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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

Good morning from DES MOINES, where just one week remains until the caucuses.

$10 MILLION - That's how much has been spent on TV and radio advertising in Iowa this month alone.The Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs finds that Perry has spent the most here: $2.86 million. The pro-Romney Restore our Future Super PAC is close behind at $2.85 million. Paul's campaign is at $1.37 million, and Romney's is at $1.11 million. The others are in the six-figure range. Story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2fbd5efe6ca6e2ff94b882f0ea1bc9655f058e58c3a7624e0a0bee0287710573
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2fbd5efe6ca6e2ff94b882f0ea1bc9655f058e58c3a7624e0a0bee0287710573 . She aggregated all the ads on one page:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1085a8cbee9f4ba960105f1cd5864127ed22a24e2e2c6848e055e21e133cf4f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1085a8cbee9f4ba960105f1cd5864127ed22a24e2e2c6848e055e21e133cf4f9 .

SNEAK PEEK - ANOTHER N.H. WOMAN SENATOR TO BACK ROMNEY:Sharon Carson, New Hampshire's Senate Majority Whip, will endorse Mitt Romney at his event in her hometown of Londonderry this morning. Romney now has the support of 11 out of 19 Republican members of the State Senate and the backing of every member of GOP leadership in the upper chamber. Carson, a retired Sergeant First Class from the U.S. Army Reserve, is the highest ranking female Republican elected official in New Hampshire behind Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Ayotte will join Romney at both his Granite State events today before he flies to Iowa. Sources say Romney is impressed by Ayotte's hard work and dedication, and the two have apparently
struck up a friendship while traveling together on the trail. We're told the freshman senator has become a key Romney ally and put herself in a strong position in the event that the former Massachusetts governor becomes the nominee.

NEWT'S BUS - "REBUILDING THE AMERICA WE LOVE":That's the message on the side of the red, white and blue coach that will take Gingrich on his final push across Iowa. Here's a bus tour schedule through Thursday:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1700fac47b515f66a1f9d1ff5cb3a11d8710921db5804160b8cb56632a829dcb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1700fac47b515f66a1f9d1ff5cb3a11d8710921db5804160b8cb56632a829dcb . The campaign sent us this picture:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0a291e46a94b0a08ef4da48396ba8913bbce0f9d5e7c2361231ea9eba30cbcba
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0a291e46a94b0a08ef4da48396ba8913bbce0f9d5e7c2361231ea9eba30cbcba .

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:Romney has that morning breakfast in Londonberry to pick up Carson's endorsement and a midday speech at a chowder shop in Portsmouth. Then he flies out to Iowa for a 5 p.m. CT speech at the Black Hawk Hotel in Davenport. Gingrich's first bus tour stop does not start until 1 p.m. CT today - at the Dubuque Golf and Country Club. After he'll stop at the National Farm Toy Museum in Dyersville and wrap up at Mabes Pizza in Decorah. Perry hops back on the bus tour after his Austin hiatus, with stops in the west: Council Bluffs, Clarinda, Creston and Osceola. Santorum has a town hall in Mason City, tours a bakery in Cedar Falls and speaks at an arts center
in Waterloo. Trying to get to the last of the 99 counties, Bachmann visits Council Bluffs, Mondamin, Onawa, Glenwood, Sidney, Shenandoah, Red Oak, Atlantic and Hamlin.

Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum and Perry are confirmed to participate in a 90-minute "Presidential Pro-Life Forum" tonight. From the guidance, it's "a national tele-town hall and radio simulcast presented by Personhood USA in partnership with other national pro-life organizations" from 8-9:30 Central Time. It will play live on Steve Deace's radio show. Details:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b200930ceedb70c870735bc5d8a96479954db6c89099c4e6da202d147118a74d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b200930ceedb70c870735bc5d8a96479954db6c89099c4e6da202d147118a74d .

** As CNN gets filings from Gingrich's first divorce, Ron Paul's campaign calls an ex-aide disgruntled and Michael Barone minimizes the importance of these here caucuses, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

STATE OF THE RACE -

DAN BALZ and PHIL RUCKER in today's WASHINGTON POST: "The race in Iowa is as muddled as any in recent times as six candidates set off on a sprint to win a contest that leading strategists here say is up for grabs."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3f7158217f489ec046cd6a2c5c47f207b09aa5b851f87da572eaa2c5b242ae2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f3f7158217f489ec046cd6a2c5c47f207b09aa5b851f87da572eaa2c5b242ae2

JEFF ZELENY in today's NEW YORK TIMES:"While the future of Mr. Romney's candidacy does not depend on an Iowa victory, his advisers believe that his prospects are better than they once expected. The factors include arguments that he would be his party's strongest candidate against President Obama, divisions among social conservatives about which candidate to support and the challenges facing [Gingrich] and his still bare-bones campaign organization, highlighted by his failure last week to qualify for the Virginia primary ballot."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=166a47e7e10ea5e883b80a4e13de1e0684a10e5b25fbaea4adc320b8dbdfadc3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=166a47e7e10ea5e883b80a4e13de1e0684a10e5b25fbaea4adc320b8dbdfadc3

JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEX BURNS look at THE FIGHT FOR THIRD PLACE:"As one campaign adviser put it, the most consequential question hanging over Iowa may have less to do with the apparent leaders, Romney and Paul, then with the undercard. To the point: Who will emerge from the Gingrich-Perry-Michele Bachmann-Rick Santorum mini-caucus? 'The winner of that group can have a rationale for continuing,' said the campaign official."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e14030d66f95c9f539606d46476985cc9e7e532fb199c82dd34971c4e268bb97
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e14030d66f95c9f539606d46476985cc9e7e532fb199c82dd34971c4e268bb97

PERRY'S NEW AD - TARS FOUR OPPONENTS FOR CONGRESSIONAL SERVICE:Perry's latest 30-second spot started running on Iowa broadcast and cable yesterday. It features photos of Bachmann, Paul, Gingrich and Santorum. "Among them, they've spent 63 years in Congress, leaving us with debt, earmarks, and bailouts," the narrator says. Perry then promotes his idea of a part-time Congress. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=622a8ccb61ad1e30e093125b5f4ebe756e2e8d03384fa68a86683f1a2973bbc3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=622a8ccb61ad1e30e093125b5f4ebe756e2e8d03384fa68a86683f1a2973bbc3 .

NEWT ATTACKS - SPOKESMAN BLASTS "OPPO" IN RESPONSE TO ROMNEY AD:"Gingrich's campaign, urgently in need of recapturing their momentum from earlier this month, is putting out a statement mocking a new Romney ad, in which the former Massachusetts governor portrays himself as a 'conservative businessman,'" per JMart. "'Can we trust a Massachusetts Moderate to enact a conservative agenda?' says Gingrich communications director Joe DeSantis. 'Our campaign might have plenty of things to say about that, but the best response certainly comes from Mitt Romney himself: 'I think people recognize that I am not a partisan Republican. That I'm someone who is moderate, and that my views are
progressive.'' That quote comes from 2002 when Romney was running for governor of the Bay State and doing everything he could to downplay his party label and appeal to independent voters. Included with DeSantis's statement are a slew of past Romney quotes in which he similarly says things that are unhelpful in the context of a GOP presidential primary."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=019394abb9fcefc8a0c91456f5341deeed7b8103a69d0fb04ed912ffdff17004
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=019394abb9fcefc8a0c91456f5341deeed7b8103a69d0fb04ed912ffdff17004

NEWT SCRUTINY -

WSJ: GINGRICH GROUP APPLAUDED ROMNEYCARE - OLD NEWSLETTERS GET ANOTHER CANDIDATE IN TROUBLE:'The health bill that Governor Romney signed into law this month has tremendous potential to effect major changes in the American health system,' said an April 2006 newsletter published by Gingrich's former consulting company, the Center for Health Transformation. More from Brody Mullins and Janet Adamy: "The two-page 'Newt Notes' analysis, found online by The Wall Street Journal even though it no longer appears on the center's website, continued: 'We agree entirely with Governor Romney and Massachusetts legislators that our goal should be 100% insurance coverage for all Americans.' ... At
the same time, the essay cautioned that some piece of the Massachusetts plan may not work. It warned that the state has an 'exhaustive' list of health-coverage requirements that prohibit insurers from offering basic plans with high deductibles. It predicted that state residents earning little more than $30,000 a year-- the threshold for an individual to qualify for subsidized coverage-- would be 'in jeopardy of being priced out of the system.' Instead, the newsletter said, 'we propose that a more realistic approach might be to limit the mandate to those individuals earning upward of $54,000 per year.'"

THE CAMPAIGN'S RESPONSE: "R.C. Hammond, a spokesman for Mr. Gingrich, said the April 2006 essay shouldn't be read as an endorsement of Mr. Romney's health plan," per the Journal. "'Being critical. . .isn't endorsing it,' he said. Mr. Hammond said the Newt Notes essay wasn't written by Mr. Gingrich himself."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=80ea68178e12097cbb91cc027b1d8dadd3ef3525796a28cb95ae7778d5387ff7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=80ea68178e12097cbb91cc027b1d8dadd3ef3525796a28cb95ae7778d5387ff7

CNN: DOCUMENTS CAST DOUBT ON GINGRICH'S ACCOUNT OF FIRST DIVORCE:"Newt Gingrich claims that it was his first wife, not Gingrich himself, who wanted their divorce in 1980, but court documents obtained by CNN appear to show otherwise...The documents, and interviews with people close to the couple at the time, contradict the Gingrich claim about who wanted the divorce.Newt Gingrich filed a divorce complaint on July 14, 1980, in Carroll County, saying that 'the marriage of the parties is irretriebably (sic) broken.' Jackie Battley Gingrich, the congressman's wife and the mother of Jackie Gingrich Cushman, responded by asking the judge to reject her husband's filing." Read the story and
look at the scanned divorce papers here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36a8ad3ec51b72b575841815add2faa8d5367930f5748070b2f29342ee446f77
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36a8ad3ec51b72b575841815add2faa8d5367930f5748070b2f29342ee446f77 .

PAUL SCRUTINY -

EX-AIDE CALLS PAUL'S FOREIGN POLICY "SHEER LUNACY":Former Paul staffer Eric Dondero's 2,100-word piece on Rightwingnews.com got pretty widely circulated yesterday. Jill Lawrence sums up the most controversial claims about Paul's positions, "from Israel (it shouldn't exist) to Hitler (we shouldn't have fought him) to 9/11 (U.S. authorities may have known about the attacks) to Afghanistan (we shouldn't have invaded). He calls Paul's foreign policy 'sheer lunacy.'... Paul campaign manager Jesse Benton, in a statement circulated to the media, called Dondero 'a disgruntled former staffer who was fired for performance issues. He has zero credibility and should not be taken seriously.'" National
Journal story on the highlights:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1bf846680d98814f95c11564960804cd4df391090e5ee13ed9e788cff801d08
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1bf846680d98814f95c11564960804cd4df391090e5ee13ed9e788cff801d08 . A Weekly Standard blog post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24b0b9d88b7afd729ce7f04de7e3f2df458de07df60cbd29bba65795cab4b044
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=24b0b9d88b7afd729ce7f04de7e3f2df458de07df60cbd29bba65795cab4b044 . The essay itself:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f4f1e9425110900f5283b592b078bb148580ba166acf122a643a61225f282ae7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f4f1e9425110900f5283b592b078bb148580ba166acf122a643a61225f282ae7 .

HE'S ONLY PASSED ONE BILL INTO LAW:"The passage of H.R. 2121, in fall 2009, unfolded without drama. It allowed for the sale of a customhouse in Galveston, Tex. The House debate took two minutes, and the vote took eight seconds. The ayes had it. But something historic was happening. On his 482nd try, Rep. Ron Paul had authored a bill that would become law...Of the 620 measures that Paul has sponsored, just four have made it to a vote on the House floor. Only that one has been signed into law." More from Dave Fahrenthold in The Washington Post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7e292d00a7411de5fb42092a12bcfcf7074a3531d714eb2bd04211082127fbeb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7e292d00a7411de5fb42092a12bcfcf7074a3531d714eb2bd04211082127fbeb .

PHEASANT HUNTING - SANTORUM CAN'T BAG KING ENDORSEMENT:"Rick Santorum blasted four game birds out of the gray December sky [in western Iowa] Monday, but he missed bagging what could have been a much bigger prize - an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Steve King," William Petroski writes in the Register. "Santorum...spent the afternoon at Doc's Hunting Club with King, one of Iowa's most prominent conservative politicians. However, the congressman said afterward he still hasn't decided whether he will endorse any Republican presidential candidate before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8a49464cd4623af79221509fc3b866c69d3b87c515383b7b91f56512708bab4a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8a49464cd4623af79221509fc3b866c69d3b87c515383b7b91f56512708bab4a

FLORIDA - ROMNEY PUSHED FOR ABSENTEE SUPPORT IN TELETOWNHALL LAST NIGHT:"Romney hosted a Florida tele-town hall meeting that didn't yield a whole lot of news but spoke volumes about the state of the Republican presidential race in Florida," The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo writes in a play-by-play blog post. "Romney began and ended the 30 minute call with a pitch for absentee ballots. His campaign said it called 'thousands' of supporters and urged them to dial 1 if they supported Romney...The questions tonight from the Romney supporters also reflected the Republican electorate. They're concerned about illegal immigration, Israel and the size of government. And though they're conservative, a
few callers sounded a little worried that their government programs - Medicare and Social Security - are on the chopping block. Romney assured them it wouldn't happen."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2e760061efcc81b805e93e6ff4390f9ab97f9cae801f1bf3823dcbe357e84df6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=2e760061efcc81b805e93e6ff4390f9ab97f9cae801f1bf3823dcbe357e84df6

A SPLASH OF COLD WATER - MICHAEL BARONE DOWNPLAYS IOWA'S IMPORTANCE:Nothing we haven't heard before, but an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal by Almanac of American Politics coauthor Michael Barone will get wide circulation today. "In the five presidential nominating cycles with active Iowa Republican caucus competition, the Hawkeye State has voted for the eventual Republican nominee only twice-in 1996 for Bob Dole, in 2000 for George W. Bush-and only once was the Iowa winner elected president," Barone points out. "Iowa Republican insiders are predicting that turnout will not exceed and may not even reach the 119,000 of 2008, when Republicans were dispirited about their party's
chances...If those turnout predictions prove true, the Iowa Republican caucus-going electorate will continue to be unrepresentative of the 645,000 registered Republicans or even of the 227,000 who voted in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary (in which [Terry] Branstad, a previous four-term governor, defeated Christian conservative Bob Vander Plaats)."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=cb9bf143b1439c4b1c6883526f9e42682b1c3fe2d0b1ab5804d85e5911f6c16b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=cb9bf143b1439c4b1c6883526f9e42682b1c3fe2d0b1ab5804d85e5911f6c16b

For the unacquainted, Real Clear Politics' Scott Conroy has a PRIMER on how the caucus process works:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=59407aa89725438c4d2814268ba384a819c8c158dadea87110d98aea56317169
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=59407aa89725438c4d2814268ba384a819c8c158dadea87110d98aea56317169 .

ROMNEY SURROGATES - WHO WILL CAMPAIGN FOR HIM IN IOWA?Chris Christie, John Thune, Norm Coleman, Jim Talent, Aaron Schock, Jason Chaffetz and Michael Leavitt.Phil Rucker:"Three of Romney's five adult sons - Matt, Josh and Craig - are also expected to hit the campaign trail this week."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6fbb9be5ddae30c9554bf4431aac7cee864069b0a600a995dbf8bf79191005ab
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6fbb9be5ddae30c9554bf4431aac7cee864069b0a600a995dbf8bf79191005ab

THE REELECT - OBAMA APPROVAL SURGES:"According to the latest Gallup tracking poll, more Americans approve of the job that President Obama is doing than disapprove for the first time since this summer," per Byron Tau. "The latest Gallup survey shows that 47 percent of Americans now say they approve of the way that President Obama is handling his job. This is a 5 percent improvement since the Dec. 16-18 Gallup survey and marks the first time the president's numbers have been in positive territory since July. The number of Americans who say they disapprove of Obama's job performance has fallen to 45 percent, down 5 points from Dec. 16-18."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=370f6f448ec2b1154ea3f5530c6f2b88d1d836d5b833e03028cc0d4e605bd7df
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=370f6f448ec2b1154ea3f5530c6f2b88d1d836d5b833e03028cc0d4e605bd7df

DEM ON DEM VIOLENCE - ROTHMAN WILL PRIMARY PASCRELL:Rep. Steve Rothman will move back to Englewood, where he once served as mayor, to challenge Rep. Bill Pascrell in the newly drawn 9th district. Key numbers from The Record story about the announcement, which comes today: 'Rothman currently represents about 54 percent of the people who live in the new 9th District' and '61 percent of the 114,000 registered Democrats in the new district are among his constituents in the existing 9th District.' Both are members of the Class of 1996. Rothman was one of Barack Obama's earliest congressional endorsers, while Pascrell joined the majority of New Jersey's powerbrokers behind Hillary
Clinton. Rothman was also key in keeping the powerful Bergen County Democratic Party Chair from bolting for Rob Andrews in the 2008 primary against Frank Lautenberg.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ffedff83389ccc0174d772b069803a4679be17ac9c2ced9ae8e3cd10d3f7bf93
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ffedff83389ccc0174d772b069803a4679be17ac9c2ced9ae8e3cd10d3f7bf93

WHO LOST/WON THE DAY?No one had a particularly good or bad day at the presidential level on Monday, but this New Jersey fight will be a marquee primary matchup of the 2012 cycle. The real winner is Rep. Scott Garrett, who would have faced Rothman if he had chosen to stay in the district he'd been drawn into. By extension, the loser seems to be the DCCC for being unable to prevent this internecine warfare.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"The dynamics couldn't be better for us. I don't see any scenario where we're not the nominee." - A senior Romney strategist in an interview with New York Magazine's John Heilemann
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9324f47f673f78135c89609caa334bb353961982211aa6587dc885ec02ae5e17
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9324f47f673f78135c89609caa334bb353961982211aa6587dc885ec02ae5e17

Go to POLITICO Morning Score Now >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1be71c200a73ee8796126c910cfcbb96c04e6a6c629e7a50e6e565875bdcfac6

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