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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

NEW PERRY AD - "PRESIDENT OF HONOR" FEATURES VETERANS:The Perry campaign is putting a 60-second TV ad called "President of Honor" into its Iowa broadcast and cable rotation over the holidays. The bio spot is built around testimonials about the Texas governor. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=66ac6465d3b993ac43c964368c469ba1e3d1b26dd5178406163688dec1804382
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=66ac6465d3b993ac43c964368c469ba1e3d1b26dd5178406163688dec1804382 .

FIRST IN SCORE - CROSSROADS MEMO SUGGESTS POST-PAYROLL MESSAGE:In the wake of House Republicans caving on the payroll tax, American Crossroads President Steven Law will distribute a memo to conservative partners this morning urging an attack on President Obama for not empowering his economic team. "The entire structure and focus of the Obama White House are centered on reelection, not recovery," Law writes. "Where is the current head of Obama's council of economic advisors? The head of Obama's National Economic Council? Can most Washington reporters even name them? And where is Tim Geithner, whom Obama once compared favorably to Alexander Hamilton? Where is Secretary Sebelius, talking about
the jobs ObamaCare was supposed to save? ... Instead, this Administration's 'economic team' is David Axelrod and David Plouffe and Jay Carney, because all they want to do - all they can do - is politics." Read Law's memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945faaaffc699fd38f4bb79a618911efdd527bd32d353b12b29
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945faaaffc699fd38f4bb79a618911efdd527bd32d353b12b29 .

PAYROLL POLITICS - "THE BEST YOU CAN SAY ABOUT THIS MELODRAMA IS THAT IT'S OVER":"President Obama will take a victory lap, and he played his hand well if cynically," the Wall Street Journal editorial board writes on of the capitulation-of/deal-agreed-to-by Speaker John Boehner. "The only purpose of this tax holiday was political, and the House Republican mistake was falling into the President's trap... Republicans do need to fight for their priorities, but it helps to pick the right fights."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c039453a09dbf12da9ad7aa66791164c53162dcae62d902df71b34
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c039453a09dbf12da9ad7aa66791164c53162dcae62d902df71b34

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:Today is the last day with public schedules for the candidates until Tuesday. Romney wraps up his bus tour in New Hampshire with stops in Tilton and Concord. Gingrich hosts a town hall meeting in Columbia, South Carolina, at 12:30. Bachmann's bus tour continues with six more Iowa stops before a Christmas hiatus. Perry headed back to Austin yesterday after wrapping up the first leg of his Iowa tour (he's back on Dec. 27):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945447272ddda54b0e06aa47eb69f9be77bb083bb5ca65912df
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945447272ddda54b0e06aa47eb69f9be77bb083bb5ca65912df . The 2012 calendar:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c039452bf5b51cc23612325a0fdaa2e9795cf3799c50d2075f63db
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c039452bf5b51cc23612325a0fdaa2e9795cf3799c50d2075f63db .

** As voters flee both parties, the newsletters keep dogging Paul and Q4 fundraising wraps up, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

SILENT NIGHT - RESTORE OUR FUTURE WON'T RUN GINGRICH HITS OVER THE WEEKEND:Perry's spot stays entirely positive, as did the Rand Paul ad we told you about yesterday. Watch for a lot of the negative attacks to get curtailed tomorrow and Sunday in the early states. Restore our Future, the independent Super PAC deluging Iowans with attack ads on Gingrich, will not broadcast them Saturday or Sunday. Then, after Christmas, it's game on:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945a39bf1f5dd8ab9d3ed06328f21abf545e12225a6a1d2b3ea
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945a39bf1f5dd8ab9d3ed06328f21abf545e12225a6a1d2b3ea .NBC's Alex Moe gets a hold of Restore our Future's Christmas-themed mailer attacking Gingrich:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c0394542e288f327c882e080b2d8d957bd21afab3e2f2ec13790f1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c0394542e288f327c882e080b2d8d957bd21afab3e2f2ec13790f1 .

"HE NEEDED MONEY" - VANDER PLAATS' SANTORUM ENDORSEMENT COMES UNDER CLOUD:This is the lead in today's Des Moines Register story by Jennifer Jacobs: "Iowa Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats didn't require money in exchange for his endorsement, he said Thursday, but presidential candidate Rick Santorum says Vander Plaats told him 'he needed money' to promote his eventual endorsement. The effort to advertise the endorsement has started: Iowans on Thursday began getting robo-calls that feature Vander Plaats' voice talking up Santorum. The calls say they were paid for by a so-called super PAC, or political action committee, called 'Leaders for Families.' The situation has raised
questions about whether any federal rules that prohibit coordination between a campaign and an outside group were broken."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c0394520d863645bfb5a15bb1d939cb5a2c1a7277fbfa4b36ab8b2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c0394520d863645bfb5a15bb1d939cb5a2c1a7277fbfa4b36ab8b2

SANTORUM'S NEW AD: "Rick Santorum's campaign will release a new 60-second ad in Iowa this morning -- an upbeat spot in the style of VH1's 'Pop Up Video,' emphasizing Santorum's credentials as a family man and cultural conservative," scoops Alex Burns. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945927649a950990aa5f1b8709b426567ec8ff44f47d5d60d86
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945927649a950990aa5f1b8709b426567ec8ff44f47d5d60d86 .

FUNDRAISING -

ROMNEY WILL RAISE 20+ MILLION IN Q4:"Romney is set to close out the fourth fundraising quarter of the year with his largest haul yet of at least $20 million, several fundraising sources told POLITICO," per Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Martin. "The numbers will be well north of the $18 million he raised between April and June. The sources said that his overall take of the year - his campaign raised funds starting in April - is on track to be roughly $50 million, the sources said. While there is still a week left in the quarter, high-dollar fundraising is essentially finished for the season thanks to the holidays - and Romney is closing strong."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c039457c9b4af0caadf8fe0122d9802740185983ff1e6283c05262
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c039457c9b4af0caadf8fe0122d9802740185983ff1e6283c05262

GINGRICH SETS $10 MILLION BENCHMARK:"I think we will report being very close to the amount [John] McCain raised in 2007, which will be compared to where I was in July as close to a miracle as you're going to get in politics," he told reporters after a speech in Richmond yesterday. McCain raised $9.9 million in the last three months of 2007. He went into the election year with $2.9 million cash on hand. Gingrich raised $807,000 in the third quarter, ending the last quarter still owning $1.1 million. Gingrich's spokesman said earlier that they raised $4 million in the first half of the fourth quarter.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945f01c6913b46487a602bcee6e44616450df104fe5e0431031
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=67ce640888c03945f01c6913b46487a602bcee6e44616450df104fe5e0431031

NEWT ATTACKS - RACE BETWEEN "SOUTHERN CONSERVATIVE" AND "MASSACHUSETTS MODERATE":Gingrich claimed in Richmond that his goal is to finish "in the top three or four" in Iowa, "in the top two in New Hampshire and then to win South Carolina and Florida." He suggested that the deluge of attacks from super PACs backing Romney lowers the bar for where he needs to finish in the Jan. 3 caucuses to stay viable. "There was a period when I was the frontrunner, but frankly if you get $7 [million] or $9 million in ads - most of them false - the sheer weight of negativity has a real impact."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab86f51db23b6f2af99e48b8972975a09cb3a87c32e5ddd77d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab86f51db23b6f2af99e48b8972975a09cb3a87c32e5ddd77d

NEWT HAMPSHIRE - GINGRICH IS NOT CATCHING FIRE:Gingrich, politicos there say, has largely failed to capitalize on the once-electric interest in his candidacy with a clear economic message and the personal presence New Hampshire voters expect. Without a deeply rooted local base of support, Gingrich won't have this state to fall back on if his prospects continue to falter in Iowa and nationally," Burns writes in the story leading our site.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fabe844b7c84db366cd87bcb3735a1e711163e76e9801ba268d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fabe844b7c84db366cd87bcb3735a1e711163e76e9801ba268d

EARN IT - UNION LEADER CALLS ON ROMNEY TO DEBATE GINGRICH:"The lack of a robust retail primary this time has aided Romney's effort immensely," according to an editorial in today's Gingrich-backing Union Leader. "Romney, being the front-runner, and a careful one at that, has nothing to gain from accepting [Gingrich's one-on-one debate] challenge - which is why he's already declined it. Why would he take that kind of risk? ... New Hampshire voters should tell Romney that if he really wants to earn it, he can join Gingrich for a real New Hampshire town hall meeting - one in which voters get to ask questions and hear the candidates answer in more than 30-second soundbites. Let Romney
show that he's really earning it."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab59d47389c0257825120aa6e6c308d9af2f00f4df289cacf3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab59d47389c0257825120aa6e6c308d9af2f00f4df289cacf3

BUSH 41 BACKS ROMNEY - STILL BITTER OVER GINGRICH'S 1990 DOUBLE CROSS:George H.W. Bush told the Houston Chronicle that he supports Romney because of his "stability, experience, [and] principles. "I just think he's mature and reasonable - not a bomb-thrower," Bush said. The Chronicle's Joe Holley: "Choosing his words carefully, the former president said he knew Gingrich relatively well. 'I'm not his biggest advocate,' he said. 'I had a conflict with him at one point,' Bush recalled, alluding to the crucial moment in 1990 when a recession drove him to renege on his 'no new taxes' pledge. He needed a bipartisan group of party leaders, including then-House Whip Gingrich, to stand with him. 'He
was there, right outside the Oval Office. I met with all the Republican leaders, all the Democratic leaders,' Bush recalled. 'The plan was, we were all going to walk out into the Rose Garden and announce this deal. Newt was right there. Got ready to go out in the Rose Garden, and I said, 'Where's Gingrich?' Went up to Capitol Hill. He was here a minute ago. Went up there and started lobbying against the thing.'... 'He told me one time later on,' he said, 'This is the most difficult thing I ever had to do.' I said, 'I didn't like it much myself, Newt.' "
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab58c49fe78f00a60180e1fa572157e100796fa4bd6357e798
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab58c49fe78f00a60180e1fa572157e100796fa4bd6357e798

TAX RETURNS - ROMNEY WON'T RELEASE, GINGRICH WOULD:"Romney said yesterday he has no current plans to release his tax returns, and suggested that he would not shrink from using a controversial provision of the tax code that allows him to pay at just a 15 percent rate on income he continues to receive from Bain Capital," the Boston Globe reports. 'We don't have any current plans to release tax returns, but never say never,'' he said yesterday after greeting voters at an Agway farm and hardware store here."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab7344d3672b6e342b2721d64736ccc321ff6fdf930790980f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab7344d3672b6e342b2721d64736ccc321ff6fdf930790980f

In response, Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond emailed reporters: "Just in case you were curious, Newt Gingrich plans to release his income tax returns if he is the GOP nominee."

VIRGINIA BALLOT - THREE CANDIDATES DON'T GET 10K SIGNATURES:Bachmann, Huntsman, and Santorum will not be on the ballot for Virginia's March 6 primary. They failed to get 10,000 signatures needed by yesterday's deadline. CNN reports that Romney, Perry, Paul and Gingrich beat the threshold.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab1337879228ee9aee57255de387a70e9974183332b9bc4229
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab1337879228ee9aee57255de387a70e9974183332b9bc4229

PAUL SCRUTINY INTENSIFIES -

USA TODAY - "1995 VIDEOS SHOW PAUL DISCUSSING NEWSLETTERS":"Although he now says he did not write them and knew little of their contents, [Paul] described specifically his controversial newsletters in a 1995 C-SPAN interview made when he was seeking to return to Congress... Paul campaign spokesman Jesse Benton said that in the C-SPAN interview Paul was describing an investment newsletter, one of several published by Ron Paul & Associates, his company. The controversial remarks were made in a newsletter called The Ron Paul Survival Report, he said."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab1aa9d1e1e4e86c26a003917b30ecfae7dfc618f7062f74b6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab1aa9d1e1e4e86c26a003917b30ecfae7dfc618f7062f74b6

WEEKLY STANDARD - MAINSTREAM MEDIA COVERING FOR PAUL:James Kirchick, who wrote about the newsletters in January 2008 for the New Republic, takes to the Weekly Standard to rehash racist statements and conspiracy theories in Ron Paul's Political Report. Paul has repudiated and distanced himself from the newsletter. "This sordid history would not bear repeating but for the fact that the media love to portray Paul as a truth-telling, antiwar Republican standing up to the 'hawkish' conservative establishment," Kirchick says. "Otherwise, the newsletters, and Paul's continued failure to name their author, would be mentioned in every story about him, and he would be relegated to the fringe where he
belongs."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab9203393c4ade801646e8f0129e00598f5c07681649b17ca7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab9203393c4ade801646e8f0129e00598f5c07681649b17ca7

A PREVIEW OF WHAT'S COMING - THERE'S MORE THAN THE NEWSLETTERS:Ginger Gibson identifies SIX statements not related to the newsletters that Paul will need to deal with if he wins Iowa: 1.Calling Ronald Reagan's conservative agenda a "disaster." 2. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are unconstitutional. 3. American drug laws are designed to fund rogue governments, CIA programs.4.U.S. foreign policy "significantly contributed" to 9/11 attacks.5.Returning white supremacist donation is "pandering." 6. The Civil Rights Act "violated the Constitution."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fabac725598aecbf1e42585a71920e139062300acc220209e80
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fabac725598aecbf1e42585a71920e139062300acc220209e80

MEANWHILE - PAULSTAYS ON MESSAGE:"While other campaigns tinker with messaging following a polling surge, Paul has made no such recalibration," Dave Catanese wrote yesterday from Dubuque. "His stump speech, which clocks in at about 40 minutes, is the same liberty-loving, Fed-bashing, anti-interventionist riff that grew his national following four years ago." CNN highlights a Democrat who asked during the town hall how she could help Paul:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab2bcedce19c823461d606ad70c24e52bc678736be2957ef52
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d3ccf08977cd5fab2bcedce19c823461d606ad70c24e52bc678736be2957ef52 . Dave's story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37dc31508ca62a6fa7e1a69486df418b2bbfc84a766bf74e32
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37dc31508ca62a6fa7e1a69486df418b2bbfc84a766bf74e32 .

SAYS ESTABLISHMENT COULDN'T DISMISS AN IOWA WIN:'I don't know why we have elections if they don't mean anything,' the Texas congressman told National Journal/CBS News in an interview late Wednesday -- though he added that 'If you win one caucus, it doesn't guarantee anything.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37b43e0753c5c562cefa36df390b1f0f6143948ce765cbb31e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37b43e0753c5c562cefa36df390b1f0f6143948ce765cbb31e

POLLING - MUCH MORE INTENSE FEELINGS ABOUT GINGRICH THAN ROMNEY:"With Gallup Positive Intensity Scores of +14 from Republicans and -37 from Democrats, Newt Gingrich sparks the strongest partisan reactions of any of the seven major Republican candidates," according to Gallup. "Romney generates positive intensity from Republicans that is nearly as high as Gingrich's, +12, but has much higher positive intensity from Democrats than Gingrich does: -12." That's mild compared with views of President Obama. "His positive intensity ratings are +27 from Democrats and a striking -50 from Republicans."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37b78aa214c2807dbe16e6e6b43ff28bb426e2a323af84acec
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37b78aa214c2807dbe16e6e6b43ff28bb426e2a323af84acec

CONSERVATIVES HISTORICALLY OVERPERFORM AT CAUCUS:Nate Silver looks at the difference between the last polling out of Iowa and the final results of the caucuses."Historically, most of the candidates who have beaten the polls by a wide margin on caucus night have been staunchly conservative," he writes. "The big overachievers include Pat Robertson in 1988, Pat Buchanan in 1996, Mike Huckabee in 2008, and Alan Keyes on two occasions. Steve Forbes did much better than his polls in 2000, after he had had shifted to the right on social issues, hoping to cultivate the evangelical vote. By contrast, most of the candidates who underachieved their polls were moderates compared with the other
Republicans in their field, had the strong backing of the party establishment, or both."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37a15d1fd5b5f9313e7860554dcb6ee0f201ca5510131853f4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37a15d1fd5b5f9313e7860554dcb6ee0f201ca5510131853f4

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO: No public events scheduled. He'll probably fly to Hawaii today.

PARTY REGISTRATION - VOTERS LEAVING GOP, DEMS IN DROVES:"More than 2.5 million voters have left the Democratic and Republican parties since the 2008 elections, while the number of independent voters continues to grow. A USA TODAY analysis of state voter registration statistics shows registered Democrats declined in 25 of the 28 states that register voters by party. Republicans dipped in 21 states, while independents increased in 18 states. The trend is acute in states that are key to next year's presidential race. In the eight swing states that register voters by party, Democrats' registration is down by 800,000 and Republicans' by 350,000. Independents have gained 325,000."
Here's a story that neither the RNC nor DNC war rooms will blast about one of the continuing trends of modern politics:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37a3ab9d4bd7da1d8ac7e79096f10ab31e983f4487efe16a2d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e37a3ab9d4bd7da1d8ac7e79096f10ab31e983f4487efe16a2d .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"For the first - I don't know - 10 years of our marriage, I'd buy her clothing all the time. And she would say, 'Oh, this is so nice.' And then it was gone a week later. And so I've tried to wise up a little bit. I don't buy her clothes anymore." - Mitt Romney talking to reporters about buying Christmas gifts for Ann
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e371085ba6fe65eedbcb3f90cd9df99720550090012c819e9e3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=99cf0f5ff3ab3e371085ba6fe65eedbcb3f90cd9df99720550090012c819e9e3

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