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The Evening: Erdogan Visit, Middle East, Shakin’ and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Tuesday, May 16th.


** Erdogan Visits the White House
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President Trump sought to repair relations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey today at the White House. Erdogan is opposed to a U.S. plan to arm Kurdish fighters in Syria, as Bloomberg’s Margaret Talev reports (https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-16/trump-meets-erdogan-as-he-tries-calm-blowback-over-arming-kurds?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .

And as CNN’s Nicole Gaouette reports (http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/16/politics/trump-erdogan-visit/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) , despite Erdogan’s statement that he and Trump were “laying a foundation of a new era of relations between our two countries,” Turkey’s leader remains at odds with the administration over cleric Fethullah Gulen and the United States supplying arms to the Kurdish YPG group that’s helping Syrian rebels fight ISIS.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Melissa Dalton and Sam Brannen have a new commentary: “Turkey Is Not an Easy Ally, But It’s Not Time to Write it Off (https://www.csis.org/analysis/turkey-not-easy-ally-its-not-time-write-it/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .”

And, Brookings’ Kemal Kirişci has a commentary: “To Erdoğan and Trump: Don’t forget the Syrian refugees (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/05/14/to-erdogan-and-trump-dont-forget-the-syrian-refugees/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .”


** Cyber Attack
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The largest coordinated ransomware cyber attack in history has prompted calls for the NSA to share with companies what it knows about other vulnerabilities and raised questions about the agency’s ability to safeguard its stockpile of secret exploits, as CBS News’ Graham Kates reports (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/should-u-s-stockpile-web-vulnerabilities/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .

And as NPR’s Aarti Shanhani reports (http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/05/16/528555400/microsofts-president-reflects-on-cyberattack-helping-pirates-and-the-nsa?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) , Microsoft’s president, Brad Smith, is urging nuclear-like limits on cyber weapons.

Plus, the BBC reports (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-39940032?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) that the hunt is on for the cyber attackers who struck last week, and the first clues are emerging—but they are far from conclusive.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s James Andrew Lewis has a new commentary: “Darwin and Ransomware (https://www.csis.org/analysis/darwin-and-ransomware?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) ."


** Better Middle East Relations
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Arab Gulf states have offered to take concrete steps to establish better relations with Israel if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes a significant overture aimed at restarting the Middle East peace process, according to people briefed on the discussions, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Jay Solomon, Gordon Lubold, and Rory Jones report (https://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-states-offer-better-relations-if-israel-makes-new-bid-for-peace-1494893769?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: Read a transcript (https://www.csis.org/analysis/csis-press-briefing-president-trumps-trip-middle-east-and-europe/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) of yesterday’s CSIS briefing on President Trump’s trip to the Middle East and Europe.

And, see a new CFR expert brief by Paul Stares and Helia Ighani on “How Stable is Saudi Arabia? (https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/how-stable-saudi-arabia?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) ”

Note: Check out the refreshed CFR website (https://www.cfr.org/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) ; it’s terrific.


** In That Number
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** 12
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The number of square kilometers of territory that ISIS still controls in Mosul, according to Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Colonel John L. Dorrian. Source: Reuters’ Ahmed Rasheed (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKCN18C0VK?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** "My guess is that Erdogan swallowed what was really a very unpleasant development by the United States because he is determined to start off on the right foot with Trump.”
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—CSIS's Bulent Aliriza on President Trump's meeting with President Erdogan today on the heels of Trump's decision to arm the YPG. Source: Foreign Policy's Emily Tamkin (https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/16/in-joint-remarks-trump-and-erdogan-play-nice/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .


** iDeas Lab
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“Signals (http://beyondparallel.csis.org/signals/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) ” from Beyond Parallel tracks the possibility of North Korean provocations through Predata analytics. See the latest analysis and latest prediction from May 12 in “Peaking Possibilities of May North Korea WMD Activity (http://beyondparallel.csis.org/peaking-possibilities-of-may-north-korea-wmd-activity/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .”

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP/Getty Images.)
New U.S. ambassador to Israel David Friedman talks with Aerosmith’s lead singer Steven Tyler after the two met by coincidence following a visit to the Western Wall in Jerusalem yesterday.


** Recommended Reading
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Axios’ Dan Primack sat down with the cofounder of Mosaic and Netscape, Marc Andreessen (https://www.axios.com/marc-andreessen-tech-will-keep-healthcare-and-education-costs-high-2410023659.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) , who said “prices are spiraling out of control” in the health care and education sectors of the economy because of technology; productivity and tech innovation are not meeting expectations in the United States.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join CSIS’s Human Rights Initiative at 9:30 a.m. for “The Economic and Security Dimensions of Protecting LGBT Rights (https://www.csis.org/events/economic-and-security-dimensions-protecting-lgbt-rights?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .”

Join CSIS’s Freeman Chair in China Studies at 1:00 p.m. for a panel discussion on elite Chinese politics in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress (https://www.csis.org/events/road-19th-party-congress-elite-politics-china-under-xi-jinping?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .

And join the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program at 10:00 a.m. for “Strategic Competition in Southern Asia: Arms Race or Modernization? (https://www.stimson.org/content/strategic-competition-southern-asia-arms-race-or-modernization?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) ”


** On Demand
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Last week, CSIS hosted the first public event of the International Career Advancement Initiative, “New Voices in Foreign Affairs: 40 Under 40 Latinos in Foreign Policy (https://www.csis.org/events/new-voices-foreign-affairs-40-under-40-latinos-foreign-policy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .”


** Sounds
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On May 23, CSIS’s International Security Program will host an all-day conference on the state of U.S. civil-military relations. To set the stage, the International Security Program launched “Command Climate (https://www.csis.org/events/command-climate-state-us-civil-military-relations?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) ,” a mini-podcast series on the issues playing out in the civil-military dynamic.


** Smiles
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In addition to the music of Styx blasting through downtown Bethesda last Saturday night during the Walter Reed concert for military families, we were treated to some vintage Eddie Money.

Everyone knows Eddie Money. If you listened to the radio in the 1970s, 80s, 90s and into this century you have heard Money’s mega hits like “Two Tickets to Paradise,” “Baby Hold On,” and “Take Me Home Tonight.”

My favorite Eddie Money tune has always been “Shakin,’” from Money’s platinum selling album “No Control” released in ’82.

“Shakin’” is one of those songs my sister and I bounced along to in the back of our mom’s station wagon. I still love it. And when I heard “Shakin’” blasting through my neighborhood last weekend all I could do was smile and think of Eddie Money performances of old like this one (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib10L_pwqBY&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789) .
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=581965e45d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_05_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-581965e45d-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, and Jackie Ramsay.

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