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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

IS NEWT STARTING TO SLIP? -Gingrich holds leads in Iowa and nationally, but there are some signals that the wind could be starting to come out of his sails.

IOWA - DOWN 5 POINTS IN A WEEK:Gingrich's 9-point lead in last week's Public Policy Polling survey of likely Iowa caucus goers has slipped to a single point. He leads Ron Paul 22-21, with Romney at 16%. Democratic pollster Tom Jensen looks at Newt's slipping favorability numbers: "Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%." Analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsU9bd8dcd127c593336bbec9b5a916f23ab5b0eef953ecf80e8918be6949acc7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsU9bd8dcd127c593336bbec9b5a916f23ab5b0eef953ecf80e8918be6949acc7 . Full results:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs0175e027af0c7ca1db044bb8cd886c2a0af1cb0c6ddd05ba8b57f295167707
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs0175e027af0c7ca1db044bb8cd886c2a0af1cb0c6ddd05ba8b57f295167707 .

NATIONALLY - DOWN 6 IN GALLUP TRACKING:Gingrich still leads with 31 percent, but he's coming back down to earth after spiking to 37 points last week. Romney has held steady in second at 22.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsY1b1ff107bb470d8fcad9cfae41f26760fe76d06b8ae12a225804476c0105b1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsY1b1ff107bb470d8fcad9cfae41f26760fe76d06b8ae12a225804476c0105b1

VIRGINIA - NEWT LEADS, BUT HIS SUPPORT IS LUKEWARM:"Only 42% of [Gingrich] voters firmly committed to while 58% say they could change their minds between now and the election. And the next in line is...Romney. 26% of Gingrich voters peg him as their second choice to 13% for Paul, 12% for Bachmann and Perry, and 11% for Santorum," Democratic pollster Tom Jensen writes. "A Newt collapse is seeming less and less inevitable with each passing week, but if it does eventually happen Romney is likely to move into the lead."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs d1b98bfe9b6900f0a3adfe92a0e0bf1d49282940f24170803b0fed26eb6caa
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs d1b98bfe9b6900f0a3adfe92a0e0bf1d49282940f24170803b0fed26eb6caa

STILL FLUID - NATE SILVER PUTS GINGRICH CHANCE OF WINNING CAUCUSES AT UNDER 50%:The New York Times' Nate Silver forecasts (based on current polling and a few other variables) that,"Right now, Mr. Gingrich's win probability is just under 50 percent, but Mr. Paul has gained ground and now has a 28 percent chance of winning. Mr. Romney, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and Michele Bachmann are all between about 5 and 10 percent, while Rick Santorum has about a 2 percent chance of winning based on the current surveys. Thus, although Mr. Gingrich still has the lead, Iowa looks to be fairly wide open with as many as five plausible winners."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsb328ebdbc749e025418fd3fc82bb82f77921f0a38a79be0eb02ea309d111b4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsb328ebdbc749e025418fd3fc82bb82f77921f0a38a79be0eb02ea309d111b4

AP POLL PUTS NEWT UP SIX - VOTERS SHRUG AT ROMNEY'S BUSINESS EXPERIENCE:A new AP/GfK national poll out this morning finds Gingrich leading Romney 33 to 27, with everyone else in single digits."Republicans are evenly divided on whether a Washington insider or outsider is best-suited to be president. That's a problem for Romney, who cites his private-sector experience as the biggest difference between the two front-runners for the GOP nomination," Chuck Babington and Nancy Benac write. "The poll also founda significant drop in satisfaction with the overall field... In October, 66 percent of Republican adults were satisfied with the field. Now, 56 percent are satisfied and 40 percent
unsatisfied." Story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsff7b5bebed1e6ea4c77acbcf157b025e989a408af1baab6c423bdf46cd5a7d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsff7b5bebed1e6ea4c77acbcf157b025e989a408af1baab6c423bdf46cd5a7d . Toplines:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsQ202941e1a0ee00664d9e89f22dcf4df9d7ff1280dd3d5e369fbfc7441dbe78
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsQ202941e1a0ee00664d9e89f22dcf4df9d7ff1280dd3d5e369fbfc7441dbe78 .

NBC/WSJ - GINGRICH HAS PROBLEMS WITH INDEPENDENTS: Gingrich is up 17 nationally in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, with 40% to Romney's 23% (no one else broke into double digits)..."but the poll also found deep unease with Mr. Gingrich among independents and swing voters who normally decide presidential elections," the Wall Street Journal reports today. Story is behind the pay wall:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs604aed80d95f256710556e896e3c360bc6c6fa8423d8c9c63329316c12860c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs604aed80d95f256710556e896e3c360bc6c6fa8423d8c9c63329316c12860c .

MORE - 57% OF PRIMARY VOTERS THINK GINGRICH IS CONSERVATIVE:More from NBC's Mark Murray: "In a two-way Republican contest, Gingrich leads Romney by 23 points, 59 percent to 36 percent...Fifty-seven percent of Republican primary voters view Gingrich as a conservative, 28 percent see him as a moderate and 10 percent believe he's liberal. By comparison, 53 percent of them view Romney as a moderate, 29 percent see him as a conservative and 11 percent believe he's a liberal." All the said, there is room to hurt Gingrich if Boston and Gingrich's more conservative rivals can define him as NOT conservative. Toplines:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs78fc1c5d81fb3dda327f692f52eb91d1bcb99dd8ffb457d7767932b3b2ed480
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs78fc1c5d81fb3dda327f692f52eb91d1bcb99dd8ffb457d7767932b3b2ed480 . Story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs624134237ee4c519d911fd5d1a03ac39c513f086b520b2603621a426fe7ad9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs624134237ee4c519d911fd5d1a03ac39c513f086b520b2603621a426fe7ad9 .

** As the DNC rents an airplane, the Blue Dogs endorse some promising challengers and Planned Parenthood prebutts Mike Huckabee, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

FIRST IN SCORE - 55% OF HISPANICS SUPPORT HEALTH CARE LAW:Protect Your Care, the independent group focused on increasing awareness of the benefits of the federal health care law, commissioned Anzalone Liszt Research to conduct a national poll on Hispanic attitudes. The pollsters will release a 31-page PowerPoint during an 11 a.m. press call. But here are some advance nuggets that might be of interest: Dems hold a 36-point edge among Hispanics on party ID, including 28 points on the generic ballot. Obama's job approval is 57% among Hispanics overall and 44% with ones who identify as independent. On whom they trust more, Obama has a 34-point edge on protecting the middle class, 30 points on
Medicare and Healthcare in general and 21 points on Medicaid. 55% of Hispanic voters support the Affordable Care Act, with 68% opposing repeal. When told about Republican Medicare plans in more balanced language - e.g. it won't impact anyone over 55 - 61% of Hispanics oppose it.

SNEAK PEEK - ROMNEY TO ROLL OUT MICHIGAN ENDORSEMENTS:Showcasing their organization and eager to demonstrate a sense of "momentum," Boston will roll out the names of 19 GOP leaders from the candidate's home state who have agreed to back him. The list includes the treasurer and outreach vice chair for the state party as well as several county chairs. "As our momentum builds, I'm so thankful to have such a strong grassroots team helping to lead my campaign in Michigan," Romney says in a forthcoming statement.

LAST NIGHT - CHRISTINE O'DONNELL BACKED ROMNEY:The failed Delaware Senate candidate endorsed Romney last night. She's most famous for declaring in a commercial that she is not a witch (she had admitted dabbling earlier in life). Half an hour after the Romney campaign blasted out its press release, the Democratic National Committee forwarded it without comment to its own press list.

TRUMP BOWS OUT OF DEBATE - KEEPS DOOR OPEN TO RUNNING AS INDEPENDENT:"Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he is bowing out as the moderator for a Republican presidential debate later this month, after most candidates in the field opted not to attend. Trump said he wanted to make sure there's no 'conflict of interest' in case he decides to run as a third-party candidate next year. He cast his decision as a way to keep his options open." It also ensures he continues to get cable hits. Fox's write-up:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs89acc29a41681f3fa7339e8723e6c2f9ced61cff7371cb9a5a130d3d1d5117
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs89acc29a41681f3fa7339e8723e6c2f9ced61cff7371cb9a5a130d3d1d5117 . Video ofTrump on Greta last night:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs44e2141f25fec3935ac7555617e7d9b78c9d1fce10274c72786c63b7967e39
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs44e2141f25fec3935ac7555617e7d9b78c9d1fce10274c72786c63b7967e39 .Stephen Colbertmocked Trump for canceling his debate with this 2.5 segment from last night:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsuc5207e462de6a487fa1c2c8a06ca3ade85641c7f627d132a44930b893d25ad
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsuc5207e462de6a487fa1c2c8a06ca3ade85641c7f627d132a44930b893d25ad .

"THE CULT OF MORMON" - GINGRICH IOWA POLITICAL DIRECTOR OUT AFTER COMMENT:"The new political director for Newt Gingrich's Iowa campaign 'agreed to step away' from the job after it came to light that he had said some evangelicals believe God would reject Mitt Romney because of his Mormonism," The Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs reports. "Craig Bergman during a focus group last Wednesday with the Iowa Republican and McClatchy newspapers said he thought Romney's religion eventually would cost him votes. 'A lot of the evangelicals believe God would give us four more years of Obama just for the opportunity to expose the cult of Mormon,' Bergman said during the focus group, according to The
Iowa Republican. 'There's a thousand pastors ready to do that.' ... 'He made a comment to a focus group prior to becoming an employee that is inconsistent with Newt 2012's pledge to run a positive and solutions-orientated campaign,' spokesman R.C. Hammond said in the statement."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsa011cebb2b91a9f4080888f8bf2514cd0ab62c76d47450dec40720d396f1dd7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsa011cebb2b91a9f4080888f8bf2514cd0ab62c76d47450dec40720d396f1dd7

MEANWHILE - ROMNEY TALKS MORE ABOUT MORMONISM IN EFFORT TO HUMANIZE SELF:"Four years ago, Mr. Romney rarely talked of his Mormon faith during his presidential campaign, but in recent days Mr. Romney has invoked his time as a missionary and church pastor when asked to explain how he, a man whose net worth is estimated at $200 million, can relate to the everyday concerns of average Americans," Ashley Parker writes in today's New York Times. "He speaks about it in general terms, highlighting his role as a leader and servant, rather than getting into the specifics of Mormon beliefs. And starting with the debate on Saturday, Mr. Romney has talked about his church three times in as many days."
The kicker has Stuart Stevens, senior Romney strategist, downplaying the shift: "I think maybe because it's Christmastime, he's sort of more reflective?"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsa0f11b3d673aab89c2b75723c9e56df69855737656f902f41ca72205a1618e8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsa0f11b3d673aab89c2b75723c9e56df69855737656f902f41ca72205a1618e8

GINGRICH'S CALVARY - NEW SUPER PAC ARRIVES TO OFFER AIR COVER:"The group, called 'Winning Our Future' is led by Becky Burkett, who has experience in soliciting big checks for Gingrich-backed endeavors. She previously handled donor outreach for Gingrich's Washington-based nonprofit, American Solutions for Winning the Future," per the Los Angeles Times.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs;5de11b20022ea9b05a56bee2dd4b38e0e2a53eae5aa4e702bd14ec71dda745
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs;5de11b20022ea9b05a56bee2dd4b38e0e2a53eae5aa4e702bd14ec71dda745

JUST OUT - ANOTHER ROMNEY HIT ON NEWT FOR FREDDIE MAC:The campaign will blast out a video of Newt in September 2008. "...everybody who was profiting from them should pay the cost of having failed," he said then. "And the general taxpayer should not bear that burden." Watch the 30-second video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsH702fab0f5474a9be4c8481adebae5c5fcfb42d8ae9dc7776894b7cd98f17c6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsH702fab0f5474a9be4c8481adebae5c5fcfb42d8ae9dc7776894b7cd98f17c6 . Perry also hit Gingrich (a little more implicitly) yesterday on Sean Hannity's show for not registering as a lobbyist:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs9dfd0e286b477fecbdb1339085ffa6bcff97a09833dc7ca03414069498fd5d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs9dfd0e286b477fecbdb1339085ffa6bcff97a09833dc7ca03414069498fd5d .

"UNRELIABLE LEADER - ROMNEY HITS NEWT IN WASH POST INTERVIEW:Romney called Gingrich an "extremely unreliable leader in the conservative world" in an interview with Dan Balz and Phil Rucker yesterday. "Let's look at the record," he said. "When Republicans were fighting for cap and trade and needed a leader to stand up against cap and trade, he did an ad with Nancy Pelosi about global warming. When Republicans took one of the most courageous votes I've seen in at least a decade to call for the reform of Medicare under the Paul Ryan plan, he goes public and says this is a 'right-wing social engineering' plan. Even today he called it 'suicide.' "
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs4abedaf068d69ef08d6108913d01cbcee4a1fc885929292df9ad100bc10996
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs4abedaf068d69ef08d6108913d01cbcee4a1fc885929292df9ad100bc10996

CONSERVATIVE BLOWBACK -Free-enterprise-focused conservatives are upset with Gingrich for criticizing Romney's work at Bain Capital. Two representative samples from the commentariat:

GEORGE WILLcallsit aCAPITAL CRIME in today's Washington Post:"Romney, while at Bain, performed the essential social function of connecting investment resources with opportunities. Firms such as Bain are indispensable for wealth creation, which often involves taking over badly run companies, shedding dead weight and thereby liberating remaining elements that add value. The process, like surgery, can be lifesaving. And like surgery, society would rather benefit from it than watch it." The Washington Post's candidate series profile of Gingrich (as bomb thrower and smartest guy in the room) runs in the same paper today:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs%1b8fdf6e60d7da4188bd81d0258912efce5f5986d578eab1fffe856bb41b8f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs%1b8fdf6e60d7da4188bd81d0258912efce5f5986d578eab1fffe856bb41b8f . George Will:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs7192b9a7d29be7e2e4f6dd8f97e983c4b6567562a9ea5df39cd6e20a735baea
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs7192b9a7d29be7e2e4f6dd8f97e983c4b6567562a9ea5df39cd6e20a735baea .

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMERon Fox:"What kind of conception of capitalism do you have if you are attacking your opponent for entering what is the risk-taking of capitalism? ... This kind of attack is what you'd expect from a socialist? ... I think that is quite remarkable and telling, and it makes you wonder about the core ideology of Newt himself.' Video (via the Hill/GOP 2012):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs8a676686092d51c3c6a4300865f9fcb9a9032cd468c1e8d53209b797ac9f68
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs8a676686092d51c3c6a4300865f9fcb9a9032cd468c1e8d53209b797ac9f68 .

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:The big political event of the day is Mike Huckabee's screening of "Gift of Life," an anti-abortion documentary, in Des Moines at 7 p.m. Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum will be there. Beforehand, Gingrich talks about brain science research in Iowa City. Perry embarks on his bus tour, with stops in Council Bluffs, Harlan and Denison. [More on that below.] Romney has fundraisers in New York City. Santorum has four stops in Iowa before the forum. Paul is speaking at a breakfast in Amherst, N.H., then doing retail politics stops in Hillsborough and finishing with a town hall in Derry.

EXCLUSIVE PREVIEW - PLANNED PARENTHOOD PREBUTTS HUCKABEE ABORTION FORUM:The group charges in a memo going out later that Romney, though he will not attend Mike Huckabee's Iowa event today, also has (in their view) a bad record on reproductive rights. "Undoubtedly, the candidates who are attending - Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry - will tout their out-of-the-mainstream record on women's health, as well as attack Planned Parenthood... Romney, like the other GOP presidential candidates, supports: *barring Planned Parenthood health centers from providing preventive health care through federal programs *overturning Roe v. Wade *attacking family planning programs."
Read:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs[3b91545cdb2ce708be571eb173503a145227cdfccc2845499a6fb99fc24f7f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs[3b91545cdb2ce708be571eb173503a145227cdfccc2845499a6fb99fc24f7f .

BRACKETING ROMNEY - DNC HIRES PLANE TO CIRCLE NYC:Romney will attend a handful of fundraisers in New York City today. The Democratic National Committee will hire an airplane to circle over the Hudson River between the George Washington Bridge and Hoboken with a 175 foot sign that reads: "Bet You 10k Romney's Out of Touch Mitts10KBet.com." The plane will circle for several hours during lunchtime. To maximize earned media, New York Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs and Bayonee, NJ, Mayor Mark Smith will hold a press conference on the new ad with the plane and New York skyline in the background.

JON STEWART made fun of the $10,000 bet on his show Monday night:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs`e66870c5bf2be24081c2b3604a05297b695f3e8daeff9be2285e572af5f463
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs`e66870c5bf2be24081c2b3604a05297b695f3e8daeff9be2285e572af5f463 .

"PROGRESSIVE" - DNC VIDEO HITS ROMNEY FOR 2002 COMMENTS:The latest installment in their WhichMitt video series juxtaposes a recent video of Romney saying he has not erred in his conservative beliefs against a clip from the eve of the 2002 election in Massachusetts describing himself as holding progressive views and downplaying his Republicanism. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qswea75cbcdcaaae11a76bf626a3ca6d11928523f901176e873bdb5179d80d1f7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qswea75cbcdcaaae11a76bf626a3ca6d11928523f901176e873bdb5179d80d1f7 .

The Boston Globe digs back even further to 1994, when Romney called Gingrich's Contract with America a "mistake." Gingrich is trying to use this on the trail. "Today, Romney is trying to convince voters that, while he has switched positions on numerous issues, he is now an authentic conservative in the Reagan mold," Michael Kranish writes in the Glove. "In fact, yesterday in a Washington Post interview he said, '[Gingrich] was right; I was wrong. The Contract with America was a very effective political tool. I didn't think it would be. It certainly was.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsbe6926fd7ed4bf389ed652300ec19b756713b3e0f8b8d8f677ca881047bb775
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsbe6926fd7ed4bf389ed652300ec19b756713b3e0f8b8d8f677ca881047bb775

PERRY'S LAST STAND - EMBARKS ON BUS TOUR TODAY:"Rick Perry has a reputation as a campaigner in Texas: He's dangerous, but even more dangerous when he's down," Rebecca Kaplan writes for CBS/National Journal. "The next three weeks in Iowa will present him with the ultimate underdog challenge...Wednesday marks the beginning of a 14-day, 42-city bus tour that will see the Texas governor traverse the Hawkeye State, logging more than 1,000 miles as he strives to regain his standing among the top tier of candidates for the GOP nomination." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=351c8b947b4066b01abb65d8387eaed3051a469e0c5624aca98de50c6e4071
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=351c8b947b4066b01abb65d8387eaed3051a469e0c5624aca98de50c6e4071 . The LA Times' Seema Metha curtain raiser:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs65a2df243bb209db14a839ac8b5b158226bf076c4507d823bee170d7e0489e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs65a2df243bb209db14a839ac8b5b158226bf076c4507d823bee170d7e0489e .

"MOMENTUM":The Perry campaign put out a two-minute web videoyesterday afternoon with clips of commentators offering positive reviews of his performance in last Saturday's debate. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs8c65e0ff382f33286264ff876b4cbde4574da447a3e9e6cd096de02294e222
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs8c65e0ff382f33286264ff876b4cbde4574da447a3e9e6cd096de02294e222 .

SANTORUM HITS BACHMANN - TRYING TO EAT AWAY HER SUPPORT:Rick Santorum is stepping up efforts to try peeling support away from a second-tier opponent also playing hard for social conservatives. "Only four years in the House. I served four years in the House. I wasn't ready to be president after four years in the House of Representatives... The minority in the House is about as much Siberia as there is in Washington D.C.," he said as he campaigned in Iowa, per Dave Catanese. "Michele represents one of the most Republican districts in the state of Minnesota. She's had a tough time winning those districts every time. It's not like she's ever had any record of success of
attracting the kind of voters we need if we're going to win this." Separately, in an interview with POLITICO, he hit Gingrich and Romney:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs24c622b25671118b198dfa7949680a150d22c1e7cd3f6c2a3e9b7c06629297
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs24c622b25671118b198dfa7949680a150d22c1e7cd3f6c2a3e9b7c06629297 . Here's the Bachmann attack:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsb05a3503ba569bb2096600329c4e20a4e0d46a2d06f859357b1fed9a3ec7cd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsb05a3503ba569bb2096600329c4e20a4e0d46a2d06f859357b1fed9a3ec7cd .

SOUTH CAROLINA TALKER - GOP CHAIR QUESTIONS ROMNEY'S COMMITMENT TO STATE:'I have felt like he just assumed he can't win here,' Republican state Chairman Chad Connelly told National Journal on Tuesday. 'I think he's going to do much better than he thinks, but if he doesn't get here he's missing a golden opportunity...I've been begging for him to come up quite a bit more."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsd62f79a2a43d662e455e5c4011c7b5def0208866a7c7caa8a17059685d3c9d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsd62f79a2a43d662e455e5c4011c7b5def0208866a7c7caa8a17059685d3c9d

BACHMANN ENDORSEMENTS:"Michele Bachmann announced 19 additional members of her South Carolina Tea Party coalition today, including three who will serve as her regional co-chairs," per NBC. List:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qse9b9cd7a3df75f12e22e7a8342eba9f4008a310dff1f80451df3d5a2b3c62c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qse9b9cd7a3df75f12e22e7a8342eba9f4008a310dff1f80451df3d5a2b3c62c .

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO - NORTH CAROLINA TRIP:"Later in the morning, the President and the First Lady will travel to Ft. Bragg, North Carolina...While at Ft. Bragg, the President and the First Lady will deliver remarks to troops and military families. As we definitively end America's war in Iraq this month, the President wanted to speak directly to the troops at Ft. Bragg and to members of the Armed Forces and their families everywhere... In the afternoon, the President and the First Lady will return to Washington, DC...Later, the President will attend a campaign event in Washington, DC. This event is closed press."

POTUS LOCAL INTERVIEWS - "WE DIDN'T KNOW HOW BAD IT WAS":'I think we understood that it was bad, but we didn't know how bad it was," Obama said of the economy in an interview with KIRO in Seattle. 'I think I could have prepared the American people for how bad this was going to be, had we had a sense of that.' Jen Epstein: "Obama's comments came as he sat down with a string of local TV reporters on Tuesday morning to sell his proposal to extend the payroll tax cut while highlighting the end of the Iraq war. He also did brief interviews - all under 10 minutes - with WVEC in Norfolk, Va., WEAR in Pensacola, Fla., and KOAA in Colorado Springs, Colo." Story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsse370dd2b0bcf8dd057367cf40df41c1242a3a4927b4d49be970efa724cbde0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsse370dd2b0bcf8dd057367cf40df41c1242a3a4927b4d49be970efa724cbde0 . KIRO:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs>0c7e93ab00fe8b44084424e21f7feb4e23d622df809a20468a348bc0a4bdd8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs>0c7e93ab00fe8b44084424e21f7feb4e23d622df809a20468a348bc0a4bdd8 . WVEC:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsE171d98fb3cd14e431625145869eb91bbd03a25997387b5a7d41402c6dd7cff
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsE171d98fb3cd14e431625145869eb91bbd03a25997387b5a7d41402c6dd7cff . WEAR:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qska0ae35da0ddff94a47a9ca8b900d382ae554f9e5548c99035437964aaf3cc6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qska0ae35da0ddff94a47a9ca8b900d382ae554f9e5548c99035437964aaf3cc6 . KOAA:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs3342f4d515e7a54fde8b78286daaf4efa0f4bd641b69ff5eac317695fa339f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs3342f4d515e7a54fde8b78286daaf4efa0f4bd641b69ff5eac317695fa339f .

EXCLUSIVE - BLUE DOG PAC ENDORSES 5 CHALLENGERS:TheBlue Dog PAC will endorse Leonard Bembry (FL-2), Clark Hall (AR-1), Brendan Mullen (IN-2), Ted Vick (SC-7) and Rob Wallace (OK-2) later today. The midterm elections wiped out many of the moderates in the Democratic caucus, and the coalition is eager to repopulate its ranks.

SNEAK PEEK - AEI'S POLITICAL REPORT PROFILES EARLY STATES:The American Enterprise Institute looks at the nine swing states that have voted both Republican and Democratic since 1992. There's also a one-page profile of each of the early states with history, demographics and highlights from the '08 exit polls. This goes out later. Score readers can see it first:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs*c1af10faaeaef98e5c4fb888cc3703b8f9da482492af4e0317f77575b29ce0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs*c1af10faaeaef98e5c4fb888cc3703b8f9da482492af4e0317f77575b29ce0 .

PAYROLL POLITICS - REPUBLICANS GO ON MESSAGING OFFENSIVE:The House approved the Republican payroll tax holiday plan 234 to 193 Tuesday, a symbolic vote since the plan is DOA in the Senate and the White House has promised to veto. BUT the NRCC and the RNC went on a messaging offensive, using the statistics that have been peddled by Democrats about the harm of not extending the cut against them in a flurry of press releases.

THE ESTABLISHMENT WINS - BLUNT BEATS BACK JOHNSON CHALLENGE:Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), a Capitol Hill veteran who rose to House majority whip, defeated tea party Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) in a leadership race Tuesday for vice chairman of the Republican Conference. Despite broad backing from grassroots conservative activists, Johnson, a Wisconsin plastics manufacturer and political novice, couldn't overcome establishment support for Blunt, who benefited from relationships cultivated during his 14 year run in the House.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qseb2983af6dc0269ac6cf71455c96b4731b4b5100d179f2eabf36ec891469ab
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qseb2983af6dc0269ac6cf71455c96b4731b4b5100d179f2eabf36ec891469ab

PENNSYLVANIA REDISTRICTING - REPUBLICANS SHORE UP FRESHMEN:"The GOP-drawn plan, released by a state legislative redistricting panel, forces two Democrats into an incumbent vs. incumbent face-off for a southwestern Pennsylvania-based seat and shores up more than a half-dozen House Republicans," Alex Isenstadt writes. Four first-termers will be safer in the new map: Mike Kelly, Lou Barletta, Tom Marino, and Pat Meehan."Two longer-serving Republicans - Reps. Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent - were also drawn into safer seats." Alex's story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs15327db6dea64c489a82e0930954e43b9a60fe455ebc1f90a9e5de136ee137
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs15327db6dea64c489a82e0930954e43b9a60fe455ebc1f90a9e5de136ee137 . PoliticsPA says Dems are irate:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs74b707806c3e50ae9d84d2f67e06f9b87284b8aa3ec84183ced2e24205b6f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs74b707806c3e50ae9d84d2f67e06f9b87284b8aa3ec84183ced2e24205b6f9 . Jason Altmire and Mark Critz may need to face off:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs 7c89b530828b33e71c9ebe357f20d77541f63e01e05856dd9b38f82e353a66
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs 7c89b530828b33e71c9ebe357f20d77541f63e01e05856dd9b38f82e353a66 .

COLORADO HOUSE SNEAK PEEK - DIRTY DOZEN JOB KILLERS LIST:Compass Colorado, an independent conservative group, will release its 'Dirty Dozen Job Killers' list today. There will be individual web pages hitting the voting records of all 12. Two - Sal Pace and Joe Miklosi - are running for Congress. State Sen. Brandon Shaffer, who is running against Cory Gardner, did not make the list.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs
995f47a69d379c850e36c76eb231a9bca46bca6394661208cee259acd0f305
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs
995f47a69d379c850e36c76eb231a9bca46bca6394661208cee259acd0f305

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"I told my colleagues yesterday a bit of homespun wisdom that I got from an alderman in Chicago some years ago when one of his colleagues wanted to run for higher office and he was really dubious. He said, 'just remember the higher a monkey climbs on a pole, the more you can see his butt.' So, you know, the Speaker is very high on the pole right now and we'll see how people like the view.' - Obama strategist David Axelrod at a briefing for reporters yesterday
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsRbbea691eb0d94793bea6ee6c1955d3a0d4d9ff7c99b082e89d05bb3f292529
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qsRbbea691eb0d94793bea6ee6c1955d3a0d4d9ff7c99b082e89d05bb3f292529

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