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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


HOURS AWAY - KICKOFF IN MHT: Five likely Republican presidential contenders will appear tonight at an Americans for Prosperity forum in Manchester, N.H. - the first major multi-candidate event in nearly two months. The event, billed as a "Presidential Summit on Spending and Job Creation," is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's first early-state appearance with other 2012-ers and his first major public speech since unveiling his exploratory committee. The schedule, per an AFP official: 7 p.m. - Dinner honoring former Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne as "Conservative of the Year," featuring South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint; 8 p.m. - Candidate forum begins, with 2012-ers speaking in this order: Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann. The speaking format - Each contender will get to offer eight minutes of opening remarks, followed by a question-and-answer session with AFP Foundation president Tim Phillips. More on the Lamontagne part of the evening from POLITICO's Kasie Hunt: http://politi.co/lsTmHf


BREAKING OVERNIGHT - NOT OBAMA COUNTRY: President Obama's approval rating in the first-in-the-nation primary state has dropped to 44 percent, with 52 percent of voters there disapproving of his job performance. Only a third of respondents in a new WMUR/UNH poll said they felt the country is on the right track. More from WMUR: "In matchups against potential Republican presidential candidates, the polls shows Obama would lose to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The poll shows Romney beating Obama 50 to 43 percent. Smith said the result shows Obama losing steam with a particular group of voters. 'He's in danger of losing those independents,' [UNH pollster Andy] Smith said. 'They've been sliding away over the last year because of health care and the continuing weakness in the economy.' When pitted against former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Obama comes out on top, 45 to 38 percent. But Smith said again the numbers signal trouble for the incumbent." http://bit.ly/jhrdhW


AND THIS MORNING - 'ENRON-STYLE ACCOUNTING' - Due out from the New Hampshire Democratic Party: "Today the New Hampshire Democratic Party filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against Mitt Romney's presidential campaign committee, raising questions about his campaign's circumvention of campaign finance laws. The complaint details how Mitt Romney's presidential campaign may be funneling 'soft money' (unlimited and corporate contributions) through his state political action committees (PACs) to his federal presidential campaign, circumventing federal campaign contribution limits." The complaint - the latest in a series of potshots taken by New Hampshire Dems at the GOP field - is here: http://scr.bi/mNeDFl


As Rand Paul comes out swinging, the Fox debate hits another snag and Chris Chocola picks a new target, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


TODAY - OBAMA GOES SOUTH - From the White House guidance: "[T]he First Family will travel to Alabama. The departure from the South Lawn and the arrival at Tuscaloosa Regional Airport are open press. In Alabama, the President and the First Lady will view the damage as well as meet with Governor Bentley, state and local officials and families affected by the storms ... After, the First Family will travel to Cape Canaveral, Florida ... The First Family will then view the launch of the space shuttle Endeavour ... The President will then travel to Miami, Florida. In Miami, the President will deliver the Miami Dade College commencement address."


DANIELS WATCH - THE UNDECIDER: Indiana's governor hasn't made up his mind whether to sign a bill defunding Planned Parenthood in the state. Nor is he ready to announce his plans for the 2012 presidential cycle. The Indianapolis Star had both stories. Exhibit A: "Daniels has said that he would announce his decision after the legislature concluded its session [Friday]. But Daniels told The Indianapolis Star that 'it absolutely won't be (announced this weekend) because you can't announce a decision you haven't made.' He said he will now take some time to reflect on his decision, and while he won't keep people waiting long, he won't rush it. But, he added, 'the time to work on it is here.'" Exhibit B: "Daniels said [Thursday] morning he does not know yet if he will sign House Bill 1210, which makes Indiana's abortion restrictions among the tightest in the nation while also defunding Planned Parenthood. 'I haven't decided yet,' Daniels said. The defunding of Planned Parenthood 'has been attached to a bill I strongly supported ... But we've got a little research to do.'" http://bit.ly/itIWWk and http://bit.ly/lirq9X


2012 TALKER - "George Soros considers his options" - POLITICO's Ken Vogel reports on the Democratic megadonor's opaque plans for next cycle: "Political operatives from across the ideological spectrum have become increasingly fixated on the question of whether the Hungarian-born billionaire investor will once again reprise the role he played in the 2004 election, when he contributed more than $20 million to Democratic causes, or whether he will continue to focus his domestic philanthropy elsewhere. ... 'Since I don't know what I'm going to do, I can't tell you,' he told POLITICO. Last October, Soros suggested he may be permanently shifting his giving away from electoral groups like those he supported in 2004, characterizing his involvement that year as 'an exception.' But Democratic political professionals have been buzzing about the implicit blessing bestowed this month by the Democracy Alliance, a Soros-linked donor network, on a coalition that hopes to spend tens of millions of dollars boosting President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats in 2012 - though [adviser Michael] Vachon suggested it's unlikely Soros will come close to matching his 2004 investment." http://politi.co/jaX1vg


RAND IN N.H. - FEISTY! He may not be running for president, but Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul still zinged Donald Trump and vowed to make Mitt Romney's health care record an issue in 2012 during a Thursday visit to the Granite State. The Boston Globe: "'I've come to New Hampshire today because I'm very concerned,' Paul said. 'I want to see the original long-form certificate, with embossed seal, of Donald Trump's Republican registration.' 'Seriously don't you think we need to see that?' he said, adding that Trump had donated to Democrats such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid." And the Union Leader: "In an interview, Paul, an eye surgeon by profession and staunch conservative by ideology, said government-mandated programs health care programs are 'an anathema' to basic constitutional principles. 'Romneycare,' Paul said, 'was such a bad model for 'Obamacare.' ... Paul said it will be an albatross for Romney during the nomination campaign 'if I have anything to say about it' ... 'It's a horrific piece of legislation that presaged what we got from 'Obamacare,' Paul said." http://bo.st/kD06GI and http://bit.ly/mC7Snk


STAY TUNED - NEWT'S MOMENT COMETH: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich hinted in a visit to Philadelphia that his formal 2012 announcement could come next week, before the first Republican primary debate in South Carolina. The Inquirer's Tom Fitzgerald: "Gingrich called on the nation to 'renew the spirit of Philadelphia' Thursday during a luncheon appearance at the Union League in Center City, later telling reporters to scrutinize social media next week for word of his presidential intentions. 'I would just say to folks who are really curious: watch Facebook and Twitter in the next week,' Gingrich said after the event. 'I think you'll have all the information you need.'" http://bit.ly/kiDYOi


AND YET - COLD WATER: Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler is tamping down expectations that his boss will participate in the South Carolina debate six days from now, citing "business entanglements" to Beth Reinhard: "It's becoming increasingly clear that we're not going to make the deadline ... We had always planned to be in the debate and want to be in the debate, but I don't think we will." http://bit.ly/iXmI1C


POLL OF THE DAY - TEA PARTY BLEEDS - More Americans than ever have negative views of the tea party and the diffuse political movement's favorability ratings are 14 points underwater, according to Gallup. Frank Newport analyzes: "About half of Americans, 47%, now have an unfavorable image of the Tea Party movement, the highest since it emerged on the national scene ... Americans who approve of the job President Obama is doing tilt strongly negative toward the Tea Party. Those who view possible Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump favorably are substantially more positive about the Tea Party than those who view him unfavorably ... A little more than half of Republicans, 54%, say they are supporters of the Tea Party movement. This is considerably higher than the 29% of independents and 8% of Democrats who are Tea Party supporters." http://bit.ly/irMFLK


WARNING SHOT - CLUB VS. BERG - North Dakota Rep. Rick Berg, apparently on the edge of a campaign for Senate, has drawn potentially powerful opposition in the form of the Club for Growth. The economic conservative group released a statement Thursday noting that Berg has voted against several hundred million dollars in spending cuts - and calling for different options in the Republican primary. Said Club president Chris Chocola: "Rick Berg lacks leadership in addressing our nation's spending problem at a time when people want government to spend less, not more. The Republican Party can and should demand better."


DON'T CALL IT A 'CIVIL WAR' - Wealthy Las Vegas attorney Byron Georgiou has hired a brand-name consulting team for his Nevada Senate bid that suggests he might be in the Democratic primary race to stay. Joe Trippi, Dan Hart and Paul Maslin have all signed onto the campaign that pits Georgiou against Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley. More from Catanese: "While Trippi and Maslin have experience in races across the country, Hart has his client base in Nevada, where he managed campaigns for Rory Reid and Clark County Commissioner Larry Brown. Georgiou also announced he was bringing on former Reid field director Josh Morrow, former Brown spokesman Sterling Clifford and new-media expert Tom Rossmeissl to round out his core team. Democrats have tried without success to persuade Georgiou to abandon his bid." http://politi.co/iDKVk5


ELSEWHERE IN NEVADA - REDISTRICTING READ: Nevada Republicans have unveiled their best-case plan for redrawing the state's congressional map, producing two Democratic-leaning districts, one GOP-leaning district and one seat that's essentially a tossup. Democrats have yet to release their own plan. More details on the GOP plan from AP: "Berkley's seat in Nevada's 1st Congressional District in Las Vegas would retain a Democratic edge by a margin of 45.5 percent to 32 percent. The 2nd Congressional District, which will be up for grabs in a special election after Republican Rep. Dean Heller is elevated to the Senate next month, will keep its GOP leaning with a margin of 42.8 percent to 35.7 percent. Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., would see the split in his 3rd Congressional District narrow to 41.8 percent GOP and 37.5 percent Democratic ... The new, 4th Congressional District, to be carved out southern Nevada, would lean Democratic by a nearly three-to-one margin." http://bit.ly/j2o22I


CODA - TWEETS OF THE DAY: "The more I think about it, the more I wonder if the Obama birth certificate is real. It doesn't look like he signed it anywhere ... Btw, that tweet was a joke. Just to be sure ... Get it? Babies can't sign birth certificates. Although now maybe they should. Just to be sure." - Former White House press secretary http://bit.ly/kTSyaf

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