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EconVue Weekly Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

July has seen a tsunami of news events. It is hard to take it all in,
even for an economic news devotee . Overall, the key theme is slow
growth. US GDP yesterday was only half what had been expected, and the
Bank of Japan used just one of its three tools to stimulate its economy.
The long term effects of both Turkey's putsch and Brexit have not been
fully taken on board by markets. Add to this the cloud of uncertainty
over US elections, increasing violence and terrorism in Europe, sticky
depressed commodity prices, a more bellicose China after the UNCLOS
ruling, and a forecast for a sustained global recovery is very hard to
support. One book that has helped to clear the fog is Robert Gordon's
brilliant new work, The Rise and Fall of American Growth

https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton/dp/0691147728

. Gordon, a professor at Northwestern and a long-standing member of our
Chicago Financial Forum, has given a historical perspective on economic
stagnation that is incredibly well researched, and incredibly well
argued. His book focuses on the reasons for America's singular
productivity growth between 1920 and 1970, and then "places
techno-optimism in perspective by arguing that the main benefits of
digitization for productivity growth have already occurred during the
temporary productivity growth revival of 1996-2004." The italics are
mine, and Gordon's conclusion calls out "a group of
headwinds—inequality, education, demography, and fiscal—that are in the
process of reducing growth in median real disposable income well below
the growth rate of productivity." A sobering conclusion. Stories in our
Spotlight This Week: Bank of Japan 1. BOJ disappoints

https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/758871061609844736

Twitter @SoberLook 7/28/16 Smaller than expected increase in Bank of
Japan purchases of ETF's. Markets and the yen are not reacting
positively. 2. A Weaker Yen is Coming: Who Are the Winners and Losers?

http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/a-weaker-yen-is-coming-who-are-the-winners-and-losers/

Anthony Fensom 7/24/16 The Diplomat 3. Emperor Will Speak to the Public
on Live TV in August

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/29/national/emperor-will-speak-public-live-tv-august/#.V5vkIWVouu5

Japan Times 7/29/16 Most probably, Emperor Akihito's abdication speech,
on August 8th. End of an era. More Stories in our Spotlight This Week 4.
Grade Hillary's and Donald's Tax Plans

https://twitter.com/BrookingsEcon/status/759403226638618628

Brookings Econ 7/30/16 Average of expert opinions gives Clinton's tax
proposals a D+ and Trump a C- in terms of impact on economic growth. For
more analysis: Full List of Hillary's Planned Tax Hikes

http://www.atr.org/full-list-hillary-s-planned-tax-hikes

John Kartch, Alexander Hendrie 7/21/16 AFTR Donald Trump Says He Had the
Biggest Tax Cuts of Any 2016 Candidate

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jul/21/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-he-had-biggest-tax-cuts-any-2016/

Louis Jacobson 7/21/16 Politifact Basically, Trump would decrease taxes
and increase the deficit, if the tax increase is not stimulative of the
economy as a whole. Clinton would increase taxes on high income earners,
and decrease the deficit. It is possible that low wage earners would
lose income if business owners offset their higher taxes by decreasing
wages. No perfect solution here. 5. What Will the 2016 Election Mean for
Iran?

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/blog/global-insight/what-will-2016-election-mean-iran?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Council&_zs=HWq6V1&_zl=MqTE3

CFR 7/28/16 A key foreign policy issue for the next US President. 6. How
Low Can Rates Go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07krycg

Martin Wolf 7/21/16 BBC Radio Podcast How central banks function in a
low-demand world. Wolf interviews a number of influential policymakers
including Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda. 7. Asian Defaults are Just
Getting Started

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-24/asian-corporate-defaults-are-just-getting-started

Christopher Langner 7/24/16 Bloomberg Is a wave of non-financial Asian
corporate bond defaults in the offing? 8. The End of Australia's
Broadband Network?

https://techpolicyinstitute.org/policy_paper/the-end-of-australias-national-broadband-network/

Ashley Benjamin 7/21/16 Tech Policy Institute Australia's national
broadband network has stalled, with important implications for the
country's future. Australia suffered two blows to its soft power this
week, the scandal over its juvenile detention units, and the withdrawal
of support by the current prime minister for the past prime minister's
bid for Secretary-General of the UN. 9. These Countries Have Suffered
the Biggest Fall in Wages Since the Financial Crisis

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/these-countries-have-suffered-the-biggest-fall-in-wages-since-the-financial-crisis?utm_content=buffer3267d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Keith Breene 7/27/16 World Economic Forum This certainly helps to
explain Brexit. Wages in the UK have fallen about 10% since 2007, the
second largest dip in the EU next to Greece. 10. Brexit: London Can
Safeguard Its Global City Status

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ba694ba-4a9f-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html?siteedition=intl#axzz4FjQxA7gb

Saskia Sassen 7/24/16 FT Given London's uncertain status following the
Brexit vote, the predictions about the effect on Hong Kong's financial
market when China was about to take over sovereignty from the British in
1997 are useful. Beijing aimed to make Shanghai China's main financial
centre. The idea was that important Hong Kong markets would migrate to
the mainland. That did not happen. Hong Kong is still China's most
international and strongest market. Shanghai, meanwhile, did expand as a
financial centre but one geared more towards domestic investors. 11.
Erdogan's Fans Ransack a Bookshop, Their Biggest Enemy.

https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/756410873955090432/video/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=lyrichues&utm_content=757236514615074816

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/countering-chinas-third-sea-force-unmask-maritime-militia-16860

Mahir Zeynalov 7/22/16 Twitter @MahirZeynalov Zeynalov's Twitter thread
documents the steady procession of perp walks by esteemed Turkish
journalists, editors, and publishers. It illustrates just how extensive
Erdogan's crackdown is, and how long it will be before civil society is
restored. 12. 'Women Should Not Laugh in Public' Says Turkey's Deputy
Prime Minister in Morality Speech

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/women-should-not-laugh-in-public-says-turkeys-deputy-prime-minister-in-morality-speech-9635526.html

Lizzie Dearden 7/29/14 Independent UK Seriously. EconVue Research and
Insights Data Round-Up: 16Q2 GDP Disappoints, But Inventory-Sales Mix
Bodes Well

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-16q2-gdp-disappoints-inventory-sales-mix-bodes-well

Michael Lewis 07/29/16 Real growth disappointed in 16Q2. Moreover, with
downward revisions in the annual benchmark, the past three quarters look
pathetic, averaging +1% growth. This is bad news, but old news. Chances
for a September Rate Hike Now Higher (Far from Sure Thing)

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/chances-september-rate-hike-now-higher-far-sure-thing

Michael Lewis 07/28/16 Today's meeting swept away anxiety about global
disruptions and reset the FOMC's clock to April. Today's statement was
upbeat, noting that 'near-term risks to the economic outlook have
diminished.' China: Learning to do Business in Latin America

https://econvue.com/pulse/china-learning-do-business-latin-america

R. Evan Ellis 07/29/16 EconVue contributor Evan Ellis is an expert in
China's investments in Latin America. For perspective on China in
Africa, Deborah Brautigam's blog China Africa the Real Story

http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/

is without equal. Elizabeth Economy has an excellent new piece on how
China's strategy in Europe is evolving post-Brexit: China's Offensive in
Europe

http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2016/07/07/podcast-chinas-offensive-in-europe/?cid=nlc-asia-eyes_on_asia-july_2016-link41-20160719&sp_mid=51934787&sp_rid=bHlyaWNAZWNvbnZ1ZS5jb20S1

. Upcoming in August: Discussion Panel: The BOJ Decision

https://econvue.com/panels/boj-decision

Nicholas Benes, Richard Katz, Robert Madsen, Lyric Hughes Hale August
2016 The BOJ's moderate decision on increased purchases of ETFs
disappointed. We invite our experts to provide their insights on this
decision. You must Login

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With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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