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By Emily Schultheis (eschultheis@politico.com; Twitter: @emilyrs) and Jose DelReal (
mailto:jdelreal@politico.com
jdelreal@politico.com ; Twitter: @jdelreal)

JOLLY VICTORY SPELLS TROUBLE FOR DEMOCRATS THIS YEAR: The Florida 13th special election came to a close last night when, in what's sure to be endlessly analyzed as a bellwether for the 2014 midterm season, Republican David Jolly pulling out a two-point victory over Democrat Alex Sink. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt looks at what it all means: "Democrats couldn't have asked for a more golden opportunity. They had the right candidate matchup: Alex Sink, a respected former statewide official who nearly won the governorship in 2010, up against a former lobbyist, Republican David Jolly. They had the right district: A swing region of Florida that appeared poised to elect a Democrat after more than
four decades of GOP representation. And they certainly had the money: In a year of staggering GOP spending, Sink far outraised her opponent and got nearly $4 million in help from outside Democratic groups. In the end, it wasn't enough. Jolly won by 3,456 votes. And he did it by playing a hand Republicans across the country are expected to follow: Run as an opponent to the president's unpopular health care law and the Democrat as for it. Democrats are scrambling to launch a counteroffensive - and if they don't come up with one fast, Tuesday's loss could foreshadow a brutal year for the party at the ballot box this fall."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e968e2f18799221cee8f3198b29334b3e040ed31d0b3071dc79
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e968e2f18799221cee8f3198b29334b3e040ed31d0b3071dc79

THIS MORNING'S HEADLINES: TAMPA BAY TIMES: David Jolly elected to represent Pinellas County in Congress:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96aaaea8f377c1d8ee420c7779e2def6aa422900504084780a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96aaaea8f377c1d8ee420c7779e2def6aa422900504084780a ... NEW YORK TIMES: Victory in Florida Bolsters Midterm Hopes for Republicans:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96d5326ee9f73f5eae456088fdd731b7d06b6dd4bd24417cd6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96d5326ee9f73f5eae456088fdd731b7d06b6dd4bd24417cd6 ... LA TIMES: GOP emphasis on Obamacare helps David Jolly win House seat in Florida:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96c42541c14bab5cec79ac77a740233ce2254407b2417baa7f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96c42541c14bab5cec79ac77a740233ce2254407b2417baa7f ... ASSOCIATED PRESS: Florida House Race Could Be Warning for Democrats:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e960b7de5c09e81615a656e99f8fae9ec6fbdb030d74d0834a3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e960b7de5c09e81615a656e99f8fae9ec6fbdb030d74d0834a3 ... NATIONAL JOURNAL: Republican Wave in 2014 Looking More Likely:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e965b398d79b93cfc191707ead96a39b38d5b021e534e451918
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e965b398d79b93cfc191707ead96a39b38d5b021e534e451918

THE FINAL MARGIN (100% of precincts reporting): Jolly 89,099 (48.52%), Sink 85,642 (46.64%), Overby 8,893 (4.84%).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96423090a7917d8c3050774cb99b85d5273dea710a83fd53d9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96423090a7917d8c3050774cb99b85d5273dea710a83fd53d9

THE MONEY: Total spending in the race came to $12.7 million, per the Center for Public Integrity-more than two-thirds of it from outside groups. Sink had the advantage in pure campaign cash, $2.7 million to $1.3 million- but Jolly was aided by almost $5 million in outside money (NRCC: $2.2 million; Chamber of Commerce: $1.2 million; American Action Network: $470,000; American Crossroads: $470,000). Sink had $3.7 million in outside funding, mainly from the DCCC and House Majority PAC.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e961956783648d2a8a3c333356a47686196a3f653be9583b184
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e961956783648d2a8a3c333356a47686196a3f653be9583b184

PARTY SPIN ALREADY IN FULL SWING: Republicans see Jolly's victory as a referendum on the Affordable Care Act and are painting it is an early indicator of a potential GOP sweep in November. "Democrats are in grave, grave danger. Tonight, Nancy Pelosi's most prized candidate in the entire country was brought down because of ObamaCare, President Obama and the Democrats total mishandling of our economy," said NRCC Spokesman Daniel Scarpinato in a written statement. That Sink had a fundraising advantage and, by most accounts, ran a far better campaign operation gives Republicans hope that even strong Democratic contenders will have similar difficulties in the midterms. For their part, Democrats
are pointing to the low turnout and conservative slant of special elections to dismiss claims that Jolly's victory represents a blow to the party or the electoral tenability of the ACA. "Democrats will fight for FL-13 in the midterm, when the electorate is far less heavily tilted toward Republicans. Despite those millions from Republican outside groups, they underperformed because the only message they offered voters - repealing the ACA - is out of touch and failed to bring them even close to their historically wide margins," said DCCC Chairman Steve Israel in a written statement.

As dueling polls measure Obama's approval rating, six Democrats file to take on Tom Corbett and Obama plugs HealthCare.Gov to Zach Galifianakis, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the 2014 midterms.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 237.

**Want a career in politics or public relations?Understanding how to leverage your passion for a cause or a candidate is only the first step of a successful campaign. At GW's Graduate School of Political Management, we game out real-world scenarios in the classroom.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Morning Score. As always, send your tips, thoughts, and suggestions to
mailto:eschultheis@politico.com
eschultheis@politico.com or tweet them to @emilyrs.

BREAKING OVERNIGHT-NBC/WSJ POLL SHOWS TIGHT RACE FOR CONGRESS: A brand-new NBC/WSJ poll out early this morning finds that voters very slightly prefer a Republican-controlled Congress: 44 percent say they want the GOP to be in charge, compared with 43 percent who chose Democrats. (At this point in 2010, that figure was 46 percent Republicans, 44 percent Democrats.) The poll also finds that President Obama's job approval is down to 41 percent, a new low for him.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e968187b5097a1bf8df0d2ad003846ce9bf5240ab5d1163eb5a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e968187b5097a1bf8df0d2ad003846ce9bf5240ab5d1163eb5a

MEANWHILE-A Bloomberg poll out Tuesday night puts Obama's approval rating at 48 percent, a 6-point jump from the organization's last poll in December:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9676a0c48af3302d3cfd63593734c22416f5a2fd2b2dc155e9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9676a0c48af3302d3cfd63593734c22416f5a2fd2b2dc155e9

NEW TODAY-TEXAS GOP WOMEN LAUNCH NEW PAC: RedState Women, a new Texas PAC designed to woo female voters to the GOP. The organization, reported first by POLITICO's Katie Glueck, is set to launch online later this morning and will issue web-based testimonial videos, from elected officials and regular voters alike, about what it means to be a Republican woman in Texas. The first one features Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, who says in the two-minute spot that she's the youngest GOP woman elected statewide in Texas history and is also a single mom. "I just think the Republican Party has not done a good job in general of reaching out to women, communicating with them, listening
to their concerns," she said in an interview. "...For me, being a fiscal conservative, running a household, having to meet a budget, are very important. Republicans understand that. We don't talk about those issues as well as we should. I think that's the opportunity." The group kicks off as Democrats hope state Sen. Wendy Davis will boost their numbers with women in the Texas gubernatorial race, where Davis faces an uphill battle against GOP nominee Greg Abbott.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e966db8e6d24333dab1d3f627e6cb2a7cbb425424fb15e946cd
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FIRST IN SCORE-DFA BACKS MIZEUR IN MARYLAND: The pro-Democratic group Democracy for America will endorse state Del. Heather Mizeur in Maryland's Democratic gubernatorial primary. "Heather Mizeur won't just make history as Maryland's first woman governor and the first gay governor in American history. She'll make history as an unabashed progressive champion with the vision and leadership needed to get things done in Annapolis," DFA executive director Charles Chamberlain says in a statement. Mizeur has an uphill battle to the nomination in a race where Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and attorney general Doug Gansler are seen as the top two candidates battling it out.

FILING DEADLINES IN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW MEXICO, OREGON: Three states had filing deadlines last night. Some highlights: in Pennsylvania, a total of six Democrats filed to run against vulnerable Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett: businessman Tom Wolf, state Treasurer Rob McCord, U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, former state environmental protection secretaries Katie McGinty and John Hanger, and former state Auditor General Jack Wagner. (Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz ended her campaign Tuesday.) One Republican, businessman and conservative activist Bob Guzzardi, filed to run against Corbett in the primary. (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e964d5de8c04dda0e2f272d146018acba8640341225f8a225d4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e964d5de8c04dda0e2f272d146018acba8640341225f8a225d4 ) ... In New Mexico, GOP Gov. Susana Martinez-who's widely expected to coast to reelection-has five Democratic opponents: Attorney General Gary King, state Sens. Linda Lopez and Howie Morales, businessman Alan Webber and New Mexico Green Chamber of Commerce head Lawrence Rael (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96639e2f1a3d3953dbca88a2661808f63e11d4bab82ec7489b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96639e2f1a3d3953dbca88a2661808f63e11d4bab82ec7489b ).

ACROSS THE MAP-Quick takes from races around the country:

SENATE-

-NE-Sen: In a televised GOP Senate debate, the four candidates mostly agreed to agree; they all took shots at President Obama but not at each other.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96ace745a3b62f4bc3f556fc7fdf563b9280773d4ae6a787b6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96ace745a3b62f4bc3f556fc7fdf563b9280773d4ae6a787b6

-KY-Sen: Sen. Mitch McConnell criticized Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes for not speaking out in favor of the coal industry following the US Senate's 'all-nighter" on climate issues.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9623cdfd3043bdf5e22258d8f6af34620772bd2b9341766751
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9623cdfd3043bdf5e22258d8f6af34620772bd2b9341766751

-NC-Sen: A new PPP poll has Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon tied for the GOP nomination at 14 percent each, knocking Tillis out of his position as the frontrunner.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96028bab0b5e46f58096f6e277b2bffac8f6935a80b19895dc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96028bab0b5e46f58096f6e277b2bffac8f6935a80b19895dc

-IA-Sen: GOP candidate Mark Jacobs went up with his second TV ad Tuesday, this one focusing on why his background as a businessman will help him in the Senate.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96dbb1789334e830ecdeb6d480015e318597a6ba5829711b0e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96dbb1789334e830ecdeb6d480015e318597a6ba5829711b0e

HOUSE-

-SCF: The Senate Conservatives Fund endorsed five House candidates and launched a website to help them fundraise: Chad Mathis in AL-06; Barry Loudermilk in GA-11; Bryan Smith in ID-02; Matt Schultz in IA-03; and Alex Mooney in WV-02. (Smith is the only one running against an incumbent; the others are all running in open seats.)
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e962f6dfed6112c3c13c77404b78d0a8ed07f93c1489721e8c5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e962f6dfed6112c3c13c77404b78d0a8ed07f93c1489721e8c5

-CA-52: The League of Conservation Voters Action Fund is slated to endorse incumbent Democratic Rep. Scott Peters, who's facing a challenge from GOP candidate Carl DeMaio.

-PA-13: Former President Bill Clinton will headline a fundraiser for former Rep. Marjorie Margolies, Chelsea Clinton's mother-in-law, who lost the seat in 1994 after casting the decisive vote for the president's budget.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e964b6ece4cf4d2d7e1fa31801ff482f3efa4d8f5d9896e7387
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e964b6ece4cf4d2d7e1fa31801ff482f3efa4d8f5d9896e7387

-TX-04: Republican state Rep. Jodie Laubenberg endorsed former US Attorney John Ratcliffe in his runoff against GOP Rep. Ralph Hall.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e966afc9c6ff2421517883d371194ee941fe0aaf0695e91d748
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e966afc9c6ff2421517883d371194ee941fe0aaf0695e91d748

-AZ-07: Former U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell backed state Rep. Ruben Gallego in the now-open Democratic primary for retiring Rep. Ed Pastor's seat, a race that could get crowded.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96a95c5f1ea632f2cdf928fa40e5591e59973e04de96b020a1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96a95c5f1ea632f2cdf928fa40e5591e59973e04de96b020a1

GOVERNORS-

-CO-Gov: Attorney General John Suthers endorsed former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez in the crowded GOP gubernatorial primary.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9656f1d8931137634e2dc4fcfb66d4277487f78b2ecfbc8ae4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9656f1d8931137634e2dc4fcfb66d4277487f78b2ecfbc8ae4

-FL-Gov: Gov. Rick Scott released a new TV ad Tuesday, talking about the importance of family, as part of a $2.2 million statewide ad buy.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9670d7ee8b682fc04778e745b7035a9fb2b11fcf3a3d4a405e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e9670d7ee8b682fc04778e745b7035a9fb2b11fcf3a3d4a405e

-ME-Gov: An internal poll from Democrat Mike Michaud's campaign has him leading GOP Gov. Paul LePage 39 percent to 35 percent (with independent Eliot Cutler at 16 percent).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96733b68b7bdc24715c5ebdb813a02cd019d1961d1acc10635
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96733b68b7bdc24715c5ebdb813a02cd019d1961d1acc10635

CODA-QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You need to get on HealthCare.gov, because that's one of the most disgusting things I've ever seen." -President Obama to actor Zach Galifianakis, about his supposed spider bite, during an interview on Galifianakis's show "Between Two Ferns." (HealthCare.Gov got a huge surge in web traffic after the interview.)
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96758393d2a86e27aa86f01c9fbcaa17aa67eb9927b61b0efc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3b75091dd8f61e96758393d2a86e27aa86f01c9fbcaa17aa67eb9927b61b0efc

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