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By Alexander Burns (
mailto:aburns@politico.com
aburns@politico.com ) and James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com )

FIRST IN SCORE - MCDONNELL'S ARSENAL - Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell raised $1.53 million for his Opportunity Virginia PAC in the second quarter of the year, finishing June with nearly $3 million stockpiled for the off-year elections in his home state. The Virginia legislative elections are expected to feature a pitched battle for control of the state Senate: Democrats currently hold 22 of the chamber's 40 seats. If the Republicans flipped control, it would be the second time since Reconstruction that the state had a GOP governor and an all-Republican legislature - potentially giving McDonnell an extraordinarily strong hand for the second half of his term. Phil Cox, McDonnell's senior
political adviser, predicted the governor's fundraising would help him lead the Virginia GOP into the fall: "This strong continued financial support is reflective of Governor McDonnell's strong record of results: expanding jobs and opportunity; reducing the size of government; and making historic investments in transportation and higher education. The strong financial position of the Governor's PAC will allow him to support candidates this fall for the Virginia House of Delegates and State Senate who support his positive jobs and opportunity agenda."

POPPING THIS MORNING - MATSDORF TO AMERICAN BRIDGE - The Democratic super PAC American Bridge will announce today that Ty Matsdorf, the communications director for Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal, is joining the group as war room director and senior adviser. Matsdorf was a senior aide to Blumenthal's 2010 campaign, and prior to that served as communications director for Montana Sen. Max Baucus. The American Bridge war room is shaping up to be a key staging ground for Democratic opposition research and rapid response in 2012, and American Bridge president Rodell Mollineau said Matsdorf has the "skills, experience and strategic instincts" to manage that effort. "If I was a Republican
running for office, Ty would be the last person I'd want managing a war room against me," Mollineau said.

SENATE EXCLUSIVE - MANCHIN KEEPS PACE - West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin brought in $516,000 during the second quarter of 2011 and now has $1.3 million on hand for his first reelection campaign. The $516,000 figure is approximately the same dollar amount the Democrat raised during the first three months of the year, putting Manchin on track to outraise the $4.4 million he took in for last year's special Senate election. Almost all of Manchin's receipts last quarter appear to have gone directly into his campaign account, with very little spent on the way. Manchin still has no opponent for 2012, when his seat comes up for a full six-year term.

As Rick Perry keeps calling long distance, Newt Gingrich declines to pledge and Allen West resumes his astonishing fundraising pace, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

ELECTION DAY IN CALIFORNIA - HAHN LEADS: Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn heads into today's special election with an 8-point lead over Republican Craig Huey, according to a Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Daily Kos and the SEIU. With low turnout expected in a politically ambivalent district, Democrats are taking extra precautions to hold the coastal House seat long represented by Jane Harman: In the last 19 days, the DCCC, OFA and the California Democratic Party have made 373,697 live calls to the district for GOTV purposes. Hahn will be off the trail today after voting this morning, due to the death of her mother. More to watch from CA-36 here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d898ba5ceb766902967c663706296a24deeeb954015932f4531
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d898ba5ceb766902967c663706296a24deeeb954015932f4531

AS WISCONSIN VOTING BEGINS - DLCC ATTACKS: Wisconsin kicks off its five-week string of recall elections tonight, with a set of primaries that will choose Democratic challengers for six recalled Republican state senators. And as voters go to the polls, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is training its firepower on GOP state Sen. Randy Hopper, blasting the Republican with an ad calling him "out of touch with folks back home." The commercial shows a woman speaking to the camera as two young girls play behind her. "I guess I'm like ever mom; I want to make sure that my kids get a really good education," she explains. "I can't understand how Sen. Hopper thinks it's ok to cut nearly
$800 million from our schools. Politicians like Randy Hopper always say there's no money - but he found a way to give tax breaks to rich corporations and rich folks like himself." Democrats would have to pick up three state Senate seats to flip control of the chamber. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356ecb570793691f0fd6c27a7c102fdbafd60a39ca5d237567a ; read more on the start of recall season:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d8947f210d2110689d9f7e0b7299688b51205f84e3c9db18a5a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d8947f210d2110689d9f7e0b7299688b51205f84e3c9db18a5a

DEFAULT LINE - POLL SHOWS RISING FEARS - Forty-two percent of Americans now say they see 'greater risk in a potential default stemming from not raising the debt limit,' marking a 7-point jump in the latest Washington Post-Pew Research Center poll. There are still more Americans -- 47 percent -- who say they are more concerned about raising the debt ceiling, but that number is steady. The Post's Jon Cohen highlights the really important number: 'In late May, independents sided more with the GOP concerns, but it is about evenly split: 46 percent of political independents are mainly concerned with raising the debt ceiling; 45 percent with not doing so.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d893ecc944975559e0b51bf3a950c80c37007715e7eda4affed
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d893ecc944975559e0b51bf3a950c80c37007715e7eda4affed

OBAMA'S THEORY OF THE CASE - BALZ EXPLAINS: "The president's advisers have kept their focus on political independents, who they think are sick of gridlock in Washington and willing to reward politicians who step outside pure partisanship to solve the country's problems. Democratic strategists think Republicans have misplayed the debt-ceiling negotiations to the point that, almost no matter the outcome, Obama can claim the high ground." POLITICO's Glenn Thrush and Carrie Budoff Brown: "[Said] a senior Democratic aide, 'He's got the high ground. He's the adult in the room. He's looking good right now.' Democrats view Obama's proposed $4 trillion deficit-cutting deal, panned by lawmakers in
both parties as too unpalatable to pass, as a win-win politically for the president." What happens next, per the W.H. guidance: '[I]n the afternoon, the President and the Vice President will meet with Congressional Leadership in the Cabinet Room to discuss the ongoing efforts to find a balanced approach to deficit reduction. This meeting is closed press.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d89b66166369d78ddf9b4a5571661cc327f4bbda13c3d720828
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d89b66166369d78ddf9b4a5571661cc327f4bbda13c3d720828

2012 TALKER - AN OPENING FOR CHRISTIE - Fresh polling data from the Iowa Republican website shows that Chris Christie could shake up the GOP field if he jumps into the presidential race, though Christie continues to insist that he won't. An alternative ballot offered GOP voters the chance to pick Christie, Sarah Palin, Rick Perry or Rudy Giuliani as their 2012 caucus choice. Christie drew 13 percent support, versus 18 percent for Mitt Romney and 15 percent for Michele Bachmann. Other non-candidates fared more modestly: Palin and Herman Cain were tied at 7 percent and Perry tied with Tim Pawlenty at 6 percent. The survey was taken June 26-30 by Voter/Consumer Research.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d89b2f0e27a2b51b92539227b07290b7b676ccf80314e740386
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d89b2f0e27a2b51b92539227b07290b7b676ccf80314e740386

WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Rick Santorum has three events in South Carolina, starting with an 8:30 a.m. breakfast speech to Myrtle Beach women. Newt Gingrich participates in a town hall meeting hosted by the Charleston tea party. Get more details from our 2012 tracker:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d89d3a84458f64f035938fca0ec52b24ef2ff7d486c99515358
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=edbe5cf706427d89d3a84458f64f035938fca0ec52b24ef2ff7d486c99515358

PERRY'S OUTREACH CONTINUES: The governor of Texas continues to phone top Republicans in early primary states, telling Iowa Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds that "he looked forward to seeing (her) soon," according to the AP. He has placed calls to New Hampshire and was told by former GOP Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne that the 2012 race is wide open. "I have the impression that he's in the process of making a decision. Obviously he's quite serious about it," Lamontagne said. Full story from Steve Peoples:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356e7c5089861579a0ff2dfefa08a43f8e961b3363ecb479431
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356e7c5089861579a0ff2dfefa08a43f8e961b3363ecb479431

SCRUTINY TIME - ABC INVESTIGATES MARCUS BACHMANN'S CLINIC - ABC News ran a story last night featuring undercover video of a center run by Michele Bachmann's husband, showing a counselor there saying that it's "possible" to become "totally free" of gay feelings. The report represents a significant milestone in taking rumors about "de-gaying" activities at the Bachmann facility from left-leaning blogs into the mainstream media. Maggie Haberman explains: "The 'World News' report included an interview with a former patient at the clinic, who told the ABC reporter that he'd been sent there when he was 17 years old to try to 'change' him...The reports - denied repeatedly by the Bachmanns - have
been circulating for years." Haberman's take:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356ef523b9b27bcfe3671af4cec0baf23b92f13e0eb86adbc77
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356ef523b9b27bcfe3671af4cec0baf23b92f13e0eb86adbc77 ; the ABC package:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356107084ff6a31f0d67e1fe50a169ab45ff769b250ace271a8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356107084ff6a31f0d67e1fe50a169ab45ff769b250ace271a8

NO PLEDGE FOR NEWT: The former House speaker said he won't put his name on a controversial pledge organized by an Iowa social conservative group, the Family Leader. Gingrich reportedly broke the news to activist leader Bob Vander Plaats during his Monday appearance at a Family Leader event. Hotline: "[Gingrich spokesman R.C.] Hammond declined to mention what parts of the pledge Gingrich specifically objected to, saying only that it needed 'across the board' changes. The spokesman did say the marriage vow needed to be shortened." The pledge - which only Bachmann and Santorum have signed - has already been revised to remove incendiary language about slavery.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356f9e8e2a9847b5e97e345aca639214deb94a9fe9d8e5e16c2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356f9e8e2a9847b5e97e345aca639214deb94a9fe9d8e5e16c2

MINNESOTA SHUTDOWN, DAY 12 - MARK DAYTON'S ROAD TRIP - Another day has gone by with no progress toward ending the Minnesota shutdown, as both sides held press conferences to (again) criticize the other. Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton announced he'll go on a road trip around the state to take his case directly to the voters: He'll speak in St. Cloud today and Rochester, Winona, Albert Lea and Moorhead later this week. But the Star Tribune reports that GOP leaders are not poised to give Dayton a proposal for resolving the shutdown, and when the governor was asked how long this could continue, he joked: "My term expires on January 5th of two thousand ..." - before trailing off.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356029923516126666ddfd863757563d71f1f300aabb1d8cfab
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Q2 MONEY TICKER - More returns from the period ending June 30: Florida tea party Rep. Allen West posted a headline-grabbing $1.5 million quarter ... Former Florida Sen. George LeMieux raised $950,000, leading the GOP Senate primary field for the quarter ... Iowa Rep. Tom Latham raised $589,000, giving him $1.5 million on hand for a redistricting-fueled battle with Rep. Leonard Boswell ... Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill took in $1.4 million ...
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356f02cec3f85f2cd163a7bcbaf30c3e351ad90d32ca8369089
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356f02cec3f85f2cd163a7bcbaf30c3e351ad90d32ca8369089

GRAYSON RETURNS - BUT WHERE? Former Florida Rep. Alan Grayson confirmed to POLITICO last night that he'll attempt to return to Congress in 2012. What he's less sure about is which House seat he'll run for. "People understood we need a congressman with guts," the liberal firebrand said. "There needs to be some Democrat who's willing to tell it like it is, and I don't see a lot of people doing it nationally." Grayson told Alex Isenstadt that his exact plans are still up in the air, but "he said he believed there would be a new, Democratic-oriented seat based in Orlando that would be a target."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356092861bc6937dbfc8bb424c8e4403af2d40f849ee1b538dd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c42356092861bc6937dbfc8bb424c8e4403af2d40f849ee1b538dd

THE OFF YEAR - RGA ATTACKS IN KENTUCKY: The Republican Governors Association launched a television ad yesterday in the Bluegrass State, attempting to tie Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to President Obama. Beshear currently holds a wide lead over GOP challenger David Williams, the state Senate president, but some Republicans believe the current numbers are soft. The RGA ad argues that "Kentucky's heading in the wrong direction," while Williams will "fight Obama's job-killing policies." Here's the spot:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c423569ee0fcc4fc12af622eb46c77a626e8748f7c080ba16a400b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c423569ee0fcc4fc12af622eb46c77a626e8748f7c080ba16a400b

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't think the DNC's going to ask me to do these anymore." - South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Dick Harpootlian, after using some ... colorful language to criticize Jon Huntsman on a state party conference call
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c423560f64c8504eeb32afe5dd00b02388697fb69880231aeb1c02
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2f4c318e23c423560f64c8504eeb32afe5dd00b02388697fb69880231aeb1c02

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