d35a2bfa1cf40d017c26418d781bcd7

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS PAUL RYAN? The House speaker is keeping up a hectic travel schedule, planning to touch down in 12 states by the end of this month as he helps fundraise with GOP lawmakers, reports Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson. "Team Ryan, the speaker's joint fundraising committee, reported just under $33 million in contributions for the first six months of 2016...compare that six-month haul to the money former Speaker John A. Boehner raised for his joint fundraising committee: $35.4 million over the entire two-year 2014 election cycle." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6cd154d1e0fb948e707d2927ee7fdd089e1ed3eb7252fed195

YOU DOWN WITH TPP? NOT SEN. PAT TOOMEY- The Pennsylvania Republican announced Wednesday "he will oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major trade deal pending with Pacific Rim nations, marking a stark reversal for a free-market conservative facing a difficult reelection," reports Jonathan Tamari for the Philadelphia Inquirer. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c1cceba29dd8317bc66bb6e566414a2999e94b1b9c3119f60

McCAUL DINGS CRUZ AMID SENATE RUMORS-House Homeland Security Chairman Mike McCaul may not be tipping his hand about whether he'll challenge Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 but he sure didn't pass up a chance to ding the Lone Star State's junior senator. "Asked whether he has been satisfied with Cruz's tenure in the Senate, McCaul said Cruz has "for the most part spent a lot of time running for president," the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reports. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6ce28f8b9f455931619cb6fb25ed340002da8164d589871f04

A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIENDS- Former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney is lending a helping hand to Sen. Marco Rubio, privately urging donors to support the Florida Republican in his reelection, scoops CNN's Chris Moody. "On a call to about 20 potential Rubio donors on Wednesday, Romney said that given the likelihood of victory for Hillary Clinton in November, it was important to devote financial resources toward holding seats like Rubio's to serve as a check to a Democratic president." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6c37c28be67b3d79aafeddabf8695f84e2eeb1a66534a6e7b7

And hot off the presses this a.m.: Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim): @marcorubio raises $5.5 million in the seven weeks since he launched his Senate reelection bid, campaign says.

INDIANA POLL ALERT- "Former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh - who only last month launched a carefully plotted comeback bid - has a 7-point lead over his GOP opponent, Rep. Todd Young, 48 percent to 41 percent," Steven Shepard reports on a new Monmouth University poll. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ccf48d2830630a6cca4bfd6d394e3c878d833a581d5948e821484b9e9dc34285

NOW ARRIVING-- Molly Drenkard has started as press secretary for Rep Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who represents Molly's hometown of Spokane. Previously she was at ALEC for 3 and a half years as the director of media relations and public affairs.

WEDNESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Claude Marx was the winner, first to correctly guess that former Sen. Harry Flood Byrd, a descendant of Pocahontas, was involved in the apple business.

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Claude with today's question: When President Ronald Reagan was in office, his Central American policy was limited by the amendment limiting U.S. funding for activities there. What congressman authored the amendment and as a bonus what famous what famous congressman did he share an apartment with? The first person to correctly answer gets a shout-out in tomorrow's Huddle. Email me: hcaygle@politico.com

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