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Dear R. Hunter,

Keeping up with global political events has been a fascinating
challenge, with lots of ups and downs. However, in terms of the real
economy, not much is really happening—sentiment has gotten ahead of hard
data.

As my daughter Harmony was editing our April report, she said this
reminded her of Willy Wonka's elevator: not only does it go up and down,
it can also go sideways. And that is precisely where much of the world's
economy is headed right now, absent any exogenous shocks.

We are transitioning away from the post-Financial Crisis era, away from
globalism to populism. There are many theories as to why this is
happening. I am sure that I will hear many of them when I attend the
World Bank/IMF meetings in Washington next week. The key issues I am
watching:

Continued unprecedented gridlock in Congress and the Washington
bureaucracy, and a possible change of control in the 2018 Congressional
elections

Missequencing of reforms, including taxes, regulation, health care, and
infrastructure could mean nothing gets done in 2017

US-China relations go sideways

Interest rates and the US dollar stabilize, contrary to forecasts-- I
can't remember another time when a US president commented on the
direction of either so explicitly

Kevin Hassett is Trump's economic advisor to watch, and a possible Fed
appointment next year

Equity markets slowly take back unwarranted appreciation

Politics trumps economics for the time being, with geopolitical risks
and uncertainties rising as populism becomes a force worldwide. The
recent United Airlines debacle is an example of what populism, enabled
by social media, can accomplish for good or ill.

Our monthly report which discusses these and other issues is attached.
As always, we appreciate your comments and suggestions. And by the way,
here is the clip from Willy Wonka's elevator ride:
https://youtu.be/ysv5XtiZwaQ

https://youtu.be/ysv5XtiZwaQ

Have a wonderful holiday weekend.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

Follow me on Twitter
https://twitter.com/lyrichues?lang=en

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