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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

Good morning from DUBUQUE, Iowa, where only two weeks remain until the caucuses.

EXCLUSIVE - PAUL'S NEW AD:Ron Paul's new commercial presents the Texas congressman as the unique and consistent outsider in the race. A narrator doesn't mention his opponents by name, but Newt Gingrich's photo appears under the caption "insider deals" and Mitt Romney is grouped with President Obama under the label "smooth-talking politicians." Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann also make cameos. "The One, Part 2" is a one-minute spot that will be airing on broadcast and cable in Iowa and New Hampshire. It's a repackaged version of a similar spot the campaign put out a while back, but this one includes more Gingrich footage. It is the first of several ads that the Texas congressman's campaign
will drop this week as part of their multi-million dollar ad push. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c4cf8e1c456ebf27fb4eb66b15c58b3fc45a728a774d71e4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c4cf8e1c456ebf27fb4eb66b15c58b3fc45a728a774d71e4 .

SNEAK PEEK - CAMP TO ENDORSE ROMNEY:House Ways And Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp will endorse Mitt Romney today. The Michigan congressman will serve as a member of Mitt Romney's National Advisory Committee. "No candidate in this race will be more committed to getting Michigan on a path to recovery than Mitt Romney who was born and raised here," Camp says in a forthcoming statement, which touts his record as governor of Massachusetts. Romney will also announce the support of over three dozen Republicans from New York. See the full list:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe93b0a37f634a8214eff843264b430bfa259fa7205ac29eb86
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe93b0a37f634a8214eff843264b430bfa259fa7205ac29eb86 .

FIRST IN SCORE - WILDMON TO ENDORSE GINGRICH:Rev. Donald E. Wildmon, founder and chairman of the American Family Association and American Family Radio, plans to endorse the former Speaker of the House today. 'Newt Gingrich recognizes the threat to our country posed by judges and lawyers imposing values upon the country inconsistent with our religious heritage, and has proposed constitutional steps to bring the courts back in balance under the constitution," he says. AFR has 190 radio stations in 20 states, six of which are in Iowa, including Burlington, Dubuque, Mason City, Ottumwa, Sioux City and Waverly, the forthcoming announcement notes. Wildmon lives in Mississippi, where the
association is headquartered, but he plans to travel to Iowa to act as a Gingrich surrogate at some point in the next two weeks.

PERRY THE POPULIST - NEW AD HITS ROMNEY, GINGRICH:RickPerry's newest campaign commercial is called "Three Streets." It hits Gingrich as a creature of K Street and Romney as a product of Wall Street. Perry is described as hailing from Main Street. Trying harder than ever to position himself as "the only true outsider" in the race, linking Washington with Wall Street has become a central part of Perry's stump speech. It allows him to tar Romney for his experience at Bain Capital and Gingrich for offering his services to Freddie Mac in one swipe."This Wall Street bailout is the single biggest act of theft in American history. And Newt and Mitt - they were for it," he told voters during a bus
tour stop here in eastern Iowa yesterday. My story from the bus tour on Perry's effort to prime the well of populism:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe90cf1238e86fff390054c959f1882eb4497f9511fb5ad46f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe90cf1238e86fff390054c959f1882eb4497f9511fb5ad46f9 . Watch the 30-second ad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c59663a3b27ed4cd7cfb3f9c39d0fb6d66c81a0750775d76
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c59663a3b27ed4cd7cfb3f9c39d0fb6d66c81a0750775d76 .

** As Gingrich puts 200k on Iowa TV, Romney picks a fight over his war on the courts and scrutiny of Paul ratchets up, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

TOP TALKER - IOWA ESTABLISHMENT PANICS ABOUT PAUL:"In spin rooms, bar rooms and online forums, the what-to-do-about-Paul conversation has become pervasive as polls show him at or near the top here just weeks before the January 3rd vote," Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns write in the story leading our site this morning. "Paul poses an existential threat to the state's cherished kick-off status, say these [elite] Republicans, because he has little chance to win the GOP nomination and would offer the best evidence yet that the caucuses reward candidates who are unrepresentative of the broader party."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe93f83117786c5a298cb24489c5fa50d216907305f6a24407c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe93f83117786c5a298cb24489c5fa50d216907305f6a24407c

NEW POLLING - THE ONSLAUGHT AGAINST GINGRICH IS WORKING:

WAPO/ABC - GINGRICH, ROMNEY TIE AT 30 NATIONALLY: Paul is in third and all the others are in single digits in the new ABC/Washington Post poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Among "very conservative" voters, Gingrich leads 36 to 22. "Romney has a 10-point advantage on the key question of who Republicans think is most likely to beat Obama," Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write in today's Post. "Romney also leads Gingrich when it comes to dealing with issue No. 1, the economy. Gingrich counters with a big advantage on experience: By about 2 to 1, more see him as having the best resume for the White House and as being the most qualified to be commander in chief. In other ways, the
two are evenly matched. They are tied at 23 percent on which best reflects the core values of the Republican Party. They run about equal on which 'is closer to you on issues.'" ABC analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9aeac4b5a79c522beaac857a30cdc3b695db3fc090f96d9e5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9aeac4b5a79c522beaac857a30cdc3b695db3fc090f96d9e5 . 14 pages of top lines:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9f86ee3fda3a547c56ad2f1a4c9fb2ed2c241ac34e48d1aa6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9f86ee3fda3a547c56ad2f1a4c9fb2ed2c241ac34e48d1aa6 . Post story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9563ace5944b2d2f20da5ee071214197198aebb773778cfa8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9563ace5944b2d2f20da5ee071214197198aebb773778cfa8 .

CNN/ORC - ROMNEY, GINGRICH TIE AT 28:"In CNN's previous national poll, conducted last month, Gingrich held a 24%-20% margin over Romney."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe99e9e085222fd0ae8cc01e1a411c0ff8d55417a0c87f2f8df
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe99e9e085222fd0ae8cc01e1a411c0ff8d55417a0c87f2f8df

GALLUP - STATISTICALLY TIED AT 26-24:Less than three weeks ago, Gallup had Newt up 15 nationally. Now he edged Romney out by two. Check out this pretty dramatic chart of their daily tracking poll shows the dramatic decline (all while Romney holds steady in the low 20s):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe97a8beb0a4439a60f90ac9cefd6d0e34416ea665aaa559534
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe97a8beb0a4439a60f90ac9cefd6d0e34416ea665aaa559534 .

CLEMSON - GINGRICH LEADS IN SOUTH CAROLINA:AClemson University poll out yesterday gave Gingrich 38 percent to Romney's 21 and Paul's 10. Trailing behind: Perry, 5; Bachmann, 5; Huntsman, 3; Santorum, 2. BUT only 32 percent said they've decided on a candidate, and the poll was in the field from Dec. 6-19. That's an ETERNITY in a race as fluid as this one, so take the size of Gingrich's lead with a BIG tablespoon of salt. Also, a quick note to whoever wrote the university's press release: it doesn't help your poll's credibility when Bachmann's first name is spelled with two L's:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe976bb2e9fb7f46a88d7844e543460fdc8a1710cba9c4738a9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe976bb2e9fb7f46a88d7844e543460fdc8a1710cba9c4738a9 .

PPP - ROMNEY FIREWALL HOLDING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE:Gingrich is third in a Public Policy Polling survey released last night of likely New Hampshire primary voters. Romney gets 30; Paul, 19; Gingrich, 17; and Huntsman, 13. Gingrich's favorable-unfavorable in the Democratic poll is 42-51:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe90409b6eac835b9ac2ecc0ef9acd9925081046181d3cc0724
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe90409b6eac835b9ac2ecc0ef9acd9925081046181d3cc0724 .

WHY IS NEWT COLLAPSING? - FREDDIE ATTACKS STICKING:"By 44 percent to 33 percent, Republicans surveyed say they have an unfavorable view of the political work he has done since leaving office," according to the Washington Post's write-up of their poll. "About three in 10 of his supporters have negative views of his activity since leaving the speaker's office, and among GOP-leaning independents, 53 percent say they view that work unfavorably."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9563ace5944b2d2f20da5ee071214197198aebb773778cfa8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9563ace5944b2d2f20da5ee071214197198aebb773778cfa8

"REPREHENSIBLE" - GINGRICH LASHES OUT AT OPPONENTS:"It's candidly very disappointing to see some of my friends who are running put out so much negative junk,' Gingrich told voters at a security firm in Davenport, per the Los Angeles Times. "Though he declined to criticize them by name and said he would continue to run a positive campaign, Gingrich's disdain for his rivals was palpable. 'I really wish they would have the courage to be positive, and I wish they would have the courage to have a campaign which would match ideas [rather] than see whose consultants can be the nastier,' he said." Later he suggested that candidates should be held accountable for the ads their independent
super PACs air.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9ff09e1f980eee9bcabd293f92e4c8fac8ed21f44b9fe633b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9ff09e1f980eee9bcabd293f92e4c8fac8ed21f44b9fe633b

DAUGHTER DEFENDS NEWT ON THE TRAIL IN SOUTH CAROLINA:"Not fifteen minutes into her second campaign event of the day [in South Carolina], Newt Gingrich's daughter Jackie Gingrich Cushman got the question [about her dad's three marriages] she seems to have come to expect," NBC's Ali Weinberg reports from Columbia, South Carolina. "Most families have gone through terrible things, whether it's divorce or tragedy. That's life," she tells the woman. "We've healed, we've reconciled." Cushman says in an interview that she tries to "frame it in a way that makes sense and resonates with people." More: "In fact, several times during her five-stop jaunt through South Carolina's Upstate, Cushman chose
to address the divorce issue head on, using a half/serious, half/humorous anecdote about when her father and then-boyfriend Jimmy Cushman met for the first time, at a bar."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9fd5e41057a068c2a5002f8f65749514e9eafa297298fbd62
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9fd5e41057a068c2a5002f8f65749514e9eafa297298fbd62

AIR WAR - GINGRICH'S $222K IOWA BUY IS COMPARATIVELY SMALL:"In his largest Iowa ad buy to date, Mr. Gingrich has reserved $222,228 in Iowa TV time this week, according to numbers tallied by a media buyer tracking the race," the Wall Street Journal reports. "By comparison, allies to Mr. Romney have reserved more than $700,000 in air time, with an additional $260,000 in air time purchased by the Romney campaign. The Perry campaign will spend roughly $560,000, and a group supporting it will spend another $255,000."AP reports that more than $1 million has already been spent on ads to attack Gingrich in Iowa:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe914bad0a1a604190cdd5005e61b0a65d0a4345343b3e6d512
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe914bad0a1a604190cdd5005e61b0a65d0a4345343b3e6d512 . The Journal story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9d269863d4c79c7668bc0f989456769e23c741dee83e3c7e6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9d269863d4c79c7668bc0f989456769e23c741dee83e3c7e6 .

BUS TOUR - GINGRICH WILL VISIT 44 CITIES AHEAD OF THE CAUCUSES:"Without the financial means to respond, Gingrich announced [Monday] he will embark on a 44-city Iowa tour ahead of the caucuses and will launch a series of daily tele-town halls on which he will respond to negative attacks," Reid Epstein reports from the trail.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe98be093bd8fbb5c14b22ed41cca7cbf2a6fba76dadc00f9ae
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe98be093bd8fbb5c14b22ed41cca7cbf2a6fba76dadc00f9ae

20-PAGE PLAN - GINGRICH RELEASES RELIGIOUS FREEDOM AGENDA:Gingrich's campaign gave the Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody a 20-page document that outlines their plan "to create through Executive Order a Presidential Commission on Religious Freedom in the United States."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c060e6465b6ccb26182208c5a870b6df134d2e0ed631274a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c060e6465b6ccb26182208c5a870b6df134d2e0ed631274a

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO TODAY:Romney is on Morning Joe and doing a fundraiser in NYC before heading to New Hampshire for a town hall/policy speech. Your Score correspondent will be with Gingrich as he stops at a grocery store in Mount Pleasant, hosts a business roundtable in Ottumwa, meets supporters at a coffee house in Oskaloosa and wraps up the day at a restaurant in Knoxville. Perry campaigns with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal in Maquoketa, DeWitt, Clinton and Davenport. Santorum stops in Pella, Mt. Pleasant, Davenport and Bettendorf. Bachmann's bus tour, meanwhile, goes to Independence, Fayette, Postville, Strawberry Point, Manchester, Dubuque and Maquoketa. Still in New
Hampshire, Paul stops in Manchester, Plaistow and Exeter - with an evening town hall at the last stop. Huntsman hosts town halls in Nashua and Stratham, as he wraps up his Granite State swing. Calendar:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe94655d506394e7ca8feb01c6b8097037cf37141b9e51fe5c1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe94655d506394e7ca8feb01c6b8097037cf37141b9e51fe5c1

BRACKETING ROMNEY - DNC WEB VIDEO QUESTIONS CONCERN FOR MIDDLE CLASS:The Democratic National Committee is releasing a new web video this morning called 'Romney on his Tax Plan for the Middle Class: It's Not Zero" to question the former governor's concern for the non-affluent. It is part of a broader effort to hit Romney for opposing to the auto bailout, vetoing money to help manufacturers and supporting the Paul Ryan budget plan. 85-seconds:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c7859c120376ece170b28cc6ac6415b915b23b8bceab402d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c7859c120376ece170b28cc6ac6415b915b23b8bceab402d .

UNCONSTITUTIONAL - ROMNEY HITS GINGRICH FOR WAR ON JUDGES:"His comments about the justices and the Congress, sending the Capitol police to bring in judges - that's not exactly a practical idea or a constitutional idea," Romney told Fox's Bill O'Reilly, per the Boston Globe. "Let me tell you, there are a lot of decisions by judges I vehemently disagree with. But I also agree with the Constitution. The solution to judges out of control is not to tear up the Constitution and say that the Congress of the United States becomes the now ultimate power in this country."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c7e44a7377094f45108c9d91e0dbbd1f9be6e54b3e032f29
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=717a94c5ccbeffe9c7e44a7377094f45108c9d91e0dbbd1f9be6e54b3e032f29

TOP 10 - ROMNEY ON LETTERMAN:10: Isn't it time for a president who looks like a 1970s game show host? 9: What's up gangstas? It's the M-i-double-tizzle. 8: I have no proof, but I have a feeling Canada is planning something. 7: Actually I'm only here to meet Tom Cruise. 6: Live from New York, It's Saturday Night!!! 5: My new cologne is not available at Macy's. It's Mitts-tified. 4: I just used all my campaign money to buy a zoo with Matt Damon. 3: I can do a lot but even I can't fix the Indianapolis Cults. 2: Newt Gingrich, really? 1: It's a hairpiece. The list is via CNN:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d945f30bd26cac955b47e0f52b913f2994ff24c62e3742fa1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d945f30bd26cac955b47e0f52b913f2994ff24c62e3742fa1 . CBS posted only a short video clip that does not include all 10:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d661a6c2a995a44783799ad41e88b11e2a4887aea5d08ffc6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d661a6c2a995a44783799ad41e88b11e2a4887aea5d08ffc6 .

PAUL SCRUTINY - GINGRICH ATTACKS ON IRAN:Without naming him but leaving no doubt who he was talking about, Gingrich attacked Paul's position on Iran yesterday during an Iowa campaign stop. "I cannot understand a mindset of somebody who says, 'Oh, they wouldn't do that with a nuclear weapon.' It strikes me that if they willing to blow up a few of us, they would be thrilled to blow up a lot of us. And that's where I disagree," he said. "I believe in defending America."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043dea476ae63f5bed8dee957eacaea9cf39c73cd631d24ff2ac
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043dea476ae63f5bed8dee957eacaea9cf39c73cd631d24ff2ac

NYT LOOKS AT NEWSLETTERS PAUL DISAVOWED:Signaling the scrutiny that's intensifying with his strength in the polls, the New York Times follows up on this weekend's Weekly Standard piece about the Ron Paul's old political newsletters and notes that he is "receiving new focus for decades-old unbylined columns in his political newsletters that included racist, anti-gay and anti-Israel passages that he has since disavowed."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d28941c8b7ea0c28db6b5cd846f6fbe8544a6948e183f9cce
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d28941c8b7ea0c28db6b5cd846f6fbe8544a6948e183f9cce

HUNTSMAN - "THE CONSISTENT CONSERVATIVE WHO CAN WIN":That's the tagline of a new ad that Our Destiny PAC put out yesterday that highlights praise from conservatives:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043deda74fc0371f6aa55bb08793dab185bc7c5a8a458f6ab807
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043deda74fc0371f6aa55bb08793dab185bc7c5a8a458f6ab807 .

SPOILER ALERT - AMERICANS ELECT GETS ON CALIFORNIA BALLOT:"Americans Elect -- a nonprofit organization aiming to create an alternative, independent presidential ticket -- announced (yesterday) it has qualified for ballot access in California, marking a significant milestone in its quest to be a factor in the 2012 race," the LA Times reports. "California is the 12th state in which the group has earned a spot on the ballot, and it was the heaviest lift thus far for the nascent group. The effort to get on the state's ballot started last March and employed more than 1,500 people to collect more than 1.6 million signatures."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043de29d94cf8e4fc857650f63dd87b75c8783df27bba74c1485
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043de29d94cf8e4fc857650f63dd87b75c8783df27bba74c1485

NOVEMBER FUNDRAISING - DCCC OUTRAISES NRCC BY $1 MILLION:Another remarkably impressive month for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as they will report today that they took in $4.1 million last month - compared to $3.1 million for the National Republican Congressional Committee - despite being in the minority. For the year, the DCCC has outraised the NRCC $56.2 million to $51.8 million. The NRCC still has more cash on hand: $14.5 million to $10.24 million. The DCCC started the year with $19 million in debt, but they will have the last few hundred thousand dollars paid back by the end of the year. The NRCC finished last month debt free.

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO:"In the afternoon, the President and the Vice President will participate in a ceremony at Joint Base Andrews marking the return of the United States Forces-Iraq Colors and the end of the war in Iraq. The President's arrival and departure from South Lawn are open press and the ceremony is pooled press."

TEXAS SENATE - CRAIG JAMES TO RUN; DEMS GET A SANCHEZ REPLACEMENT:ESPN analyst Craig James filed to run in the Texas Republican Senate primary yesterday. He'll face Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz. "James will take a leave from ESPN for his first jump into electoral politics," the Dallas affiliate WFAA, which interviewed him yesterday, reports. "He'll emphasize his working class upbringing by a single mother, and business experience in broadcasting, ranching and real estate."Meanwhile,"former (state) House Public Education Chairman Paul Sadler filed his candidacy for the U.S. Senate Monday after retired General Ricardo
Sanchez reversed himself and dropped out of the running for the Democratic nomination last week.Austin American-Statesman on Sadler:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d425f893e069fc57e922594b53932164fff07238e5f648b4d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d425f893e069fc57e922594b53932164fff07238e5f648b4d .Jamesinterview:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d726d3d475deb85b1e140b74962609675f32c9999b3f8a1fa
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d726d3d475deb85b1e140b74962609675f32c9999b3f8a1fa .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"It's not too late for folks to jump in. Who knows what will happen in the future?" - Sarah Palin on Fox Business last night when asked if she might reconsider her decision not to run
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d53169aed9a216c38f94920e7793ef5b6ca920a853e9dd96c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=03781c1940d2043d53169aed9a216c38f94920e7793ef5b6ca920a853e9dd96c

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