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The Evening: Erdogan Snub, Afghanistan, Sweet Dreams and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Tuesday, January 8th.


** Erdogan Snub
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced national security adviser John Bolton for comments he made ahead of his arrival in Ankara and refused to meet him on Tuesday, making any agreement between the two NATO partners over a United States withdrawal from Syria increasingly difficult, as the
New York Times’ Carlotta Gall reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/world/middleeast/erdogan-bolton-turkey-syria-kurds.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Russia and Iran Prepare For New Syria Battlefield (http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) ,” by the Institute for the Study of War.

“Iraq, Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, and the Future: The Meaningless Debate over the Trump Strategy in Syria (https://www.csis.org/analysis/iraq-iran-gulf-turkey-and-future-meaningless-debate-over-trump-strategy-syria?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman.


** Afghanistan
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The U.S. military is drafting plans to withdraw a few thousand troops from Afghanistan while continuing all major missions in the longest war in American history, U.S. officials said, three weeks after President Trump sought options for a more drastic pull out, as the
Washington Post’s Dan Lamothe and Josh Dawsey report (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/new-plans-for-afghanistan-would-have-trump-withdrawing-fewer-troops/2019/01/08/ddf2858e-12a0-11e9-a896-f104373c7ffd_story.html?utm_term=.45a44a7081fd&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .


** Trade Negotiations
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The U.S. and China made progress on narrowing their differences on trade issues, especially on purchases of U.S. goods and services and widening access to China’s markets, though the two sides are far from striking a deal, as the
WSJ’s Lingling Wei reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-negotiators-narrow-differences-on-trade-11546959523?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Why Haven't U.S. Exports of Manufactures Kept Pace with China's Growth? (https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-havent-us-exports-manufactures-kept-pace-chinas-growth?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) ” by CFR’s Brad Setser.


** Kim Jong Un's Visit to China
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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un this week made his fourth visit to China, arriving in the country for a three-day stay at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, as CNN reports (https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/07/china/kim-jong-un-visit-china-intl/index.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: “Making Solid Tracks: North Korea’s Railway Connections with China and Russia (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/making-solid-tracks-north-koreas-railway-connections-china-russia/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) ,” by CSIS’s Victor Cha, Joseph Bermudez and Marie DuMond.


** Your Questions
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Do you have any questions about trade and how a changing U.S. trade policy may affect your life? If you do, please email me your question(s) to aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org?subject=Your%20Questions) . We’ll publish some of the best questions and get our experts to answer them on an upcoming CSIS podcast.


** CSIS’s Trade Guys Crash Course
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Now enrolling for CSIS
Crash Course, a one-day seminar on the fundamentals of U.S. international trade policy and politics for trade professionals. This program will be conducted by CSIS experts Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch, known as the Trade Guys from their highly-rated weekly podcast. Information here (https://csis.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaac&id=355ce7485b&e=ac579c85b9&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 36
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The U.S. military conducted 36 airstrikes against terrorist groups in Yemen in 2018.

Source: The Hill (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/424196-central-command-us-conducted-36-strikes-against-al-qaeda-isis-in-yemen-in-2018?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789)


** Critical Quote
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** “Bolton has made a serious mistake and whoever thinks like this has also made a mistake.”
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— Turkish President Erdogan


** iDeas Lab
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https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-policy-roadmap-drive-transform-global-food-and-nutrition-security?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789
Today, over 800 million people go to bed hungry, and billions more have vitamin deficient diets or are obese. Kimberly Flowers, director of CSIS's Humanitarian Agenda and Global Food Security Project, argues for renewed American global food and nutrition security leadership.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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CSIS (Photo credit: ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP/Getty Images). A damaged oil tanker is seen tilting to one side after it caught fire off the coast in southern Hong Kong today.


** Recommended Reading
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“A New Cold War Has Begun (https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/07/a-new-cold-war-has-begun/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) ,” by CNAS’s Robert Kaplan.


** This Town Tomorrow
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At 8:30 a.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/launch-stephenson-ocean-security-project?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) , join CSIS for the launch of the Stephenson Ocean Security Project and hear from expert panels exploring the links between ocean health and global security.

Later, at 3:00 p.m. (https://www.csis.org/events/2019-us-japan-security-seminar-challenges-and-opportunities-alliance?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) , head back to CSIS for the 25th Annual U.S.-Japan Security Seminar: Challenges and Opportunities for the Alliance.

And, at 1:30 p.m. (https://www.ifes.org/events/promoting-american-interests-through-international-disability-rights-recommendations-new?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) , the International Foundation for Electoral Systems and the U.S. International Council on Disabilities will host a panel discussion on how the new Congress can leverage American policy and leadership to promote disability rights worldwide.


** Video
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Talks between U.S. and Chinese trade representatives were originally expected to end Tuesday, but they are now being extended am extra day. Understand the stakes of a modern trade war by watching CSIS’s A 21st Century Trade War here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugO5QKVdKmk&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .


** Podcasts
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https://chinapower.csis.org/podcasts/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789
The ChinaPower Podcast dissects critical issues underpinning China’s emergence as a global power. These extended discussions are hosted by Bonnie S. Glaser, senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS.

Listen on SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/the-slippery-slope-of-us-china-competition-a-conversation-with-wu-xinbo?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) , Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/episode/5HaC5lu6NbY9p0FTZkZWOW?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) , or Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/chinapower/id1144663360?mt=2&ign-mpt=uo%3D4&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) .


** Smiles
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Thanks for your notes about The Departed. In my list of great soundtrack songs, I neglected to name one of the album’s very best tracks: “Sweet Dreams” by Roy Buchanan.

Buchanan was an extraordinarily gifted American bluesman who committed suicide in a Fairfax, Virginia jail cell after being arrested for public intoxication in 1988. I know, not such a smile. But the music Buchanan left behind really is.

At once, beautiful, nuanced, raw and with an almost unique sound, Buchanan’s guitar playing can easily be discussed alongside of the guitar wizardry by Jimi Hendrix, Stevie Ray Vaughan or Jerry Garcia.

Here’s Roy Buchanan performing “Sweet Dreams (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swX9oq6TVAU&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789) ” live on the Austin City Limits show in ’76.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0ac67ec0ec-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_08_03_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0ac67ec0ec-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Emma Colbran and Brad Honigberg.

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