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05/03/2016 06:25 AM EDT


By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)


Good Tuesday morning. DRIVING THE DAY -- "Trump closes out Indiana by looking past it ... pivots to Hillary," by Ben Schreckinger in South Bend: "Trump is over this primary. On the eve of [today's] Indiana's vote, with polls showing him well ahead of Ted Cruz, Trump spent his final day of campaigning here ... touting general election polling, lunching with [Ed Klein, the author of books that repeat salacious allegations against Bill and Hillary Clinton] ...

"[Trump said in South Bend:] 'Women are looking for security in our country and they know I'm going to do the best job ... When they called her on Benghazi she was sleeping, folks.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075ba41f72fb9e207232b814ea359653c794097e5b1a4b53387


--"Letter from Indiana" for Politico Magazine, "How Ted Cruz Got Indiana Wrong: The only problem with Cruz's socially conservative message? The voters he has to win over ... don't like it," by Adam Wren, Indianapolis Monthly contributing editor: "[T]here are signs that Trump is taking his ground game ... more seriously ... After the New England primaries, the campaign shifted 20 additional paid staffers to the state, doubling its operation.

"Over the weekend, ... [Trump's] campaign was on track to knock on 70,000 doors. 'We have a ground game that is second to none,' Rick Wiley, Trump's national political director, told me." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560750a2c177c3a813e7eef4466b8bc87ab602191bd41c6f7d2df


THE FALL FORETOLD ... Trump yesterday at rally in Carmel, Ind.: "[H]onestly, if we win Indiana, it's over. It's over. (APPLAUSE) They're finished. They're gone. ... I will promise you one thing. We will be the smart country from now on, not the dummies, OK? Not the dummies, because this is a movement that's going on. (APPLAUSE) ... We have a movement going on the likes of which this country has never seen they say. Time Magazine -- many covers of what's going on with the movement. I'm the messenger. This is the movement, and it's a movement like we've never ... like they've never seen. ...


"[N]ow, I'm going to start focusing on Hillary. That's going to be so easy, it's going to be so great. It's going to be so great. (APPLAUSE) Bad judgment. Crooked Hillary, remember? Crooked Hillary. Bad judgment. I didn't say it ... [I]t was said by Bernie ... [C]an I take heat if Bernie said it? So here's the story. Bernie said bad judgment, and it's true.

"Look at the e-mail scandal. That's bad judgment. You'd almost say: What is the purpose of doing it? It's just her. It's bad, bad judgment. It's also criminal, by the way, and a lot of bad things should happen. But we'll find out. We'll find out. It's a very criminal act. A lot of people have suffered greatly for doing much less."


--WashPost 2-col. lead, "Trump bid raises prospect of nasty general election: MOGUL LIKELY TO REMAIN OUTSPOKEN - Democrats learn from GOP field's pulled punches," by Dan Balz: Dan "Pfeiffer said ... aspects of Trump's message ... could appeal beyond the Republican base. 'If you take out his positions on immigration and women, he has the most pure, economic-populist reform message. He's got the best Republican message we've seen in a long time. Anti-trade, anti-Wall Street, anti-big-money-in-politics is very powerful.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c255607580a86395b7cf6846d80af1ba13683d2290fc6671229342b3


YOU'RE INVITED! Playbook Breakfast with RNC Chairman Reince Priebus on FRIDAY. Doors at 7:30 a.m.; program at 8 at Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill, 400 New Jersey Ave. NW. RSVP http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560752f7ec52ed0cfb1a6e431aeb16376d817b255ee0392912ead


INSIDE THE CAMPAIGNS -- "Trump far behind in preparing for general election," by AP's Steve Peoples and Jill Colvin: "Trump has so far ignored vital preparations ... has collected little information about tens of millions of voters he needs to turn out in the fall. He's sent few people to battleground states compared with ... Clinton, accumulated little if any research on her, and taken no steps to build a network capable of raising the roughly $1 billion needed to run a modern-day general election campaign. ...

"[T]he billionaire's aides [said] they'll tap into the resources of the party's establishment - the [RNC], above all ... That's even as he rails daily against his party's establishment as corrupt." With cameos from Ryan Williams, Corey, Sean Spicer http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560750e138626f4a0c5c3f6c13d4255e977a017df5f0f06fd6284

TRUMP EXPANDS MAP - "Once a Clinton stronghold, Appalachia now Trump country," by AP's Lisa Lerer in Ashland Ky., with Catherine Lucey in Des Moines: "Her husband won the White House in 1992 by wooing Southern swing voters in places such as Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee ... Trump ... could pose a threat to Clinton not only in the coal mining communities of Appalachia ... but also in parts of the Rust Belt and upper Midwest hit hard by the decline of domestic manufacturing. ...

"Democrats have lost support in Appalachia as the region has shed jobs in industries such as coal mining and as union membership has declined ... The leftward shift of the Democratic Party during the Obama administration on social issues, including gay marriage and gun control, hasn't helped."


--BUT, BUT, BUT ... "Trump may afford [Clinton] new opportunities to expand what's known as the Obama coalition: her aides calculate the billionaire's penchant for controversy could lead her to enough support among minority and female voters to put traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona into play." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075764222a72282451bd3e320024a77089d7722a40becc51eb4


TV TODAY: At noon on MSNBC, Andrea Mitchell interviews Hillary Clinton.


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CANDIDATE LINGO - Ben Terris on WashPost Style front, "There ain't no cure for the wonky talk blues": "'Tonight,' Cruz intoned, ... 'this campaign moves back to more favorable terrain!' ... This is strategist-speak ... It used to be that only staffers spoke this way: jargon-filled playbookese, such as the non-basketball use of the word 'pivot' and non-transportation use of the word 'lane.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560756cb2345935db27751eee0ba7957c33b40b15826fc2008993


DEM DRAMA -- Chris Krueger of Guggenheim Partners in his "D.C. Download": "Cancel my subscription to the resurrection - send my credentials to the House of Detention. We expect ... Trump winning all of Indiana's 57 delegates and becoming the defacto nominee ... increasing pressure on Bernie Sanders to drop out of the race given Hillary Clinton's insurmountable Super Delegate lead ... The GOP race should be pretty much over after Indiana, though the Democratic race will continue as Sanders is calling for a Contested Convention in Philadelphia over the Super Delegate issue/system.

"Barring a legal pitfall, Clinton is the nominee, though the Clinton campaign - and the Democratic Party - will need the support of the 74 year-old Socialist, his millennial hordes, and his internet fundraising money machine. So the GOP endgame is now set as the Democratic end game may have to wait for July 24 in Philadelphia."


RAW VOTES undercut Sanders claim - AP's Ken Thomas and Hope Yen: "Clinton ... has an edge of roughly 3 million raw votes. Clinton has received more than 12.2 million votes in primaries and caucuses to date, compared with 9.1 million for Sanders. Those numbers do not include Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Washington and Wyoming - caucus states where the AP tabulated delegate equivalents, not raw votes. Sanders won four of those six states." "Q&A: Sanders' long-shot bid to clinch Democratic nomination" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560756fa5090a3dd46d6104b05815e79c2995b5bdd7a5de636526


PRESIDENT CLINTON II - WashPost A1, above fold, "Can Clinton make good on immigration, guns?Promises on trail will require difficult fights on two fronts if she wins," by Anne Gearan and Paul Kane: "Without a dramatic Democratic sweep of Congress, few ... believe that either of these giant promises has a chance in January. ... Clinton is campaigning as the candidate of continuity - preserving what Democrats generally see as President Obama's gains and making changes on his domestic agenda only at the margins. ...

"Clinton and her allies in and out of Congress are gradually building a legislative agenda that would focus on immigration issues in Congress while mostly relying on the executive power of the presidency to further gun restrictions." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075dfe69869058d5d75ef2dd7082d3aad489a5f41101b110a35


THE NARRATIVE: Houston Chronicle front page, below fold, "Cruz holds on to hope in Indiana" ... WSJ 4-col. lead, "Front-Runners Seek to Close Deal" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560754b2b64569ecc60e211681ce89bf7c9a26aeae58456ed2e3b ... USA Today lead story, "The Donald stands on the brink in Indiana: As front-runner looks to lock it up, Cruz seeks lifeline." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560756844a0b6367ae2193d74f97dfa51caee6fd6b9ecf755eec4


--N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "TRUMP IS FAVORED IN INDIANA VOTE; CRUZ DRIVES HARD: CLEARER PATH FORWARD -- Loss Today Could Break Resistance to G.O.P. Front-Runner," by Alex Burns: "Marist College for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal found Mr. Trump leading Mr. Cruz by 15 points there, and close to capturing an outright majority of the vote. Gov. John Kasich of Ohio was in a distant third place." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560752ec56149e4226289c68e23467ce66dbc13838c28f55f8a1c


TIMELINE FOR TONIGHT - AP's Nancy Benac: "Polls close at 6 p.m. EDT in 80 of Indiana's 92 counties, and at 7 p.m. EDT in the rest of the state. So the vote count will have been under way for an hour in most of the state by 7 p.m., the earliest that a winner can be declared in either primary. In 2012, half the vote had been reported by 8 p.m., and 95 percent by 10 p.m. Four years earlier, half the votes were counted before 9 p.m. but the state didn't get to 90 percent until nearly 1 a.m." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075f1db2a549c93eb7111b4130bba5a94bc23a9e4f49108ee2f


AP DELEGATE TRACKER: Dems (2,383 to clinch): Clinton 2,165 (incl. 520 superdelegates; 218 short);Sanders 1,357 (incl. 39 superdelegates; 1,026 short) ...


-GOP (1,237 to win): Trump 996 (241 short); Cruz 565 (672 short); Kasich 153 (1,084 short). http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c255607514b2bb26e9c5e10a9f4cb91925012d08c3438b27a0d4f9c4


MONEY HONEYS - L.A. Times A1, below fold, "Cruz's wealthy donors like to follow the money: The campaign learns the risks of relying on strong-willed tycoons," by Joseph Tanfani and Noah Bierman: "[M]agnates ... demanded an unprecedented level of control in how their money is spent. One of the three primary donors to Cruz's presidential efforts, a private equity manager who recruited the other two top donors, has refrained from spending the vast majority of his $10 million contribution to bolster the Cruz campaign. He is instead fighting openly with the top strategist for the super PACs ... set up to spend the money." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560757a3995559f581919493dec5724f9560187fb0fcaa63e9afa

HOT VIDEO from the phone of Huffington Post's Ryan Grim when he confronted and taped Fox News reporter Jesse Watters at the MSNBC party after the White House Correspondents Dinner, which turned into a mini-fight. 6-min. video http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075cbe4873ef74b7780d1513faa2ee83fa446736d962f02bf9f

BEHIND THE CURTAIN - Don Stewart of Mitch McConnell's office (@StewSays): "According to WKRC reporter, local affiliates brought in to interview POTUS today had to ask at least one question about the #SCOTUS nominee."


--Per McConnell's office: "local TV stations [got] four whole minutes (standing up) with POTUS ... A quick cruise of the transcripts show that they met the minimum and then shifted to the issues that people back home really care about, including: jobs, the economy, and the opiate crisis- all of which the Senate has already acted on."

LAUNCHING TODAY -- Edelman has "launched an election-themed campaign ... WTF2016. WTF means... well, you know... and in this particular case, Washington Trust Forum. This follows past commentary we provided in previous cycles by our strong stable of political talent, Mike Deaver, Tony Blankley and Bob Shrum. In the coming months, we'll be sharing perspectives from Edelman leaders and outside experts and discussing lessons we've learned and can apply to our own campaigns." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c255607530617feaac5bd8fbde78832b4e34848e7f7cc5dbf294af6b

OUT TOMORROW - "The Democracy Fund ... is releasing a study tomorrow on Congress and the Public Trust. With input from former members of Congress, Capitol Hill staffers, lobbyists, journalists, and scholars studying Congress, the Democracy Fund has generated an initial map that provides a holistic picture of congressional dysfunction and helps to improve our understanding of how the institution can better fulfill its obligations to the American people." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560751933e777e5c0d7a560641aef9dd4c1d998c3029e6e250797 ... Blog post on the findings by the author, Betsy Wright Hawkings http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560750dfcc83f392ede21bdb866c42a6795ec4b07b2e5d20239fe

RE/CODE Decode podcast with Kara Swisher, whose interview with ex-Texas State Senator Wendy Davis included sexism in politics: "I certainly felt the sting of gender inequity, and yet when I was asked by the press, 'Do you feel like you're being treated differently because you're a women?' I answered, 'No.' And I answered 'no' because I was afraid of coming across as a victim. If I could go back and do it differently, I would." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075096100b1523b66fe7a8d9725cd011955835c8d85e8603a08


TRANSITIONS -- Haley Dorgan has joined Senator Shaheen's office as Press Secretary. She came from the comms firm Sunshine Sachs, where she worked in the NYC headquarters for three years and then the DC office for the last few months.

--"TSA chief Admiral Neffenger ... added ... to his communications team, in anticipation of the busy spring/summer travel season and the inevitable complaints about long security lines & ineffective TSA agents. Richard Ades, a veteran of the Agriculture Department in the Clinton Administration and a highly regarded Washington crisis & public policy communications guru quietly began leading the communications team at the agency in early April."

--"Lara Brown Named Interim Director" of GW's Graduate School of Political Management: "begins ... July 1. She is replacing Mark Kennedy, who is leaving GW to become president of the University of North Dakota. ... Dr. Brown previously served as an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Villanova University. Dr. Brown also served in President Bill Clinton's administration at the Education Department." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560753b9daadda1fd026994e2e03fd3e34cffd12e43249bb5f82a

FIRST LOOK - "Atlantic Council will name Frederic C. Hof, former US Special Adviser for transition in Syria, as Vice President and Director of its Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. Hof has been a Senior Fellow for the Hariri Center since November 2012, and is one of the world's foremost experts on the ongoing Syria crisis."

--"Slaughter Announces Departure of Longtime Rules Committee Staffer Miles Lackey": "[A]fter more than 25 years of public service, Democratic Staff Director Miles Lackey will be leaving the Rules Committee at the end of May. Slaughter has named Don Sisson, currently Special Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs at the White House, ... as the new staff director ... Sisson previously served as ... Deputy Staff Director. ...

"Lackey's record ... includes service as chief of staff to two U.S. senators and as a senior official in the Clinton White House. Lackey has made a significant contribution to many landmark pieces of legislation over the last 20 years, including the Affordable Care Act and the Wall Street reform bill. Later this year, Lackey will be moving to New York City to serve on the staff of Trinity Church, an historic Episcopal parish in Lower Manhattan."

WEEKEND WEDDINGS: Nick Juliano, deputy energy editor at Politico, to Madison Bolls, Grants Management Specialist at the Institute of Museum and Library Services were married on the banks of the James River in Richmond on Saturday. Bridesmaids Kate Blevins and Monica Watson; Groomsmen Michael Juliano and Joshua Culling; the couples dog, Teddy (who played his part as ring bearer perfectly); and many friends and family danced the night away at The Boathouse at Rocketts Landing. Table center pieces were vintage books and guests found their seats by way of Card Catalog cards from the Library of Congress. Pics http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560755054e2d383097f3e0fef848eb3ff7dfb5f006661ba905d05 ...
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560751504e843c20e2756b9862276b12ba3da89b4d4ffa418f535 ... http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c25560755a3944826ba843379938e6a81ca52209ca3b07da4bcbbfa2

SPORTS BLINK - GREGORY ZUCKERMAN, a senior writer at the Wall Street Journal, has a new book out today, "Rising Above: How 11 Athletes Overcame Challenges in Their Youth to Become Stars,": "The book tells the behind-the scenes stories of how 11 sports stars, including Stephen Curry, Tim Howard, LeBron James and R.A. Dickey, overcame imposing obstacles and dealt with physical differences in their youth."$13.73 on Amazon http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075d1b728fb82d2bccdf01d46a47680f4a27c0f1db8705ac7a5

BIRTHDAYS: Willie Geist, the pride of Vanderbilt, is 41 ... EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy ... Vince Harris, Austin-based digital campaign whiz and CEO of Harris Media ... Today is the only day when three senators share a birthday: Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) will be 73, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will be 67 and Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) will be 55 ... Ben Ginsberg, celebrating by spending the next couple days babysitting his grandson while Joahn and Josh are in NY so he is having a great birthday! (h/t Josh) ... country music superstar Eric "The Chief" Church, the reason why Kurt Bardella is a country music fan (h/t Morning Hangover) ... Mickey Munley ... Sonja Newenhouse (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
... Chip Rogers, president and CEO of the Asian American Hotel Owners Association, is 43 (h/t Brandon VerVelde) ...

... Stephen Krupin, who recently joined the White House speechwriting team, alum of SKDKnickerbocker, State and OFA re-elect, and was notoriously named "The Unluckiest Fan in America" by Sports Illustrated http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4d0d73b0c2556075e369f105cca9acfec485abced72c5d1b50bef89584dbe313 (h/t Rachel Racusen) ... Poland is 225 years old on its Constitution Day (h/t @BCIU) ... GOP insider Scott Kamins of Burton Kamins Advocacy and a Condi, RNC alum ... SRN News White House correspondent Greg Clugston ... SRN News Senate correspondent Linda Kenyon (h/ts Ken Lormand) ... Katie Farrar (née Killoren), alum of Rep. Walter B. Jones and real estate agent extraordinaire (hubby tip: Doug Farrar) ... Meredith Slesinger, Amtrak's
strategy director for Northeast Corridor business development (hubby tip: Colin Finan) ...

... Max Burns, Change.org's DC comms lead, handling all US political press (h/t Ben Lowe) ... Andy Miga, pride of Winchester, Mass. ... Art Jaeger, Bronze Star for service as an Army journalist in Vietnam, and rocks a bow tie every day ... Democracy Works founder and executive director Seth Flaxman ... Stephen Labaton, president at Finsbury and NYT alum ... Andrew Nagorski ... Brenna Marron, DCCC alum now director of scheduling for the Transportation Secretary ... Matt Gustavson, deputy director of information Services at The White House ... Ben Crair ... Susan Steinmetz, EVP for Program Development and Management at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities ... Marisol Garibay of American
Action Forum ... Spencer Gaffney ... Roy Temple, chairman of Missouri Democratic Party and partner at GPS Impact ...

... Tim Mulvey, Democratic comms. director of House Foreign Affairs Committee and pride of Cincy ... Mickey Munley ... Rob Jones, CEO of Alliance Group ... Sonja Newenhouse ... Melissa Wideman ... Paul Kangas ... Steele Burrow ... Jason Killian Meath ... Lauren Gautier ... movie historian and TV host Robert Osborne is 84 ... Frankie Valli is 82 ... sports announcer Greg Gumbel is 70 ... Christopher Cross is 65 ... Tanya Wright ("Orange is the New Black") is 38 ... Zoe De Grand Maison ("Orphan Black") is 21 (h/ts AP)

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