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Share the View 2: How Economists Fail
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share_the_view@email.bloomberg.com
DATE:
2015-03-05 17:01:42
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hbiden@rosemontseneca.com
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Share The View http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb2a9a4f214e63824aaf670a3dc17ab980669ea943e222ebbe http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb2a9a4f214e63824aaf670a3dc17ab980669ea943e222ebbe Share The View The Latest Opinions From Bloomberg View March 5, 2015 http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb2a9a4f214e63824aaf670a3dc17ab980669ea943e222ebbe bloombergview.com http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bbd1cff21b72e797e27ff0bd0c6bd371d493e0de68e2a1cd1f INVESTING A. Gary Shilling:"Copper prices are down 41 percent from their 2011 peak and probably have a lot further to go. So why are copper producers ignoring all the obvious economic signals -- lower demand, excess supply and falling prices -- and ratcheting up production?" http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb26f51f3de01e87fc402efa6f5d4a291168ab198e1bd278b8 Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb814228256e28432030dbe3ed9da607769dfddc93b635a6c0 ECONOMICS Noah Smith:"One of the biggest things that economists get grief about is their failure to predict big events like recessions. ...Maybe now, with the ascendance of empirical economics and a decline in theory, we'll see a focus on producing fewer but better theories, more unification, and more attempts to make novel predictions." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb22cfec88bb9518e35bae301619d0c0da11cc0b633a1996f6 Read more... Mark Gilbert:"With the gap between 10-year borrowing costs in Germany and the U.S. at the widest in a quarter of a century (Treasuries yielding 2.1 percent and German bunds only 0.4 percent), investors are clearly saying they see an economic rebound in America, and the risk of a recession in euro land. But the economic evidence in favor of a turnaround in the euro region is growing." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb68e659b89dc35c33f99c0bc64ca296599260da5a83ac1b4e Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb67b66c40fd03eb844e8e95d6e94e30035cc0aef34931b87d OIL Mohamed A. El-Erian:"Last summer, after an unusually long period of relative stability, oil prices embarked on a downward journey, decreasing by half in just six months. In the last few weeks, however, the market has worked on establishing a floor, enabling prices to regain some of the lost ground. Even so, they are unlikely to return to $100 a barrel soon." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb29500759c0b390dedc8f57c3941d30624af77c644ca92252 Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb11fbac6fdc9f9cf8843199f46ac3b7bba1ba5cd7dcbbc68e TRANSPORTATION Marc Champion:"Britain has sold its 40 percent stake in the high-speed Eurostar train service between London, Paris and Brussels for a healthy 757 million pounds($1.15 billion). ... Why doesn't France's state-owned SNCF sell its 55 percent stake, too?" http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb41cefce6b03d7fcbdc4b6ae62c655171046062f639641e70 Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb9e232bad549b9118eebeab8b8802d660106a1068c2fac3cb RUSSIA Leonid Bershidsky:"Perhaps it should come as no surprise that a Russian billionaire seeking to invest capital beyond President Vladimir Putin's reach and against his public advice has run into trouble. Less understandable is that the problems are being created by the British government, not Putin." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb747b00e0952a3e3f0f0811c48186517dcb2d44a9026c2422 Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bbae4a74930f5bde7b3efd047261ae0551d620d887e93d4444 CHINA William Pesek:"China's decision to lower its annual GDP growth target to 'around 7 percent' -- the lowest level in 15 years -- is understandably dominating the headlines this morning in Asia. ... It's also a useless, if not counterproductive metric." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb98ace3370a306a92654c9cf93eac9510013eaaf7dff9cae8 Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bbed847317145d8dd6e8b9fee57b5dadfb57da0a8472647cf6 HEALTH-CARE REFORM The Editors:"The U.S. pharmaceutical industry's concern about a law that let Maine residents buy prescription drugs from Canada is a little odd. There's no evidence that medicines from Canadian pharmacies pose any greater safety risk than those bought in the U.S. Yet industry trade groups last week persuaded a judge to overturn the law." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bbf5beb4a933af7e1ea1eef3f12952fe3bd812904cdad96fe7 Read more... Ramesh Ponnuru:"Opinions about the big Obamacare case the Supreme Court heard this week are highly polarized. But the court could find a way to split the difference between the conservative and liberal readings of the law -- and that might be the worst of all worlds." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb58469492f3b3d8d76bc50e26bc62950e57393e6e733d1dd6 Read more... Timothy Jost:"The chances of Obamacare surviving its latest legal challenge seem much brighter after Wednesday's oral argument at the Supreme Court." http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb1ce73e891702fb34ff30a3719bb24d9f4bc53bc3a8bb8d5d Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bbe3b5feb4d0857ab5c37fce7fd3d13710b92d936f324f5fd4 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Gilbert:"So far this year, at least 19 countries have cut their official central bank interest rates. The Federal Reserve, however, seems on track to raise its benchmark rate later this year. Is the U.S. economy really robust enough to require tighter monetary policy when the rest of the world is clearly still worried about the outlook for global growth?" http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb7cd2bee0bdd78b7b8f5b6f181800c31059cc2410feef541f Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bbb806e49f5d4f73c1180cca6ca51b57b1e563a25b6561811c NEWS ROUNDUP Jonathan Bernstein http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb2ee57fd70b31b86c97cd355cd4cf366b971b83b6b708eed2 (Read the news roundup) - John Hudak at Brookings on weed in the 2016 presidential election: http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb08c6872e05ca2ee39625e5e69a6f3dc8f945d851934bca57 Read more... - Good analysis of Benjamin Netanyahu's speech from Dan Drezner at the Washington Post: http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=ffc577775e16d6bb8801c3496ece6cace5a70288a30496b5fce92bfc63a01fac Read more... - Dahlia Lithwick at Slate wraps up what happened at the Supreme Court yesterday in the Obamacare case. http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c37532862685fb55f1c457f223931fcea816a97c6268700bc6c7f Read more... Barry Ritholtz http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c37535b62e3af47b8f2976b832584c4d9d04a4ef6db0f37dda768 (Read the news roundup) - Janet Yellen, forecasting ace: http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753ca55ca7b58f0362f389291794f0e3c257e9f28ec9efc21ab Read more... - U.S. companies are stashing $2.1 trillion overseas to avoid taxes: http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753a4d18787658e5d03ebc14c3acd6a0228898695131ef08c0b Read more... - No, the banks aren't losing: http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c375372eaca3a09010db290703f8b5f621436aa8904c79bf75529 Read more... Katie Benner http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c37533b5a8146359264a455e41ad6561a9ccaed9260dc6f532fec (Read the news roundup) - Who would have thought the unglamorous Etsy, the online marketplace for arts and crafts, would put the New York tech scene back on the map? http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c375334d26d203126fb26244fe49558e8a3de94ca30810ff62a08 Read more... - AlchemyAPI, an artificial intelligence startup, was bought by IBM to improve the company's Watson analytics software, Bloomberg reports. http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753010efea680be01db9dd48516edb7883ece3e49d7d93e4aa4 Read more... - Lyft drivers who were hoping for $1,000 referral bonuses may be in for a disappointment, reports GigaOm. http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753f6d5eac0d10cedbf375889c4401194fd83d029fb54f7fd88 Read more... http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c37538321f9e5e2802561027257f6876f558198acccc19ac362e7 http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753a22a0cb82e09823ba4fffdba569720cac82a0252240cd4e5 http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c37537c921769d41f20ee13940aaa51a59d346ea8bdae17382921 http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753b20e223ea257a8afb75f21eaa633f9e4194fc55731a6b931 http://click.email.bloomberg.com/?qs=0ce1773f8e5c3753f03c38ad45b39e33ffadeb4753e5da7c162788dc64b8a190 For more information, email mailto:view@bloomberg.net view@bloomberg.net . 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