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The Evening: Iran’s Warning, Hack Attack, Take It Easy and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Wednesday, August 22nd.

Note: The Evening will be “gone fishin’” on August 23.


** Iran’s Warning
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Iran warned today it would hit U.S. and Israeli targets if it were attacked by the United States after President Donald Trump’s security adviser said Washington would exert maximum pressure on Tehran going beyond economic sanctions, as Reuters’ Bozorgmehr Sharafedin and Dan Williams report (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa/iran-threatens-to-hit-u-s-israel-after-trump-aide-warns-of-maximum-pressure-idUSKCN1L70GC?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789 ) .

And, the Trump administration is looking to ratchet up pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear program, going beyond previous international sanctions, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said today, as the Wall Street Journal’s Felicia Schwartz reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-vows-to-grant-few-waivers-on-iran-sanctions-1534936567?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .


** Afghan Progress
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Even after a string of deadly Taliban attacks in Afghanistan in recent months, the outgoing commander of U.S. and international forces there insisted today that President Donald Trump’s strategy of an open-ended deployment was making progress as Reuters Idrees Ali and Jonathan Landay report (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan/u-s-general-sees-progress-in-afghanistan-despite-mounting-taliban-attacks-idUSKCN1L71Z3?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “The Conflicting Assessments of the Trends in Combat in Afghanistan: 2014-2018 (https://www.csis.org/analysis/conflicting-assessments-trends-combat-afghanistan-2014-2018?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman.

“A Year On, Pakistan Still the Weak Link in U.S. South Asia Strategy (https://www.cfr.org/blog/year-pakistan-still-weak-link-us-south-asia-strategy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) ,” by CFR’s Alyssa Ayres.


** Hack Attack
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The Democratic National Committee has reported to law enforcement an attempted hack on its voter database, amid intensifying fears of online campaigns to manipulate the US midterm elections, as the
FT’s Hannah Kuchler and Courtney Weaver report (https://www.ft.com/content/d0fa1170-a631-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s James Lewis testified yesterday before the Senate Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Crime and Terrorism “Cyber Threats to Our Nation’s Critical Infrastructure (https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/congressional_testimony/180820_Jim_Lewis_Testimony_Senate%20_Judiciary.pdf?ttyT5BaATXRHEMBd1V0M6EVlBmucQrBj&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .”


** Grave Concern on NK
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A new report from the UN's nuclear watchdog expresses "grave concern" that North Korea is continuing to develop its nuclear program, despite the regime's commitment to work towards denuclearization following June's summit in Singapore, as CBS News reports (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iaea-north-korea-report-grave-concern-over-continuation-of-north-koreas-nuclear-program/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .


**
Handshake Deal
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The Trump administration is planning to formally announce on Thursday that it has reached a breakthrough in NAFTA talks with Mexico, clearing the way for Canada to rejoin negotiations to modernize the free trade pact, as Politico’s Megan Cassella and Sabrina Rodriguez report (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/21/trump-nafta-mexico-746332?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .

And, as CNBC reports (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/trump-administration-reportedly-to-announce-nafta-handshake-deal-with-mexico-thursday.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) , the U.S. is near an informal NAFTA deal with Mexico, though a Mexican official said all three sides would need to be present on a handshake.

Dive Deeper: Check out “The Trade Guys (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trade-guys/id1380336613?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) ,” a CSIS podcast.


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** Enroll for Fall
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Now enrolling for the Fall, CSIS & Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs offer a new Executive Master's in International Relations. Information here (https://www.csis.org/programs/abshire-inamori-leadership-academy/executive-education/executive-masters-international?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 652
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Facebook deleted 652 pages, linked to three Iranian and one Russian disinformation campaigns, that had been followed by hundreds of thousands of accounts.
Source: FT (https://www.ft.com/content/387df03c-a5a1-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789)


** Critical Quote
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** "We’re very concerned as we look at the military situation and we want to be unmistakably clear to Assad that we expect there will be no use of chemical weapons or biological weapons if there are any additional military hostilities in Idlib."
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— U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton


** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
This week, CSIS's Trade Guys sat down with with Cody Lusk, president and CEO of the American International Automobile Dealers Association, to discuss the Trump Administration's announcement that it would delay its decision on levying tariffs on auto imports this week. For more on what this means for the auto industry, listen to the latest podcast episode, "Only as Good as the Next Tweet (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trade-guys/id1380336613?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) ."

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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Die Welt
(Photo credit: Joe Robbins/Getty Images). Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens. Just because.


** Recommended Reading
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“The Next Big Bet in Fracking: Water (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-big-bet-in-fracking-water-1534930200?mod=hp_lead_pos5&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) ,” by the
WSJ’s Christopher Matthews.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 9:00 a.m. (https://www.sais-jhu.edu/events-calendar/events/democratic-republic-congo-citizen-involvement-and-prospects-peaceful?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) , The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS); Search for Common Ground; and Counterpart International, will hold a discussion on the "Democratic Republic of Congo - Citizen Involvement and Prospects for Peaceful Elections."

And at 2:00 p.m. (https://www.eventbrite.com/e/afghanistan-17-years-on-registration-48967897299?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) , The Hudson Institute will hold a discussion on "Afghanistan: 17 Years On."


** Video
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Projections for peak global oil demands range from as early as 2025 to as late as 2040 and beyond. What’s driving this uncertainty? CSIS’s Energy and National Security Program unpacks the four factors that could impact the future of oil demand. Watch the video here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukTKnouWER8&t=11s&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .


** Podcasts
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Die Welt
Trade experts Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch break down the buzz around trade, how it affects policy, and how it impacts your day-to-day. The Trade Guys is hosted every week by H. Andrew Schwartz.

Listen on SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/sets/the-trade-guys?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) or Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-trade-guys/id1380336613?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789) .


** Smiles
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You didn’t think I would forgo the opportunity to play an Eagles encore from the best-selling album (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDdjZWn8l3g&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789 ) of all time, did you?
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=6f511bfa6b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_08_22_04_36&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-6f511bfa6b-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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