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Re: Iowa Predictions?
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FROM:
S
smacklera@gmail.com
DATE:
2011-12-29 11:59:19
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<CAPudD-anUcMb4yhQmithg++A4VaWH+DREp599eerea2eNz_rug@mail.gmail.com>
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B
<261penn@gmail.com>
CC:
E
Eric Schwerin
<eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com>
H
Hunter Biden
<hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>
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Personal weirdness aside, I continue to think (hope?) that Romney is in for a rude awakening once the real campaign starts. He's been playing in the minor leagues: in debates, organization in the field, and media attention. When the spotlight is on him and only him, I think we'll see more cracks. Obama/Biden are in a different class than the also-rans in the GOP field. On Wed, Dec 28, 2011 at 5:55 PM, B <261penn@gmail.com> wrote: > Since Eric just accused me of not being fun (which is true) and with the > benefit of the recent CNN poll, my prediction is that Santorum will be the > story out of Iowa with a strong third-place performance over newt. Close > between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney for first place. > > > > On Dec 28, 2011, at 2:10 PM, Eric Schwerin <eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com> > wrote: > > I agree that these comments are invariably taken out of context and > probably unfair to him, but I think he can work all he wants on the retail > side and I still think he may have trouble connecting at the end of the > day. I also think for the general it will be a hard narrative for him to > get rid of even if he were to get better at it - like it or not the press > is going to portray him as out of touch, rich and someone with a no moral > center. This article plays into that whether it is true or not. > > > Eric D. Schwerin**** > Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC**** > ****1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW******** > ****Suite** 705****** > ****Washington**, **DC** **20007******** > (202) 333-1880**** > eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com**** > *P** **Consider the environment before printing this email.* > > On Dec 28, 2011, at 2:01 PM, Hunter Biden wrote: > > That article actually makes me nervous about Romney-- the press loves > making fun of candidates as they campaign making what seem to be silly > comments when taken out of the context of shaking hands with hundreds of > people in a single day. What it says to me is that Romney is actually > working at the retail end of campaigning. Before I read the article i > would have said Paul wins but now I think Romney pulls an upset victory in > Iowa and goes on to take NH and the majority of super Tuesday delegates. > > RHB > 202.333.1880 > > On Dec 28, 2011, at 11:10 AM, Eric Schwerin <eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com> > wrote: > > I won't predict order but will say it is pretty much a three-way tie > between Romney, Santorum and Paul (with Paul likely winning). And I saw > this article - awesome! I am not sure if I love the "French Canadian?" or > "Daughter? No, wife" line better. > > > > Eric D. Schwerin**** > Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC**** > ****1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW******** > ****Suite** 705****** > ****Washington**, **DC** **20007******** > (202) 333-1880**** > eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com**** > *P** **Consider the environment before printing this email.* > > On Dec 28, 2011, at 12:04 PM, Alexander Snyder-Mackler wrote: > > I think Romney and Paul basically tie, Romney costs in NH, and then Rs > have to decide if they are any less uncomfortable with Ron Paul than they > are with Romney. Which means I think Romney has it wrapped up by Super > Tuesday. If you want to feel good about that, read this story: > > December 27, 2011 > The Retooled, Loose Romney, Guessing Voters’ Age and Ethnicity By ASHLEY > PARKER<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/ashley_parker/index.html?inline=nyt-per>and MICHAEL > BARBARO<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/michael_barbaro/index.html?inline=nyt-per> > > DAVENPORT, Iowa — When Mitt Romney<http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/candidates/mitt-romney?inline=nyt-per>introduces himself to voters, he has a peculiar habit of guessing their age > or nationality, often incorrectly. (A regular query: “Are you French > Canadian?”) > > When making small talk with locals, he peppers the conversation with > curious details. (“We stayed in the Courtyard hotel last night,” he told a > woman at a diner. “It’s a LEED-certified hotel.”) > > And when he encounters a question he particularly dislikes, he smiles > politely and behaves as if it never happened. (“Will you put Ron Paul in > your cabinet?” a man asked. The candidate turned away, inquiry left > unanswered.) > > Mr. Romney’s bid for president this year is a carefully crafted do-over, a > chance to revise and retool a campaign that quickly fizzled out four years > ago. He has lost the tie, overhauled his stump speech and hired far fewer > campaign consultants. > > But perhaps the trickiest part of this reinvention is changing who Mr. > Romney is when he steps out from behind the lectern and wades into a > roomful of voters: a cautious chief executive who is uneasy with > off-the-cuff remarks, unnatural at chitchat and spare with his emotions. > > At coffee shops and veterans’ halls, on sidewalks and factory tours, the > reworked version, it turns out, is not all that different from the > original. > > A close-up study of Mr. Romney’s casual interactions with voters captures > a candidate who can be efficient, funny and self-deprecating, yet often > strains to connect in a personal way. > > Even those who praise his style after meeting him sometimes do so in ways > that feel backhanded: “I don’t mind stiff and formal,” said Holly Sirois, > who spoke to Mr. Romney a few days ago at a pizza shop in Newport, N.H. “I > don’t want the guy sitting in the backyard drinking beers with his buddies. > I want my president to act presidential.” > > Mr. Romney has plenty of moments when he wins positive reactions and some > when he seems to make a genuine link, undercutting his caricature as > robotic. And he is hardly giving up on mastering the art of the soft sell: > he personally insisted on spending more hours talking to voters this > election and fewer sequestered in his Boston headquarters. The calculation > may prove crucial in a year when a procession of rivals — Rick Perry, Ron > Paul and Newt Gingrich — has roused the Republican base with colorful > personalities and dynamic speaking styles. > > The informal, humanizing interactions are so essential to the campaign’s > image that Mr. Romney has scheduled back-to-back bus tours in New Hampshire > and Iowa, the latest of which began here in Davenport on Tuesday, crammed > with events like Coffee with Mitt, Pizza with Mitt and Spaghetti with Mitt. > > “No one is an expert at it when they first do it,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, a > senior adviser to Mr. Romney, who has watched him ring hundreds of > doorbells over the years. “There has been an improvement over time, just as > you would expect.” > > Here is a guide to Mr. Romney’s habits and quirks on the campaign trail: > > *Guesswork* > > For a candidate who is exceedingly risk-averse, Mr. Romney has developed > an unlikely penchant for trying to puzzle out everything from voters’ > personal relationships to their ancestral homelands. > > “Sisters?” he asked. (Nope, stepmother and stepdaughter.) “Your husband?” > he wondered. (No, just a friend from the neighborhood.) “Mother and > daughter?” he guessed. (Cousins, actually.) > > The results can be awkward. “Daughter?” he asked a woman sitting with a > man and two younger girls at the diner in Tilton, N.H., on Friday morning. > Her face turned a shade of red. “Wife.” > > Oh, Mr. Romney said. “It was a compliment, I guess,” said the woman, > Janelle Batchelder, 31. “At the same time, it was possibly an insult.” > > Countries of origin are another Romney favorite. When a man in Bethlehem, > N.H., stood and introduced himself as Randall Loiacono, Mr. Romney asked, > “Now, is that a Northern European name?” > > “Sicilian,” Mr. Loiacono said, before standing and spelling his name at > Mr. Romney’s request. > > Mr. Romney relishes meeting young voters and rarely misses an opportunity > to guess their age. > > “What are you, about 9, 10?” Mr. Romney asked a young boy, shaking his > gloved hand in a parking lot in Lancaster, N.H. “Seven,” the boy’s mom > said. > > When another boy corrected Mr. Romney a few campaign stops later (he was > 12, not 14), his aides burst into laughter at the familiar mistake. Mr. > Fehrnstrom called his boss’s frequent questions “an icebreaker.” > > “It’s better than going around and trying to guess people’s weight,” Mr. > Fehrnstrom said. “It’s safe.” > > *Congratulations* > > Mr. Romney likes to congratulate people. For what, exactly, is not always > clear. > > “Congratulations,” he told a grandmother at an event on Thursday night, > presumably because she had a large brood. > > Over three consecutive days last week, he congratulated a girl who said > she was attending college, a woman who said she owned a small business and > a mother who said she was going back to school. “Congratulations!” he > exclaimed upon learning that a woman had three children. > > Every candidate has default greetings, of course, standard lines that can > be trotted out almost mindlessly, day after day, hour after hour, room > after room. > > “Good to see you,” Mr. Romney says. > > “Hey, buddy, how are you?” > > “Thanks for being here.” > > Sometimes, when a voter brandishes a camera, his greetings become more > elaborate: “Hi, there. You know how to make that work? Ha-ha.” > > Mr. Romney, never much of a hugger or backslapper, stands with his hands > straight down at his waist, tilting forward ever so slightly and turning > from side to side as he searches for the next hand to shake or poster to > sign. > > In Bedford, N.H., he turned to find a man who proudly told him, “You > already have my vote.” It was the kind of comment that might normally > elicit an expression of gratitude, or an inquiry into the voter’s > background. > > Mr. Romney replied, “Well, that’s good.” > > *Dodging the Question* > > Few candidates are as deft as Mr. Romney at genially brushing off > unwelcome queries and comments. > > In Bedford, N.H., a woman walked up to him after a speech and declared: “I > have a lot friends who say you are the robotic type. And I am like, no, you > need to stay that way because you are a leader.” > > Mr. Romney’s mouth arched into a somewhat pained smile as he rushed to > conclude the conversation. “Nice to see you guys,” he said as he walked > away. > > A few moments later, a voter named David Rivers asked Mr. Romney whether > there would be place for Mr. Paul, a Texas congressman, in a Romney White > House. Mr. Romney treated the question as a joke, letting out a laugh and > walking on by. > > “I was actually kind of serious,” Mr. Rivers said in an interview > afterward. > > Sometimes Mr. Romney will engage in a back-and-forth with tough > questioners; in Concord, N.H., a woman told him that she favored socialized > medicine. “I’ve got someone for you,” Mr. Romney said. “His name is Barack > Obama. He agrees with you. Ha-ha.” > > *Finding a Connection* > > Mr. Romney’s fascination with arcane, technical information can > occasionally leave voters scratching their heads. > > When he mentioned his hotel’s LEED designation — an imprimatur of energy > efficiency — to the woman in Keene, N.H., she acknowledged that she had no > idea what it meant. “Is it something to do with being green?” she asked > after he had moved on. > > But his inner wonk has at times endeared him to potential supporters, as > it did at a farm supply store in Lancaster, when Mr. Romney began > discussing the intricacies of cow milk with Jessica Hebert, an Obama voter > who was at the store. > > Mr. Romney delved deeply into the topic, with real curiosity and a barrage > of questions, after Ms. Hebert, who has shown dairy cows, explained that a > prize animal produced about 100 pounds of milk a day. He began a series of > rapid-fire calculations to determine how many gallons are in a pound: > “Eight-point-three pounds per gallon. So 8 into 100 is going to be about > 13, 14, gallons. Oh, 12 — there you go.” > > He beamed with satisfaction at solving the puzzle — and Ms. Hebert said > she liked what she had heard. > > “That is a lot of milk,” Mr. Romney said. > > > On Wed, Dec 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM, Beau <261penn@gmail.com> wrote: > >> I have no idea >> >> Confidentiality Notice: This electronic message and any attachment(s) >> are confidential and may be subject to the attorney/client privilege and/or >> work product immunity. This e-mail is only for the use of the intended >> recipient(s). If you have received this e-mail in error, please notify the >> sender immediately by replying to this e-mail, then delete this message and >> any attachment(s) from your system. Any unintended transmission expressly >> shall not waive the attorney/client privilege or any other privilege. >> >> On Dec 28, 2011, at 10:12 AM, Eric Schwerin <eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com> >> wrote: >> >> >> >> >> >> Eric D. Schwerin**** >> Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC**** >> ****1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW******** >> ****Suite** 705****** >> ****Washington**, **DC** **20007******** >> (202) 333-1880**** >> eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com**** >> *P** **Consider the environment before printing this email.* >> >> > > > -- > > Alexander Snyder-Mackler > (302) 598-8678 > > > -- Alexander Snyder-Mackler (302) 598-867
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