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05/14/2018 07:54 AM EDT


By Nolan D. McCaskill (nmccaskill@politico.com or @NolanDMcCaskill)

HOUSE GOP SEES HOPE IN CALIFORNIA -- A once-endangered group of California Republicans is optimistic they can survive a Democratic wave this fall. The GOP incumbents believe they'll be buoyed by a referendum in November to repeal the state's gas tax, an issue they hope will prove to be a galvanizing force for the conservative base. "Democrats have their own issues, namely a crush of candidates in several primary races that threatens to split progressive votes," Rachael reports from Irvine, California. "At worst, that could keep a Democrat off the ballot under the state's 'jungle' primary system, in which the top two candidates from either party advance to the general election. At best, it's
likely to produce a more liberal general election candidate for Democrats in the center-right districts."

GOP leaders have prioritized California. The NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have opened offices statewide and are already deep into field work. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) visited the state this month to fundraise for Reps. Mimi Walters (R-Calif.), Jeff Denham (R-Calif.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), vulnerable incumbents who each represent districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016. "[T]he delegation as a whole -- whose GOP members out-ran Trump last election cycle -- has made it a point to raise and spend money early to define themselves before Democrats do." If they can turn out voters, Walters said, "game over." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bb1ae9663618fb40dc685f6ac76c7dad61eaa5d9d05d94daf50a9e8d18f22258149dcc8c8a4b427f5

Related: "Katie Porter Survived Domestic Abuse, Only To Have It Used Against Her In Her Campaign," from HuffPost's Laura Bassett: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b80f5f99bbfd62a35c69c08b819f00869c6f61916ef2cd695f15a9b73bc163ed0a3aa2f1e1b2bdb39

WILL RAND'S STAND LAST THIS TIME? -- Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a firm "no" on Gina Haspel's nomination to be CIA director. Then again, he was also a firm "no" on Mike Pompeo's nomination to be secretary of state -- until it was time to vote. Paul's Republican and Democratic colleagues believe he's likely to cave again after drawing attention ahead of another controversial vote in the narrowly divided Senate. "Aside from the palace intrigue, Paul's vote will provide more clues about his relationship with Trump, his onetime rival for the Republican presidential nomination, and might even determine whether Haspel can get through the Senate," Burgess reports.

"If Paul opposes the CIA pick, Haspel has little margin for error unless more Democrats besides Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana back her," Burgess notes. Paul told POLITICO last week that he can't be persuaded by the president to support a crucial nominee, but his colleagues are skeptical. "If a pair of undecided Republicans oppose Haspel as well, his opposition could prove pivotal, or at a minimum contribute to the narrowest confirmation of a CIA director in history, a notable blemish for a new intelligence chief." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bca13f46772e7fc822b0a429b0e831aa4b59c1d289934f4a50d09ccfdc0877c5c8bbc1d4c047ea338

Related Rand read: "Why Isn't Gina Haspel Coming Clean About Torture?" by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.): http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bc813c1b2fec1eb13de7dd3e2827a1c43e8dffe238d70264257b8a227a947a37e8734ab1f53092a03

** A message from the American Society of Anesthesiologists: 95 percent of physician anesthesiologists say dangerous shortages of injectable anesthetic drugs are affecting patient care, according to a 2018 ASA member survey. ASA is working with Congress, federal agencies and other stakeholders to combat this serious problem. Protect our patients. Learn more at: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bd148baa3de0ca5e70b964c9aa5f26a65ed1bc2bc3e9d9e9eb28e83fef61b2f7c41360def6d583447 **

DCCC IRKS LIBERALS AS DEMS EYE MIDTERM GAINS -- Many Democratic leaders see Clarke Tucker as the ideal candidate to field in GOP-leaning districts as they look to retake the House. Tucker supports Obamacare but not a single-payer system, has reservations about Nancy Pelosi as House speaker and doesn't attack the president by name. "But that strategy frustrates the party's liberal supporters, who feel the wind at the Democrats' back and worry about using it to crowd their House caucus with members who may feel inclined to buck the party leadership and stray from its policy agenda," The New York Times' Alan Blinder and Alexander Burns report.

"Though much of the Democratic energy nationally is coming from the party's left, Mr. Tucker appears to be running well ahead of a clutch of more liberal rivals in the May 22 primary for a seat in Central Arkansas," they write. But Democrats are irked by Tucker's support from the DCCC. "[N]ational Democrats have been embracing recruits near the political center, hoping they will give the party the chance to compete in states like Utah and Kansas," they add. "About a dozen crucial House races this fall are likely to feature Democratic nominees who are positioned markedly closer to the middle than the national party's activist base -- more than enough to determine control of the House." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567ba173b479159d88dc9094c5ea5e3237467fd201219a0ab5ed1772baea5a84357baddee727c0c7cb2a

Related: "Schumer Walks Tightrope to Aid Trump-State Democrats in 2018," by Bloomberg's Laura Litvan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b2b9410e511902b7f42e7ddc56ac5fdf2d60bfcb19244b69c26c0429aa87b83be06efb7123556271e

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FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: HuffPost's report on Arizona Senate candidate Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) pulling her support for an immigration bill was the winner.

RYAN TOUTS TRUMP AS AN ELECTION ASSET -- House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) predicts President Donald Trump will be an asset this fall in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Speaking at the Wisconsin Republican convention over the weekend, Ryan "rejected the suggestion that Republicans would suffer down the ballot because of any baggage for Trump associated with special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election or a lawsuit from porn star Stormy Daniels," the Capital Times' Jessie Opoien reports. Still, his remarks included a warning about a blue wave that could undo the president's accomplishments. More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bfba448cb4dd67ed598144167c14cbc507e6da52734d051297383e185a46e0e1fe4c60fb765009b85

Related: "Trump to huddle with Senate Republicans [this] week," via Burgess: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b5fcbde2b958c8d3fbacf0a7fb1e6f9a36cd5a3118c6fa7eb986b59928935b28fa409b52521df2a02 and "Trump records robocall for Barletta ahead of Pennsylvania Senate primary," per Alex Isenstadt: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b1dcc689a2c941d5f095b2472145c417d059e971e540457c96233243345a3201c8bab7ab117df00fc

PA TAKES CENTER STAGE IN BATTLE FOR HOUSE -- With redistricting, retirements and resignations, Democrats this November have a shot at gaining as many as five districts in Pennsylvania, a state the president won in 2016, which holds its primary Tuesday. "That's a significant chunk of the 23 seats Democrats must net to take back the House, and Republicans have already responded with plans to spend millions on TV ads in the fall," Elena Schneider reports from Allentown, Pennsylvania. "But the flip side to the turmoil has been an unusually raucous set of primaries... Those bruising contests -- including one in which the two of the three leading candidates claim the [DCCC] discouraged them from
running -- could yield weak or wounded candidates in the general election." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b438a30566ea2778a3fc3299997e53c3a3b290708cd676b453fc7cc121161734c075bffc20970adef

FREEDOM CAUCUS FACING TOUGH FIGHTS THIS FALL -- At least five of the roughly three dozen House Freedom Caucus members are facing competition for reelection this fall. "That's a smaller percentage than within the whole House GOP, but Democrats need to net just 23 seats to retake control, and they are fighting for them everywhere--even in the most conservative pockets where seats are usually the safest," The Wall Street Journal's Kristina Peterson reports. "And, unlike many of the more centrist Republicans who are accustomed to battling Democratic challengers, many of the most vulnerable Freedom Caucus members are running with less money in the bank and in districts where their deeply
conservative voting records might not be welcome."

Vulnerable members include Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Dave Brat (R-Va.), Tom Garrett (R-Va.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and Rod Blum (R-Iowa). Redistricting has made Perry's district less conservative, Brat and Garrett must overcome well-funded Democratic challengers in a state with shifting demographics, Budd is trying to up his name ID and Blum is defending his seat in a district the president won by just 4 points in 2016. "Every member of Congress, not just Freedom Caucus members, are trying to prepare more," Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said. "The best way to prepare is to deliver on the promises we made to the American people." More:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b916ddfa2eae477efa6c8f7cd0ade53e0b550fc6e03d701a60b051a66981aaa79c1f1c48e68b857f4

GOP COULD NOTCH BIPARTISAN WIN ON PRISON REFORM IN ELECTION YEAR -- Republican leaders must overcome a Senate blockade if they expect to push through bipartisan prison reform in the middle of an election year. "At issue is a long-simmering battle over modernizing the criminal justice system that has pit bipartisan coalitions in the House and Senate against each other," Elana and Heather report. "On one side are the White House, Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), most House Republicans and a group of House Democrats who are eager to reform the nation's crowded prisons. But serious pushback is coming from the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee chairman, Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), as
well as other House and Senate Democrats and powerful progressive activists."

The latter group doesn't want prison reform to advance without an overhaul of federal sentencing rules. A narrow prison reform bill that Jared Kushner helped craft could pass the House as soon as this month. "But even a significant bipartisan tally in the House is unlikely to make Grassley and his Democratic allies budge," they write. In an interview with POLITICO, Grassley framed his position as "a wonderful opportunity for the president to have a bipartisan victory" that he can sign. "And that's exactly what he needs for the midterm elections," Grassley added. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b47046db49fd31852e2e4d6302c51c827c4c0f9e4ac0dd47cc389e44bd28b2bfb2797d1fd50372317

TRUMP GIVES SENATE A FUNDING DEADLINE -- The president advised the Senate to pass a government spending package before August recess or stay in session, ostensibly moving up a Sept. 30 funding deadline. He also encouraged senators to stay to continue confirming his nominees. The chamber is set to take a month off from the first week of August to the first week of September, though more than a dozen Senate Republicans sent a letter to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) last week suggesting he cancel the recess.

Congress passed a $1.3 trillion omnibus in March that funds the government through the end of the fiscal year. The measure included $1.6 billion in border security funding. "But Trump has made clear he wants more money allocated, and he even floated the possibility at a rally last month that he might support a government shutdown in the fall if Congress does not provide what he believes to be adequate funding for border security," CNN's Clare Foran reports. "[T]he margin of Republican control of the Senate is narrower than in the House, making it potentially more challenging for Trump's priorities to win passage in the upper chamber." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b6008e39dedbe6ca3c332f172e8176bb6afaa80efb01e570876cc942c82cc4abcb91ef4b87ac102b7


STILL NO APOLOGY FROM THE WHITE HOUSE -- Kelly Sadler, the White House aide whose comment that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is "dying anyway" leaked last week, still hasn't publicly apologized despite telling the senator's daughter she would. "Sadler, a special assistant for surrogate communications, made the promise in an apologetic phone call to [Meghan] McCain," CNN's Jake Tapper and Clare Foran report. "During the phone call, McCain told Sadler she needed to apologize publicly, and the White House aide said she would, according to the source. As of Sunday, however, neither the White House nor Sadler has made a public apology." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567ba9f8b214ec1053546a9c0148c667b5941d3d06d8c8a3e8bfc5e52a1caa2b2c35a12a8d8a94a1c00c

Related reads: "Graham: White House staffer's McCain joke 'inappropriate,'" by Brent D. Griffiths: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567b7697ccd6c30591097c34dfda0983559d8f2d57bee258a6c00b84f65d262408a24a4f70da198c326a and "Inside the room: White House flare-up over McCain leak," from Axios' Jonathan Swan: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bea9f9a536a03749839fb2325a825d160814802e1f609cec651d4a327bce016c64f09eadbfc0897d4

TRANSITIONS -- Erich Hartman starts today on the Senate Budget Committee GOP staff, where he will be a budget analyst handling income security programs. He was previously a policy analyst at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The Senate meets at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of judicial nominee Michael Scudder. At 5:30 p.m., the chamber will hold votes on the confirmations of Scudder and judicial nominee Amy St. Eve. The House is out.

AROUND THE HILL --Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will host a discussion on the aftermath of Trump's decision on the Iran nuclear deal at 7 p.m. in the CVC-Auditorium.

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Zachary Marshall was first to correctly guess that Claude Pepper of Florida was the last lawmaker to leave the Senate and serve in the House. He was in the Senate from 1936 to 1951 and in the House from 1963 until his death in 1989.

TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Zachary: Who is the most recent candidate to posthumously win a House or Senate election, and what year did this take place? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: nmccaskill@politico.com.

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** A message from the American Society of Anesthesiologists: A critical shortage of injectable anesthetic drugs is affecting anesthesiology practices across the country, leading to decreased quality of care - and more patients in pain. A 2018 survey of ASA members found that 98% regularly experience drug shortages at their institutions and 95% said the shortages impact the way they treat their patients. ASA is working with federal agencies, Congress and other stakeholders to develop solutions to combat this serious problem. Protect our patients. Learn more at: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=56666ad16b43567bd148baa3de0ca5e70b964c9aa5f26a65ed1bc2bc3e9d9e9eb28e83fef61b2f7c41360def6d583447 **

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