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Dear R. Hunter,

The recent incursion of Russian forces into the Crimean region in the
Ukraine represents Russia's boldest action since the end of the Cold
War. Although the worst case scenarios for a military escalation appear
to have moderated in recent days, the Crimean parliament's decision
today to join Russia and hold a referendum on the matter in ten days
marks a new stage in this crisis. While Western powers have limited
means to respond to Russia's aggression in the near term, Russia will
likely suffer from this action in the medium term due to sanctions and
potentially being kicked out of the G-8 if the situation does not
deescalate. I explore this situation in greater depth in the attached
bulletin, "The Ukraine Crisis."

As always, we welcome any questions or comments.

With all best wishes,

David Hale

Chairman

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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