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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ) and Alexander Burns (
mailto:aburns@politico.com
aburns@politico.com )

FIRST IN SCORE - RESURGENT REPUBLIC FINDS DARKENING MOOD - Independents, Hispanics and other swing voters may be running out of patience with President Barack Obama and the pace of economic recovery, according to a new set of data collected in focus groups by the GOP polling outfit Resurgent Republic. In four battleground focus groups held last month, Resurgent Republic found that voters "were unanimous in their overwhelmingly negative descriptions of the economy, and unlike our focus groups a year ago, these voters could not see an end to the nation's economic decline," according a memo from former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie and pollsters Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez. But voters differ on
who to blame for the weak economy: Independents "did not hold President Obama primarily responsible," the memo states, while "Hispanic voters were more likely to say President Obama made the economy worse, joining Republicans and Tea Party voters."

MORE - OBAMA'S WEAK POINTS - It's not just the economy where the president has to contend with deep and growing skepticism from some important voting blocs. Participants in the Resurgent Republic study generally agreed that Obama "has made the national debt worse" and were unsympathetic to arguments for raising the debt ceiling. And while the "intensity" of voters' focus on the health care law has lessened, the perception that the Affordable Care Act is "complicated and bureaucratic" remains. The Resurgent Republic data was gathered from focus groups in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida and Colorado. Stay tuned for the full readout ...

BREAKING OVERNIGHT - CROSSROADS AIR WAR EXPANDS- POLITICO's David Catanese scoops: "American Crossroads is pivoting to the second phase of its national advertising campaign Friday, adding a specific focus on a handful of battleground Senate and House races, POLITICO has learned. The $7 million two-week multi-ad rollout will run on national cable, network and local affiliates, targeting 11 states and is being billed as an 'advocacy campaign on runaway government spending' as the debt ceiling debate reaches its apex. A pair of 30 and 60-second spots, which will specifically zone in on President Obama, will broadcast in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia -- all
swing states carried by the first-term Democratic incumbent in 2008 ... Additional state specific-ads will focus on Sens. Jon Tester in Montana, Bill Nelson in Florida, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Ben Nelson in Nebraska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio." Read on and see some of the ads here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=082e63faa528b1d9caba8fb798bbd101e1b72a0c77e55d607f000ae3f3ea89d4
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HOURS AWAY - THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN POLITICS? The monthly unemployment report is due out at 8:30 a.m., offering the latest snapshot of the economic recovery and the 2012 debate over jobs. The markets expect joblessness to stay at 9.1 percent and nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 125,000 in June. But while Republicans will be able to target the persistently high unemployment number, Dow Jones predicts the markets could jump: "Wall Street investors are itching to take stocks to new highs after the release of the government's jobs report on Friday...Ahead of the release, stocks got a huge boost Thursday after data from Automatic Data Processing showed that private-sector employment
increased 157,000 in June, well above the 95,000 expected... In addition, the U.S. Labor Department said initial claims for jobless benefits fell by more than anticipated."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=082e63faa528b1d9339850b27f41de704eb0d29866007721a898a8474dc24cd1
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PLUS - THE LOCAL FRONT - The president will have the opportunity to push his message on jobs and the debt ceiling in four interviews with local TV affiliates. His hit list, per the daily guidance: WISN Milwaukee, WTAE Pittsburgh, KING Seattle and WTVD Raleigh-Durham.

As the Koch Companies have some fun, Walter Mondale hits a wall and David Cameron holds back his 2012 endorsement, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

POPPING IN WISCONSIN - EMILY'S LIST ON THE AIR - EMILY's List is up with its first - but not its last -ad in the Wisconsin state Senate recall fight, targeting Republican state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf with a "significant" television buy. The 30-second spot shows a young girl playing on a ladder in a playground and charges Harsdorf with making it harder for her to reach the (metaphorical) top. Harsdorf "cut over $800 million from our schools, all so she could give huge tax breaks to corporations and the super rich," the ad says, before boosting the Democratic challenger: "Shelly Moore has a proven record of helping Wisconsin kids ... She'll stand up to Gov. Walker so every child can make it to
the top." The ad is running in Harsdorf's Senate District 10, which is in the northwestern part of the state, with an undisclosed price tag. Watch the ad here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=082e63faa528b1d95c1096fea4439bf10e64d86d872d823974cd419ca0e8acca
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=082e63faa528b1d95c1096fea4439bf10e64d86d872d823974cd419ca0e8acca

IOWA TALKER - PAWLENTY DIALS UP CONTRAST - The former Minnesota governor has been scrupulous about not criticizing Michele Bachmann directly and dodging every piece of Bachmann-related bait offered to him by the press. That's why it's notable that in an interview with the Des Moines Register, Pawlenty finally drew a sharper distinction between his political background and hers. "Each candidate brings some different strengths to the table, and mine include having been an executive of a large public enterprise in a difficult environment and actually getting things proposed and results to conclusion," Pawlenty said. "She's been in the legislative arena, as to specific results that have been
achieved, I'm not sure what they would be."
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BUT - JUST GETTING STARTED? In a verbal misstep that his opponents are already mocking, Pawlenty also told the Register that he's taking some time to gain traction in the polls because "this week is the first time that I've campaigned in earnest in Iowa." That seems like an odd statement for a candidate who's spent a lot of time in the Hawkeye State, and Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue Dvorsky has a statement teed up wondering: "If Tim Pawlenty wasn't campaigning 'in earnest' what exactly was he doing?" Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant said the candidate meant that a new phase of the campaign is beginning as the "preseason" is over and "we're on the first of many campaign swings through
the state doing lots of press and public events."
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NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Will the Republican race's first in be the first out?" - Jeff Zeleny asks the ominous question from Ames: "Tim Pawlenty was first in line to enter the Republican presidential race. He is now fighting to avoid becoming the earliest major candidate to be shown the door." Plus - Bloomberg starts setting the bar for Ames: "Pawlenty has done everything usually needed to become a top-tier contender in Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses. So far, there's little sign his work is paying off. That has raised the stakes for the former Minnesota governor to make a good showing in the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll."
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BACK IN MSP - SHUTDOWN UPDATE - Democrats and Republicans have dug in their heels as the state shutdown enters Day No. 8. Republicans scored a win yesterday in the messaging battle, forcing Gov. Mark Dayton to defend keeping a chef and housekeeper in the governor's mansion as essential employees. But that didn't do much to shift the fundamentals of the shutdown fight, and Dayton said he's paying the chef's salary out of pocket. Republicans continue to call his proposal for a cigarette tax hike - instead of Dayton's preferred income tax increase - a nonstarter. Both sides were unmoved by a compromise proposed by a Walter Mondale-led commission, which called for an income tax hike on all
Minnesotans - and led Tim Pawlenty to engage yet again in a home-state squabble by issuing a statement:"This commission is the political equivalent of Jurassic Park."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d209e11066d69051a416e7ccf4548aa7cabbe240da0e524d8cb97d0ff45a3fb3
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LIFE AS THE FRONTRUNNER - ROMNEY IN LONDON - Mitt Romney held meetings Thursday with British government officials, tweeting a picture of himself with Prime Minister David Cameron on the second day of his trip to London. The Wall Street Journal notes the tricky politics for Cameron: "A Downing Street spokesman said that Mr. Cameron 'dropped into' a meeting with Mr. Romney and Sir Peter Ricketts, the prime minister's national security adviser. The meeting should not be seen as an endorsement of Mr. Romney, a Downing Street official told Washington Wire earlier this week."
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CALENDAR WATCH - FLORIDA FORGES AHEAD - The Sunshine State looks likely to hold its 2012 presidential primary on March 1, 2 or 3, in an attempt to seize some kind of early-state status without violating RNC rules too brazenly. Adam Smith: "That would make it the fifth nominating contest - after Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina - but would still run afoul of rules set by the Republican National Committee. 'I think that's where it will end up,' Gov. Rick Scott said, referring to those first few days in March ... Plenty of factors could push Florida's primary earlier than March, including other states setting early primaries. Several, including Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and
Wyoming, have been looking at that option."
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MEANWHILE, IN NEVADA - WHAT CAUCUSES? Nevada Republican Party Chair Amy Tarkanian was "relatively silent on the role Nevada will play" in the 2012 primaries during a Thursday conference call, the Las Vegas Sun reports. Few Republican presidential candidates are treating Nevada like a real contest at this point and it doesn't sound like the state GOP has active plans to change that: "Tarkanian deflected a question [Thursday] about what the party is doing to prepare for the caucuses, a key to ensuring candidates have confidence to compete in Nevada... A nationally televised debate is scheduled for Oct. 11. But the party has yet to put significant attention to organizing the caucuses."
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Q2 MONEY TICKER - The latest returns trickling in: Florida Senate candidate Adam Hasner raised $560,000 for a competitive GOP primary and had $470,000 in the bank ... New Hampshire House challenger Ann McLane Kuster outraised incumbent GOP Rep. Charlie Bass, $365,000 to $303,000 ... Mike Pence revised his money total upward for the Indiana governor's race, announcing a $1.6 million take that exceeds the $1 million number leaked earlier ...

AWKWARD - CALLING THE KOCHS - Democrats have spent much of the last year making the Koch brothers their top political punching bag - so Philip Ellender, president of government affairs for the Koch Companies' public sector division, thought it was strange to get solicited for donations by the DSCC. In an open letter to DSCC Chair Patty Murray, Ellender says he received a June 17 fundraising message followed by a voicemail from the Washington senator, and asks: "I'm hoping you can help me understand the intent of your request because it's hard not to conclude that DSCC politics have become so cynical that you actually expect people whom you routinely denounce to give DSCC money." The letter
and Murray's voicemail are online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d209e11066d69051a52e3dd9e76d7d0e5f66bb49028b46b651631e2783a0ffd7
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THE NEW YORK SPECIAL - DEMS PICK WEPRIN - Democratic Party leaders in Queens and Brooklyn have settled on Assemblyman David Weprin to run in the special election to fill ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner's House seat. The former city councilman becomes an automatic frontrunner in the Democratic district. WNYC: "He comes from a very politically-connected family - his brother Mark Weprin is a on the City Council and was considered a possible nominee for the congressional seat, and his father is former state Assembly speaker Saul Weprin. The Republicans have not formally announced a nominee yet, and have until July 11th to do so."
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ELSEWHERE IN N.Y. - SIGN OF THE TIMES - New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will preside at a gay wedding at Gracie Mansion on July 24, the first day same-sex marriages are allowed in New York. The New York Times has a rich report on how the event came together: "Mr. Bloomberg, who delivered speeches, held fund-raisers and lobbied lawmakers to legalize same-sex marriage in New York, is now punctuating his official advocacy with a personal gesture: hosting and presiding at a gay wedding on the first possible day, in one of the grandest possible settings."
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FINAL COUNTDOWN IN CA-36 - DEBATE DAY - It's not clear just how competitive the race for Jane Harman's old House seat is at this point, but Democrat Janice Hahn and Republican Craig Huey didn't do much to change the dynamic of the race in their only debate yesterday. The Los Angeles Times: "Huey called Hahn a 'career politician' ... and blamed her and other Democrats for setting the country up for an 'economic catastrophe.' Hahn said Huey wants to protect 'millionaires and billionaires' and big business at the cost of life-saving environmental and workplace safeguards."
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "They're all really piling it up on me." - News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch, commenting on the ballooning News of the World scandal during a retreat in Sun Valley
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