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01/02/2019 10:00 AM EDT

By ZACH MONTELLARO (zmontellaro@politico.com; @ZachMontellaro)


Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
QUICK FIX
- Odd-year Januaries tend to be slow on the campaign front, but we have plenty to watch this month, from more presidential announcements to downballot races that are starting to take shape.

- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) became the most high-profile Democrat to kick off a presidential run. She announced Monday she was forming an exploratory committee.

- We're approaching a hearing on allegations of election fraud in NC-09, but no matter what happens, a new lawmaker will be representing the district in the 116th Congress. Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-N.C.), who lost his primary, said he won't run if a new election is called.

Good Wednesday morning and happy new year! I hope you missed me as much as I missed each and every one of you. Email me your thoughts at zmontellaro@politico.com or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, dstrauss@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, and lbarron-lopez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 307

Days until the 2020 election: 671
THE TOPLINES
So much for a slow January! We may be in an off year, but there's plenty of election news that'll crop up this month. Here's what we're watching.

- Will there be a rush of Democrats announcing their 2020 presidential intentions? Many candidates planned to talk with their families and supporters over the holidays to decide if they'll run for office. This list reportedly includes Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and former Vice President Joe Biden.

- Will there be a new election in NC-09? The race between Republican Mark Harris and Democrat Dan McCready remains uncalled, and the state board of elections has an evidentiary hearing scheduled for Jan. 11. This will drag on for at least a couple more weeks - if not longer (more on this race below).

- 2020 statewide moves have already begun. Sure, the main event next year will be the presidential election. But there are plenty of consequential downballot races, and maneuvering for those contests has already started. In Arizona, several Democrats are mulling challenges to soon-to-be-appointed Sen. Martha McSally. One of them, Rep. Ruben Gallego, told my Campaign Pro colleague James Arkin that he'd make an announcement early in January. To pour fuel on the flame: On New Year's Eve, Gallego tweeted "let's work together - starting in Arizona - and take the Senate. #NewYearsResolutions". You can read between the lines there. Similarly, former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory promised to talk
about his plans "for 2019 and beyond" today on his radio show. And Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said in December he'd let us know soon if he's running again in 2020.

- How long will the government shutdown continue? Sure, it isn't likely to have any actual effect on the 2020 elections. (Remember the two other shutdowns that happened in 2018? No?) But everyone's favorite federal agency - the FEC - is also closed thanks to the shutdown.
IN THE TRENCHES
PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - She's (exploring) running. Warren released a biographical video on Monday announcing she was creating an exploratory committee, with a message focused on the economy, and will soon kick off an Iowa tour. One interesting tidbit from her website: She has a section for voters who don't back her, asking them why. An early concern will be shaking "the ghosts of Hillary": Perceptions she might be cold or aloof. POLITICO's Natasha Korecki: "In interviews with POLITICO, nearly a half-dozen current and former Warren advisers and associates acknowledged the rap on her, even as they dismissed it as little more than D.C. chatter. Any comparison to Clinton will recede, they
said, once Warren hits the campaign trail in early states and weaves her own narrative in front of real voters."

- Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is seeking out a meeting with former President Barack Obama as he considers a run, Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported.

- We're due for a Texas showdown between Beto O'Rourke and former HUD Secretary Julián Castro. POLITICO's David Siders and Nolan D. McCaskill: "[A]ssuming they both run and don't flame out, the presence of the two Texans in the race would test the allegiances of state Democrats in a way that could be a significant factor in the fight for the nomination. Texas will hold its primary relatively early in the 2020 calendar, timing that will likely make the diverse and delegate-rich state a big prize in a competitive contest."

- If former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg does run, he could spent upwards of $100 million on the race. "Mike spent more than $100 million in his last mayor's race. Last time I looked, NYC is a fraction of the size of the country as a whole," Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson told CNBC's Brian Schwartz.

- Biden has carefully spent the past two years laying the groundwork for a potential run by setting up a sprawling network where some of his top advisers have landed while also being mindful of how he makes money. The New York Times' Kevin Sack and Alex Burns: "He has imposed telling restrictions on his moneymaking and fund-raising activities: Mr. Biden does not speak for pay to corporate, advocacy or foreign groups and does not consult or sit on boards, said Bill Russo, his spokesman. ... At least 49 staff or board members of the various Biden entities worked previously as aides or advisers to Mr. Biden, or held other positions in the Obama-Biden administration or campaigns."

NC-09, CONTINUED - The race between Harris and McCready continues, with no immediate end in sight. Over the holidays, national Democrats again signaled they wouldn't seat Harris. "Given the now well-documented election fraud that took place in NC-09, Democrats would object to any attempt by Mr. Harris to be seated on January 3," incoming House Majority Whip Steny Hoyer said in a statement Friday. "In this instance, the integrity of our democratic process outweighs concerns about the seat being vacant at the start of the new Congress."

Everything is in a standstill until that aforementioned Jan. 11 hearing, which is now in limbo. The state board of elections itself has also been cast into turmoil. A panel of judges dissolved the state board of elections on Friday, prompting Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper to say he'll appoint an interim board until the end of the month, The Charlotte Observer's Bruce Henderson, Craig Jarvis and Carli Brosseau reported, while the state Republican party said it wouldn't put forward any names for the interim board. Meanwhile, Pittenger told the Observer's Jim Morrill that he wouldn't run if a new election is called.

CAMPAIGNING IN THE #METOO ERA - Staffers who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) 2016 campaign sent a letter asking to meet with him and top advisers to "discuss the issue of sexual violence and harassment on the 2016 campaign, for the purpose of planning to mitigate the issue in the upcoming presidential cycle," POLITICO's Alex Thompson reported. Sanders' campaign said in a statement that "we always welcome hearing the experiences and views of our former staff."

BIG BUCKS - In the midterms, dozens of super PACs avoided disclosing donors until after elections. And don't expect that to change anytime soon, even with Democrats promising a focus on campaign finance reform. POLITICO's Maggie Severns: "[A]t the moment, there is little discussion of changing super PAC disclosure rules in House Democrats' bill, according to multiple people providing input on it. And even if there were, the bill, which will be known as H.R. 1 in 2019, is already considered dead in the GOP-controlled Senate due to its more political provisions".

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "She's running for president of what?" - A former high school classmate of Harris, when asked what he thought about her potential bid for the White House, to The Toronto Star.

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