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How Romney Could Lose by Winning New Hampshire
John Heilemann says that if Mitt Romney "finishes with less than 31 percent and/or a mere single-digit win, it will be interpreted as a clear disappointment, maybe even as a kind of defeat. Any result that falls in between those poles will be read more ambiguously, though my sense of the over-under at this point is a double-digit win with 36 percent -- a five-point improvement on 2008."

John Cassidy: "For his campaign to take a real hit, I think his share of the vote would have to fall well below thirty-five per cent, and his lead would have to fall to ten points, or less. Even then, that might not be too big a problem if Paul were to be the second place finisher -- Paul isn't a serious threat for the nomination. What would be truly calamitous for Romney would be for his vote share to drop below thirty per cent and for Huntsman to come in second place, with, say, twenty one per cent of the vote."

John Avlon: "So what's the bar of success Team Romney needs to clear? I'd say 32% -- his share of the popular vote in 2008 when he came in second to John McCain... If Romney can't exceed his popular vote count from four years ago in New Hampshire, it will be seen as another sign of his weakness as a front-runner -- a failure to attract new supporters and build his base. Remember, 75% of the primary voters still seem to want someone else despite Romney's organizational edge."


Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com
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