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By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

A new POLITICO/GWU Battleground Poll puts President Obama up three points (50-47) among likely voters nationally. That's within the margin of error, BUT there's not much good news for Mitt Romney, who has fallen underwater (46/49 fav/unfav). The president is at key thresholds: 50% approve of his job performance, 53% view him favorably and 60% think he'll win.

Obama now ties or has an edge over Romney on who is best to handle every major issue except the federal budget and spending. Most alarmingly for Boston, Romney has lost his edge on jobs. A month ago, he led Obama by 6 points. Now they're even. Among those who say creating jobs is their top priority, Obama's up 11 points. A slight majority disapproves of the way Obama's handling the economy, yet he narrowly leads Romney on who is better to manage it. Approval for Obama's tax policy has risen from 46 to 51 percent in the last month, and Obama has a 4-point edge on who will better handle the issue after the two tied in our last poll. Obama leads by 19 (57-38) on who stands up best for the
middle class - up 5 points from August. The president has expanded his advantage on Medicare from 4 to 9 points (52-43).

My story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d5f93eccbef32dfdcdb6b52b3c3e27d27784f1f40e965017
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d5f93eccbef32dfdcdb6b52b3c3e27d27784f1f40e965017 . Toplines:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd702eb939afc890818d293d2173b4b77e22f679745cc8eceb4a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd702eb939afc890818d293d2173b4b77e22f679745cc8eceb4a . Democratic pollster Celinda Lake's analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700974c16b597e7b27145b4ba36cd5f6e0df789346f9fe389f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700974c16b597e7b27145b4ba36cd5f6e0df789346f9fe389f . Republican pollster Ed Goeas's analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70732e989be22025538cb071b864df05641eff01834b07f444
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70732e989be22025538cb071b864df05641eff01834b07f444 .

SNIPING OVER CHINA-

ROMNEY AD - OBAMA HASN'T STOOP UP FOR U.S. INTERESTS: "China is stealing American ideas and technology, everything from computers to fighter jets," a narrator says. "Seven times Obama could have taken action. Seven times he said no. His policies cost us two million jobs. Obama had years to stand up to China. We can't afford four more." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705c6432e270b814a051c89313b683843c9aed384b51a76ecf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705c6432e270b814a051c89313b683843c9aed384b51a76ecf .

OBAMA MEMO - ROMNEY IS IN CHINA'S POCKET: "One of the many shocking revelations in Mitt Romney's 2011 tax return was that he invested more than $75,000 in shares of Cnooc Limited, the Chinese state-owned oil company. It wasn't until Romney decided that he was going to start talking tough on China in the context of his presidential campaign that he dumped the shares," campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt writes in a 5-page memo. "Romney harshly criticizes the Chinese for intellectual property theft. But his 2011 tax return revealed that he invested in a Chinese version of YouTube, which 'quickly became a haven for downloading illegal American content.' ... Romney holds a partnership interest in
Bain Capital funds that are invested in GOME, a Chinese electronics company that is being sued by Microsoft for piracy, as well as in Uniview Technologies, which supplies the Chinese government with video surveillance systems." Read:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd702511e14c2c3d6f7b214298e485a7621510b5d240d660173c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd702511e14c2c3d6f7b214298e485a7621510b5d240d660173c .

MASSACHUSETTS SNEAK PEEKS -

BROWN AD ATTACKS WARREN FOR CLAIMING INDIAN HERITAGE: After months of positive bio spots, Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will go on the air with an ad that highlights the firestorm over Democrat Elizabeth Warren identifying herself as a Native American to employers. It ends with a devastating clip from a TV interview. The reporter asks, "Is there anything else that's going to come out about you that we don't already know?" Warren, trying to be funny, responds, "You know, I don't think so. But who knows?" The Brown campaign notes that Warren went negative first, running two ads attacking his record, and that this Native American stuff matters. A campaign strategist flags a Suffolk Poll from
last week that showed the third word most associated with Warren is "liar":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70aafd07d26b7265ca8d9862db367892e3122b3f4e70fa58f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70aafd07d26b7265ca8d9862db367892e3122b3f4e70fa58f9 . Dave Catanese reported over the weekend that the race is entering a new, more negative phase:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700a7d064342149ade4c35d1b827745f73e27b098fe9548ce9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700a7d064342149ade4c35d1b827745f73e27b098fe9548ce9 . Watch the ad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ec8ce5619d4e42deef841eec2217e154a17eb50bc366eb08
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ec8ce5619d4e42deef841eec2217e154a17eb50bc366eb08 .

TRUMKA WILL WARN UNION MEMBERS AGAINST SEXISM: AFL-CIO internal polling conducted last week puts Warren up three (49-46) overall and four (49-45) among members of the union. In 2008, AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka gave a speech in Pennsylvania warning union members not to vote against Obama because of his race. Today, campaigning with Warren in Massachusetts, he will warn union members against opposing her because she's a woman or supporting Brown because he's cooler, more likable and personable.

Excerpt: "We have a problem because some voters-and let me be perfectly honest, I'm talking about voters who look just like me-have not stood up beside Elizabeth Warren to support her," he plans to say. "I've said before that there are dozens of good reasons to vote for Barack Obama and one bad reason not to-and that's because he's black. Now hear me about Elizabeth Warren. There may be dozens of reasons for us to vote for her, but it's crazy not to vote for her because she's a woman ... or because she's a college professor ... or for any other superficial reason." More excerpts:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705fd8b46f3743fc214ef0f89798c7cb303f3b0e90337b169c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705fd8b46f3743fc214ef0f89798c7cb303f3b0e90337b169c . A video from the Massachusetts Democratic Party ties Brown to national Republicans:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7046eca3401447aa3c89cc4e5970e15582544d33be770fe315
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7046eca3401447aa3c89cc4e5970e15582544d33be770fe315 .

As Joe Manchin's wife cuts his hair, Angus King mixes it up the NRSC and the Michael Grimm says his office was broken into, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE TRAIL TODAY-

OBAMA in NEW YORK: Leaves the White House at 1. Tapes his appearance on "The View" with FLOTUS at 4. 8:20 closed-press reception for visiting heads of state at the Waldorf Astoria. He's overnighting in NYC. Jay Carney briefs at 11:15.

ROMNEY in COLORADO: Rallies in Pueblo at 12 MT.

RYAN in OHIO: He kicks off the bus tour with a town hall in Lima at 3:10 ET.

BIDEN in DC: Lunch with the president before he leaves for NYC. No public events.

COUNTDOWN: 43 days.

THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: Romney looks to spend less time fundraising and more time campaigning. He didn't get the reset he wanted last week because of the 47% video, but the campaign thinks they have a great opportunity in the next few days to lay the ground work for next Wednesday's debate. With that in mind, here are five questions for the week ahead:

(1) How much flak will Obama get for going on "The View" but skipping bilateral meetings with foreign leaders during the UN General Assembly?

(2) Will Obama's description of the firestorm in the Middle East as a "bump in the road" generate backlash on the campaign trail?

(3) Is Paul Ryan going to get more aggressive in the wake of Scott Walker's call for him to play a more out-front role?

(4) What will Romney do to narrow his 19-point deficit on which candidate is better for the middle class?

(5) What impact will the increasing perception outside the Beltway that Obama is winning have on voter enthusiasm?

OCTOBER SURPRISES - HELP WITH A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT: Henry Kissinger announced that peace was "at hand" 12 days before the 1972 election. Jimmy Carter alumni believe he lost because of late developments in the Iranian hostage crisis. It came out the week before the 2000 election that Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in 1976. The Mark Foley scandal contributed to GOP losses in 2006. Four years ago, the markets collapsed. There are lots more examples of so-called October "surprises" that have shaken up every cycle. What could happen this time, besides an Israeli strike on Iran? What could move the needle, abroad or at home? Email your thinking to
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com . Tomorrow I'll round up a mix of the smartest, buzziest and most plausible responses. Background is fine.

THE COUNTER-NARRATIVE -WHY 2012 IS NOT 1980: The Romney campaign has taken to noting that Ronald Reagan trailed in some polls around this time but surged late and won. But the 32-year-old comparison just doesn't hold up well under scrutiny: the electoral map for Reagan was friendlier, the 1980 economy feebler, the incumbent more vulnerable, the crisis overseas worse and Reagan's campaign skills were simply better. I reached out to a bunch of folks in Reagan's world, some Carter campaign alumni, plus reporters and historians:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704874f251d488ae7e83930ccfc5608cce88dbe6fc016cc753
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704874f251d488ae7e83930ccfc5608cce88dbe6fc016cc753 .

MESSAGING-

OBAMA AD HITS 47%: They're only running it in Ohio, but the reelection campaign is putting money behind a spot built around the hidden-camera video. "Romney attacked 47% of Americans who pay no income tax-- including veterans, elderly, the disabled," a narrator says. "Doesn't the President have to worry about everyone? Mitt Romney paid just 14.1% in taxes last year. He keeps millions in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. He won't release his tax returns before 2010. Maybe instead of attacking others on taxes, Romney should come clean on his." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd707ebb812b7fb680c66f440d20e8b888723b882af7092d5308
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd707ebb812b7fb680c66f440d20e8b888723b882af7092d5308 .

ROMNEY VIDEO HITS OBAMA SLOGANEERING: A 90-second video seizes on Obama's Univision comment that "you can't change Washington from the inside." It features a bunch of recent college grads saying he hasn't lived up to the promise of hope and change. The top has audio of Obama giving commencement speeches in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. The campaign is holding 27 events in 11 states (Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin) focusing on "Obama's admission." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd708005bf969365657dd215d35268f684ed936a06c1904865bf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd708005bf969365657dd215d35268f684ed936a06c1904865bf .

GILLESPIE MEMO SAYS "SPECIFICS" COMING THIS WEEK: Romney Senior Adviser Ed Gillespie outlines the message for the week. "This election is a choice," he writes. "And the simple fact is, we can't afford four more years of Obama's failed policies. This is not what a real recovery looks like.A real recovery would result in 12 million new jobs, as the Romney Plan will.A real recovery would unleash more domestic energy, as the Romney Plan will.A real recovery would make it easier for small businesses to open and expand, as the Romney Plan will...Voters will get to know more not only about the specifics of the Romney Plan, but how it will benefit them."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700a9a8d3b99a2084c1b06a4eac00141cff3f30de819781516
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700a9a8d3b99a2084c1b06a4eac00141cff3f30de819781516

BOSTON HITS ON FOREIGN POLICY COMMENTS IN 60 MINUTES INTERVIEW: The Romney press shop attacked Obama for twice criticizing Israel, for calling the turmoil in the Middle East "bumps in the road," for saying his biggest disappointment is not changing the tone in DC after telling Univision last week that it was not getting comprehensive immigration reform done, etc. Read:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7066651b5db5f07bf9298869a4ca0415b64c71e1937b27cc53
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7066651b5db5f07bf9298869a4ca0415b64c71e1937b27cc53 .

RNC TOUTS GROUND GAME: "Overall, we have made more than 26 million voter contacts, thanks to the efforts of our 73,000 volunteers," Republican National Committee political director Rick Wiley says in a memo this morning. "This week, we expect to make our 30 millionth voter contact. By mid-September, we had already surpassed the 2008 operation in total volunteer voter contacts. We've knocked on nearly 2 million more doors than in all of 2008, and we've made six times more phone calls than at this point four years ago." The 3-page memo includes a state-by-state breakdown of the numbers:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd706bcab391690800f2c53bca132ede1666ad92fa1a4b0404ab
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd706bcab391690800f2c53bca132ede1666ad92fa1a4b0404ab .

DNC COUNTERPROGRAMMING: The Democratic National Committee is chasing a "Romney: Writing off the middle class" bus around Ohio. It stops in Lima, Dayton and Cincinnati today. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, the star attraction, will attack Romney for "writing off half the country."

LABOR WILL BIRD-DOG ROMNEY IN OHIO: Worker's Voice, the AFL-CIO super PAC, sent a mailer to 100,000 households last week laying out "Romney record of vulture capitalism." They are sending a second piece this week to the same households reinforcing the theme that Romney's business practices made him rich but didn't help working families. The union says it does a lot more mail than others because their testing shows their people spend a lot more time reading it. They also recall more information. Since it's coming from the union, they see it more as a newsletter and not junk. Each person getting mail also get a robocall chasing it before and after it drops. Mailer 1:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704a592b5ac10b39ffea32fe54e8c9a2c5ec989e70faeee081
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704a592b5ac10b39ffea32fe54e8c9a2c5ec989e70faeee081 . Mailer 2:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70eaa6b1a999a2b18bbbd4c2e697abc0aa85d1e3fcd4e1141e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70eaa6b1a999a2b18bbbd4c2e697abc0aa85d1e3fcd4e1141e .

Pro-union protesters will be at Romney's Ohio events to emphasize the following four messages: Ryan voted again China currency manipulation, Romney wanted to "let Detroit go bankrupt," the Ryan budget makes Medicare a voucher program and Romney has written off 47%. Worker's Voice's plans real-time rapid response on anything Romney says about issues like coal and China.

MORE POLLING-

Gallup/USA Today: Obama has a 6-point trust advantage on Medicare (50-44) among voters in 12 swing states.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd703c7dab414879ad86b8c396f97676d4536e8747e410ce90ab
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd703c7dab414879ad86b8c396f97676d4536e8747e410ce90ab

Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald finds Florida tie: Obama, 48; Romney, 47. Adam Smith analysis:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7002f60699e9bc666db7fd4e5738df06eda7c29b020a007aaa
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7002f60699e9bc666db7fd4e5738df06eda7c29b020a007aaa .

Ohio Newspaper Poll (via the Akron Beacon Journal): Obama up 5 (51-46).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7089dee2a317c98d8c94d3e805af940e9575151063b9bac18e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7089dee2a317c98d8c94d3e805af940e9575151063b9bac18e

Star Tribune of Minnesota: Obama leads 8 (48-40).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d85cc2e17a352cd1e26b671b06950ce73eb9ef65852a82e9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d85cc2e17a352cd1e26b671b06950ce73eb9ef65852a82e9

PPP (D)-

Florida: Obama up 4 (50-46).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70eef73514b7e13de034ee5c425216bca6d2730e625197cede
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70eef73514b7e13de034ee5c425216bca6d2730e625197cede

Colorado: Obama up 6 (51-45).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd706731639edf36256447e8671317364ce255c2f9c5a32d59b8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd706731639edf36256447e8671317364ce255c2f9c5a32d59b8

Purple Strategies-

Arizona: Romney up 3 (48-45).

Colorado: Obama up 3 (48-45).

Florida: Romney up 1 (48-47).

North Carolina: Obama up 2 (48-46).

Ohio: Obama up 4 (48-44).

Virginia (Obama up 3 (46-43). 17-page PDF:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70529e2b9184e259f68cc0515df1f9852a2aee56dbd9090721
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70529e2b9184e259f68cc0515df1f9852a2aee56dbd9090721 .

THE AIR WAR-

MCCASKILL ACCUSES AKIN OF SELLING OUT ON EARMARKS: Sen. Claire McCaskill is seizing on reports that embattled Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin agreed to support a ban on earmarks in order to secure support from Jim DeMint's super PAC. A two-minute video highlights tracker footage from the last two years in which Akin repeatedly explains his opposition to such a ban. It highlights a quote from DeMint's super PAC criticizing Akin in the primaries and negative local coverage. It ends with a clip from July in which someone asked Akin if he'd pledge to never support earmarks. "This is one of those 'have you stopped beating your wife' type of questions," he responds. National Journal story
about the shift:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7088d420c46c7820640422fe00d95c7b25a4058005525cf4bd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7088d420c46c7820640422fe00d95c7b25a4058005525cf4bd . Video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7004863b218cfa3140de53c568ba0b55bce49b9689621cbb96
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7004863b218cfa3140de53c568ba0b55bce49b9689621cbb96 .

WEST VIRGINIA SENATE - MANCHIN'S WIFE SAYS HE'S CHEAP: Gayle Manchin has cut her husband Joe's hair for 20 years. The senator's second bio spot shows her cutting it for 30 seconds. "I sponsor this ad because a penny saved is a penny earned," Manchin says. "And he's cheap," his wife chimes in, laughing. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704d37811fa59f2c05730efc8e6235d43408eb2f44d963fcde
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704d37811fa59f2c05730efc8e6235d43408eb2f44d963fcde .

GEORGIA PREVIEW - YG ACTION HITS BARROW: The YG Action Fund goes up today with a $133,000, two-week buy against vulnerable Democrat John Barrow in Augusta and Savannah. It focuses on an editorial in The Augusta Chronicle that called him 'perhaps the most shameless, duplicitous, self-serving politician of his era.' Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70e1a0db953f8ac4b94f6ee8e8cf7a1d657132ff4d71ca3ebd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70e1a0db953f8ac4b94f6ee8e8cf7a1d657132ff4d71ca3ebd .

60 MINUTES PLAYED INTERVIEWS FROM BOTH OBAMA AND ROMNEY: "This is must-watch television if you're looking forward to the debates," Dylan Byers wrote after the show last night. "Both Scott Pelley (who interviewed Romney) and Steve Kroft (who interviewed Obama) acted as moderators rather than interviewers, focusing on well-researched, hard-hitting lines of questioning, and pressing each candidate to account for their respective failures or inconsistencies. Indeed, they even coordinated their final questions to give the impression that the candidates were talking to one another. As a result, each candidate answered with many of the same talking points we're likely to see at the first
debate on October 3 in Denver." Script, plus links to the full segment:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705cc0435b8c9f0fe9ee67d6d1c5f72d8482099e60958508b7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705cc0435b8c9f0fe9ee67d6d1c5f72d8482099e60958508b7 .

ROMNEY TALKERS-

3 WAYS HE THINKS HE'S BEING MISREPRESENTED: The governor came back to talk with reporters on the flight to Denver last night. "First, he pointed to the Democratic talking point that Romney wanted to let the auto industry go bankrupt...Romney also countered that Obama's campaign has been incorrectly describing his view on taxes...Romney also pointed to Democratic advertisements that he says incorrectly depict his stance on abortion...Romney bemoaned that Obama continues to use those attacks advanced by outside groups like the Tax Policy Center that said the GOP nominee would raise taxes on the middle-class. Romney's campaign has sought to discredit that report."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70595a4b2cf051a5fea2d96b2b165714342fd896d24db26621
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70595a4b2cf051a5fea2d96b2b165714342fd896d24db26621

PELOSI OBJECTS TO STARRING ROLE IN AD: "The new 30-second ad, titled 'Mute button,' uses an anecdote from the new Bob Woodward book 'The Price of Politics' that shows Nancy Pelosi muting Obama while he was on a speaker phone during negotiations for the economic stimulus package in the early days of Obama's term," per Seung Min Kim. "In a statement Sunday, Pelosi called the ad 'clearly ... an act of desperation' and denied that she ever muted Obama."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70857d093a5ad7b76a57642cb5edac0a9351d3e3c41308a069
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70857d093a5ad7b76a57642cb5edac0a9351d3e3c41308a069

NEW YORKER PROFILE - HOW MORMONISM SHAPED MITT: Nicholas Lemann writes in a story posted overnight that Romney is "a product of a series of interconnected, tightly enclosed worlds, with their own rules: Mormonism, business school, management consulting, private equity." Henry Eyring, a prominent Mormon and a former management consultant, says Joseph Smith's expulsion from one state after another and his murder in Illinois impressed on Mormons the importance of participating in government: "We are interested in law because of governance, business because of building things. . . . You have to be a builder. You can build it in business, or you can build it in
government. You are not going to be driven out of your home. You will not be persecuted. You will be safe." MORE: While George Romney was "an organization man," Lemann calls Romney "a transaction man: someone who moves assets around with a speed and force that leaves many of the rest of us bewildered." Behind pay wall:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70e0a88315eb63b4e2451151698b18f3db72245dbd937d7c40
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70e0a88315eb63b4e2451151698b18f3db72245dbd937d7c40 .

NYT - "CONSERVATIVES WANT TO 'LET RYANBE RYAN'" ON TRAIL: "If the Republican ticket loses in November, the rush by Mr. Ryan and other 2016 hopefuls to position themselves for the Iowa caucuses 'is going to look like Best Buy the night after Thanksgiving,' said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa. 'I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he'll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700b106dbcc569b13b5f17c2738fc61c3ec303f18152a87842
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700b106dbcc569b13b5f17c2738fc61c3ec303f18152a87842

ROMNEY RAISED $6 MILLION SATURDAY NIGHT: About 1,500 people paid up to $50,000 to see the candidate speak at the Beverly Hilton Hotel, per the LA Times:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70473875163110e45aff4dd555aad66e81a389aa467dd9588d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70473875163110e45aff4dd555aad66e81a389aa467dd9588d .

OBAMA TALKERS-

INCREASING CONCERN THAT POTUS COULD LOSE FOREIGN POLICY EDGE: "From Middle East upheaval to the troubled Afghan war effort to a more assertive Russia," Reuters reports that "Obama is facing pressures that threaten to chip away at a foreign policy record his aides hoped would be immune to Republican attack. The White House is increasingly concerned but isn't hitting the panic button, yet. Administration officials are heartened by [Romney's] own recent foreign policy stumbles and doubt Obama's critics will gain traction in a campaign focused mainly on the U.S. economy. As a result, when Obama speaks inside the cavernous U.N. General Assembly hall on Tuesday exactly six weeks
before the U.S. election, he will seek to reassure American voters as well as world leaders he is on top of the latest global challenges. But he won't propose any new remedies or bold initiatives."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70503d3dd62f8e325a1fdb63b84ce962c5ed90ecb58648d4e7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70503d3dd62f8e325a1fdb63b84ce962c5ed90ecb58648d4e7

SUNDAY SHOW HIGHLIGHTS-

David Gregory and Chris Wallace publicly pressed Obama yesterday to sit down with them:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704d65d09ee453efff6f5524c10952aae300c26a6f5ec84db4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704d65d09ee453efff6f5524c10952aae300c26a6f5ec84db4 .

Bill Clinton claimed on CBS that he has "no earthly idea" what Hillary will decide to do in 2016:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70590cd6652a966804d612af07787fd459309ae772eb46045c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70590cd6652a966804d612af07787fd459309ae772eb46045c .

Scott Walker wants Romney to be more aggressive and passionate on the trail ("fire in the belly," he called it on Fox). He also would like Ryan to have a bigger role on the trail.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70319142e082201b2475b147cc13cc0d966e3f851b7df92e69
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70319142e082201b2475b147cc13cc0d966e3f851b7df92e69

Lindsey Graham said the 47% comment and the tax returns won't move votes on CNN:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70c69852ab77910a79e10dbb0dce45f0beefb6e96639016808
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70c69852ab77910a79e10dbb0dce45f0beefb6e96639016808 .

Reince Priebus gives Peggy Noonan and other critics little "leeway" because he's concerned about the future of the country:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7045e8fe2e878890b627c93dcf44618c6cf08eaeeb69460f44
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7045e8fe2e878890b627c93dcf44618c6cf08eaeeb69460f44 .

Kelly Ayotte said on Meet the Press that the 47% comment was "political analysis at a fundraiser...not a governing philosophy." Deval Patrick said during their debate that the bigger question than Romney's tax returns is what Romney does with the country's taxes. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd701104837d78e11784a0c7f2f28d7589ae873061d85499f7bc
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd701104837d78e11784a0c7f2f28d7589ae873061d85499f7bc .

David Brooks called Romney "the least popular candidate in history" on Meet the Press' panel:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70afcc3ef42ddea34699eb52d4391cf7634799e409e79ee80c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70afcc3ef42ddea34699eb52d4391cf7634799e409e79ee80c .

*** Access the most influential and powerful professionals in the country with POLITICO Jobs - the most effective way to reach and connect the right employers to the right professionals. With a focus on positions in politics, policy, advocacy, government contracting and communications, this one-stop employment source is the best way to find qualified candidates. Whether in print or online, post your job opening today on POLITICO Jobs:
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BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

EARLY VOTING BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS WEEK: "By the end of September, voters in 30 states will start casting early or absentee ballots," Emily Schultheis and Ginger Gibson report. "Absentee ballots have been mailed out in key swing states like North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. In South Dakota and Idaho - firmly red states - early voting began Friday, and in-person early voting in the crucial swing state of Iowa begins this Thursday."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70577f724dab13e904771a222d5aab97c243d895271286d495
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70577f724dab13e904771a222d5aab97c243d895271286d495

STUDY SAYS 10 MILLION HISPANICS COULD BE DISENFRANCHISED: "New voting laws in 23 of the 50 states could keep more than 10 million Hispanic U.S. citizens from registering and voting," a study being released today by the Advancement Project says, according to Reuters.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70fc739576d9afa2fdea1cee5f90a41a4b4677dce3d7a0fa6d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70fc739576d9afa2fdea1cee5f90a41a4b4677dce3d7a0fa6d

NO NEBRASKA REPEAT FOR OBAMA: Republicans have redrawn the second congressional district to make it redder, which means Obama is virtually certain not to carry the one electoral vote out of the state that he did four years ago:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70142007c89ca7845c660c41e7862afa2b920d43997fc6de5d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70142007c89ca7845c660c41e7862afa2b920d43997fc6de5d .

SWING STATE HEADLINES-

"We're going to beat him" - The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert got an exclusive interview with Ryan this weekend:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70b26988fda51651542f8459d92820989745ddec5ee09ce5bd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70b26988fda51651542f8459d92820989745ddec5ee09ce5bd .

Shot - Las Vegas Sun: "Some labor unions question dividends of helping to elect Democrats."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7055bb5dc013d25fb6f344491ff0276e232053c0c02a62efee
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7055bb5dc013d25fb6f344491ff0276e232053c0c02a62efee

Chaser - Concord Monitor: "Biden rallies union supporters."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd702189c50adf14c1f2e98897929e0f70f698101f32d41751a6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd702189c50adf14c1f2e98897929e0f70f698101f32d41751a6

Denver Post: "Romney refocuses on the economy at Jefferson County rally." Huge crowd:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70a425ecb723f3af3e2a6148a651564a5f6dd83d4bdb13d56b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70a425ecb723f3af3e2a6148a651564a5f6dd83d4bdb13d56b .

Cleveland Plain Dealer: "Romney heads west (of Interstate 75)."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70be8e0911a6d779af1f5f02fcdd7cd8df91cd6ad3f314160c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70be8e0911a6d779af1f5f02fcdd7cd8df91cd6ad3f314160c

Des Moines Register: "Iowa sees $29.6 million TV inundation" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d9cbf67b89c88927506bd77b561bc47dc3af252daf0def48
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d9cbf67b89c88927506bd77b561bc47dc3af252daf0def48 ) and "Romney says Obama wants to force people to join unions" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ae7e58dc2eb431bae36ebe4f4fa349bccb0373da58f20703
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ae7e58dc2eb431bae36ebe4f4fa349bccb0373da58f20703 )

Sioux City Journal: "New voting blocs emerge in Storm Lake."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd707e23eca2c6852888b9d59ca8cb9b3db51f9268978670dedd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd707e23eca2c6852888b9d59ca8cb9b3db51f9268978670dedd

Miami Herald: "Paul Ryan to Little Havana: 'We will be tough on Castro.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704ceb0633c327044b22b7c54af860475b095d45d9f427cbb0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704ceb0633c327044b22b7c54af860475b095d45d9f427cbb0

Philadelphia Inquirer: "Other counties may join in using voter-ID law loophole."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d45c0bf9cc820ba7137f66bb6924a109456b70e362f04f31
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70d45c0bf9cc820ba7137f66bb6924a109456b70e362f04f31

Roanoke Times: "Are Romney mailings on target or off target?"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70c7a7f3cf9b7d4aadbe5599a684831a436d4b486a3c6f4655
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70c7a7f3cf9b7d4aadbe5599a684831a436d4b486a3c6f4655

The Washington Post (VA): "Virgil Goode campaigns for president against the odds."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700461232631d302286c9ed92c654ee2db19a503b01ef3833e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd700461232631d302286c9ed92c654ee2db19a503b01ef3833e

AP: "Why it matters: Debt."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70c89faeb41f77876f948e918d4d79a2e6f66fd98bfcec16ed
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70c89faeb41f77876f948e918d4d79a2e6f66fd98bfcec16ed

Charlotte Observer: "Republican recruiter refuses to be shy on tough topics; Charlottean works tirelessly to inspire passion for upcoming election." Profile:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70f14bb705325b16d43d17f7e2439aaf2ced0e49160aae8238
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70f14bb705325b16d43d17f7e2439aaf2ced0e49160aae8238 .

MAINE SENATE-NRSC ENGAGES KING: Things are heating up in Maine. Angus King is reportedly holding an 11 a.m. press conference in Portland tomorrow to attack outside money generally and the NRSC's statewide ad that went up Friday specifically (watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70adbbffde7050fd393ba115a508b8d825889ab90841232000
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70adbbffde7050fd393ba115a508b8d825889ab90841232000 ). State and national Republicans plan to pre-empt that presser with releases highlighting key questions for King. One of their talking points will be that their ad highlights people who live in the area affected by his wind farm project while King's ad features actor Sam Waterson, who doesn't live in Maine. They'll also draw attention to reports he was in DC to raise money from Democratic lobbyists last week.

NEW YORK HOUSE - GRIMM CLAIMS OFFICE BREAK-IN: "Republican Rep. Michael Grimm says politically motivated vandals broke into his campaign headquarters on Staten Island and erased some computers - but cops aren't so sure," the Daily News reports. "Campaign workers said they found cinder blocks hurled through the windows of the Hylan Blvd. office late Sunday morning and later discovered a computer hard-drive containing campaign files and polling data had been erased. Grimm, a former FBI agent who is facing an ongoing federal probe into illegal fundraising activity, charged foul play. 'I do believe this is a politically motivated crime,' said the freshman lawmaker in a statement. 'This is a
disgraceful act of cowardice that is beneath the people I represent.' Police said they had found no evidence of forced entry at the campaign headquarters. Cops are investigating the allegation as an act [of] criminal mischief and not burglary, sources said. Grimm is in a close race with Democrat Mark Murphy."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ce689cf73a938cc34bf6d5cde4d259b1d4f9cbdc74df12fb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ce689cf73a938cc34bf6d5cde4d259b1d4f9cbdc74df12fb

LIGHTER CLICKS -

SNL made fun of dumb undecided voters (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705fa4d0c445899423fbe9298fed5bafb88ab2710430dfda9d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd705fa4d0c445899423fbe9298fed5bafb88ab2710430dfda9d ), Obama's comment that you can't change Washington from the inside (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7042dd8ba5f63ff35f5bdbda38cb3c38c29136aaac39efa07f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd7042dd8ba5f63ff35f5bdbda38cb3c38c29136aaac39efa07f ) and Ann Romney (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704a204b31dc8e271ef55cf7c1cef2d13c39f4ba17cf370dda
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd704a204b31dc8e271ef55cf7c1cef2d13c39f4ba17cf370dda ).

"GAME CHANGE" (including the actors) won five Emmy's last night:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd708bf84ec0f1bc4d83cd60a0a4d18884df32d467f67f26ad43
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd708bf84ec0f1bc4d83cd60a0a4d18884df32d467f67f26ad43 .

JON STEWART got tackled by Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel after he again won the Emmy for best variety show (it was a joke):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ed3bdc18c5b7186273c379c6d7ad3c472d4284276eb3c096
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ed3bdc18c5b7186273c379c6d7ad3c472d4284276eb3c096 .

TOM DONILON, the National Security Adviser, is profiled on A1 of today's New York Times:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70efa02881a36ad2d417156a6d591cd979bf4e19ca708c0cd8
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70efa02881a36ad2d417156a6d591cd979bf4e19ca708c0cd8 .

RICHARD NIXON delivered his "Checkers" TV address 60 years ago yesterday. Lee Huebner, former publisher of the International Herald Tribune and a speechwriter in the Nixon White House, reflects in the Atlantic:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70277e075f6f7bed23e2f0ef1dbdde1e4ab49d66c2b1d4a75f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70277e075f6f7bed23e2f0ef1dbdde1e4ab49d66c2b1d4a75f .

RICK PERRY had a serious but previously undiagnosed sleep disorder that ailed his presidential campaign, the Texas Tribune's Jay Root says in a new eBook:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70036311bf5398ce4acacea170b2b58e50694ec23e3946dfb2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70036311bf5398ce4acacea170b2b58e50694ec23e3946dfb2 .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Go Trojans!" -Egypt's Islamist President, Mohamed Morsi, reminisces on his graduate study at the University of Southern California in an interview with the New York Times
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ea7984d26dd09ebc129b962e396fcb2739a5b260a17b0b7d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd70ea7984d26dd09ebc129b962e396fcb2739a5b260a17b0b7d

*** Access the most influential and powerful professionals in the country with POLITICO Jobs - the most effective way to reach and connect the right employers to the right professionals. With a focus on positions in politics, policy, advocacy, government contracting and communications, this one-stop employment source is the best way to find qualified candidates. Whether in print or online, post your job opening today on POLITICO Jobs:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=19f1a5c39030fd701f28ff79bf3612da05898010a08f4039d8c1b786a1abb0db
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