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LIKE STEINBRENNER v. MARTIN: Robert Gibbs's Kinsley gaffeabout the potential for Republicans to take over the House was an inadvertent and significant political error.

But the resulting conflagration was not primarily about what Gibbs said.

Indeed, the White House and Speaker Pelosi's office are putting out word tonight that there was NO mention of Robert Gibbs during the Speaker's meeting with President Obama today. And Gibbs made sure to pivot right back to the Republican record.

Tensions between the White House and the House have ebbed and flowed, but they've existed ever since the stimulus package ... ever since the House took a tough vote on energy legislation that the Senate didn't reciprocate ... ever since the House put the public option on the line, only to see it taken off the line. The perception that the White House protects the Senate and takes the House for granted is real.

Gibbs has apologized for his mistake; the White House has tried to tamp down the angry words, knowing that public discussion of the kerfluffle makes it harmful where it had just been hurtful. A memo describing the scope of the White House fundraising activities seems to have done little but open the anger vent even wider.

The main reason for Nancy Pelosi's behind-the-scenes thundering at a White House leg affairs staffer is legit: the DCCC and her candidates need big donors and small donors to pony up money to defend their seats. Conceding the possibility of a takeover could cost the committees and candidates millions of dollars. And it will no doubt help Republicans raise a significant amount of money. When Karl Rove stuck to the nostrum that Republicans would definitely keep the House in 2006, it wasn't because he was stupid: it was because he knew that the White House has a formidable signaling capacity to donors and activist facilitators.

Democrats feel they've had the momentum the last four weeks ... with consequent malaprops from Rep. Joe Barton and Rep. John Boehner. They were away for a week and worked their butts off back home, and then Gibbs said what he did and that's what greeted them in Washington.
In the end, this is a Washington problem and compared to most Congress-President relationships, this one is quite strong. But feelings are raw, members' hides are raw, and those raw hides are on the line.

BTW: everyone in the House loves Vice President Biden. He's been their champion, money wise.


Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW
Suite 705
Washington, DC 20007
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com
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