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Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day Jan 23, 2019 View in browser
By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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NEW ... PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP sent SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI a letter, saying he will deliver the State of the Union as planned. The letter

-- REMINDER: The House and Senate need to pass a resolution to allow Trump to do this. Trump can't give a State of the Union in the House chamber without that resolution. He could give one in the Senate or somewhere else on the Hill, but that would look a bit JV.

-- THE WHITE HOUSE STRATEGY: The White House wants to dare Pelosi to uninvite Trump.

MEANWHILE ... HOUSE DEMOCRATS are putting together a proposal for TRUMP, describing what they could support when it comes to border security.

-- SARAH FERRIS and HEATHER CAYGLE: "Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.), whose spending bill is in charge of DHS, spent the weekend working on a bill that will 'reflect the consensus of House Democrats,' one aide said. The bill stands little chance of becoming law in the face of likely GOP opposition, but is seen as 'something to work with' in negotiations with the White House.

"The bill won't include any additional money for Trump's fencing project, but will include more money for other Democratic border security priorities, such as new technology and more staff to stem the flow of illegal drugs through ports of entry." POLITICO

-- SOME MORE DEETS ... WAPO'S ERICA WERNER (@ericawerner): House Majority Whip Jim "Clyburn telling reporters Dems can support Trump's $5.7b figure -- but only for 'smart wall' measures like sensors, drones, refitted ports of entry -- and only if gov't opens first. He's describing letter leaders drafting to trump."

DEPT. OF LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL? ...

-- THIS IS A SHIFT ... Democrats have held firm to the mantra of no negotiations until the government reopens. This is the first time they've been open to discussing specifics of border security with the government shut.

-- THE PATH OUT, AS WE SEE IT ... DEMS put this on paper, and begin to talk to SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.), who is emerging from the shadows and taking part in the shutdown for the first time in weeks. Dems get to something like $5 billion or more in border security -- no wall -- McConnell chews it over, and finds a way for TRUMP to declare victory.

-- THE PRESIDENT has not spoken to PELOSI since he stormed out of a meeting with her two weeks ago, per CNN'S MANU RAJU.

SIREN -- MATTHEW CHOI: "Trump economic adviser says zero percent growth possible due to shutdown": "'Could we get zero growth? I want to nail this down,' CNN's Poppy Harlow asked [Kevin] Hassett. 'Yes. We could, yes,' Hassett responded. 'If [the shutdown] extended for a whole quarter and given the fact that the first quarter tends to be low because of residual seasonality, then you could end up with a number close to zero in the first quarter.'" POLITICO

BLOOMBERG'S JUSTIN SINK, JENNIFER JACOBS, LAURA LITVAN and STEVEN DENNIS: "Trump's Elusive Terms on Border Deal Cloud Path to End Shutdown": "On Tuesday, people close to the president offered two different views of what he might concede in a possible negotiation. One said Trump wouldn't accept any deal that didn't deliver the full $5.7 billion in funding for a border wall that he seeks. Another said he'd be willing to reduce that amount if Democrats come up with concessions of their own.

"The diverging views echo complaints from Democrats, who have said it's impossible to negotiate with Trump because he and his representatives are at odds and make shifting offers that are subject to change at any time." Bloomberg

AXIOS' JONATHAN SWAN: "A 'go big' idea to end the shutdown": "A new immigration idea has been circulating over the past 24 hours at senior levels inside the White House and on Capitol Hill: Give a path to green cards to the 700,000 current DACA recipients, three sources familiar with the conversations tell Axios." Axios

SARAH FERRIS: "House GOP postpones annual retreat over shutdown"

Good Wednesday afternoon.


THE IMPACT ... THE ATLANTIC'S NATASHA BERTRAND: "The Wheels of Justice Are Grinding to a Halt": "FBI agents have lost irreplaceable sources. Joint Terrorism Task Force officers can't get into the bureau's computer systems. Federal investigations are being stymied by a lack of resources. The partial government shutdown, now in its 33rd day, has become a serious national-security threat, the FBI Agents Association said on Tuesday.

"Over the past several weeks, the association has been compiling stories from agents about the the shutdown's impact on the bureau's operations. One agent, speaking anonymously, said his unit had "lost several sources who have worked for months, and years, to penetrate groups and target subjects" due to the inability to pay confidential sources. 'These assets cannot be replaced,' the agent said. 'Serving my country has always been a privilege, but it has never been so hard or thankless.'" The Atlantic

-- KATIE GALIOTO: "Coast Guard's top admiral criticizes 'unacceptable' impact of the shutdown"

AT THE BORDER ... NYT'S JOSE DEL REAL in Calexico, Calif.: "'It's Not a Wall,' but Steel Slats and Barbed Wire Roil a Border Town": "For nearly a year, President Trump has pointed with pride to a renovation project replacing two miles of border fencing in Calexico. He hailed it as 'the start of our Southern Border WALL!' - to the great consternation of many of the town's residents, who are wary of becoming the public face of a hard-line immigration policy that most here do not agree with. ...

"Lost amid the battle over credit and semantics was how Calexico residents themselves felt about becoming characters in Trump-era political theater. For many, a sense of apprehension turned to anger when the military installed barbed wire on top of older border fencing, which runs through downtown." NYT

-- AP'S NOMAAN MERCHANT in McAllen, Texas: "Trump's wall alone unlikely to stop migrant families": "Congress has already funded 33 miles (53 kilometers) of new barrier construction here. But much of that new barrier will be built north of the Rio Grande, which carves a natural boundary between the U.S. and Mexico. That means migrants will still be able to reach American soil in front of the newly constructed barrier and request asylum." AP

HMM ... NYT'S ALEX BURNS: "Biden's Paid Speech Buoyed the G.O.P. in Midwest Battleground": "Joseph R. Biden Jr. swept into Benton Harbor, Mich., three weeks before the November elections ... [H]e was collecting $200,000 from the Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan to address a Republican-leaning audience ... Mr. Biden stunned Democrats and elated Republicans by praising [Rep. Fred] Upton while the lawmaker looked on from the audience. Alluding to Mr. Upton's support for a landmark medical-research law, Mr. Biden called him a champion in the fight against cancer - and 'one of the finest guys I've ever worked with.'

"The remarks quickly appeared in Republican advertising. The local Democratic Party pleaded with Mr. Biden to repair what it saw as a damaging error, to no avail. On Nov. 6, Mr. Upton defeated his Democratic challenger by four and a half percentage points. As Mr. Biden considers a bid for the presidency in 2020, the episode underscores his potential vulnerabilities in a fight for the Democratic nomination and raises questions about his judgment as a party leader." NYT

-- ALSO FROM BURNS ... PRICIER THAN THE ACELA! "The contract for Mr. Biden's visit shows he was paid $200,000 for his appearance, including a $150,000 speaking fee and a $50,000 travel allowance."

NYT'S NICK FANDOS: "Sheila Jackson Lee Leaves 2 Posts After Aide Says She Was Fired for Reporting Sexual Assault": "Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, facing blowback from a lawsuit claiming she fired an aide who said she was sexually assaulted by a supervisor at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, has decided to resign as the foundation's chairwoman on Wednesday. And Ms. Jackson Lee ... will also step down temporarily from an important House Judiciary subcommittee chairmanship." NYT

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- RACHAEL BADE: "House Dems launch investigation into Trump administration's use of security clearances": "House Democratic investigators formally launched a probe on Wednesday into the Trump administration's use of security clearances and temporary or 'interim' security clearances, accusing the White House of playing fast-and-loose with the nation's most guarded secrets.

"Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings laid out several lines of inquiry on the matter in a letter to the White House, specifically naming former national security adviser Michael Flynn and other top officials who he says should have raised red flags. The panel will press the White House to provide Congress with information about how and why it issued some security clearances, which Democrats note is required under federal law." POLITICO

CASH DASH ... WSJ'S JULIE BYKOWICZ: "Liberals Outpaced Conservatives in 'Dark Money' Midterm Spending": "That marked the first time since 2010 that liberal nonprofits outspent conservative ones, according to a report by Issue One, an organization that advocates reducing money in politics. Liberal groups accounted for 54% of the $150 million in dark-money spending in last year's election cycle, conservative groups 31% and nonpartisan or bipartisan groups 15%.

"All told, the report found that nonprofits that don't disclose their donors have invested almost $1 billion in political ads and messaging in the years since the Supreme Court ruling on Citizens United made clear that those interest groups can participate in electoral politics." WSJ

K STREET FILES -- WAPO'S TONY ROMM: "Google led a multimillion-dollar tech industry lobbying blitz in 2018, records show"


HEADS UP -- USA TODAY'S GREGORY KORTE: "Should women be required to register for the draft? Commission likely to recommend big changes": "Should draft registration be mandatory, voluntary or eliminated? Should it target people with specific technical, medical or language skills, in addition to combat capability? And should compulsory service be limited to the military, or should it include other forms of community service?

"The National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service will deliver an interim report Wednesday that hints at the breadth of its charge but gives few clues as to how it's going to resolve the most controversial issues." USA Today

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- CNN'S JEREMY DIAMOND and BORIS SANCHEZ: "Trump expected to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader as nation's president": "President Donald Trump is expected to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela once Guaido takes the oath of office, a move that could take place as early as Wednesday ... The expected move comes nearly two weeks after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was inaugurated for a second term that the U.S., dozens of other countries and the Venezuelan opposition has decried as illegitimate." CNN

WHERE'S THE MONEY? -- From Davos Playbook: "Daniel Lippman reports that a White House official told POLITICO the Trump administration is hard at work trying to get back the taxpayer dollars dropped on Davos hotels, before the Americans' trip was canceled due to the U.S. government shutdown. The official said they hope to get the vast majority of the money back in the next few weeks. It's a lot of cash: Quartz reported in December that the hotel tab for Donald Trump, a number of Cabinet members and other officials (including Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner) had already hit about $2.9 million." POLITICO ... Sign up here

SPOTTED: Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) riding in an UberPool from the House side of Capitol Hill to the DNC on Tuesday.

SPOTTED at Hilary Rosen's house Tuesday night for a party also hosted by Kara Swisher and Tammy Haddad for Jean Case's new book "Be Fearless" ($17.22 on Amazon): Steve Case, José Andrés, Fred Ryan, Walt Mossberg, Bob Barnett, Elisabeth Bumiller, Kris Coratti, Sally Quinn, Tom and Corinne Hoare, Juleanna Glover, Greta Van Susteren, Ryan Williams, Craig Gordon, Ron Klain, Betsy Fischer-Martin, Jeremy and Robyn Bash and Meredith Balenske.

TRANSITIONS -- BUSH ALUMNI: Kristen Silverberg will be the new EVP for policy at Business Roundtable. She most recently was managing director at the Institute of International Finance and is a Bush 43 alum and served as U.S. ambassador to the European Union.

-- Michael McAdams is now national press secretary at the NRCC. He was previously a regional press secretary at the NRSC. ... Cherie Paquette Gillan is now communications director for Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.). She is a Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Fox News alum. ... Scott Parkinson is now VP of government affairs at the Club for Growth. He most recently worked on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' transition team and was his COS in the House.

WEEKEND WEDDING -- OBAMA ALUMNI: Jen Friedman, SVP for public affairs at Blackstone, this weekend married Chris Weideman, head of litigation at Apollo Global Management. The couple, who worked together at Treasury in 2013, married at New York City Hall and then celebrated with family and friends at the Foundry in Long Island City. Pool report: "As one [attendee] revealed in a toast, their relationship first became known to many of their wedding guests after they were SPOTTED in Playbook attending a movie premiere together" in 2013.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- OBAMA ALUMNI: Adam Abrams, partner at Blue Engine + JDA and former Obama WH spokesman, and Sarah Pavlus, director of advocacy solutions at BlueLabs Analytics, on Thursday welcomed Anne (Annie) James Abrams. Pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Amy Howell, executive director of the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School. A trend she thinks deserves more attention: "Not enough attention has been focused on the impact that Millennials and Gen Z had on American politics in 2018 ... While our IOP polling shows that they have more fear than hope about America's future, they are committed to making a tangible difference in their communities and their country. In fact, we have two millennials creating exploratory committees to run for president: Harvard IOP alums Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard." Playbook Plus Q&A

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