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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


CURVE BALL - RON PAUL'S NEXT IN - The libertarian Texas congressman will formally join the 2012 fray today in Iowa, making an announcement at the Des Moines Holiday Inn Airport. "I'm going to start an exploratory committee," Paul said on Fox last night. "That might lead to the next decision." Paul's expected to unveil support from three members of the Iowa GOP's Central Committee at the event. http://bit.ly/ihuBoR


THE HOUSE CAMPAIGN - NRCC AIMS AT LUCKY 13 - Another day, another round in the federal budget wars. Today, the National Republican Congressional Committee will launch robo-calls, radio ads, web ads and more against 13 Democratic incumbents who have now voted against five different budget plans, accusing the lawmakers of supporting a "blank check" for the Obama administration instead of fiscal reform. On the target list: Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross, California Rep. Jim Costa, Georgia Rep. John Barrow, Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly, Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler, North Carolina Reps. Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler; Oklahoma Rep. Dan Boren, Oregon Reps. Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader; Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire and Utah Rep. Jim Matheson. NRCC spokeswoman Joanna Burgos jabs: "Last week, when given a chance to vote on five budget plans, these irresponsible Democrats refused to support any of them and instead chose to give the government another blank check to spend tax dollars freely and keep borrowing from China."


BARBOUR'S BOMBSHELL - WHAT'S NEXT? He was supposed to be one of the sure-thing candidates in the 2012 field and now Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is out of the picture. That means the presidential math changes for everybody else in the running. POLITICO's Martin and Haberman detail just how close to the starting line Barbour got: "Barbour had his presidential announcement plan lined up: A May 2 launch, followed by a fly-around to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida, before winding up in Jackson on Saturday the 7th for a big home-state fundraising bash ... [A] rough budget was sketched out: $55 million for the primary with $35 million earmarked for the first five states ... Surprising some of his own backers, Barbour revealed on a Monday afternoon conference call that he was not going to run. Asked by adviser Scott Reed, who led the call, if they had questions, none did. They were stunned ... An adviser who talked to Barbour Monday about the decision explained 'that he just never totally got [the fire to run].'" http://politi.co/ghFnwM


AND - Now the spotlight moves to Mitch Daniels and the other 2012-ers competing for Barbour's establishment support, your Score correspondent reports: "'If Mitch Daniels is going to run, he is the greatest beneficiary of Haley not running,' said [former New York Rep. Tom] Reynolds, who now works at the law and lobbying firm Nixon Peabody. 'If Mitch Daniels doesn't run, it will get sprinkled across the entire campaign field' ... The Hoosier issued a statement on Barbour's decision Monday saying he would 'have been proud to try to help [Barbour] had he chosen to run' ... With Barbour out of the running, Romney's financial strength and well developed political machine set him apart even more starkly from the rest of the GOP field [and he] can likely get an even bigger organizational head start over the field. 'I think Romney's secret strategy is that no one else runs,' mused Republican media consultant Curt Anderson." http://politi.co/gfUpY4


As Ed Failor turns the page, Rudy Giuliani keeps flirting and Sharron Angle won't take "no" for an answer, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


SCORE EXCLUSIVE - WAGNER MOVES: Former Missouri Republican Party Chair Ann Wagner will make a major announcement about her political future today on St. Louis radio, a source told Morning Score. Wagner's expected to make news on KMOX's The Mark Reardon Show and 97.1's The Dana Show with Dana Loesch. A former ambassador to Luxembourg and Republican National Committee co-chair, Wagner has been mentioned as a possible candidate for U.S. Senate against Democrat Claire McCaskill. She is also believed to be considering a run for the House, if Rep. Todd Akin vacates the 2nd District seat to run for Senate.


POPPING IN WISCONSIN - AXE FOR BARRETT - Former White House senior adviser David Axelrod will headline a fundraiser next month for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's reelection campaign, according to an invitation obtained by Score. It's the latest sign that in Wisconsin, all politics is national - and that Barrett can still draw support from the network he built during his 2010 campaign for governor. Barrett, who was recruited by the White House for last year's race, is running for a third mayoral term in 2012. As one of the top Democrats in the state, his name is also high on the list of candidates who might run against Gov. Scott Walker in a potential recall election. Barrett's event with Axelrod will take place in Milwaukee on May 25. See the invitation here: http://politi.co/iar8Kw


FOX DEBATE IN JEOPARDY? The first debate of the Republican presidential primary is supposed to take place May 5 in South Carolina. But few if any major candidates are on track to meet the qualifications for participating, according to the Los Angeles Times. Those qualifications include registering a campaign or exploratory committee, filing with the South Carolina GOP and winning an average of at least 1 percent support in five recent national polls. From the paper: "Of the likely GOP candidates that the state party recently announced were expected to participate in the debate ... only [Tim] Pawlenty and [Buddy] Roemer have filed paperwork with the FEC ... As of last Thursday, no candidate had yet paid South Carolina's filing fee ... When asked what the network would do if only a few candidates qualified in time for the debate, [Fox VP Michael] Clemente declined to answer directly, saying only: 'We're confident that we'll have enough candidates in South Carolina to have a vigorous and worthwhile debate.'" http://lat.ms/hETwLK


SCENES FROM THE REELECT - MESSINA BRIEFS - The Obama campaign blasted out its first video briefing starring campaign manager Jim Messina yesterday, showing the operative walking supporters through the 2012 electoral math. Messina's message is both encouraging - "In 2012, we have the opportunity to make 2008 look prehistoric," he says - and urgent. Messina emphasizes that "Republicans are going to be fired up to take on President Obama," and warns that the Citizens United ruling could help GOP groups spend $120 million in 2012. "We have to compete with that," he says. Watch the briefing here: http://bit.ly/dUPuDF


SHAKEUP IN IOWA - FAILOR MOVES ON - Ed Failor Jr. has stepped down as head of Iowans for Tax Relief, in a major shift for one of the early presidential state's key organizing groups. The Des Moines Register explains why that's a big deal: "Iowans for Tax Relief's 54,900 members and its political action committee are big organizing tools for any candidate. Last year, its political action committee endorsed Republican Terry Branstad for governor ... But on Thursday, a day before his resignation, Failor smacked Branstad for vetoing a compromise tax relief plan that had taken Republican and Democratic state lawmakers weeks to hammer out ... [B]oth Failor and Branstad's staff said the governor had nothing to do with Failor's exit. 'That's not related to this in any way. Not even remotely,' Failor told The Des Moines Register." http://bit.ly/gmsBEp


AND IN N.H. - YOU CAN'T MAKE IT UP: Celebrity real estate mogul Donald Trump is planning a series of top-secret stops in New Hampshire Wednesday. The reason for keeping things under the radar? Security, of course. The Union Leader: "A Trump Organization executive who is handling 'The Donald's' visit said that other than a media availability at Pease, none of the approximately eight stops Trump intends to make will be announced. The executive, Michael Cohen, said the locations of the Trump stops are being kept secret for security reasons. 'You can understand that you don't want somebody who may be up to no good to be waiting there,' Cohen said." http://bit.ly/gtKbVp


ONE MORE - HERE WE GO AGAIN: Trump isn't the only tough-talking New York media personality courting attention in the Granite State. Next up is Rudy Giuliani, per the Observer: "Giuliani will return to Manchester, New Hampshire next month for a house party at the home of local macher Ovide Lamontagne ... Last month, Giuliani spoke to the local G.O.P.'s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, but aides were careful to characterize that visit as repaying some old debts to friends and supporters. But the next visit would seem to give a greater indication that Giuliani is still seriously considering the race. The parties hosted by Lamontagne, who lost a Senate bid last year, are expressly designed to host potential presidential candidates." http://bit.ly/h81DWV


POLL OF THE DAY - JUMP BALL: Neither party is winning the debate over the 2012 budget - yet - but voters continue to trust Republicans more on fiscal issues, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. From this morning's paper: "Americans are evenly divided between the deficit plan proposed by President Obama and the one drafted by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan ... Nearly three-fourths of those surveyed, 71%, worry that the Democrats' plan 'won't go far enough to fix the problem' [of the deficit] ... Nearly two-thirds, 64%, fear the Republicans' deficit plan will take away needed protections for the poor and the disadvantaged and will 'protect the rich at the expense of everyone else' ... Republicans hold a 12-percentage-point edge over Democrats as the party better able to handle the budget, and a 5-point edge on the economy in general." http://usat.ly/f17cZp


HOUSE TALKER I - ANGLE COULD GO INDY - Former Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle might run for Congress off the GOP line if she's denied the party's nomination in a special election. The Las Vegas Review-Journal has the story on the Democrats' dream scenario: "Angle is considering running as an independent or third-party candidate for Congress if there's a special election and the GOP doesn't put her on the ballot ... If Angle does run as an independent, a three-way race with her, a Republican and a Democrat could open the way for a Democrat to win Heller's GOP seat ... 'It would not surprise me if she did that,' said Robert Uithoven, a GOP consultant whose candidate lost the 2010 Senate Republican primary to Angle in 2010. 'I don't think Sharron Angle has really ever cared about the consequences of a general election.'" http://bit.ly/dKlHOG


HOUSE TALKER II - DUFFY DRAWS A CHALLENGE - Former Wisconsin state Sen. Pat Kreitlow has announced a bid against GOP Rep. Sean Duffy, in a recruiting win for Democrats that tees up a battle of two television personalities. Wisconsin Radio Network: "Both Kreitlow and Duffy are known to TV viewers, Kreitlow as an Eau Claire news anchor - Duffy as a participant on MTV's 'The Real World.' Kreitlow says both of them have some comfort in public speaking, but that's where the similarity ends." http://bit.ly/hLdhFx


THE 2014 SCORE - MCCONNELL PREPARES: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's war chest is already approaching the $2 million mark, more than three full years before he has to face the voters again in 2014. Consider it the latest sign that the Kentucky Republican doesn't plan to hang up his spurs anytime soon. AP: "With Democrats eyeing his seat, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell raised nearly $1.9 million ... Documents filed with the Federal Election Commission show he banked $940,000 between Jan. 1 and March 31 ... McConnell, as GOP leader, was targeted by national Democrats in his last election in 2008 and expects to be again. He spent $20 million on his last campaign to get 52 percent of the vote and defeat wealthy Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford." http://bit.ly/i05SmI


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm doing this for me, for my boy Tripp and for the country." - Levi Johnston, on his deal to write a book titled, "Deer in the Headlights: My Life in Sarah Palin's Crosshairs" http://bit.ly/hFE6r3

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