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08/31/2018 07:59 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

With an assist from Elana Schor

DECISION TIME -- Republicans are preparing for a round of political triage, as Alex Isenstadt puts it, determining which House incumbents will receive support and which members are on their own. "GOP officials say as many as 45 Republican-held seats are at serious risk, making it impossible to salvage each one in the costly scramble to protect the party's 23-seat majority -- especially those members who have waged sluggish campaigns and posted lackluster fundraising totals," he writes. Polling is already underway to decide which incumbents may be beyond rescue. Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) and Rod Blum (R-Iowa) are among the list of incumbents most in jeopardy of
being cut off.

Party officials say lawmakers in that category have refused to heed the party's repeated warnings about the treacherous conditions this cycle. NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) warned members during a House GOP Conference meeting this spring not to expect the party to bail them out deep into the campaign if they failed to pull their own weight. But some GOP strategists say the party failed to take seriously the notion that typically safer seats could be in jeopardy this fall and is now scrambling to protect those redder districts by diverting resources from swing districts. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff67100786fa246c4118f90aa3ec0c9936c785fd9a99b3b6e93e11c181e9d31bb3a96f366444d3a74a

Related: "Kochs unveil list of backed House candidates," by The Associated Press' Steve Peoples: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff19461ec80fffd97532e522d64c7a6332859e67eeffaa375a6fff7e22ae0d09914e1b61dc5cd5068f and "DCCC surpasses online fundraising total from 2016," from Scott Bland: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ffc990bb340b15101807faef9723d06d622cda59335bf5724fd6cd51738f29373029278c464be67d11

FROM WITCH HUNT TO ILLEGAL -- Attention Senate Republicans: President Donald Trump says Attorney General Jeff Sessions' job is safe through the midterms but that special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia is "illegal." In an Oval Office interview with Bloomberg News, the president said he "would love to have [Sessions] do a great job" and would "love to have him look at the other side," referring to future investigations into Democrats like Hillary Clinton. "I do question what is Jeff doing," the president added.

Trump wouldn't say whether he would comply with a subpoena. In his view, the president continued, the Mueller probe is an "illegal investigation" because "great scholars" have said "there never should have been a special counsel." Trump has long blasted Sessions over his recusal from the Russia probe, which led to the appointment of a special counsel. While Senate GOP leaders have continued to back Sessions, some key lawmakers have signaled an openness to confirming a new attorney general after the midterms. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff1505e8034741c60332a25ab86e67e0559abf559240ef60b914ad0175859392977c4b23b7015a07b7

TRUMP'S MESSAGE TO HOUSE DEMS -- The president is skeptical that House Democrats could impeach somebody who's doing "a great job." And he has news for House Dems: "I'm doing a great job." Trump argued that impeaching him would endanger all future presidents who serve with the opposition party in control of the House. "Republicans have tried to frame the November elections as a decision about whether Democrats will be able to impeach Trump," Bloomberg's John Micklethwait, Jennifer Jacobs and Margaret Talev write. "While Democratic leaders have largely avoided talking about impeachment, some Democratic candidates and outside groups have dangled the prospect of removing the president from
office to help boost turnout in the election."

Democrats need to flip 23 seats to win back the House. In the Senate, Republicans have a 50-49 advantage until the late Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) replacement is sworn in. Plus, Senate Democrats -- and independents who caucus with them -- are defending 26 seats this fall, including 10 in states Trump won in 2016. Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House, but conviction would require a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate, meaning several Republicans would have to join Democrats to remove the president from office over "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ffd0d2afc0ac09a3502b907f0c1ab0db13a3833ceb55190f3a89e5d96828257694de45577fee4f6a9d

Related read: "Here Are All the Highlights From Trump's Oval Office Interview," via Bloomberg News: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff4cb277587555197a846222bbb12a0949b842ab9f7a120195d028180622f73862a68fd5353fd05854

HAPPY FRIDAY! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Aug. 31.

THURSDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Talking Point Memo's report on Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Va.) personally calling a constituent to pressure her to withdraw her claim that his reelection campaign forged voters' signatures was the winner.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Huddle will not publish Monday in honor of Labor Day but will return to your inboxes Tuesday.

DIFFERENCE OF OPINION -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told CBS News that the president's handling of Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) death was "disturbing." Trump tweeted brief condolences after McCain died in lieu of releasing a statement praising the late senator as a hero. He drew backlash for raising the White House flag after flying it at half-staff for only a day, prompting a reversal and a White House statement acknowledging McCain's service. "It bothers me greatly when the president says things about John McCain," Graham said. "It pisses me off to no end. And the way he handled the passing of John is just -- it was disturbing." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff0ce8e3c7451735e9dfbf2a559e0299e8ee4404be88e9bdc14c910987cee0f3ac89dd8c4acfbd514e

Trump, however, has a different opinion. He insists he didn't miss a chance to unite the country and made no mistakes with his handling of McCain's death. "No, I don't think I did at all," he told Bloomberg. Trump acknowledged the "very strong disagreements" he had with McCain but reiterated that he respects the Arizona Republican's service. "I disagreed with many of the things that I assume he believed in," Trump said. "I respect his service to the country." He refused to say whether McCain would have made a better president than Barack Obama but joked that press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders was "having a nervous breakdown" over his response. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff86dfee75d75fd22b71a1c556bbb9a045de41c8fa53ee4b6bceb38e83779d55278f224176ba705eaa

Related: "While Washington mourns McCain, Trump leaves town," by Lorraine Woellert: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff711aa8576eaa2186706d1f4c69816dcb554764163052d51aecaa94645fcaf4fbc3f974ef4219ca9b

NOT INVITED -- Trump isn't the only notable name missing from the guest lists of McCain's services. Even some of his closest campaign aides -- and his running mate, Sarah Palin -- are excluded from the proceedings. "Three of the most prominent members of his 2008 presidential campaign -- campaign manager Steve Schmidt, senior adviser Nicolle Wallace and longtime strategist John Weaver -- were not invited to any of McCain's services," Eliana Johnson reports. Their exclusion, she writes, "is a quiet acknowledgment of an unhappier chapter of his life" and an "indication that ... McCain and his family still resent the fallout from the senator's decision to choose the former Alaska governor as
his vice presidential running mate." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff3d560c7f18eeb3407dc6c4bd1090fa2a249becfd36a980dd310e41a1284ace31b9137e41ed4f0d88

SEIZING MCCAIN'S MAVERICK MANTLE -- Reps. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are running to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.). Yet it's McCain who will be at the center of the race when candidates resume campaigning next week. "McSally, a former fighter pilot, emphasized her shared biography with McCain in her primary night victory speech on Tuesday," James Arkin reports. And Sinema "has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain's distinctive legislative style -- a bipartisan-focused 'independent voice' who, like McCain, would 'put country over party,' she said."

"It's a sharp departure from other Senate campaigns around the country that have revolved around President Donald Trump," Arkin notes. "McCain, though, has proven himself as a worthy model in Arizona, where the remembrances following his death Saturday have refocused the state on the qualities that carried McCain to double-digit victories in every Senate race he ran." It's McSally who can draw the clearest line between herself and McCain, but Democrats say her approach to politics diverges sharply from McCain's. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ffad06ed47c680463967682ac92a972750acd60feaf0a999444941975ba1b827ee4fd41c3873f3a94e

The Washington Post profiled Sinema, who once lived in a shuttered country store and gas station. From Amy Gardner, Sean Sullivan and Alice Crites: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff258bbdee578e571e1c017062a037a1bb205ce084c8b942c77e32421e6fafa60f1153275c32734754

INTERESTING TIMING -- Just ahead of Labor Day weekend, the president announced in a letter to congressional leaders the cancellation of across-the-board pay raises for civilian workers across the federal government, citing the "nation's fiscal situation" -- months after the president signed into law a $1.5 trillion tax-cuts bill in December. "We must maintain efforts to put our nation on a fiscally sustainable course, and federal agency budgets cannot sustain such increases," Trump wrote. Under the policy, roughly 1.8 million people wouldn't get an automatic pay increase next year, including Border Patrol and ICE agents.

"That stance puts vulnerable GOP lawmakers representing northern Virginia -- home to tens of thousands of federal workers -- in the political crosshairs," Sarah Ferris and Ian Kullgren report. "And it sets up an all-but-certain funding fight with Congress next month, as party leaders attempt to reach a sweeping agreement to keep the government open before the start of the next fiscal year on Oct. 1." While the Senate has backed a 1.9 percent raise for civilian federal employees this year, House Republicans have approved a spending bill that endorses the White House's freeze. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff175f06c51cee00c3bfd71d7b6e4362ba764eea1575a22c96fefd7d14e3feba59458a3c4c48af1cbb

KAVANAUGH PREPS FOR HEARINGS -- Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh participated in his last full mock trial session Monday. Inside a large office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, Kavanaugh took questions from aides who role-played key members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, mimicking their style of questioning throughout a daylong practice session. "The mock hearing room has been outfitted with a dais, nametags, microphones and a clock with red and green lights meant to keep his answers within the allotted time limit," Andrew Restuccia, Elana and Lorraine Woellert report. "The sessions ... have also featured faux protesters to make sure Kavanaugh stays cool in the event of
a midhearing outburst."

A White House official says Kavanaugh's former clerks, Federalist Society lawyers and GOP senators have participated in nearly a dozen practice sessions. Those senators include Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Rob Portman (Ohio), Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Orrin Hatch (Utah). The White House will have two war rooms: one near the committee room staffed with administration officials, Senate leadership aides and Judiciary Committee staff and another in Vice President Mike Pence's Senate office. Opening statements from committee members will begin Tuesday, followed by two full days of questioning Wednesday and Thursday with witness testimony on Friday. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff3e6d61ec279aba0819f660d9b0f18a7f1c609bd3e3c1b48f1f6ff0dc711fcff46acf3671677408d0

Related reads: "Former Nixon counsel John Dean to be witness opposed to Kavanaugh nomination to Supreme Court," from The Washington Post's Michael Kranish: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff803deebd75dfde7db7b5e10e6c92d613ff6bbf2b29ebac01f84cc059d321893271ab965e58dcc1ee and "Grassley raises questions about Dem access to restricted Kavanaugh records," per Elana: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ff46c4ca2c50af3948640e23568816e4831aad6872445cc2066cb3e353998c53d87270d766a5bb8c4a

NARAL AIMS NEW SCOTUS AD AT COLLINS -- The abortion-rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America is launching a new six-figure ad campaign today appealing to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a key swing vote in the Kavanaugh confirmation battle, and focusing on the Supreme Court nominee's potential to chip away at Roe v. Wade. The ad features a Maine woman who voted for Collins sharing her personal experience of obtaining an abortion while in an abusive relationship and is set to keep airing through Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings next week, including TV and digital appearances. The ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=01c5626502a587ffe2f1e0e3a2a1cb4e58b5aaa3bbca3a5db32c69eb48517e7d8de9875cf85ae201f4b76bc284e9a113

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.

AROUND THE HILL -- Vice President Mike Pence, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will participate in a ceremony to honor the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the rotunda at 11 a.m. At the conclusion of the ceremony, a Capitol Hill Guard of Honor will preside over a public viewing at 1 p.m. as McCain lies in state for the remainder of the day.

THURSDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Frank Aiello was first to correctly guess that 2016 is the last time the congressional baseball game ended with a walk-off. Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.) hit the game-winning single.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Frank: Who was the first Arizonan to have the honor of lying in state in the U.S. Capitol, and when was it? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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