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By Elena Schneider | 11/09/2016 10:00 AM EDT


The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP - "Trump pulls off biggest upset in U.S. history," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher and Ben Schreckinger: "Donald Trump is going to be the next president of the United States. The billionaire businessman who never before held elected office shocked America and the world, defeating Hillary Clinton in an extraordinary rebuke to the nation's political class after an ugly and divisive race that will go down as the most stunning upset in American history. Trump did so decisively, stomping across the electoral map with wins in the four biggest battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. He defied the polls and pundits after a scorched-earth campaign
against Clinton, the Republican establishment, and basic decorum, toppling the blue wall of states that Clinton had supposedly constructed to keep the White House in Democratic hands." Full story.

MARKETS DROP - "Stocks plunge at prospect of Trump presidency," by POLITICO's Ben White: "Stock futures crashed on Tuesday night and the Mexican peso plunged by the most in two decades as Donald Trump's odds of becoming president soared, sending shockwaves around the world." Full story.

- House Speaker Paul Ryan in a statement ... "It marks a repudiation of the status quo of failed liberal progressive policies. We are eager to work hand-in-hand with the new administration to advance an agenda to improve the lives of the American people."

- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in a statement ... "After eight years of the Obama administration, the American people have chosen a new direction for our nation. President-elect Trump has a significant opportunity to bring our nation together."

- Breitbart headline: YOU-S-A, SHOCK - AND AWESOME: MOVEMENT OF ORDINARY AMERICANS STUN GLOBAL ELITE

- "Inside Trump's stunning upset victory," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, Eli Stokols, Shane Goldmacher and Kenneth P. Vogel: "And yet, he won. But not because this celebrity businessman and his team managed to eke some functionality out of the chaos. Indeed it looked like a train wreck because it was. No, Donald Trump is now president-elect because his relentless, sometimes manic salesman's pitch was able to pluck a string with Americans that no poll really managed to capture: The perpetual belief that a new character with a new story could deliver them something nobody else could, whether a trade victory over China, or a wall against Mexicans, or a return to a vision of America that seemed
to be vanishing for good. And the more he cut loose, the more the media covered him, and the more people he reached. To be sure, many Republicans held their noses, and Hillary Clinton made it much easier to hold them and vote for Trump. She just couldn't stay ahead of the taint of her long association with Washington power, and the whiff of scandal that has long trailed her. ... No, Donald Trump is now president-elect because Hillary Clinton failed - an opinion not just being spouted by Democrats and left-leaning pundits unwilling to believe America would elect a man who insulted nearly every demographic group in the country en route to Election Day. It's an opinion that Republicans, eyes
now wide with shock, say is true." Full story.

NO (MODELING) SAW IT COMING - "RNC model showed Trump losing," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel: "...The RNC's sophisticated predictive modeling had Trump losing in the campaign's last stretch, all the way until the Friday afternoon before the election, according to an embargoed briefing the RNC delivered to reporters at the party's Capitol Hill headquarters on Friday afternoon." Full story.

BROOKLYN HQ - "Inside the loss Clinton saw coming," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Here it was. Again. More emails, pretty much the only thing her campaign was about from before it even started. And for Clinton, who sees her life as the story of battling back unhinged and unfair partisan attacks, the latest round of Them against Us. Everything that Democrats and pretty much anyone else thought they understood about politics was proven wrong this year, with a resounding exclamation mark Tuesday night. All along this looked like a hard fight, but never a fight that she seemed to be losing, even on the darkest days on a campaign that never quite felt like it was winning, either. Democrats
and many others are now in crisis, wrapping their minds around the reality of a President Donald Trump. But the crisis is sharpest in Clinton campaign headquarters: not only do they feel like everything is about to go deeply, collapse-of-America wrong, but it's going to happen because she failed, and they failed her."

- "Clinton and her operatives went into the race predicting her biggest problems would be inevitability and her age, trying to succeed a two-term president of her own party. But the mood of the country surprised them. They recognized that Sanders and Trump had correctly defined the problem - addressing anger about a rigged economy and government - and that Clinton already never authentically could. Worse still, her continuing email saga and extended revelations about the Clinton Foundation connections made any anti-establishment strategy completely impossible. So instead of answering the question of how Clinton represented change, they tried to change the question to temperament, what kind
of change people wanted, what kind of America they wanted to live in. It wasn't enough." Full story.

HOW IT HAPPENED IN THE HOUSE - "House Republicans likely to limit losses to single digits," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "House Republicans appear likely to limit Democratic gains to the single digits, a far better outcome than they were predicting just weeks ago, and one that give the GOP a bigger majority than it had after the 2012 elections. Democrats have poured millions into defeating Republicans in affluent, well-educated suburban seats where they expected Donald Trump to do poorly. But many of these House Republicans have won their races surprisingly easily as Trump has outperformed expectations himself. GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, who was considered one of the most
endangered Republicans in the chamber, beat his Democratic challenger by 12 points. GOP Rep. Mike Coffman, who represents a moderate district in the Denver suburbs that's 20 percent Hispanic, also held on. So did Reps. Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Erik Paulsen of Minnesota and John Katko of New York." Full story.

- "How Republicans held the House," by POLITICO's Theodoric Meyer and Rachael Bade: "In mid-October, Mike Shields, the president of House Republicans' biggest super PAC, gathered his top advisers to discuss a worrying round of poll results in battleground districts - and how to protect GOP members of Congress from a floundering Donald Trump. For the first time all year, Republican polls showed their House candidates sinking as Trump's numbers declined rapidly, following a lackluster first presidential debate, a feud with a beauty queen, and worst of all, the release of a decade-old tape in which Trump described sexually assaulting women. Shields and his advisers drew up plans to inject $10
million into second-tier House battlegrounds, to keep them from becoming casualties of Trump's unpopularity. But in the end, Trump appears to have lifted congressional Republicans with him in many places - and along with his stronger performance, backlash against Trump's Republican ticket-mates did not emerge in critical mass. Trump's shocking presidential win ultimately helped limit Republican losses to the single digits and preserve a majority that, while not quite as hefty as this year's, will still be quite large by historical standards. House Republicans expected to be buoyed by record-breaking fundraising from Speaker Paul Ryan and an emphasis on hyper-local strategy. But combined
with the lift from Trump's unexpected win, it was about as good of a night as the House GOP could have imagined." Full story.

GOP GAINS THREE IN GOVERNOR'S RACES - Republicans hold the most number of governorships since 1922, despite an aggressive financial push from Democrats to cut into their majority. The GOP took over with wins in Missouri (Eric Greitens), Vermont (Phil Scott) and New Hampshire (Chris Sununu). The Associated Press still hasn't called the race in North Carolina, but Democrat Roy Cooper leads GOP Gov. Pat McCrory by 4,772 votes. State law allows McCrory to call for a hand recount, but he hasn't made a statement on the race yet. Democrats held on to their incumbent governors: Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana, Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington and Gov. Kate Brown of Oregon.

Days until the 2017 election: 363.

Days until the 2018 election: 727.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet about campaigns and nothing else:
@politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

POLITICO'S TRANSITION TRACKER: With the election over, POLITICO has you covered with the latest breaking news in the transition of power in Washington. Stay on top of the latest in personnel hires, appointments and announcements specific to the new administration by signing up for our new mobile product available for iPhone users via Apple Wallet. Download the pass here.

POLITICO PRO PRESENTS - PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION ROADMAP: THE DEFINITIVE GUIDE. As power shifts in Washington, you need to stay a step ahead of the changing landscape. Pro's Definitive Guide includes information about the who, what, when, where and why of the presidential transition. Get Pro's Presidential Transition Roadmap: The Definitive Guide.

MEET THE MEMBERS - Profiles of all newly elected Senate and House members: Read profiles of every newly elected member of Congress here from the Campaign Pro team. The profiles include biographical information, career history, and more about the candidates who won on Nov. 8. See the profiles here.

100 DAYS - "Can Trump actually govern?" by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "It didn't matter to Donald Trump's supporters that he offered voters few specifics on policy. It didn't matter to them that, in building out his campaign, he seemed to value flattery and loyalty over experience. It didn't matter, to many at least, that he insulted his rivals, objectified women, mocked the disabled and encouraged violence at his rallies. Now it matters to the United States and the world. Exit polls revealed 61 percent of Americans don't believe Trump is ready to be president. And yet, what much of the country thought was unthinkable is now all the country is thinking about: Donald Trump will soon be sitting
behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. ... Perhaps more than with any president-elect in recent memory, there is deep uncertainty about what happens next - with what Trump's cabinet, his legislative agenda and, over time, his country will look like. How, many wonder, will an emotionally volatile demagogue unify a divided country and form a governing coalition to lead the world's largest democracy? Perhaps most immediately, how will he move to calm the financial markets after a massive sell-off Tuesday night deepened as his electoral chances improved?" Full story.

- And over in Congress ... "Republican glory days return to Capitol Hill," by POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Burgess Everett: "It's 2009 all over again. Except this time Republicans are in charge and Democrats have been run over. ... Tuesday's astonishing victory means everything's on the table for Republicans: Tilting the Supreme Court in a conservative direction for years to come, repealing Obamacare, overhauling the tax code, boosting defense spending, tearing up trade deals and cutting regulations." Full story.

SERVED FRESH, THE HOT TAKES - "5 takeaways from an unthinkable night," by POLITICO's Glenn Thrush: "Can he do anything to calm a divided, terrified country? Will he try? ... Hillary Clinton is a footnote in history ... the Clinton campaign got their numbers wrong ... James Comey is Public Enemy Number One (To Democrats)." Full story.

- "How did everyone get it so wrong?" by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Alex Isenstadt: "Everybody was wrong. Again. When Election Day dawned, almost all the pollsters, analytics nerds and political insiders in the country had Hillary Clinton waltzing into the White House. By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections had been left in shambles - just like the ones a year ago that all-but ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party's presidential nomination. Headed into Election Day, polling evangelist Nate Silver's 538 website put Clinton's odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight, the site had more than
flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent chance of winning." Full story.

STILL IN SHOCK - "Democrats say 'We ran into an unstoppable wave,'" by POLITICO's Darren Samuelsohn: "Democrats had looked forward to a smooth handoff of power from a successful two-term president to a successor of his own party - with a Democratic-led Senate to ease the way. What they got was an existential shock. In interviews Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, while Clinton's path to victory narrowed to the point of near-nothing, Democratic leaders said they were at a loss for how to accept what comes next. 'I'm more sick than I am shocked,' former Wisconsin Democratic Rep. Dave Obey told POLITICO. 'It's amazing to me that for the next four years this country is going to be led by
a man who has been the most destructive to the process than any man I've seen since Joe McCarthy.'" Full story.

NEVER TRUMPERS - "Anti-Trump Republicans wake up to new world," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "There was resignation and grief, anger and cautious optimism. But for the most part, there was abject shock among the significant segment of the GOP that had been wary of Donald Trump, as state after state landed in his column Tuesday night - followed quickly by the realization that win or lose, this is now Trump's Republican Party. 'Shocked, actually,' said Peter Wehner, a veteran of the Bush White House and a vocal Trump opponent, when asked for reaction to the fact that Trump was in striking distance of the presidency early Wednesday morning. 'Like most Americans. And like most Trump supporters.
'This is a gigantic event in the history of American politics,' he added." Full story.

PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS BY BATTLEGROUND STATE, per AP as of 6 a.m.:

Trump wins:

Pennsylvania - Trump: 48%. Clinton: 47.7%.

North Carolina - Trump: 50.5%. Clinton: 46.7%.

Florida - Trump: 49.1%. Clinton: 47.7%.

Ohio - Trump: 52.1%. Clinton: 43.5%.

Indiana - Trump: 57.2%. Clinton: 37.9%.

Iowa - Trump: 51.7%. Clinton: 42.3%.

Wisconsin - Trump: 47.9%. Clinton: 47%.

Clinton wins:

Colorado - Clinton: 47.3%. Trump: 44.8%.

Virginia - Clinton: 49.7%. Trump: 45%.

Nevada - Clinton: 47.9%. Trump: 45.5%.

Uncalled:

New Hampshire & Michigan

SENATE RESULTS IN BATTLEGROUND STATES, per AP as of 6 a.m.:

Republican Wins:

North Carolina - Sen. Richard Burr: 51.1%. Democrat Deborah Ross: 45.3%. Full story.

Pennsylvania - Sen. Pat Toomey: 48.9%. Democrat Katie McGinty: 47.2%. Full story.

Florida - Sen. Marco Rubio: 52.1%. Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy: 44.2%.

Missouri - Sen. Roy Blunt: 49.4%. Democrat Jason Kander: 46.2%. Full story.

Wisconsin - Sen. Ron Johnson: 50.2%. Democrat Russ Feingold: 46.9%. Full story.

Democratic Wins:

Illinois - Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth: 54.4%. Sen. Mark Kirk: 40.2%.

Nevada - Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto: 47.1%. Republican Rep. Joe Heck: 44.7%. Full story.

Colorado - Sen. Michael Bennet: 49.2%. Republican Darryl Glenn: 45.7%.

Uncalled: New Hampshire

KEY HOUSE RESULTS, per AP as of 6 a.m.:

AZ-01 - RACE CALLED for Tom O'Halleran (D) 96987 (49.7%), Paul Babeu (R) 87109 (44.7%). Precincts reporting: 88.5%

AZ-02 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Martha McSally (R) 145267 (56.5%), Matt Heinz (D) 111846 (43.5%). Precincts reporting: 83.5%

CA-07 - Rep. Ami Bera (D) 73532 (52.1%), Scott Jones (R) 67621 (47.9%). Precincts reporting: 85.2%

CA-10 - Rep. Jeff Denham (R) 75051 (52.6%), Michael Eggman (D) 67545 (47.4%). Precincts reporting: 78.4%

CA-21 - RACE CALLED for Rep. David Valadao (R) 40786 (59.0%), Emilio Huerta (D) 28309 (41.0%). Precincts reporting: 84.0%

CA-24 - RACE CALLED for Salud Carbajal (D) 114270 (53.8%), Justin Fareed (R) 98214 (46.2%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

CA-25 - Rep. Steve Knight (R) 64327 (54.2%), Bryan Caforio (D) 54379 (45.8%). Precincts reporting: 66.2%

CA-49 - Rep. Darrell Issa (R) 70265 (52.4%), Doug Applegate (D) 63786 (47.6%). Precincts reporting: 99.0%

CA-52 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Scott Peters (D) 74854 (57.0%), Denise Gitsham (R) 56537 (43.0%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

CO-03 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Scott Tipton (R) 177802 (54.4%), Gail Schwartz (D) 133076 (40.8%). Precincts reporting: 80.4%

CO-06 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Mike Coffman (R) 162208 (51.5%), Morgan Carroll (D) 133963 (42.6%). Precincts reporting: 80.6%

FL-07 - RACE CALLED for Stephanie Murphy (D) 181021 (51.4%), Rep. John Mica (R) 170945 (48.6%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

FL-13 - RACE CALLED for Charlie Crist (D) 184371 (51.9%), Rep. David Jolly (R) 170964 (48.1%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

FL-18 - RACE CALLED for Brian Mast (R) 199522 (53.7%), Randy Perkins (D) 159752 (43.0%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

FL-26 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) 148410 (53.0%), Joe Garcia (D) 115289 (41.1%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

IA-01 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Rod Blum (R) 205615 (53.9%), Monica Vernon (D) 175977 (46.1%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

IA-03 - RACE CALLED for Rep. David Young (R) 208240 (53.5%), Jim Mowrer (D) 154754 (39.8%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

IL-10 - RACE CALLED for Brad Schneider (D) 147299 (52.5%), Rep. Robert Dold (R) 133383 (47.5%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

IL-12 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Mike Bost (R) 167957 (54.4%), C.J. Baricevic (D) 122093 (39.6%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

IN-09 - RACE CALLED for Trey Hollingsworth (R) 169414 (54.3%), Shelli Yoder (D) 125355 (40.2%). Precincts reporting: 99.5%

KS-03 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) 132467 (50.3%), Jay Sidie (D) 111260 (42.3%). Precincts reporting: 47.0%

MD-06 - RACE CALLED for Rep. John Delaney (D) 167229 (55.4%), Amie Hoeber (R) 123611 (40.9%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

ME-02 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) 172229 (54.7%), Emily Cain (D) 142658 (45.3%). Precincts reporting: 87.5%

MI-01 - RACE CALLED for Jack Bergman (R) 197711 (55.4%), Lon Johnson (D) 141008 (39.5%). Precincts reporting: 99.4%

MI-07 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Tim Walberg (R) 177366 (55.2%), Gretchen Driskell (D) 127755 (39.8%). Precincts reporting: 96.5%

MI-08 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Mike Bishop (R) 203827 (56.0%), Suzanna Shkreli (D) 142333 (39.1%). Precincts reporting: 99.0%

MI-11 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Dave Trott (R) 198433 (52.9%), Anil Kumar (D) 150431 (40.1%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

MN-01 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Tim Walz (D) 169006 (50.4%), Jim Hagedorn (R) 166518 (49.6%). Precincts reporting: 99.9%

MN-02 - RACE CALLED for Jason Lewis (R) 144134 (48.5%), Angie Craig (D) 129253 (43.5%). Precincts reporting: 86.3%

MN-03 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) 223076 (56.9%), Terri Bonoff (D) 169237 (43.1%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

MN-07 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 171264 (52.4%), Dave Hughes (R) 155389 (47.6%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

MN-08 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Rick Nolan (D) 178893 (50.3%), Stewart Mills (R) 176821 (49.7%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

MT-01 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) 245922 (57.9%), Denise Juneau (D) 165547 (39.0%). Precincts reporting: 91.7%

NE-02 - Don Bacon (R) 107426 (49.2%), Rep. Brad Ashford (D) 104267 (47.7%). Precincts reporting: 70.7%

NH-01 - RACE CALLED for Carol Shea-Porter (D) 158011 (44.3%), Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 152855 (42.8%). Precincts reporting: 95.6%

NH-02 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Ann Kuster (D) 157164 (49.5%), Jim Lawrence (R) 145219 (45.7%). Precincts reporting: 91.4%

NJ-02 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 166145 (59.5%), David Cole (D) 103438 (37.0%). Precincts reporting: 99.6%

NJ-05 - RACE CALLED for Joshua Gottheimer (D) 156628 (50.5%), Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 146428 (47.2%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NV-03 - RACE CALLED for Jacky Rosen (D) 146653 (47.2%), Danny Tarkanian (R) 142726 (46.0%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NV-04 - RACE CALLED for Ruben Kihuen (D) 128680 (48.5%), Rep. Cresent Hardy (R) 118220 (44.5%). Precincts reporting: 99.8%

NY-01 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) 174682 (59.0%), Anna Throne-Holst (D) 121640 (41.0%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NY-03 - RACE CALLED for Thomas Suozzi (D) 156315 (52.4%), Jack Martins (R) 142023 (47.6%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NY-19 - RACE CALLED for John Faso (R) 152681 (54.7%), Zephyr Teachout (D) 126508 (45.3%). Precincts reporting: 99.2%

NY-21 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) 164792 (66.1%), Mike Derrick (D) 73024 (29.3%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NY-22 - RACE CALLED for Claudia Tenney (R) 120777 (47.0%), Kim Myers (D) 103955 (40.4%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NY-23 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Thomas Reed (R) 149439 (58.0%), John Plumb (D) 108163 (42.0%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

NY-24 - RACE CALLED for Rep. John Katko (R) 169418 (61.0%), Colleen Deacon (D) 108485 (39.0%). Precincts reporting: 99.2%

PA-08 - RACE CALLED for Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 206607 (54.5%), Steve Santarsiero (D) 172571 (45.5%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

PA-09 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Bill Shuster (R) 183798 (63.4%), Art Halvorson (D) 105958 (36.6%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

PA-16 - RACE CALLED for Lloyd Smucker (R) 167698 (53.9%), Christina Hartman (D) 132969 (42.7%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

TX-23 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Will Hurd (R) 109751 (48.5%), Pete Gallego (D) 105927 (46.8%). Precincts reporting: 99.1%

UT-04 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Mia Love (R) 92521 (52.7%), Doug Owens (D) 74880 (42.6%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

VA-05 - RACE CALLED for Tom Garrett (R) 206572 (58.3%), Jane Dittmar (D) 147655 (41.7%). Precincts reporting: 99.7%

VA-10 - RACE CALLED for Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) 203995 (52.8%), LuAnn Bennett (D) 181999 (47.2%). Precincts reporting: 99.5%

WI-08 - RACE CALLED for Mike Gallagher (R) 227732 (62.7%), Tom Nelson (D) 135648 (37.3%). Precincts reporting: 100.0%

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people." - President-elect Donald Trump in his acceptance speech.

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