EMAIL DETAILS

By James Hohmann (
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

EXCLUSIVE - CROSSROADS LAUNCHES FIVE NEW ADS: The conservative super PAC and its non-profit affiliate will spend $5.5 million for a week of commercials on network and cable in five Senate races-

INDIANA: With polls showing a competitive race, Crossroads GPS is going hard into the Hoosier State to drive up the Democrat's negatives. "When he went to Washington, Joe Donnelly promised to resist pressure from all sides to increase spending or to increase taxes," the narrator says. "But when President Obama needed Donnelly's vote to pass his TRILLION-dollar health care bill, Donnelly said yes. When Obama needed his vote to pass a TRILLION-dollar stimulus, Donnelly said yes. And five times Donnelly voted to raise the debt limit by $5 TRILLION. So why would Donnelly vote any different if we gave him a promotion?"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c01f1252d02479761dfe174ebe59cab4672788867e9eda91b4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c01f1252d02479761dfe174ebe59cab4672788867e9eda91b4 .

VIRGINIA: "Tim Kaine is so addicted to more spending [that] he proposed tax hikes on Virginians making $17,000 a year. It's true! Kaine's tax plan would have hit families living paycheck to paycheck. That's wrong! And Kaine's backed a Washington deal that means massive cuts to national defense, threatening over 200,000 Virginia jobs. That's reckless! Tim Kaine, the wrong priorities for Virginia."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c01f0f7572f7ff28c81673a03bc105edc5f58064a4adbd7eb6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c01f0f7572f7ff28c81673a03bc105edc5f58064a4adbd7eb6

NEVADA: "Say this about Shelley Berkley, she goes BIG," a narrator says over unflattering pictures of the congresswoman. "On ethics, Berkley's named among the MOST corrupt. Berkley voted for the LARGEST tax increase in American history, a big job killer. Now she backs a plan to raise taxes on nearly a million small businesses next year. That would destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs. Shelley Berkley: big tax hikes, big job losses, a BIG mistake for Nevada."

http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0f7c0ca4304d682f1892224d469ab79b1df75af4c329d3017
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0f7c0ca4304d682f1892224d469ab79b1df75af4c329d3017

OHIO: "When Sherrod Brown voted for Obamacare, Ohio manufacturers got a new tax. When Ohio manufacturers get new taxes, they don't hire. When manufacturers don't hire, people don't have jobs. When people don't have jobs, they ask why Sherrod Brown voted with Obama 95% of the time. When you vote 95% of the time, it hurts Ohio. Don't let Sherrod Brown hurt Ohio. It's time to boot Brown."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0399386699ed1f6a56a6f001cc2a3c33309abf948325c54e7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0399386699ed1f6a56a6f001cc2a3c33309abf948325c54e7

FLORIDA: "This is where seniors could find out their Medicare have been rationed or don't cover their treatments," a narrator says, with a photo of a hospital room on the screen. "And this is where 15 unelected bureaucrats could decide to cut Medicare spending, cuts that could go into effect without congressional approval," he adds, showing a conference room. "And this is where Senator [Bill] Nelson cast the deciding vote for Obamacare," he goes on, with a photo of the Capitol in the background, "cutting Medicare spending by $700 billion and letting an unelected board decide what gets covered here."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0d1d7d03922b86e530f9208ad994c01f887caa7ca31b9ad68
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0d1d7d03922b86e530f9208ad994c01f887caa7ca31b9ad68

WISCONSIN EXCLUSIVE - WOMEN VOTE! SAYS THOMPSON SOLD OUT: "I voted for Tommy Thompson, but I can't vote for him now. He's changed," an older woman says in a new 30-second ad paid for by the independent expenditure arm of EMILY's List. "Since leaving Wisconsin, Tommy's sold his influence and connections to firms who would benefit on Capitol Hill to 'fatten his wallet,'" a narrator says.The total buy is around $350,000 - spread across broadcast and cable in Milwaukee, Green Bay and Wausau. The race is a top target for EMILY's List in part because Democrat Tammy Baldwin is a strong ally. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0e131b17d8e7f37dbf3bc51e7217b12283bbbd8da6727961e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0e131b17d8e7f37dbf3bc51e7217b12283bbbd8da6727961e .

NEW YORK PREVIEW - DCCC TIES CHALLENGER TO PAUL RYAN: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee independent expenditure arm hits Matt Doheny, who is challenging incumbent Bill Owens, for saying the Ryan budget "doesn't go far enough." An incredulous narrator chimes in: "It's not far enough to end the guarantee of Medicare?! It's not far enough to charge seniors an extra $6,400 so Doheny can hand more tax breaks to millionaires like himself?!" Alex Isenstadt wrote two weeks ago that the DCCC planned to make Paul Ryan the face of the Medicare attack:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c02f688bff5adc9fdcc32c58008f2e32d9b857f344ad22d7e7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c02f688bff5adc9fdcc32c58008f2e32d9b857f344ad22d7e7 . And they have in this ad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c015c730aa875997640178075837320533d5ff730ec8a49ea7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c015c730aa875997640178075837320533d5ff730ec8a49ea7 .

As it comes out Elizabeth Warren represented corporate clients, police say Grimm's office doesn't appear to actually have been burglarized and Mia Love's immigration story faces scrutiny, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE TRAIL TODAY-

OBAMA in NEW YORK: Speaks to the UN General Assembly at 10:10 and the Clinton Global Initiative at 12:10. He's back at the White House around 2:30. Jay Carney will gaggle aboard Air Force One.

ROMNEY in NYC and OHIO: Addresses the Clinton Global Initiative at 9 and the NBC Education Nation Summit at 11:10. Then he flies to Ohio for a 3 p.m. rally in Vandalia.

RYAN in OHIO: Continues the bus tour with a town hall in Cincinnati at 11:30. Then Romney will catch up with him before their joint 3 p.m. rally in Vandalia.

BIDEN in VIRGINIA: 10:45 rally at the Chesterfield Fairgrounds.

COUNTDOWN: 42 days.

MESSAGING-

OBAMA VIDEO SHOWS "AVERAGE AMERICANS" COMPLAINING ABOUT ROMNEY TAXES: Chicago has prepared another 2-minute man-on-the-street-style video with people likely to make less than $50,000 a year - including college students and working moms - wringing their hands about how they pay a higher effective tax rate than Romney and taking umbrage at the 47% comment. The video includes a clip of Romney on 60 Minutes saying that lower rates for investment income spurs economic growth. The tagline: "Romney on tax fairness: Tax cuts for millionaires. Tax hikes (and insults) for the middle class." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0624b47892e76b16e0c4b1dc3047e31a384218ffd144052bf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0624b47892e76b16e0c4b1dc3047e31a384218ffd144052bf .

OBAMA WILL SPEAK ABOUT LIBYA ATTACK AT UN: "The attacks of the last two weeks are not simply an assault on America. They are also an assault on the very ideals upon which the United Nations was founded," Obama is to say, according to excerpts of his remarks released by the White House. "If we are serious about those ideals, we must speak honestly about the deeper causes of this crisis. Because we face a choice between the forces that would drive us apart, and the hopes we hold in common...Today, we must affirm that our future will be determined by people like Chris Stevens, and not by his killers. Today, we must declare that this violence and intolerance has no place among our United
Nations." Josh Gerstein raises the curtain:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0f155dbf2e0e8e3d09ac978f558f8e51143e0ce79e1d94c30
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0f155dbf2e0e8e3d09ac978f558f8e51143e0ce79e1d94c30 .

ROMNEY'S NYC SPEECH WILL FOCUS ON FOREIGN ASSISTANCE: "He will outline his vision to bring our foreign assistance strategy into the 21st Century and harness the power of free enterprise to spur development," Boston emails. "Our assistance programs do not fully take into account that foreign aid no longer makes up the majority of capital flowing into the developing world as it did decades ago. While worldwide foreign aid is $130 billion, trade with the developing world currently amounts to $8.5 trillion and foreign direct investment is $663 billion. But too often, our foreign aid programs try to supplant private enterprise. And they concentrate too greatly on delivering social services
instead of seeking policy reforms and building institutional capacity so that societies can afford to pay for critical social services over time." Here's a 2-page summary sheet on Romney's "Prosperity Pact" program:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0fa7c75f13420e1cc09b28f8d0c62d41a8825c51ae47e3413
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0fa7c75f13420e1cc09b28f8d0c62d41a8825c51ae47e3413 .

BRACKETING BIDEN: Two mobile billboards will roam Richmond to highlight Obama's cuts to Medicare. Photo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c03db21c3de3cafc9ff539cfbe48229ce4351bd81e72bc60eb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c03db21c3de3cafc9ff539cfbe48229ce4351bd81e72bc60eb . Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling has this op-ed in the Washington Times:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c07497db7fe64ca8af365ba9e566b51a0610a445f59c120ef5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c07497db7fe64ca8af365ba9e566b51a0610a445f59c120ef5

POLLING-

First in Score-Daily Kos/SEIU puts Obama up 5 nationally. The automated poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, found that 52% disagree with the statement that "47% of Americans are dependent on government and believe that they are victims." 46% of likely voters said the comments made them more concerned about Romney's economic policies for the middle class. 11-page crosstabs:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0887ac85976ddf158dcda5aeb181f2d3e28e3e19c00979118
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0887ac85976ddf158dcda5aeb181f2d3e28e3e19c00979118 .

Winston Group (R) national: Obama up 2 (48-46) among registered voters.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0d5f02fbd0022437597cbd1f6a8a906024e2382815550d6e2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0d5f02fbd0022437597cbd1f6a8a906024e2382815550d6e2

Pew: 54% are either very or fairly satisfied with their presidential choices this year. 40% are not too or not at all satisfied. The satisfaction number is the lowest since 1992.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c05d22be1504fee2f2b06d583ebe50e46f529c4438aad6f9c7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c05d22be1504fee2f2b06d583ebe50e46f529c4438aad6f9c7

Gallup: "Americans say there is too much (47%) rather than too little (26%) government regulation of business and industry, with 24% saying the amount of regulation is about right."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0bed49eb69e2f78b035a57176bc7efcb29ac4ff63d9941545
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0bed49eb69e2f78b035a57176bc7efcb29ac4ff63d9941545

Yale/George Mason national: Only 45% of likely Romney voters believe global warming is happening, 33% say it's not and 22% say they don't know. 86% of likely Obama voters say it's happening. 11-page report:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0bebdc7b77f6c7841b2095b7036819b0aaf8b427bf577517f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0bebdc7b77f6c7841b2095b7036819b0aaf8b427bf577517f .

Pennsylvania-4: Republican Scott Perry has a 22-point lead in an internal poll conducted for his campaign by the Tarrance Group of the newly-drawn district. Democrat Harry Perkinson polled at 30 percent, underperforming Democratic registration in the district. Exclusive 1-page memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c000b6888fef10c3e548fcfbf7639ff75cead9fd6c9991c31a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c000b6888fef10c3e548fcfbf7639ff75cead9fd6c9991c31a .

THE AIR WAR-

MOVEON PUTS "VOTERS, NOT VICTIMS" ON THE AIR IN ROANOKE: MoveOn.org Political Action will put a homemade, 30-second video on the air. Donna StClair says her husband Bruce, 63, spent 41 years helping build nuclear reactors for Navy submarines and paid his fair share of taxes. Now he suffers from Alzheimer's disease (in the video, he's shown playing with Legos on the ground) and collects Social Security and disability benefits. "He's not a victim," Donna says at the end of the commercial. "He's my hero." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c032053408132d9302a218b48d34beebb2670cbc4a16cf61c6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c032053408132d9302a218b48d34beebb2670cbc4a16cf61c6 .

INDIANA SENATE - DONNELLY DISTANCES HIMSELF: As Crossroads ties him to the president, Joe Donnelly touts his independence with another statewide ad today that criticizes Republican Richard Mourdock for denigrating the value of compromise. "Out in Washington there are politicians on the far left and on the Tea Party right who just fight.I'm in the Hoosier common sense middle," Donnelly says. "So I joined Republicans for a balanced budget amendment [and] to extend the Bush tax cuts. Let's work together to stop China's unfair trade policies. Richard Mourdock fights for tax breaks for companies that drive jobs to China." The Donnelly campaign cites 2012 CQ ratings to say he's opposed the
president 30 percent of the time and broke with his party more than all but six Democrats. Midday yesterday, his campaign sent a press release with the subject line: "Donnelly Breaks with President Obama on Coal." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0bbf7d7c3713dda0d6665b4bbee7e7e92fd5f8a6870b2258d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0bbf7d7c3713dda0d6665b4bbee7e7e92fd5f8a6870b2258d .

VIRGINIA SENATE - ALLEN SAYS KAINE WANTS TO RAISE EVERYONE'S TAXES: George Allen's new commercial uses video of Tim Kaine's gaffe during last Thursday's debate, in which the Democrat said he's open to everyone paying a certain minimum tax during a discussion of Romney's 47% comments. "Four years as Governor: billions in proposed tax increases, bitter debates, nearly shutting down state government, tax hikes for anyone earning as little as $17,000 a year," a narrator says. "And now: 'I would be open to a proposal to have some minimum tax level for everyone.' Tim Kaine: raising taxes on everyone." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c066185441b3ac0f501541ce9ce1171647bf5cf16c3759f2eb
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c066185441b3ac0f501541ce9ce1171647bf5cf16c3759f2eb .

The state Democratic Party accuses Allen of not having a plan to avert defense cuts in a new 90-second web video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0e86850a0d04e9ae6b1a54b4a82e44d673ab014c7e077eaf7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0e86850a0d04e9ae6b1a54b4a82e44d673ab014c7e077eaf7 .

ARIZONA SENATE - CARMONA SAYS FLAKE VOTES AGAINST THE TROOPS: "From the jungles of Vietnam to life-saving rescues at home, Rich Carmona's always answered the call. In the Senate, he'll support our veterans because he's lived it," a narrator says in a new ad for the Democrat. "But career politician Jeff Flake is part of the problem: Flake voted repeatedly to cut veterans benefits, cutting veterans' health care and job training - even voting against a combat bonus for our troops. Congressman Jeff Flake helps himself - not us." This begins running statewide this morning:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c08f8e822848470145dc21ff6a5f76b5d00243e53ff0cd427a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c08f8e822848470145dc21ff6a5f76b5d00243e53ff0cd427a .

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE - WARREN RESPONDS TO INDIAN ATTACK: "As a kid, I never asked my mom for documentation when she talked about our Native American heritage," Democrat Elizabeth Warren says in a 30-second ad responding to yesterday's devastating Scott Brown commercial. "What kid would? But I knew my father's family didn't like that she was part Cherokee and part Delaware, so they had to elope. So let me be clear: I never asked for and never got any benefit because of my heritage. The people who hired me have all said they didn't even know it. Scott Brown can keep attacking my family, but I'm going to keep fighting for yours." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c09cef0c1fc6d9bd25c43eeb7ea5dd8ad2d8870b510408b657
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c09cef0c1fc6d9bd25c43eeb7ea5dd8ad2d8870b510408b657 .

NOVA - PLANNED PARENTHOOD AD SAYS "ROMNEY OUT OF TOUCH": "I could feel a lump in my abdomen. I was very scared. Planned Parenthood saved my life with an early diagnosis of cancer," Cynthia Wilson says in an ad that will run in northern Virginia. "We're talking about real lives here. I believe Mitt Romney is out of touch. I think he just does not have any idea how many lives he's devastating." Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0af8c92eb32eecc4ddab9fe72a660a8bc508673d0d9c4b233
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0af8c92eb32eecc4ddab9fe72a660a8bc508673d0d9c4b233 .

OBAMA TALKERS-

AUDACITY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY CAUTION: Obama is "running as the kind of careful, poll-watching politician he disdained the first time he ran for president," Glenn Thrush and Maggie Haberman write in the story leading our site this morning. "Obama 2012 has become the silver-templed soul of caution, embracing Napoleon's dictum of 'never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,' in the opinion of one veteran Obama campaign aide. In doing so, Obama's campaign team is seeking to take advantage of Romney's own well-chronicled reluctance, at least so far, to release a slate of policy proposals comparable to the detailed blueprints put forth by Obama and other candidates four years ago. At
the moment, both candidates have a bad case of the vagues heading into their trio of debates - but the dangers of an audacity-free campaign may have especially nasty consequences for Obama, whose calling card, even now, is boldness and transformational change."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0204ab1bf80ea7b0c4d5193e8afe33df87e39568e7a12e37e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0204ab1bf80ea7b0c4d5193e8afe33df87e39568e7a12e37e

VETERANS OUTREACH HASN'T WORKED: "Even as Obama leads in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Romney is up by double digits among veterans in those states. Nationwide, he's got a commanding 20-percentage-point lead over Obama and has even overtaken the president with younger veterans," Darren Samuelsohn reports. "In the campaign's final weeks, Obama will try to close the gap among veterans by pressing Romney over several foreign policy stumbles as well as a lack of specifics on his plans for troops...Obama's campaign wants to increase turnout among younger veterans thanks to the repeal of the ban on gays in the military under the 'don't ask, don't tell' policy ... and also win over the
recently enlisted who can benefit from the post-Sept. 11 GI Bill and other education and career placement benefits."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c00775d83aefc38e440d86170db3e1bb696affa7a61ed6d6e7
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c00775d83aefc38e440d86170db3e1bb696affa7a61ed6d6e7

ROMNEY TALKERS-

HARRY REID ATTACKS MITT'S MORMONISM: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he agrees with a fellow Mormon who wrote recently that Mitt Romney has 'sullied' the LDS faith and that the GOP presidential candidate is 'not the face of Mormonism,'" the Salt Lake Tribune reports. "Reid, a Mormon Democrat from Nevada, blasted Romney in a conference call for reporters over a litany of things the Republican nominee has said recently. And Reid added that Latter-day Saints aren't buying Romney's rhetoric. 'He's coming to a state where there are a lot of members of the LDS Church,' Reid said in advance of Romney's Friday visit to Nevada. 'They understand that he is not the face of Mormonism.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c05840a7201f416a7cf2668e7875cdd194020a75f2d2186c40
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c05840a7201f416a7cf2668e7875cdd194020a75f2d2186c40

MOST HOUSE GOP CANDIDATES EMBRACING ROMNEY: "Few Republican House candidates have thrown Romney overboard," Alex Isenstadt notes. "Even as the nominee is forced to explain his politically damaging remarks about the 47 percent...Republican prospects, by and large, say identifying with the GOP ticket is their best path to victory. Republicans in swing districts need a strong turnout from the base on Election Day. And Romney still claims support from loyal GOP voters, despite the endless criticism he's endured from the press and party sages. Republican officials, who have spent much of the past week pouring over Romney's poll numbers in the most competitive congressional districts, say they
have concluded that voters are unlikely to take out their unhappiness with Romney on down-ballot candidates - even if the GOP nominee collapses even further."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0a8fd89c1e91236cd2f54a5c1643fa104e0023e49ceb4d32b
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0a8fd89c1e91236cd2f54a5c1643fa104e0023e49ceb4d32b

TRANSITION EFFORTS INTENSIFYING: They're moving into official office space and holding meetings on Capitol Hill. "The team has also begun reaching out to K Streeters and former Republican administration officials to get guidance on the Senate confirmation process and recommendations for jobs in a possible Romney White House," Anna Palmer reports. "Dubbed 'The Readiness Project' inside Romneyworld, the effort began in earnest after the Republican National Convention and is not only focused on compiling a list of job candidates, but also designed to create a 200-day roadmap for congressional relations during the post-election lame duck session and beyond."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c09f4fe07da74f28adfb60cbc6eb40cb2ffc5bcb8d48ee7bae
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c09f4fe07da74f28adfb60cbc6eb40cb2ffc5bcb8d48ee7bae

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BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

KEY NEVADA UNION BACKS OFF THREAT, GOES ALL IN FOR OBAMA: "It's not exactly the cavalry coming over the Spring Mountains in Las Vegas, but Obama and fellow Democrats will be getting some important help in Nevada from the Culinary Workers Union, a potent political force that was threatening to sit out the November election," the LA Times' Mark Barabak reports. "In an interview last spring, the union chief, D. Taylor, expressed frustration that Democrats had not done more to help Culinary Local 226 in a long, bitter organizing battle with Stations Casinos...Some Democrats -- and savants like Nevada's uber political analyst Jon Ralston - suggested that Taylor, a notoriously hard
bargainer, had been bluffing all along."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c030d74de2ff849fdf577f0ee1ee272ce9875d769d5e310be5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c030d74de2ff849fdf577f0ee1ee272ce9875d769d5e310be5

NEVADA DEMS WIDEN REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE: "The Democrats have extended their registration lead to about 65,000 voters over the Republicans, continuing an inexorable stretching of a lead that could make the difference in November in critical races," Ralston reports on his new site. "To put this in perspective, the Democrats had lost so much of their lead -- once at 100,000-plus statewide in the halcyon days of 2008 -- that it was down to 37,000 voters in January. It now appears the Democrats may double that lead by the time registration closes in three weeks. These numbers are not determinative. But considering I have been told by those who have seen numbers that the president is leading
among independents, a strong base turnout could put the president over the top and drag down-ticket folks to victory -- even those who don't deserve to win." Nevada:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0aebc25643050e5f2679af4c2676c4562af7033c4b4434f7c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0aebc25643050e5f2679af4c2676c4562af7033c4b4434f7c . National Review points to GOP gains elsewhere:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0b49f5416e0d969f561e8db6897e9ec47a6b7066b911b325c
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0b49f5416e0d969f561e8db6897e9ec47a6b7066b911b325c .

SWING STATE HEADLINES-

WPTV (NBC West Palm Beach affiliate): "Ryan says reversal of DADT repeal is step in wrong direction." He gave them a weekend interview:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c043ace9ca4e0efd88be52235fe09b1b1e7ec27550ca9744f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c043ace9ca4e0efd88be52235fe09b1b1e7ec27550ca9744f9 .

Philadelphia Inquirer: "Driven by demographics and economics, the state is shifting in ways that make electoral forecasts difficult."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c01459ec15d62bf8c3e7ded9c0c991c99783ddaff44a9bf703
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c01459ec15d62bf8c3e7ded9c0c991c99783ddaff44a9bf703

Miami Herald: "The once hot-button topic of Guantanamo that President Barack Obama pressed in his first presidential race is a non-issue this time around."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0482c24868390602356cffbeee4c69892b5c33cc194db6110
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0482c24868390602356cffbeee4c69892b5c33cc194db6110

Cleveland Plain Dealer: "Obama campaign says Romney 'not one of us' in response to Ohio coal country commercials."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0be17f35261858c4085b467b14e8db29e750dad1a55ab17b6
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0be17f35261858c4085b467b14e8db29e750dad1a55ab17b6

Toledo Blade: "Military, foreign affairs top Paul Ryan's campaign in Lima."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0685b3252f1bb6cdadfd5b76e7588299c04f0211e1701d0cd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0685b3252f1bb6cdadfd5b76e7588299c04f0211e1701d0cd

Columbus Dispatch: "Ryan talks defense cuts during stop in Ohio."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c08a0a3fe97ee2146e893de63a3712f1b0c04349a53050c2f9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c08a0a3fe97ee2146e893de63a3712f1b0c04349a53050c2f9

Denver Post: "Romney knocks Obama on 'bumps in the road' foreign policy comments."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c080def66f3d6c6502580b5abfbab42beca125cc0e08028a09
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c080def66f3d6c6502580b5abfbab42beca125cc0e08028a09

Pueblo Chieftain: "Romney to Pueblo: 'I will do better than this president has done for the American people.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0b7fbb8a61fb3334c19df85a7a3d3f6e481f601a6ea669666
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0b7fbb8a61fb3334c19df85a7a3d3f6e481f601a6ea669666

Des Moines Register: "Rallies highlight November's vote on Iowa Supreme Court justice."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0426434258c1308607ea0ab986d3bb22505e08492584c4740
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0426434258c1308607ea0ab986d3bb22505e08492584c4740

USA Today: "Obama has edge in political merchandise."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0a36d2d853d0b09a70a2918e49e28bc1911a4c702c91f3f62
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0a36d2d853d0b09a70a2918e49e28bc1911a4c702c91f3f62

Palm Beach Post: "Romney, surrogates accuse Obama of slighting Israel."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c08b51ab069a9980f4f008c40f0dd2b6a68c9eb6b934318045
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c08b51ab069a9980f4f008c40f0dd2b6a68c9eb6b934318045

The Washington Post: "Obama's policy on Iran bears some fruit, but nuclear program still advances."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0c6d3a3e5c8e5e40b157577a86a7e6063d48908550383dc85
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0c6d3a3e5c8e5e40b157577a86a7e6063d48908550383dc85

WHAT BOSTON IN READING IN ADVANCE OF OBAMA'S OHIO TRIP-

BuzzFeed: "White House Touted Partnership With Chinese Firm Romney Invested In; But the Obama campaign is attacking Romney for the investment."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c07079a1442bdb101bca05fa5a8ea29d865c7d302230a83f04
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c07079a1442bdb101bca05fa5a8ea29d865c7d302230a83f04

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in May: "Once Again, The U.S. Treasury Department Has Given China A Free Pass When It Comes To Its Currency Manipulation."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c051fe29e10ecd9baa85ea64a34053f90706ed8d2dde3619e1
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c051fe29e10ecd9baa85ea64a34053f90706ed8d2dde3619e1

In January, Brown said "Chinese currency manipulation undercuts Ohio products by an estimated 25 to 40 percent, killing manufacturing jobs." Dayton Daily News:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0af457fbcdab639c9d44b36654b9c8c001de5248f36c6a140
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c0af457fbcdab639c9d44b36654b9c8c001de5248f36c6a140 .

In June, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) told Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner: "China continues to flout international trade laws by manipulating its currency value to increase its trade advantages. ... This is completely unacceptable. All that our people are asking for is a level playing field." Tribune Chronicle:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c094cfb99619c1a6130997504d6804c5be60e58169382fa28d
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=532994eb730f11c094cfb99619c1a6130997504d6804c5be60e58169382fa28d .

OCTOBER SURPRISES:I'm extending this one more day. What could happen this election, besides an Israeli strike on Iran, to unexpectedly shake up the dynamic of the race? What could move the needle, abroad or at home? Please email your thinking to
mailto:jhohmann@politico.com
jhohmann@politico.com . Tomorrow I'll round up a mix of the smartest, buzziest and most plausible responses. Background is fine.

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE - WARREN REPRESENTED MINING COMPANY: "Scott Brown has attacked Elizabeth Warren in recent days for her legal work on behalf of Travelers Insurance in an asbestos case, asserting that it undermines her reputation as a consumer advocate. But Travelers is not the only large corporation Warren has represented," The Boston Globe's Noah Bierman reports today. "Warren also helped write a petition to the US Supreme Court for LTV Steel in the 1990s, assisting the former industrial conglomerate in its fight against a congressional requirement that it pay millions of dollars into a fund for its retired coal miners' health care. Her advocacy on behalf of a large corporation,
opposing a mandate to pay for the health benefits of blue-collar retirees and their families, would seem to undercut her image as a middle-class champion...But Warren's campaign argues that the retirees' benefits were not in danger, even if LTV had won its legal battle. And it argues that she was fighting for a principle that could protect less powerful people who have claims against bankrupt companies." Globe:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dd7f53bb42851170e870b5cbd4f3631277eae06756f67a0d5
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dd7f53bb42851170e870b5cbd4f3631277eae06756f67a0d5 .

This is the COVER story of today's Boston Herald ("COAL-LATERAL DAMAGE"):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dafbff362eef924a257c505f0bcdac5eadd1182b2127eafae
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dafbff362eef924a257c505f0bcdac5eadd1182b2127eafae .

MORE - BROWN THREATENS SUIT TO PREVENT VETS VOTING RIGHTS: Scott Brown's campaign attorney wrote a letter to the Massachusetts secretary of state, which was delivered last night, saying that unless ballots are sent to soldiers serving overseas immediately, as they say is dictated by law, the campaign will sue the commonwealth. Read the letter:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d89208cda7e714e7b8604d09e656f0fa13c4568d603ec94b9
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d89208cda7e714e7b8604d09e656f0fa13c4568d603ec94b9 .

CONNECTICUT SENATE - MCMAHON LATE WITH PROPERTY TAX BILLS: "Although Linda McMahon has been sharply criticizing her Democratic opponent Chris Murphy for not paying his bills on time, it turns out the Republican senate nominee also has her own history of late payment," the Hartford Courant reports. "For the second time in less than a week, a review of municipal records by The Courant show that McMahon also failed to pay her property taxes on time. She paid the property taxes on her Greenwich home late four times since 1984 and was assessed close to $2,000 in interest and penalties. This comes a few days after news that McMahon was six weeks late this month paying taxes on a Stamford condo
she owns with her husband Vince. Tit-for-tat accusations have dominated the U.S. Senate campaign, which has included relatively little debate about policy matters and much talk about late payment of bills."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d651e7ecc6d7b45cdb15c6b5a7aef1bf90a5e6fa37bc34570
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d651e7ecc6d7b45cdb15c6b5a7aef1bf90a5e6fa37bc34570

MISSOURI SENATE - NEWT STUMPS FOR AKIN: "Republican leaders have a 'moral obligation' to get fully behind Akin, Gingrich said," per Manu Raju. "He warned it would be 'historically irrational' to sit out a crucial race and that a 'monied establishment' should not lecture Missouri voters about a nominee who fairly won his primary battle. When Akin wins, Gingrich predicted, they would invite every 'idiot naysayer' in Washington to the victory party."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d83c80dd7034aebc1ff5c553cd754b8ded07995057e2f1968
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d83c80dd7034aebc1ff5c553cd754b8ded07995057e2f1968

MAINE SENATE - DEMOCRAT CALLS FOR TAX RETURNS: "Democrat Cynthia Dill on Monday challenged Republican Charlie Summers and independent Angus King to join her in releasing 10 years' worth of federal income tax returns to provide transparency," the AP reports. "Dill said her idea is for all three candidates to release their tax returns at the same time through a trusted third party...King's spokeswoman said he was at an out-of-state fundraiser and was unable to respond immediately to the request. But Summers immediately agreed to the release his tax returns." AP:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d1ae00dcfe91b7e1d0ab7b6ae4f293d5dcfc81f6bf8aa19f4
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d1ae00dcfe91b7e1d0ab7b6ae4f293d5dcfc81f6bf8aa19f4 . The Portland Press Herald reports on the King campaign altering a newspaper profile to remove unflattering quotes about him before posting it to their web site:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d72c3bbd38ae30e66bdb0c0bf3992c0a7735436e7c555a25f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d72c3bbd38ae30e66bdb0c0bf3992c0a7735436e7c555a25f .

NEW YORK HOUSE - NO EVIDENCE OF GRIMM BREAK-IN: "The break-in was discovered by staff members arriving at the office on Sunday morning, the campaign said. Mr. Grimm, a Republican who is seeking re-election in November to a second term, labeled it a 'politically motivated crime' and an 'assault on democracy,'" the New York Times reports. "But a law enforcement official said on Monday night that police experts had examined the campaign's computer systems and concluded that nothing had been erased or tampered with. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while windows at the headquarters had been shattered by pieces of a roadway barrier, there was no evidence that an
intruder had been in the office. 'At this point, there is no indication that it was anything other than an act of vandalism,' the official said."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d493decec643f1748169907be574fd488c2c54c534161e896
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d493decec643f1748169907be574fd488c2c54c534161e896

UTAH HOUSE - MIA LOVE MIGHT HAVE BEEN AN ANCHOR BABY: "Everywhere she goes, congressional candidate Mia Love tells the story of her parents, who fled persecution in Haiti, settled in the United States with $10 in their pockets and instilled in her a sense of self-reliance. But questions have surfaced about the narrative and how her parents and siblings gained their citizenship," today's Salt Lake Tribune reports. "In an interview in early 2011, Love said her parents were forced to leave her older siblings in Haiti when they moved to the United States. Under an immigration law that she said was due to expire in 1976, they would have to return. But she was born in December 1975, 25 days
before the law lapsed...On Monday, the liberal-leaning magazine Mother Jones questioned whether the story indicates that Love could be what is derisively referred to as an 'anchor baby,' born as a citizen of the United States and conveying citizenship to the parents - although in reality the process is far more complicated. A statement to The Salt Lake Tribune from the Love campaign Monday did not elaborate on the specifics of her parents' journey, and the campaign refused repeated efforts during the past month by The Tribune to arrange an interview with her parents to tell their story."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d62a8df4b2c2aad85083489681df8ea23c0cd7630f6e55b2e
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d62a8df4b2c2aad85083489681df8ea23c0cd7630f6e55b2e

CALIFORNIA HOUSE - SIERRA CLUB TARGETS LUNGREN: The Sierra Club will hit about 50,000 homes in Republican incumbent Dan Lungren's district with two mailers over the next week. They are part of a 'Toxic Money, Toxic Votes' campaign. Piece 1:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d61c444a9708f74d1bc04b9cd057a8e9d660f9f07d46be2de
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d61c444a9708f74d1bc04b9cd057a8e9d660f9f07d46be2de . Piece 2:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dcaa14ab7b6fcc024556516bb78e9bbbec5f498287d9a0143
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dcaa14ab7b6fcc024556516bb78e9bbbec5f498287d9a0143 .

MASSACHUSETTS HOUSE - TIERNEY RELENTS ON DEBATE CONDITIONS: Embattled Democratic incumbent "John Tierney declared [Monday] morning he'll take questions about his law-breaking family head-on when he debates Republican challenger Richard Tisei, beginning Thursday," the Boston Herald reports. "'I understand he's going to bring that up, it's all he's got,' the 61-year-old Salem Democrat told reporters ... outside the Marriott Hotel in Peabody, where Attorney General Martha Coakley and Essex District Attorney Jonathan Blodgett headlined a fundraiser for the 6th District incumbent. 'My recommendation is they bring it up first,' said Tierney, dismissing reports from Tisei's camp that he insisted
his in-laws' multimillion-dollar offshore gambling empire be kept off the table if he was going to participate."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dc4d1a7926a10b31133c84e5dbb7a5925e25e34ec09aec0e0
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dc4d1a7926a10b31133c84e5dbb7a5925e25e34ec09aec0e0

FLORIDA HOUSE - FITZGERALD ATTACKS BUCHANAN ON ETHICS: Democrat Keith Fitzgerald's first ad in a targeted district is an attack against incumbent Vern Buchanan. "Whatever the cost to Vern Buchanan's reputation, the rest of us pay the price when politicians like Buchanan rig the system and manipulate the tax code to benefit themselves," he says. "In the legislature I fought for Open Meetings, bills written in plain English and a ban on PAC Money. Now Congress should outlaw unlimited corporate spending on elections. And if anyone in Congress abuses their power to enrich themselves, it ought to be punishable by prison." The ad uses news clips that aired on TV before the Justice Department
ended a criminal probe into the Florida lawmaker earlier this month, which made Republicans much more confident about this race than at the start of the summer. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d2120fbea63cc2587b8c63b9c78888d38814354937acc3d2a
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d2120fbea63cc2587b8c63b9c78888d38814354937acc3d2a .

LIGHTER CLICKS -

CONAN spliced Romney's 60 Minutes interview to make him look bad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2df32056b7b017b8d265e8b58836ec6de680a71c541229f60f
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2df32056b7b017b8d265e8b58836ec6de680a71c541229f60f

TIM KAINE made Thai coconut chicken - and, separately, George Allen cooked apple crisp - on the Norfolk NBC affiliate yesterday:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d1f23fd3c6a0724b77b79b664a05526841a20bab6eb6f32de
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d1f23fd3c6a0724b77b79b664a05526841a20bab6eb6f32de .

BRISTOL PALIN did the cha-cha to Pink's "Blow Me (one last kiss)" on Dancing with the Star's last night:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d343b4839c9156d1cba4d42657ef5b57340e83dd4026f57dd
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d343b4839c9156d1cba4d42657ef5b57340e83dd4026f57dd .

DONALD TRUMP told students at Liberty University Monday to "get even" with adversaries. More on the unorthodox speech:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dc04a1c249027c9860c803d21b33559db4f003408226a4da3
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dc04a1c249027c9860c803d21b33559db4f003408226a4da3 .

THE MAKEUP ARTIST who prepped Romney for the Univision forum says he came in naturally tan:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d6509a665df6be1dbd901f708139bcf94d1c50900dda8eb20
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d6509a665df6be1dbd901f708139bcf94d1c50900dda8eb20 .

THE NEW YORKER channels Joe Biden's voice for a satirical first-person account of what it would be like if the VP was your waiter:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d40e17b17ba67beeff7b44e9db0bfa4c41e33c22850db9ab2
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2d40e17b17ba67beeff7b44e9db0bfa4c41e33c22850db9ab2 .

PAUL RYAN'S PLANE got a new curtain yesterday to separate the press from the candidate:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dc8fc690f8c213be8613c663649a900bac03e4ca0d08f2caf
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2dc8fc690f8c213be8613c663649a900bac03e4ca0d08f2caf .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'I told folks I'm just supposed to be eye candy here for you guys." - President Obama on "The View," whose five co-hosts are women
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2da381bb1aa153f8d49d093e3dae9858bd744ea5a3c810f6ae
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5990251f7491be2da381bb1aa153f8d49d093e3dae9858bd744ea5a3c810f6ae

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