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[image: In this newsletter: This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateFinancial Shorts: Forex Swaps; Derivative Capital Cushion; Public Opinion on Corp TaxFTAs: South Korea, Columbia and Panama] *Washington Update– May 3, 2011* [image: In this newsletter: This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateFinancial Shorts: Forex Swaps; Derivative Capital Cushion; Public Opinion on Corp TaxFTAs: South Korea, Columbia and Panama] [image: In this newsletter: This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateFinancial Shorts: Forex Swaps; Derivative Capital Cushion; Public Opinion on Corp TaxFTAs: South Korea, Columbia and Panama] [image: 1. This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateCongress returned this week from a two-week recess just as the Treasury Department has announced that a greater-than-expected increase in tax revenue has extended the government’s ability to pay its bills without an increase in the debt ceiling by about a month. The new date is August 2. The new estimate creates a significant grace period for Congress to consider an increase in the maximum amount that the government can borrow, a step that House Republicans say they will not take without an agreement to curb spending. Many Republicans have publicly agreed that Congress must raise the ceiling, although they insist that the White House must first agree to some form of meaningful spending limits. A vocal minority of members, however, have said that they are reluctant to raise the limit, and that Secretary Geithner has overstated the possible consequences of leaving the limit in place.Some bipartisan talks are under way in the Senate, and Vice President Biden is to convene a negotiating session between White House officials and Congressional leaders later this week. There is a growing consensus among Democrats that some restrictions on spending are reasonable and necessary to secure an agreement with Republicans.Reflecting the political potency of the issue, several moderate Democrats in the Senate have joined their GOP colleagues in both houses in calling for the debt ceiling vote to include a menu of specific cuts instead of a “clean” debt bill-a straight up-or-down vote- that the White House has called for. The willingness of Congressional Democrats to examine such options reflects a recognition that lawmakers cannot credibly forge ahead with a vote on the debt limit without some accompanying anti-deficit steps to make the increase palatable to voters. This heightens the possibility that any deal would include reductions to programs more guaranteed than the ones included in last month’s FY 2011 agreement. But according to party operatives, Republicans hope to roll all of this into a bargaining strategy: trading a temporary extension of the ceiling — five, six or seven months — for an escalating menu of cuts.The experience in the 1980s with the Gramm-Rudman law, and later attempts to impose automatic budget controls through pay-as-you-go rules, also show that Congress and the White House can and will find ways around them even if the proposals survive legal challenges. Faced with the prospect of spending cuts or tax increases required under the Gramm-Rudman law, lawmakers sometimes looked to more optimistic economic projections to avoid the reductions or skirted the cuts with budget gimmicks. And Congress has often waived its pay-as-you-go rules when they got in the way of costly legislation like the 2009 stimulus spending. The reality is that the fear factor is the single most important incentive for a deal. A prolonged impasse could lead lawmakers to cobble together a package of small-ball reform measures that allows them to raise the debt limit but does little more than offer political cover. In coming weeks, the debt-limit fight is likely to become entangled in the consideration of broader plans to address the government’s chronic budget deficits and the mounting debt. 2. Financial Shorts: Forex Swaps, Derivative Capital Cushions; Public Opinion on Corporate TaxIn what was characterized as a victory for business, the Treasury Department proposed that commonly used foreign exchange swaps and forwards should be exempted from rules intended to tighten oversight of other derivatives. The Treasury said that forcing these derivatives through clearinghouses and onto exchanges was not necessary because existing procedures in the foreign exchange market mitigate risk and ensure stability. Foreign exchange swaps and forwards, which represent about 5 percent of the $600 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, are used to lock in prices as protection against exchange rate fluctuations. Businesses, big banks and the securities industry lobbied the administration to exempt the financial instruments from the rules. They argued that clearing requirements were unnecessary given that most contracts expired after one week. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation enacted last year, the Treasury Secretary was given the power to determine whether the narrow subset of foreign exchange derivatives should be tightly regulated. The rest of the over-the-counter derivatives market would be forced through clearinghouses, which would stand between two parties and assume the risk if one party defaults. Some fear that this decision to exempt foreign exchange derivatives will open up the opportunity for arbitrage in which derivatives users look to employ the least-regulated products. However, the foreign exchange swaps market is different from other derivatives markets and under Dodd-Frank it would be illegal to use the instruments to evade tougher scrutiny that applies to other derivatives. The proposal is open for comment for 30 days, after which the Treasury will issue its final decision. The derivatives market received another round of regulations last week as the CFTC proposed rules that would force hedge funds and other firms that trade derivatives to bolster their capital cushion. The new capital rules are largely aimed at some 200 swap dealers- brokerage firms, large energy trading shops and Wall Street affiliates that arrange deals. They will also apply to hedge funds and other companies that have huge positions in swaps. Regulators hope that this proposal to build capital cushions in the derivatives industry could help prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial collapse. Firms will now have to put aside enough cash to cover unforeseen calamities. Until recently, regulators had little authority to set any rules for this market. Still, there is no guarantee that enhanced capital levels will avert future disasters or that there is a magic number that regulators see as a cure-all. Swap dealers and major trading firms that are already registered with the commission as futures brokers will have to hold at least $20 million in so-called adjusted net capital. Another set of firms will have to keep “tangible net equity” equal to $20 million. This standard will allow energy firms, for example, to count oil in the ground as part of their calculation. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed concern that the proposal is too lenient on the industry, but the commissioners voted 4 to 1 in favor of advancing the proposal to a 60-day public comment period. They are expected to vote on a final version of the rules by the fall. One of the agency’s two Republican commissioners voted against the plan, in line with actions of some Republican lawmakers that have introduced measures in Congress to delay or derail the capital requirements and other commission rules.According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, most Americans say they still prefer cuts in government spending to increasing taxes on corporations as a means of cutting the federal budget deficit. But when given a choice between raising taxes on corporations and raising taxes on households that make more than $250,000 a year, almost two-thirds of respondents opt for taxing businesses. There is a strong partisan divide: A majority of Republicans and independents favor cutting government spending over raising taxes on businesses, while Democrats are evenly divided. Democrats strongly support increasing corporate taxes rather than adding to the taxes of affluent households; Republicans and independents are split. In general, however, few Americans back increasing taxes on American businesses: only 37 percent said corporate taxes should be increased to help reduce the federal budget deficit. The rest agree with an alternative argument that increased taxes would discourage American companies from creating jobs and hurt them in the global marketplace. Thirty-two percent would rather see corporate taxes remain as they are now and 26 percent said taxes on corporate profits should be decreased. Six in 10 Americans surveyed think companies use their tax savings to give bonuses to executives and dividends to shareholders. About a quarter, 23 percent, said they thought tax savings were mostly reinvested back in the corporation and only 4 percent said savings were used to create new jobs for American workers. Almost half said all companies should be taxed at the same rate. About a third said some industries deserved a tax break. Small businesses, green companies and those in the health care industry were most frequently mentioned as deserving of tax breaks. 3. FTAs: South Korea, Columbia and PanamaRepublicans have renewed pressure on President Barack Obama to quickly submit free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress for action by July 1. The July deadline looms large because that is when rival trade deals take effect— South Korean's pact with the European Union and Colombia's with Canada—that threaten to further erode U.S. market share in those countries.While administration officials have said all three deals would attract the bipartisan support to pass, Democrats remain divided. Only the South Korean deal has attracted the backing of some unions, after a December deal that further opened up the country's auto sector. However, the White House has begun talks with Congress on the timing of passing trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. Like the proposed Korea deal, the Panama and Colombia free-trade pacts were negotiated by the Bush administration, but have languished without congressional ratification.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the Administration is ready to launch talks on submitting the Panama deal for approval after the Panamanian government ratified a tax treaty that removes one of the last hurdles to completion of the trade pact. Panama in the past has been a tax haven used by those trying to avoid paying taxes. The issues surrounding Colombia, however, are a more direct test of Obama’s campaign pledge to retool US trade policy so that it does not extend free-trade privileges to countries with lower labor, environmental and other standards. While the approach has a moral dimension, it is also meant to keep US workers from competing against countries where goods can be produced more cheaply because the laws are lax. However, after a recent meeting in Washington between President Obama and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to discuss the trade pact, Santos agreed to improve labor conditions in Colombia. Under the plan brokered by US and Colombian trade officials, Colombia will follow a roadmap to make incremental changes to its labor laws this year including providing greater protections for union leaders, such as shop stewards and bargaining committee members, for workers trying to organize or join a union, and for former union activists who may be threatened because of their past activities. The plan also requires the Colombian government to revise its teacher relocation and protection program to address high risks to teachers, require sentences of up to five years in jail for threats against labor union workers and direct the Colombian National Police to assign 95 full-time judicial police investigators to help in prosecution. US trade officials plan to monitor Colombia's progress on this labor rights action plan to determine when the deal is ready to move forward. US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said there’s “zero” possibility that the three pending free-trade agreements will be bundled into a single bill. However, Republicans in Congress want to consider all three at the same time so that Congress can take them up by July 1. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led 43 Republicans in vowing to block action on President Obama’s nominees for Commerce Secretary and other trade-related nominees until Congress gets all three agreements. Kirk said his office is discussing with lawmakers when to send the implementing legislation for accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. The deals won’t be sent as a package because no legal precedent exists and combining them into one measure would increase the risk for rejection on procedural grounds, he said. Overall, President Obama is seeking to move forward on a broad trade agenda beyond the free-trade agreements. That includes not only trying to renew expired programs to assist displaced workers - that will likely be used as a carrot to persuade some Democratic voters to pass the three FTAs- but also to provide duty-free preferences to imports from developing countries and prepare for lifting trade restrictions with Russia as that nation seeks to join the World Trade Organization.] [image: 1. This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateCongress returned this week from a two-week recess just as the Treasury Department has announced that a greater-than-expected increase in tax revenue has extended the government’s ability to pay its bills without an increase in the debt ceiling by about a month. The new date is August 2. The new estimate creates a significant grace period for Congress to consider an increase in the maximum amount that the government can borrow, a step that House Republicans say they will not take without an agreement to curb spending. Many Republicans have publicly agreed that Congress must raise the ceiling, although they insist that the White House must first agree to some form of meaningful spending limits. A vocal minority of members, however, have said that they are reluctant to raise the limit, and that Secretary Geithner has overstated the possible consequences of leaving the limit in place.Some bipartisan talks are under way in the Senate, and Vice President Biden is to convene a negotiating session between White House officials and Congressional leaders later this week. There is a growing consensus among Democrats that some restrictions on spending are reasonable and necessary to secure an agreement with Republicans.Reflecting the political potency of the issue, several moderate Democrats in the Senate have joined their GOP colleagues in both houses in calling for the debt ceiling vote to include a menu of specific cuts instead of a “clean” debt bill-a straight up-or-down vote- that the White House has called for. The willingness of Congressional Democrats to examine such options reflects a recognition that lawmakers cannot credibly forge ahead with a vote on the debt limit without some accompanying anti-deficit steps to make the increase palatable to voters. This heightens the possibility that any deal would include reductions to programs more guaranteed than the ones included in last month’s FY 2011 agreement. But according to party operatives, Republicans hope to roll all of this into a bargaining strategy: trading a temporary extension of the ceiling — five, six or seven months — for an escalating menu of cuts.The experience in the 1980s with the Gramm-Rudman law, and later attempts to impose automatic budget controls through pay-as-you-go rules, also show that Congress and the White House can and will find ways around them even if the proposals survive legal challenges. Faced with the prospect of spending cuts or tax increases required under the Gramm-Rudman law, lawmakers sometimes looked to more optimistic economic projections to avoid the reductions or skirted the cuts with budget gimmicks. And Congress has often waived its pay-as-you-go rules when they got in the way of costly legislation like the 2009 stimulus spending. The reality is that the fear factor is the single most important incentive for a deal. A prolonged impasse could lead lawmakers to cobble together a package of small-ball reform measures that allows them to raise the debt limit but does little more than offer political cover. In coming weeks, the debt-limit fight is likely to become entangled in the consideration of broader plans to address the government’s chronic budget deficits and the mounting debt. 2. Financial Shorts: Forex Swaps, Derivative Capital Cushions; Public Opinion on Corporate TaxIn what was characterized as a victory for business, the Treasury Department proposed that commonly used foreign exchange swaps and forwards should be exempted from rules intended to tighten oversight of other derivatives. The Treasury said that forcing these derivatives through clearinghouses and onto exchanges was not necessary because existing procedures in the foreign exchange market mitigate risk and ensure stability. Foreign exchange swaps and forwards, which represent about 5 percent of the $600 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, are used to lock in prices as protection against exchange rate fluctuations. Businesses, big banks and the securities industry lobbied the administration to exempt the financial instruments from the rules. They argued that clearing requirements were unnecessary given that most contracts expired after one week. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation enacted last year, the Treasury Secretary was given the power to determine whether the narrow subset of foreign exchange derivatives should be tightly regulated. The rest of the over-the-counter derivatives market would be forced through clearinghouses, which would stand between two parties and assume the risk if one party defaults. Some fear that this decision to exempt foreign exchange derivatives will open up the opportunity for arbitrage in which derivatives users look to employ the least-regulated products. However, the foreign exchange swaps market is different from other derivatives markets and under Dodd-Frank it would be illegal to use the instruments to evade tougher scrutiny that applies to other derivatives. The proposal is open for comment for 30 days, after which the Treasury will issue its final decision. The derivatives market received another round of regulations last week as the CFTC proposed rules that would force hedge funds and other firms that trade derivatives to bolster their capital cushion. The new capital rules are largely aimed at some 200 swap dealers- brokerage firms, large energy trading shops and Wall Street affiliates that arrange deals. They will also apply to hedge funds and other companies that have huge positions in swaps. Regulators hope that this proposal to build capital cushions in the derivatives industry could help prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial collapse. Firms will now have to put aside enough cash to cover unforeseen calamities. Until recently, regulators had little authority to set any rules for this market. Still, there is no guarantee that enhanced capital levels will avert future disasters or that there is a magic number that regulators see as a cure-all. Swap dealers and major trading firms that are already registered with the commission as futures brokers will have to hold at least $20 million in so-called adjusted net capital. Another set of firms will have to keep “tangible net equity” equal to $20 million. This standard will allow energy firms, for example, to count oil in the ground as part of their calculation. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed concern that the proposal is too lenient on the industry, but the commissioners voted 4 to 1 in favor of advancing the proposal to a 60-day public comment period. They are expected to vote on a final version of the rules by the fall. One of the agency’s two Republican commissioners voted against the plan, in line with actions of some Republican lawmakers that have introduced measures in Congress to delay or derail the capital requirements and other commission rules.According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, most Americans say they still prefer cuts in government spending to increasing taxes on corporations as a means of cutting the federal budget deficit. But when given a choice between raising taxes on corporations and raising taxes on households that make more than $250,000 a year, almost two-thirds of respondents opt for taxing businesses. There is a strong partisan divide: A majority of Republicans and independents favor cutting government spending over raising taxes on businesses, while Democrats are evenly divided. Democrats strongly support increasing corporate taxes rather than adding to the taxes of affluent households; Republicans and independents are split. In general, however, few Americans back increasing taxes on American businesses: only 37 percent said corporate taxes should be increased to help reduce the federal budget deficit. The rest agree with an alternative argument that increased taxes would discourage American companies from creating jobs and hurt them in the global marketplace. Thirty-two percent would rather see corporate taxes remain as they are now and 26 percent said taxes on corporate profits should be decreased. Six in 10 Americans surveyed think companies use their tax savings to give bonuses to executives and dividends to shareholders. About a quarter, 23 percent, said they thought tax savings were mostly reinvested back in the corporation and only 4 percent said savings were used to create new jobs for American workers. Almost half said all companies should be taxed at the same rate. About a third said some industries deserved a tax break. Small businesses, green companies and those in the health care industry were most frequently mentioned as deserving of tax breaks. 3. FTAs: South Korea, Columbia and PanamaRepublicans have renewed pressure on President Barack Obama to quickly submit free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress for action by July 1. The July deadline looms large because that is when rival trade deals take effect— South Korean's pact with the European Union and Colombia's with Canada—that threaten to further erode U.S. market share in those countries.While administration officials have said all three deals would attract the bipartisan support to pass, Democrats remain divided. Only the South Korean deal has attracted the backing of some unions, after a December deal that further opened up the country's auto sector. However, the White House has begun talks with Congress on the timing of passing trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. Like the proposed Korea deal, the Panama and Colombia free-trade pacts were negotiated by the Bush administration, but have languished without congressional ratification.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the Administration is ready to launch talks on submitting the Panama deal for approval after the Panamanian government ratified a tax treaty that removes one of the last hurdles to completion of the trade pact. Panama in the past has been a tax haven used by those trying to avoid paying taxes. The issues surrounding Colombia, however, are a more direct test of Obama’s campaign pledge to retool US trade policy so that it does not extend free-trade privileges to countries with lower labor, environmental and other standards. While the approach has a moral dimension, it is also meant to keep US workers from competing against countries where goods can be produced more cheaply because the laws are lax. However, after a recent meeting in Washington between President Obama and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to discuss the trade pact, Santos agreed to improve labor conditions in Colombia. Under the plan brokered by US and Colombian trade officials, Colombia will follow a roadmap to make incremental changes to its labor laws this year including providing greater protections for union leaders, such as shop stewards and bargaining committee members, for workers trying to organize or join a union, and for former union activists who may be threatened because of their past activities. The plan also requires the Colombian government to revise its teacher relocation and protection program to address high risks to teachers, require sentences of up to five years in jail for threats against labor union workers and direct the Colombian National Police to assign 95 full-time judicial police investigators to help in prosecution. US trade officials plan to monitor Colombia's progress on this labor rights action plan to determine when the deal is ready to move forward. US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said there’s “zero” possibility that the three pending free-trade agreements will be bundled into a single bill. However, Republicans in Congress want to consider all three at the same time so that Congress can take them up by July 1. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led 43 Republicans in vowing to block action on President Obama’s nominees for Commerce Secretary and other trade-related nominees until Congress gets all three agreements. Kirk said his office is discussing with lawmakers when to send the implementing legislation for accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. The deals won’t be sent as a package because no legal precedent exists and combining them into one measure would increase the risk for rejection on procedural grounds, he said. Overall, President Obama is seeking to move forward on a broad trade agenda beyond the free-trade agreements. That includes not only trying to renew expired programs to assist displaced workers - that will likely be used as a carrot to persuade some Democratic voters to pass the three FTAs- but also to provide duty-free preferences to imports from developing countries and prepare for lifting trade restrictions with Russia as that nation seeks to join the World Trade Organization.] [image: 1. This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateCongress returned this week from a two-week recess just as the Treasury Department has announced that a greater-than-expected increase in tax revenue has extended the government’s ability to pay its bills without an increase in the debt ceiling by about a month. The new date is August 2. The new estimate creates a significant grace period for Congress to consider an increase in the maximum amount that the government can borrow, a step that House Republicans say they will not take without an agreement to curb spending. Many Republicans have publicly agreed that Congress must raise the ceiling, although they insist that the White House must first agree to some form of meaningful spending limits. A vocal minority of members, however, have said that they are reluctant to raise the limit, and that Secretary Geithner has overstated the possible consequences of leaving the limit in place.Some bipartisan talks are under way in the Senate, and Vice President Biden is to convene a negotiating session between White House officials and Congressional leaders later this week. There is a growing consensus among Democrats that some restrictions on spending are reasonable and necessary to secure an agreement with Republicans.Reflecting the political potency of the issue, several moderate Democrats in the Senate have joined their GOP colleagues in both houses in calling for the debt ceiling vote to include a menu of specific cuts instead of a “clean” debt bill-a straight up-or-down vote- that the White House has called for. The willingness of Congressional Democrats to examine such options reflects a recognition that lawmakers cannot credibly forge ahead with a vote on the debt limit without some accompanying anti-deficit steps to make the increase palatable to voters. This heightens the possibility that any deal would include reductions to programs more guaranteed than the ones included in last month’s FY 2011 agreement. But according to party operatives, Republicans hope to roll all of this into a bargaining strategy: trading a temporary extension of the ceiling — five, six or seven months — for an escalating menu of cuts.The experience in the 1980s with the Gramm-Rudman law, and later attempts to impose automatic budget controls through pay-as-you-go rules, also show that Congress and the White House can and will find ways around them even if the proposals survive legal challenges. Faced with the prospect of spending cuts or tax increases required under the Gramm-Rudman law, lawmakers sometimes looked to more optimistic economic projections to avoid the reductions or skirted the cuts with budget gimmicks. And Congress has often waived its pay-as-you-go rules when they got in the way of costly legislation like the 2009 stimulus spending. The reality is that the fear factor is the single most important incentive for a deal. A prolonged impasse could lead lawmakers to cobble together a package of small-ball reform measures that allows them to raise the debt limit but does little more than offer political cover. In coming weeks, the debt-limit fight is likely to become entangled in the consideration of broader plans to address the government’s chronic budget deficits and the mounting debt. 2. Financial Shorts: Forex Swaps, Derivative Capital Cushions; Public Opinion on Corporate TaxIn what was characterized as a victory for business, the Treasury Department proposed that commonly used foreign exchange swaps and forwards should be exempted from rules intended to tighten oversight of other derivatives. The Treasury said that forcing these derivatives through clearinghouses and onto exchanges was not necessary because existing procedures in the foreign exchange market mitigate risk and ensure stability. Foreign exchange swaps and forwards, which represent about 5 percent of the $600 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, are used to lock in prices as protection against exchange rate fluctuations. Businesses, big banks and the securities industry lobbied the administration to exempt the financial instruments from the rules. They argued that clearing requirements were unnecessary given that most contracts expired after one week. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation enacted last year, the Treasury Secretary was given the power to determine whether the narrow subset of foreign exchange derivatives should be tightly regulated. The rest of the over-the-counter derivatives market would be forced through clearinghouses, which would stand between two parties and assume the risk if one party defaults. Some fear that this decision to exempt foreign exchange derivatives will open up the opportunity for arbitrage in which derivatives users look to employ the least-regulated products. However, the foreign exchange swaps market is different from other derivatives markets and under Dodd-Frank it would be illegal to use the instruments to evade tougher scrutiny that applies to other derivatives. The proposal is open for comment for 30 days, after which the Treasury will issue its final decision. The derivatives market received another round of regulations last week as the CFTC proposed rules that would force hedge funds and other firms that trade derivatives to bolster their capital cushion. The new capital rules are largely aimed at some 200 swap dealers- brokerage firms, large energy trading shops and Wall Street affiliates that arrange deals. They will also apply to hedge funds and other companies that have huge positions in swaps. Regulators hope that this proposal to build capital cushions in the derivatives industry could help prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial collapse. Firms will now have to put aside enough cash to cover unforeseen calamities. Until recently, regulators had little authority to set any rules for this market. Still, there is no guarantee that enhanced capital levels will avert future disasters or that there is a magic number that regulators see as a cure-all. Swap dealers and major trading firms that are already registered with the commission as futures brokers will have to hold at least $20 million in so-called adjusted net capital. Another set of firms will have to keep “tangible net equity” equal to $20 million. This standard will allow energy firms, for example, to count oil in the ground as part of their calculation. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed concern that the proposal is too lenient on the industry, but the commissioners voted 4 to 1 in favor of advancing the proposal to a 60-day public comment period. They are expected to vote on a final version of the rules by the fall. One of the agency’s two Republican commissioners voted against the plan, in line with actions of some Republican lawmakers that have introduced measures in Congress to delay or derail the capital requirements and other commission rules.According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, most Americans say they still prefer cuts in government spending to increasing taxes on corporations as a means of cutting the federal budget deficit. But when given a choice between raising taxes on corporations and raising taxes on households that make more than $250,000 a year, almost two-thirds of respondents opt for taxing businesses. There is a strong partisan divide: A majority of Republicans and independents favor cutting government spending over raising taxes on businesses, while Democrats are evenly divided. Democrats strongly support increasing corporate taxes rather than adding to the taxes of affluent households; Republicans and independents are split. In general, however, few Americans back increasing taxes on American businesses: only 37 percent said corporate taxes should be increased to help reduce the federal budget deficit. The rest agree with an alternative argument that increased taxes would discourage American companies from creating jobs and hurt them in the global marketplace. Thirty-two percent would rather see corporate taxes remain as they are now and 26 percent said taxes on corporate profits should be decreased. Six in 10 Americans surveyed think companies use their tax savings to give bonuses to executives and dividends to shareholders. About a quarter, 23 percent, said they thought tax savings were mostly reinvested back in the corporation and only 4 percent said savings were used to create new jobs for American workers. Almost half said all companies should be taxed at the same rate. About a third said some industries deserved a tax break. Small businesses, green companies and those in the health care industry were most frequently mentioned as deserving of tax breaks. 3. FTAs: South Korea, Columbia and PanamaRepublicans have renewed pressure on President Barack Obama to quickly submit free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress for action by July 1. The July deadline looms large because that is when rival trade deals take effect— South Korean's pact with the European Union and Colombia's with Canada—that threaten to further erode U.S. market share in those countries.While administration officials have said all three deals would attract the bipartisan support to pass, Democrats remain divided. Only the South Korean deal has attracted the backing of some unions, after a December deal that further opened up the country's auto sector. However, the White House has begun talks with Congress on the timing of passing trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. Like the proposed Korea deal, the Panama and Colombia free-trade pacts were negotiated by the Bush administration, but have languished without congressional ratification.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the Administration is ready to launch talks on submitting the Panama deal for approval after the Panamanian government ratified a tax treaty that removes one of the last hurdles to completion of the trade pact. Panama in the past has been a tax haven used by those trying to avoid paying taxes. The issues surrounding Colombia, however, are a more direct test of Obama’s campaign pledge to retool US trade policy so that it does not extend free-trade privileges to countries with lower labor, environmental and other standards. While the approach has a moral dimension, it is also meant to keep US workers from competing against countries where goods can be produced more cheaply because the laws are lax. However, after a recent meeting in Washington between President Obama and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to discuss the trade pact, Santos agreed to improve labor conditions in Colombia. Under the plan brokered by US and Colombian trade officials, Colombia will follow a roadmap to make incremental changes to its labor laws this year including providing greater protections for union leaders, such as shop stewards and bargaining committee members, for workers trying to organize or join a union, and for former union activists who may be threatened because of their past activities. The plan also requires the Colombian government to revise its teacher relocation and protection program to address high risks to teachers, require sentences of up to five years in jail for threats against labor union workers and direct the Colombian National Police to assign 95 full-time judicial police investigators to help in prosecution. US trade officials plan to monitor Colombia's progress on this labor rights action plan to determine when the deal is ready to move forward. US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said there’s “zero” possibility that the three pending free-trade agreements will be bundled into a single bill. However, Republicans in Congress want to consider all three at the same time so that Congress can take them up by July 1. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led 43 Republicans in vowing to block action on President Obama’s nominees for Commerce Secretary and other trade-related nominees until Congress gets all three agreements. Kirk said his office is discussing with lawmakers when to send the implementing legislation for accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. The deals won’t be sent as a package because no legal precedent exists and combining them into one measure would increase the risk for rejection on procedural grounds, he said. Overall, President Obama is seeking to move forward on a broad trade agenda beyond the free-trade agreements. That includes not only trying to renew expired programs to assist displaced workers - that will likely be used as a carrot to persuade some Democratic voters to pass the three FTAs- but also to provide duty-free preferences to imports from developing countries and prepare for lifting trade restrictions with Russia as that nation seeks to join the World Trade Organization.] [image: 1. This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateCongress returned this week from a two-week recess just as the Treasury Department has announced that a greater-than-expected increase in tax revenue has extended the government’s ability to pay its bills without an increase in the debt ceiling by about a month. The new date is August 2. The new estimate creates a significant grace period for Congress to consider an increase in the maximum amount that the government can borrow, a step that House Republicans say they will not take without an agreement to curb spending. Many Republicans have publicly agreed that Congress must raise the ceiling, although they insist that the White House must first agree to some form of meaningful spending limits. A vocal minority of members, however, have said that they are reluctant to raise the limit, and that Secretary Geithner has overstated the possible consequences of leaving the limit in place.Some bipartisan talks are under way in the Senate, and Vice President Biden is to convene a negotiating session between White House officials and Congressional leaders later this week. There is a growing consensus among Democrats that some restrictions on spending are reasonable and necessary to secure an agreement with Republicans.Reflecting the political potency of the issue, several moderate Democrats in the Senate have joined their GOP colleagues in both houses in calling for the debt ceiling vote to include a menu of specific cuts instead of a “clean” debt bill-a straight up-or-down vote- that the White House has called for. The willingness of Congressional Democrats to examine such options reflects a recognition that lawmakers cannot credibly forge ahead with a vote on the debt limit without some accompanying anti-deficit steps to make the increase palatable to voters. This heightens the possibility that any deal would include reductions to programs more guaranteed than the ones included in last month’s FY 2011 agreement. But according to party operatives, Republicans hope to roll all of this into a bargaining strategy: trading a temporary extension of the ceiling — five, six or seven months — for an escalating menu of cuts.The experience in the 1980s with the Gramm-Rudman law, and later attempts to impose automatic budget controls through pay-as-you-go rules, also show that Congress and the White House can and will find ways around them even if the proposals survive legal challenges. Faced with the prospect of spending cuts or tax increases required under the Gramm-Rudman law, lawmakers sometimes looked to more optimistic economic projections to avoid the reductions or skirted the cuts with budget gimmicks. And Congress has often waived its pay-as-you-go rules when they got in the way of costly legislation like the 2009 stimulus spending. The reality is that the fear factor is the single most important incentive for a deal. A prolonged impasse could lead lawmakers to cobble together a package of small-ball reform measures that allows them to raise the debt limit but does little more than offer political cover. In coming weeks, the debt-limit fight is likely to become entangled in the consideration of broader plans to address the government’s chronic budget deficits and the mounting debt. 2. Financial Shorts: Forex Swaps, Derivative Capital Cushions; Public Opinion on Corporate TaxIn what was characterized as a victory for business, the Treasury Department proposed that commonly used foreign exchange swaps and forwards should be exempted from rules intended to tighten oversight of other derivatives. The Treasury said that forcing these derivatives through clearinghouses and onto exchanges was not necessary because existing procedures in the foreign exchange market mitigate risk and ensure stability. Foreign exchange swaps and forwards, which represent about 5 percent of the $600 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, are used to lock in prices as protection against exchange rate fluctuations. Businesses, big banks and the securities industry lobbied the administration to exempt the financial instruments from the rules. They argued that clearing requirements were unnecessary given that most contracts expired after one week. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation enacted last year, the Treasury Secretary was given the power to determine whether the narrow subset of foreign exchange derivatives should be tightly regulated. The rest of the over-the-counter derivatives market would be forced through clearinghouses, which would stand between two parties and assume the risk if one party defaults. Some fear that this decision to exempt foreign exchange derivatives will open up the opportunity for arbitrage in which derivatives users look to employ the least-regulated products. However, the foreign exchange swaps market is different from other derivatives markets and under Dodd-Frank it would be illegal to use the instruments to evade tougher scrutiny that applies to other derivatives. The proposal is open for comment for 30 days, after which the Treasury will issue its final decision. The derivatives market received another round of regulations last week as the CFTC proposed rules that would force hedge funds and other firms that trade derivatives to bolster their capital cushion. The new capital rules are largely aimed at some 200 swap dealers- brokerage firms, large energy trading shops and Wall Street affiliates that arrange deals. They will also apply to hedge funds and other companies that have huge positions in swaps. Regulators hope that this proposal to build capital cushions in the derivatives industry could help prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial collapse. Firms will now have to put aside enough cash to cover unforeseen calamities. Until recently, regulators had little authority to set any rules for this market. Still, there is no guarantee that enhanced capital levels will avert future disasters or that there is a magic number that regulators see as a cure-all. Swap dealers and major trading firms that are already registered with the commission as futures brokers will have to hold at least $20 million in so-called adjusted net capital. Another set of firms will have to keep “tangible net equity” equal to $20 million. This standard will allow energy firms, for example, to count oil in the ground as part of their calculation. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed concern that the proposal is too lenient on the industry, but the commissioners voted 4 to 1 in favor of advancing the proposal to a 60-day public comment period. They are expected to vote on a final version of the rules by the fall. One of the agency’s two Republican commissioners voted against the plan, in line with actions of some Republican lawmakers that have introduced measures in Congress to delay or derail the capital requirements and other commission rules.According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, most Americans say they still prefer cuts in government spending to increasing taxes on corporations as a means of cutting the federal budget deficit. But when given a choice between raising taxes on corporations and raising taxes on households that make more than $250,000 a year, almost two-thirds of respondents opt for taxing businesses. There is a strong partisan divide: A majority of Republicans and independents favor cutting government spending over raising taxes on businesses, while Democrats are evenly divided. Democrats strongly support increasing corporate taxes rather than adding to the taxes of affluent households; Republicans and independents are split. In general, however, few Americans back increasing taxes on American businesses: only 37 percent said corporate taxes should be increased to help reduce the federal budget deficit. The rest agree with an alternative argument that increased taxes would discourage American companies from creating jobs and hurt them in the global marketplace. Thirty-two percent would rather see corporate taxes remain as they are now and 26 percent said taxes on corporate profits should be decreased. Six in 10 Americans surveyed think companies use their tax savings to give bonuses to executives and dividends to shareholders. About a quarter, 23 percent, said they thought tax savings were mostly reinvested back in the corporation and only 4 percent said savings were used to create new jobs for American workers. Almost half said all companies should be taxed at the same rate. About a third said some industries deserved a tax break. Small businesses, green companies and those in the health care industry were most frequently mentioned as deserving of tax breaks. 3. FTAs: South Korea, Columbia and PanamaRepublicans have renewed pressure on President Barack Obama to quickly submit free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress for action by July 1. The July deadline looms large because that is when rival trade deals take effect— South Korean's pact with the European Union and Colombia's with Canada—that threaten to further erode U.S. market share in those countries.While administration officials have said all three deals would attract the bipartisan support to pass, Democrats remain divided. Only the South Korean deal has attracted the backing of some unions, after a December deal that further opened up the country's auto sector. However, the White House has begun talks with Congress on the timing of passing trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. Like the proposed Korea deal, the Panama and Colombia free-trade pacts were negotiated by the Bush administration, but have languished without congressional ratification.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the Administration is ready to launch talks on submitting the Panama deal for approval after the Panamanian government ratified a tax treaty that removes one of the last hurdles to completion of the trade pact. Panama in the past has been a tax haven used by those trying to avoid paying taxes. The issues surrounding Colombia, however, are a more direct test of Obama’s campaign pledge to retool US trade policy so that it does not extend free-trade privileges to countries with lower labor, environmental and other standards. While the approach has a moral dimension, it is also meant to keep US workers from competing against countries where goods can be produced more cheaply because the laws are lax. However, after a recent meeting in Washington between President Obama and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to discuss the trade pact, Santos agreed to improve labor conditions in Colombia. Under the plan brokered by US and Colombian trade officials, Colombia will follow a roadmap to make incremental changes to its labor laws this year including providing greater protections for union leaders, such as shop stewards and bargaining committee members, for workers trying to organize or join a union, and for former union activists who may be threatened because of their past activities. The plan also requires the Colombian government to revise its teacher relocation and protection program to address high risks to teachers, require sentences of up to five years in jail for threats against labor union workers and direct the Colombian National Police to assign 95 full-time judicial police investigators to help in prosecution. US trade officials plan to monitor Colombia's progress on this labor rights action plan to determine when the deal is ready to move forward. US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said there’s “zero” possibility that the three pending free-trade agreements will be bundled into a single bill. However, Republicans in Congress want to consider all three at the same time so that Congress can take them up by July 1. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led 43 Republicans in vowing to block action on President Obama’s nominees for Commerce Secretary and other trade-related nominees until Congress gets all three agreements. Kirk said his office is discussing with lawmakers when to send the implementing legislation for accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. The deals won’t be sent as a package because no legal precedent exists and combining them into one measure would increase the risk for rejection on procedural grounds, he said. Overall, President Obama is seeking to move forward on a broad trade agenda beyond the free-trade agreements. That includes not only trying to renew expired programs to assist displaced workers - that will likely be used as a carrot to persuade some Democratic voters to pass the three FTAs- but also to provide duty-free preferences to imports from developing countries and prepare for lifting trade restrictions with Russia as that nation seeks to join the World Trade Organization.] [image: 1. This Week in Washington: Debt Ceiling DebateCongress returned this week from a two-week recess just as the Treasury Department has announced that a greater-than-expected increase in tax revenue has extended the government’s ability to pay its bills without an increase in the debt ceiling by about a month. The new date is August 2. The new estimate creates a significant grace period for Congress to consider an increase in the maximum amount that the government can borrow, a step that House Republicans say they will not take without an agreement to curb spending. Many Republicans have publicly agreed that Congress must raise the ceiling, although they insist that the White House must first agree to some form of meaningful spending limits. A vocal minority of members, however, have said that they are reluctant to raise the limit, and that Secretary Geithner has overstated the possible consequences of leaving the limit in place.Some bipartisan talks are under way in the Senate, and Vice President Biden is to convene a negotiating session between White House officials and Congressional leaders later this week. There is a growing consensus among Democrats that some restrictions on spending are reasonable and necessary to secure an agreement with Republicans.Reflecting the political potency of the issue, several moderate Democrats in the Senate have joined their GOP colleagues in both houses in calling for the debt ceiling vote to include a menu of specific cuts instead of a “clean” debt bill-a straight up-or-down vote- that the White House has called for. The willingness of Congressional Democrats to examine such options reflects a recognition that lawmakers cannot credibly forge ahead with a vote on the debt limit without some accompanying anti-deficit steps to make the increase palatable to voters. This heightens the possibility that any deal would include reductions to programs more guaranteed than the ones included in last month’s FY 2011 agreement. But according to party operatives, Republicans hope to roll all of this into a bargaining strategy: trading a temporary extension of the ceiling — five, six or seven months — for an escalating menu of cuts.The experience in the 1980s with the Gramm-Rudman law, and later attempts to impose automatic budget controls through pay-as-you-go rules, also show that Congress and the White House can and will find ways around them even if the proposals survive legal challenges. Faced with the prospect of spending cuts or tax increases required under the Gramm-Rudman law, lawmakers sometimes looked to more optimistic economic projections to avoid the reductions or skirted the cuts with budget gimmicks. And Congress has often waived its pay-as-you-go rules when they got in the way of costly legislation like the 2009 stimulus spending. The reality is that the fear factor is the single most important incentive for a deal. A prolonged impasse could lead lawmakers to cobble together a package of small-ball reform measures that allows them to raise the debt limit but does little more than offer political cover. In coming weeks, the debt-limit fight is likely to become entangled in the consideration of broader plans to address the government’s chronic budget deficits and the mounting debt. 2. Financial Shorts: Forex Swaps, Derivative Capital Cushions; Public Opinion on Corporate TaxIn what was characterized as a victory for business, the Treasury Department proposed that commonly used foreign exchange swaps and forwards should be exempted from rules intended to tighten oversight of other derivatives. The Treasury said that forcing these derivatives through clearinghouses and onto exchanges was not necessary because existing procedures in the foreign exchange market mitigate risk and ensure stability. Foreign exchange swaps and forwards, which represent about 5 percent of the $600 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market, are used to lock in prices as protection against exchange rate fluctuations. Businesses, big banks and the securities industry lobbied the administration to exempt the financial instruments from the rules. They argued that clearing requirements were unnecessary given that most contracts expired after one week. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation enacted last year, the Treasury Secretary was given the power to determine whether the narrow subset of foreign exchange derivatives should be tightly regulated. The rest of the over-the-counter derivatives market would be forced through clearinghouses, which would stand between two parties and assume the risk if one party defaults. Some fear that this decision to exempt foreign exchange derivatives will open up the opportunity for arbitrage in which derivatives users look to employ the least-regulated products. However, the foreign exchange swaps market is different from other derivatives markets and under Dodd-Frank it would be illegal to use the instruments to evade tougher scrutiny that applies to other derivatives. The proposal is open for comment for 30 days, after which the Treasury will issue its final decision. The derivatives market received another round of regulations last week as the CFTC proposed rules that would force hedge funds and other firms that trade derivatives to bolster their capital cushion. The new capital rules are largely aimed at some 200 swap dealers- brokerage firms, large energy trading shops and Wall Street affiliates that arrange deals. They will also apply to hedge funds and other companies that have huge positions in swaps. Regulators hope that this proposal to build capital cushions in the derivatives industry could help prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial collapse. Firms will now have to put aside enough cash to cover unforeseen calamities. Until recently, regulators had little authority to set any rules for this market. Still, there is no guarantee that enhanced capital levels will avert future disasters or that there is a magic number that regulators see as a cure-all. Swap dealers and major trading firms that are already registered with the commission as futures brokers will have to hold at least $20 million in so-called adjusted net capital. Another set of firms will have to keep “tangible net equity” equal to $20 million. This standard will allow energy firms, for example, to count oil in the ground as part of their calculation. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed concern that the proposal is too lenient on the industry, but the commissioners voted 4 to 1 in favor of advancing the proposal to a 60-day public comment period. They are expected to vote on a final version of the rules by the fall. One of the agency’s two Republican commissioners voted against the plan, in line with actions of some Republican lawmakers that have introduced measures in Congress to delay or derail the capital requirements and other commission rules.According to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, most Americans say they still prefer cuts in government spending to increasing taxes on corporations as a means of cutting the federal budget deficit. But when given a choice between raising taxes on corporations and raising taxes on households that make more than $250,000 a year, almost two-thirds of respondents opt for taxing businesses. There is a strong partisan divide: A majority of Republicans and independents favor cutting government spending over raising taxes on businesses, while Democrats are evenly divided. Democrats strongly support increasing corporate taxes rather than adding to the taxes of affluent households; Republicans and independents are split. In general, however, few Americans back increasing taxes on American businesses: only 37 percent said corporate taxes should be increased to help reduce the federal budget deficit. The rest agree with an alternative argument that increased taxes would discourage American companies from creating jobs and hurt them in the global marketplace. Thirty-two percent would rather see corporate taxes remain as they are now and 26 percent said taxes on corporate profits should be decreased. Six in 10 Americans surveyed think companies use their tax savings to give bonuses to executives and dividends to shareholders. About a quarter, 23 percent, said they thought tax savings were mostly reinvested back in the corporation and only 4 percent said savings were used to create new jobs for American workers. Almost half said all companies should be taxed at the same rate. About a third said some industries deserved a tax break. Small businesses, green companies and those in the health care industry were most frequently mentioned as deserving of tax breaks. 3. FTAs: South Korea, Columbia and PanamaRepublicans have renewed pressure on President Barack Obama to quickly submit free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress for action by July 1. The July deadline looms large because that is when rival trade deals take effect— South Korean's pact with the European Union and Colombia's with Canada—that threaten to further erode U.S. market share in those countries.While administration officials have said all three deals would attract the bipartisan support to pass, Democrats remain divided. Only the South Korean deal has attracted the backing of some unions, after a December deal that further opened up the country's auto sector. However, the White House has begun talks with Congress on the timing of passing trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. Like the proposed Korea deal, the Panama and Colombia free-trade pacts were negotiated by the Bush administration, but have languished without congressional ratification.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the Administration is ready to launch talks on submitting the Panama deal for approval after the Panamanian government ratified a tax treaty that removes one of the last hurdles to completion of the trade pact. Panama in the past has been a tax haven used by those trying to avoid paying taxes. The issues surrounding Colombia, however, are a more direct test of Obama’s campaign pledge to retool US trade policy so that it does not extend free-trade privileges to countries with lower labor, environmental and other standards. While the approach has a moral dimension, it is also meant to keep US workers from competing against countries where goods can be produced more cheaply because the laws are lax. However, after a recent meeting in Washington between President Obama and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos to discuss the trade pact, Santos agreed to improve labor conditions in Colombia. Under the plan brokered by US and Colombian trade officials, Colombia will follow a roadmap to make incremental changes to its labor laws this year including providing greater protections for union leaders, such as shop stewards and bargaining committee members, for workers trying to organize or join a union, and for former union activists who may be threatened because of their past activities. The plan also requires the Colombian government to revise its teacher relocation and protection program to address high risks to teachers, require sentences of up to five years in jail for threats against labor union workers and direct the Colombian National Police to assign 95 full-time judicial police investigators to help in prosecution. US trade officials plan to monitor Colombia's progress on this labor rights action plan to determine when the deal is ready to move forward. US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said there’s “zero” possibility that the three pending free-trade agreements will be bundled into a single bill. However, Republicans in Congress want to consider all three at the same time so that Congress can take them up by July 1. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) led 43 Republicans in vowing to block action on President Obama’s nominees for Commerce Secretary and other trade-related nominees until Congress gets all three agreements. Kirk said his office is discussing with lawmakers when to send the implementing legislation for accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. The deals won’t be sent as a package because no legal precedent exists and combining them into one measure would increase the risk for rejection on procedural grounds, he said. Overall, President Obama is seeking to move forward on a broad trade agenda beyond the free-trade agreements. That includes not only trying to renew expired programs to assist displaced workers - that will likely be used as a carrot to persuade some Democratic voters to pass the three FTAs- but also to provide duty-free preferences to imports from developing countries and prepare for lifting trade restrictions with Russia as that nation seeks to join the World Trade Organization.
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