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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Why do we cover elections at EconVue? Elections create policy. And
policy drives the economy. This has never been more true than today. In
the next week we will have elections in two major countries, France &
South Korea. The United States is still experiencing the aftershocks of
the 2016 election, and we will have a special report on the possible
repeal of Obamacare by David Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

in our next newsletter.

Once again we have faced a last minute election surprise, this time the
hacking of Emmanuel Macron's campaign. This story is too new and there
are too few details to analyze properly, but I interviewed EconVue
expert Albert Bressand

https://econvue.com/experts/albert-bressand

for his insights into the campaign, and the longer term consequences of
the French presidential election this Sunday. You can read the interview
here

https://econvue.com/panels/election-eve-france-interview-albert-bressand

and are welcome to register

https://econvue.com/user/register?destination=node/1223%23comment-form

and post your comments.

Finally, a word about the passing of an eminent, groundbreaking
economist who definitely deserved, but never received a Nobel Prize.
William Baumol's theory helps to explain why health care and education
costs have risen, while the cost of goods have decreased due to
manufacturing productivity.

https://www.vox.com/new-money/2017/5/4/15547364/baumol-cost-disease-explained

https://www.vox.com/new-money/2017/5/4/15547364/baumol-cost-disease-explained

His work will help us one day to unravel the productivity puzzle.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

French Election

Defeating Marine Le Pen won't be enough to save France

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/5/5/15550160/le-pen-macron-presidential-race-europe-center

Sheri Berman 5/5/2017 Vox

Saving Europe is not about a single election. It's about 2022, and the
upcoming German election. And Brexit.

The Trouble for France's Next President - Macron May Win But Will He
Govern?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/france/2017-05-04/trouble-frances-next-president?cid=soc-tw-rdr

Camille Pecastaing 5/4/2017 Foreign Affairs

If Macron wins, will his new party En Marche! gain control in
parliament? The Prime Minister may be a woman you've never heard of
before, not Le Pen.

The Future of Europe Hinges on a Face-Off in France

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/05/08/the-future-of-europe-hinges-on-a-face-off-in-france

Lauren Collins 5/2/2017 The New Yorker

Terrific background on the French election being held this Sunday.

Korean Peninsula

A Korean Election Nail-Biter

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-korean-election-nail-biter-1493939865

Wall Street Journal 5/5/2017

France is not the only country holding an election in the coming week.

Chinese state media hit back in unprecedented war of words with North
Korea

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2093002/chinese-state-media-hit-back-unprecedented-war-words?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

Shi Jiangtao & Catherine Wong 5/4/2017 South China Morning Post

Unprecedented: Chinese media hit back in war of words with North Korea

North Korea's Mysterious New Islands

http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/north-koreas-mysterious-new-islands/

Damen Cook 5/1/2017 the Diplomat

China isn't the only country with suspicious island construction sites.

Asia

Abe's New Vision for Japan's Constitution

http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/abes-new-vision-for-japans-constitution/

Yuki Tatsumi 5/5/2017 the Diplomat

Prime Minister Shintaro Abe has announced a 2020 deadline for changes to
Article 9 of the Japanese constitution regarding the role of its
military. This is at least in part a response to perceived or actual
unpredictability of US defense guarantees and has immense long term
implications for the region.

Who is shaping today's US-China relationship?

http://uschina50.foreignpolicy.com/

Tea Leaf Nation Stuff 5/3/2-17 Foreign Policy

Interesting choice for the list: Tsai Ing-wen, President of Taiwan

China leverage rising at 'alarming pace': central bank official

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN17X1BD

Reuters 5/1/2017

Credible source: the head of research at the People's Bank of China.

U.S.

Durbin's Debit-Card Price Controls Hit the Poor Hardest

https://www.wsj.com/articles/durbins-debit-card-price-controls-hit-the-poor-hardest-1493678835

Todd J. Zywicki and Julian Morris 5/1/2017 Wall Street Journal

Unintended consequences.

Dollar SuperCycle Ends

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/single-post/2017/05/03/Dollar-Super-Cycle-Ends

Christopher Whalen 5/3/2017 the Institutional Risk Analyst

This will happen as soon as the ECB begins to raise interest rates.

The Decline of Men Working: Why It Is Happening, What It Means, and What
to Do About It

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/furman20140502ppt.pdf

Jason Furman 5/2/2017 Peterson Institute for International Economics

This is true across the board, in a host of nations. Except Germany,
where workforce participation by prime age men actually increased. Why?

The on-demand economy is a bubble—and it's about to burst

https://qz.com/967474/the-on-demand-economy-is-a-bubble-and-its-about-to-burst/

Quartz Media 4/28/2017

I don't agree. The on-demand economy will morph, but it's here to stay
for millennials.

Here's why earnings are so outstanding even though the US economy is
barely growing

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/30/heres-why-earnings-are-so-outstanding-even-while-the-us-economy-is-barely-growing.html

Evelyn Chen 4/30/2017 CNBC

US firms with international revenues performed far better than firms
dependent on domestic demand.

Farm Loan Delinquency Rates Tick up, Report Shows

http://www.agriculture.com/news/business/farm-loan-delinquency-rates-tick-up-report-shows

David Widmar 4/24/2017 Agriculture.com

Farm loan delinquencies doubled from 2014-16 but are still below the
long run average.

40% of Americans spend up to half of their income servicing debt

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/40-of-americans-spend-half-of-their-income-servicing-debt-2017-04-27

Maria Lamagna 4/30/2017 MarketWatch

And we wonder why consumption is down.

EconVue Research

Data Round-Up: April 'Showers' of Jobs Underscores Solid Labor Market,
Likely June Rate Hike

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-april-showers-jobs-underscores-solid-labor-market-likely-june-rate

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

( Subscriber content)

April jobs ‘showers' erased any lingering March clouds . A June rate
hike, already widely expected, now looks certain in six weeks. Payroll
jobs rebounded in April in line with the consensus estimates, but the
report's tone was even better: job gains were up, workweek up, wages up.
Meanwhile, labor slack shrank below the Fed's best estimate.

News from India

https://econvue.com/pulse/news-india-lalcap-india-report

More rain!

Deepak Lalwani

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

An abstract of the report offered by our India economist Deepak Lalwani,
who says that this year's heavier than normal monsoons are good news
that will bring growth to India's economy. 51% of its population is
employed in agriculture versus 37% in China.

Data Plays

https://econvue.com/pulse/data-plays

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

After attending two FinTech conferences in Chicago last week, it is
clear that FinTech themes have shifted toward artificial intelligence
and machine learning, away from last year's primary focus on blockchain
and its potential.

40 Years in the Payment Reform Wilderness: DRGs to Nirvana - Part 1

https://econvue.com/pulse/40-years-payment-reform-wilderness-drgs-nirvana-part-1

David Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

The acceleration toward value-based care is exactly what healthcare is
experiencing today. What was a principal catalyst of this shift to
value-based care delivery? The redesign of the Medicare Advantage
program in 2003.

Our Experts in the Media

Robert Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

Trump's ‘Big' Plan Based on Big Debt, Claims Ex-Clinton Economic Adviser

http://observer.com/2017/05/trump-economic-tax-plan-debt-clinton-economic-advisor/

Observer 5/2/2017

President Trump's economic plan is unlikely to clear the many hurdles it
faces.

Saul Eslake

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

Home Ownership and Housing Affordability

http://www.saul-eslake.com/home-ownership-housing-affordability/#sthash.jo7JFcHv.dpbs

Pearls and Irritations 5/2/2017

The causes and effects of the housing affordability crisis (in
Australia), and what can and should be done about it.

With all best wishes,


Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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