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Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day Jan 24, 2019 View in browser
By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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SOMEONE WAS WATCHING SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI'S WEEKLY PRESSER ... PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP (@realDonaldTrump): "Nancy just said she 'just doesn't understand why?' Very simply, without a Wall it all doesn't work. Our Country has a chance to greatly reduce Crime, Human Trafficking, Gangs and Drugs. Should have been done for decades. We will not Cave!"

-- THAT'S NOT WHAT PELOSI SAID ... The only "just doesn't understand" quotes we heard were when Pelosi was referring to COMMERCE SECRETARY WILBUR ROSS' line that he doesn't understand why people are waiting in food lines. "They have Wilbur Ross saying he doesn't understand why when he was asked about people going to food lines and pantries. ... He doesn't understand why people have to do that. Is this the let them eat cake kind of attitude or call your father for money?" ... At the end of her news conference, she said: "They just don't understand why people have to stand in food lines."

OK, THEN ... WHAT THE REST OF THE DAY WILL LOOK LIKE ... THE SENATE is voting on the president's immigration plan and a short-term stopgap bill this afternoon at 2:30 p.m. Both will fail. But we expect that to spark a new phase in trying to end this shutdown.

AFTER THAT ... THE WHITE HOUSE and Republicans will begin considering next steps. The vote will dictate the White House's thinking on how to proceed. It's important to watch which bill gets more votes: the president's plan, or the clean stopgap.

-- AS OF NOW, the only Democrat who has said they would vote for the Republican package is WEST VIRGINIA SEN. JOE MANCHIN. He is going to vote for both bills. ... SENS. CORY GARDNER (R-COLO.), LISA MURKOWSKI (R-ALASKA) and SUSAN COLLINS (R-MAINE) will vote for the Dem-backed proposal. (h/t @FrankThorp and J. Burgess Everett).

GOTTA SAY, there is some optimism in the Capitol that after these fail, this might be the beginning of the end. The only question is how long does the end last!

... BUT, BUT, BUT ... THE PRESIDENT is still doing the "We will not Cave!" thing on Twitter.

THIS ISN'T PALM BEACH, WILBUR ... "Wilbur Ross on federal workers going to food banks: 'I don't really quite understand why,'" by Matthew Choi: "Federal employees have reported going to homeless shelters to find food for their families, but when asked about the desperate measures, Ross replied: 'Well, I know they are, and I don't really quite understand why.' Ross argued with loans backed by the guaranteed back pay, federal workers should be able to find the money to carry them through the shutdown. ...

"But Ross said the shutdown won't be too damaging for the country's image or economy. 'You're talking about 800,000 workers and while I feel sorry for the individuals that have hardship cases, 800,000 workers, if they never got their pay - which is not the case, they will eventually get it, but if they never got it, you're talking about a third of a percent on GDP so it's not like it's a gigantic number overall,' he said." POLITICO

Good Thursday afternoon. THE INVESTIGATIONS ... WSJ'S REBECCA BALLHAUS and DUSTIN VOLZ: "Michael Cohen Subpoenaed to Testify Before Senate Intelligence Committee": "The Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday subpoenaed President Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen to appear before the panel, according to a spokesman for Mr. Cohen, a day after Mr. Cohen postponed testimony before a House committee citing attacks by the president on his family.

"Mr. Cohen is scheduled to testify before the Senate committee in a closed-door session on Feb. 12, a person close to Mr. Cohen said. The subpoena, issued Thursday morning, came a day after the chairmen of the House Oversight and Intelligence committees issued a joint statement saying they expected Mr. Cohen to testify before their panels and that not doing so was 'never an option.'" WSJ

-- ABC'S LUCIEN BRUGGEMAN: "Mueller grand jury could start feeling the pinch of the government shutdown": "Funds have been set aside for the special counsel team's work, allowing the investigation to remain largely unaffected by the shutdown. But even his high-profile probe, insulated by a 'permanent, indefinite appropriation' from the Justice Department, may soon start feeling residual side-effects of the shutdown.

"A spokeswoman for the court said Tuesday that once the court drains its operating budget, grand jurors will continue to be summoned, but payment will be deferred until Congress and President Donald Trump reach a deal to re-open the government." ABC


THE SHUTDOWN IMPACT -- THE ATLANTIC'S NATASHA BERTRAND (@NatashaBertrand): "New--Was just told that FBI internships are being canceled due to the shutdown, which amounts to hundreds of hours of investigative support every week 'just gone.' FBI declined to comment."

-- IAN KULLGREN and REBECCA RAINEY: "Unemployment claims by federal workers skyrocket during shutdown"

-- NYT'S CAMPBELL ROBERTSON in Cleveland: "'We Didn't Get Ph.D.s Just to Sit Around': Civil Servants' Good Will Erodes": "The Civil Service relies to a large degree on good will. No matter how vital high-skilled federal workers are to the functioning of government, there are usually companies willing to offer them much higher salaries - double or even triple in some cases - on top of the free lunches and stock options.

"As student debt soars and private sector opportunities multiply, the sheer allure of public service ... is what keeps a lot of talent in the government. ... Long after the government reopens, this is the damage that could last. If public service loses its allure, it will make it harder to recruit and hold onto the experienced and talented, those who can design spacecraft but also the people who battle epidemics, predict hurricanes and keep the food supply safe." NYT

-- WAPO'S TRACY JAN: "'It's like the real-life Hunger Games in America:' Shutdown threatens HUD's protections for vulnerable": "[A]fter the new year, HUD revealed that not only had the agency allowed 650 contracts to lapse in December - many having expired even before the shutdown began - but more cutbacks in government subsidies for low-income housing are also imminent as the government remains closed.

"Another 525 contracts are slated to expire by the end of next week, and 550 more will lapse in February, according to HUD. With many landlords across the country no longer receiving government payments, HUD has instructed them to dip into their reserves to cover mortgages and other expenses - jeopardizing their budgets and the housing stability of more than 40,000 low-income households, two-thirds of whom are elderly or disabled." WaPo

IMMIGRATION FILES ... "The Stories of Migrants Risking Everything for a Better Life," by TIME's Haley Sweetland Edwards: "[T]he situation on the southern border, however the political battle in Washington plays out, will continue to frustrate this U.S. President, and likely his successors too, and not just because of continuing caravans making their way to the desert southwest.

"Months of reporting by TIME correspondents around the world reveal a stubborn reality: we are living today in a global society increasingly roiled by challenges that can be neither defined nor contained by physical barriers. That goes for climate change, terrorism, pandemics, nascent technologies and cyber-attacks. It also applies to one of the most significant global developments of the past quarter-century: the unprecedented explosion of global migration." Time

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- NAHAL TOOSI: "Benghazi hangs over U.S. decision to leave diplomats in Venezuela": "Some have even warned President Donald Trump that he could face a crisis similar to the 2012 deaths of American diplomats in Benghazi, Libya - a tragedy Trump used to slam his White House rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. ...

"The debate illustrates the complex road ahead in U.S.-Venezuelan relations after the U.S. on Wednesday officially broke with the regime of Nicolás Maduro. Under Maduro's rule, Venezuela's economy has collapsed, and his regime has faced numerous allegations of corruption. But Maduro still has control over the country's security forces." POLITICO

-- NYT'S ANA VANESSA HERRERO and NEIL MACFARQUHAR in Caracas: "Venezuela Military Backs Maduro, as Moscow Warns U.S. Not to Intervene": "The defense minister's declaration was a setback for the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, whose claim to legitimacy has been backed by a number of countries, including the United States. In a further blow to the opposition, Russia warned the United States on Thursday against meddling in Venezuela, a longtime Kremlin ally.

"'Any external intervention is very dangerous,' Dmitri S. Peskov, the spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, told reporters in Moscow. 'We consider the attempt to usurp the top power in Venezuela as going against the foundations and principles of the international law.'" NYT

-- CNN'S JIM SCIUTTO (@jimsciutto): "News: GOP @SenatorRounds just told me he and colleagues will reconsider lifting sanctions of Oleg Deripaska's companies following report the Kremlin ally may be skirting the rules."


FACT CHECK -- WAPO'S GLENN KESSLER: "Ocasio-Cortez's misfired facts on living wage and minimum wage"

WAR REPORT -- "Taliban Agrees to Oppose al Qaeda and Islamic State in Afghanistan," by WSJ's Craig Nelson in Kabul: "In a landmark concession to the U.S., the Taliban has agreed to oppose any attempts by militant groups to use Afghanistan to stage terrorist attacks abroad, a person familiar with the deal said, as talks between the insurgents and American diplomats to end the 17-year Afghan war entered a fourth day in the Gulf state of Qatar.

"Still under discussion in the talks are the withdrawal of some or all of the approximately 14,000 U.S. forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban's main demand, and the future status of American military bases in the country, the person said." WSJ

TRADE WARS -- BLOOMBERG'S BRENDAN MURRAY and ANDREW MAYEDA: "Wilbur Ross Says U.S., China 'Miles and Miles' From Resolving Trade War": "Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to meet next week in Washington with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. 'People shouldn't think that the events of next week are going to be the solution to all of the issues between the United States and China. It's too complicated a topic,' Ross said.

"His comments come with just over five weeks to go before a deadline to conclude a deal. If that doesn't happen, the Trump administration has threatened to raise the tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese good to 25 percent from 10 percent." Bloomberg

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Civil penalties for polluters dropped dramatically in Trump's first two years, analysis shows," by WaPo's Juliet Eilperin and Brady Dennis: "In the two decades before President Trump took office, EPA civil fines averaged more than $500 million a year, when adjusted for inflation. Last year's $72 million in fines was 85 percent below that amount, according to the agency's Enforcement and Compliance History Online database. ...

"The decline in civil penalties could undermine EPA's ability to deter wrongdoing, some former agency officials said, because they help ensure it is more expensive to violate the law than to comply with it. But Trump administration officials have said they are focusing much of their effort on working with companies ahead of time so that they don't run afoul of the law, rather than punishing them after the fact." WaPo

2020 WATCH -- GQ'S JASON ZENGERLE: "The Unfinished Business of Bernie Sanders: He went from the rumpled bit player of the progressive movement to a legit presidential candidate and liberal kingmaker. But now that Sanders wields such enormous power in Democratic politics, the question is, what's he going to do with it?" GQ

-- "Biden on criticism of his praise for GOP lawmaker: 'Bless me, Father, for I have sinned,'" by Rebecca Morin

-- AP'S BILL BARROW in Manchester, N.H.: "Eyeing 2020, Jay Inslee pitches himself as climate candidate"

MEDIAWATCH -- Toluse "Tolu" Olorunnipa is joining the Washington Post. He will work on the White House team, and will transition to campaign coverage. ... Wendy Benjaminson will head Bloomberg's tax team in Washington. She currently is managing editor of McClatchy's Washington bureau.

SPOTTED: John Delaney preparing food for furloughed federal employees with celebrity chef José Andrés on Wednesday. Pic ... Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at Liberty Tavern in Clarendon on Wednesday night.

K STREET FILES -- Truscott Rossman, the Michigan public affairs and political communications firm that Ron Fournier is the president of, is opening an office in Washington, D.C.

TRANSITIONS -- Phillip Morris is joining Locust Street Group as a partner, heading its new strategic comms and insights practice. He previously was VP at Luntz Global Partners. ... Adam Smith, the former political editor of the Tampa Bay Times, is joining Mercury's Miami office as an SVP. ... Kevin Casey is joining S-3 Public Affairs. He previously was policy director for the House Democratic Caucus and former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Pervaiz Shallwani, senior editor and writer at The Daily Beast and a WSJ alum, and Laena McCarthy, CEO of Anarchy in a Jar and co-founder of The Integrated Hustle, on Tuesday welcomed Sufyan Zafar Shallwani. Instapics

-- Joel Miller, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), and Megan Bel Miller, personal office chief of staff for Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), on Saturday welcomed Caroline Frances Miller, who came in at 8 lbs 4 oz, 20-inch. Pic ... Another pic

-- Daniel Rothschild, executive director of GMU's Mercatus Center and an AEI and R Street alum, and Jennifer Rothschild, who works for Arlington County Public Libraries, on Tuesday welcomed Jacob Robert Rothschild, who came in at 7 lbs. 11 oz, 20.75 inches. Pic

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Anna Palmer @apalmerdc

Jake Sherman @JakeSherman

Daniel Lippman @dlippman

Eli Okun @eliokun

Garrett Ross @garrett_ross

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