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<p>By Alexander Burns (Twitter: @aburnspolitico) <br />
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<strong>FIRST IN SCORE -- SNYDER DOUBLES DOWN</strong>: Former Gateway executive Rick Snyder is up with a new television spot less than a month before Michigan's Republican gubernatorial primary, emphasizing that he's “the only candidate with a track record of creating jobs.” It's an arresting ad, beginning with a shot of Snyder lifting his head to look into the camera and a narrator saying sternly: “To get back to work, Michigan needs Rick Snyder.” Short lines of text swoosh onto the screen -- “One tough nerd,” “Rick has created thousands of jobs” and more -- as Snyder says: “We need jobs - and a governor who's created them before. I'm Rick Snyder. I'll get the job done.” The ad is debuting on Grand Rapids television and then airing statewide. <br />
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The GOP primary race is a closely matched contest, with polls placing Snyder, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and state Attorney General Mike Cox within a few points of each other (an EPIC-MRA poll in June showed them at 20, 24 and 26 percent, respectively.) Working in Snyder's favor in the home stretch: he has the most straightforward message - and the deepest pockets - of any candidate in the field. Watch the ad here. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/bPYnj3">http://bit.ly/bPYnj3</a> <br />
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As immigration returns to the foreground, David Axelrod returns to Chicago and Tim Pawlenty returns to Iowa, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. <br />
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<strong>TODAY -- MANCHIN SPEAKS</strong>: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin will offer his most direct remarks to date on his plans for filling the late Sen. Robert Byrd's Senate seat. Manchin's office announced that he'll hold a conference call at 11 o'clock, advising: “The governor will not make an appointment during this media availability; however, he plans to discuss the process and answer questions related to the matter.” <br />
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<strong>BREAKING OVERNIGHT -- TOO CLOSE TO CALL</strong>: Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown are effectively tied in the race for governor of California, according to the Field Poll. Brown leads Whitman by a single, statistically negligible percentage point, 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent of voters undecided. The good news for Jerry Brown: Whitman's massive spending advantage hasn't placed her in the lead yet. The good news for Whitman, courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle: “Whitman has trimmed Brown's lead among Latino voters to 11 percentage points, down from 24 points in January, Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. 'He needs to get at least two-thirds of the Latino vote,' said Henry Brady, dean of the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC Berkeley. 'This is not a poll that bodes well for him.'” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/a8av2Z ">http://bit.ly/a8av2Z</a> <br />
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<strong>COMING SOON -- AIR ROMANOFF</strong>: Former Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff will start running television ads for his primary campaign against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, POLITICO's David Catanese reports. The commercials are expected to focus on Romanoff's core message: that money is corrupting Washington, drawing a comparison between the nation's capital and a rigged casino. <br />
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<strong>IMMIGRATION POLITICS -- SUITING UP</strong> -- “GOP Lawmakers, Some Dems Blast Justice Department Suit Against Arizona Law,” CBS News: “The Obama administration is facing harsh backlash from several lawmakers ... after filing suit against the state of Arizona over its controversial immigration law. ... Arizona's Republican Sens. Jon Kyl and John McCain said in a statement today it is 'far too premature' for the administration to challenge the law, since it has yet to be enforced. ... Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell, a freshman representative facing a tough re-election campaign, said in a statement he was 'extremely disappointed' by the administration's decision. ... Mitchell, along with his fellow Arizona Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords, joined Republicans in denouncing the Obama administration's approach to immigration last week.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/ckIxun ">http://bit.ly/ckIxun </a><br />
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<strong>A STAR IS BORN</strong>: Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer issued a new out-of-state endorsement, backing Oklahoma Rep. Mary Fallin's bid for the Republican nomination for governor. “Mary has stood with the people of Arizona and defended our right to enforce our laws and protect our citizens,” said Brewer, who also recently endorsed Karen Handel for governor of Georgia. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/cAISqG ">http://bit.ly/cAISqG</a> <br />
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<strong>AND -- FIGHT NIGHT</strong>: Immigration was front and center in last night's debate between Kansas GOP Senate candidates Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt, as Moran put Tiahrt on the defensive for having previously signaled support for the DREAM Act. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/94W1KX ">http://bit.ly/94W1KX</a></p><p><strong>SPOT THE TREND</strong>: Former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes, the favorite for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination this year, is airing a television ad that bluntly presents his race as a choice between pragmatic, can-do leadership and ideological hijinks in the state Legislature. “It's hard for industry to take us seriously when the Legislature attempts to outlaw stem cell research, passes bills about microchips in the brain, and talks about seceding from the Union,” the narrator says in the ad, before Barnes adds: “We can't bring jobs to Georgia with the rest of the country laughing at us. I'll make Georgia work.” It's the latest iteration of a message pushed by other Democratic gubernatorial candidates -- including Bill White in Texas and Alex Sink in Florida -- framing themselves as over-the-plate technocrats running against over-the-top activists. Watch the Barnes ad here. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/aMqv59 ">http://bit.ly/aMqv59 </a><br />
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<strong>2012 TALKER -- AS GOES IOWA</strong>: Republicans have picked up ground in the first-in-the-nation caucus state's voter registration numbers, Democratic Secretary of State Mike Mauro announced. The Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich has more: “Republicans had big gains, going from 607,567 registered on June 1, 2010 to 644,838. That's a gain of 37,271, according to Mauro's math. Democrats, during the same period, dropped from 710,017 to 699,972, a loss of 10,045. Ouch. Democrats had an over 100,000 advantage over Republicans before the primary. Afterward, their advantage was down to about 55,000.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/cHuDD0 ">http://bit.ly/cHuDD0</a> <br />
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<strong>CUE TIM PAWLENTY</strong>: The Minnesota governor is heading back to Iowa at the end of this month, making a campaign swing through the state from July 31 to August 2 and campaigning for state Reps. Steve Lukan and Jeff Kaufmann, state Senate candidate Bill Dix and state House Minority Leader Kraig Paulsen. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/d2j0hu ">http://bit.ly/d2j0hu</a> <br />
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<strong>IN FLORIDA -- SHOTS FIRED</strong>: The Jim Greer scandal is beginning to leave a deep mark in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary, as former health care executive Rick Scott denounced state Attorney General Bill McCollum and a group of other top Florida Republicans for their close political relationships with the indicted former party chairman. State Sen. John Thrasher, the new Florida GOP chairman, released a stern statement chastising Scott for breaking with senior party members and making “false statements regarding fellow Republicans.” Jabbed Thrasher: “Mr. Scott's repeated attacks on Attorney General McCollum, Dean Cannon and Mike Haridopolos are not based in truth and come straight from Jim Greer's talking points.” <br />
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<strong>AXE FOR ALEXI</strong>: White House senior adviser David Axelrod will headline a July 25 fundraiser in Chicago for Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. The fundraiser comes in the wake of Republican Mark Kirk's announcement that he raised $2.3 million in the second quarter of 2010. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/9NOYXX">http://bit.ly/9NOYXX</a> <br />
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<strong>WORTH THE CLICK -- HOW A DEM RUNS</strong>: House candidate Tommy Sowers, running against Missouri Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, rolled out his first television commercial -- advertising his opposition to bailouts and “bad trade deals” in a spot titled “Combat Bible.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/act7zZ ">http://bit.ly/act7zZ </a><br />
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<strong>CODA -- THE DREAM IS DEAD</strong>: Former Ohio Rep. Jim Traficant's back-from-the-pokey bid for Congress came to an early end this week, when local authorities judged that his filing fell 107 signatures short of the required threshold. Traficant had hoped to challenge Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, a former Traficant aide who took the Congressman's seat after he was sent to prison for corruption. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/dqvPd2 ">http://bit.ly/dqvPd2 </a><br />
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<strong>ALSO DRIVING THE 2010 CONVERSATION</strong> -- with POLITICO's Zachary Abrahamson: <br />
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- Not the story Quinn was hoping for: Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn approved 43 salary increases for members of his staff while preaching a message of fiscal austerity and working to cut $1.4 billion from his state's budget. Democratic state Rep. Jack Franks told the AP that shows “how out of touch [Quinn] is with the real world.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/9Jyaok">http://bit.ly/9Jyaok</a> <br />
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- The plot thickens in Texas: New links emerged between Texas Republicans and the state's Green Party, after an e-mail surfaced from Green Party coordinator Kat Swift saying that a Republican consultant had offered to fund the minor party's candidate petition drive. The Republican named, Anthony Holm, denied involvement. <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/9NM6YA ">http://bit.ly/9NM6YA </a><br />
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- Ohio Dems cry flip-flop: Democrats are hitting Senate candidate Rob Portman for shifting positions on cap and trade energy legislation, wielding a 1996 column Portman wrote calling for “[p]rivate sector incentives, such as permitting companies to trade discharge outputs, [that] can both reduce pollution and costs.” Portman is running a new ad slamming cap and trade as a “job killer.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/9QxqpL ">http://bit.ly/9QxqpL</a> <br />
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- Where's Blumenthal? Linda McMahon's Senate campaign is seizing on an article in the New London Day describing Richard Blumenthal's low campaign profile, declaring that “the candidate has been in absentia.” McMahon spokesman Shawn McMahon accused the attorney general of being “under the impression he can win a Senate seat without ever taking a stance on the issues.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/9A3ESX ">http://bit.ly/9A3ESX </a><br />
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- Long Island exodus: A host of senior advisers to New York congressional candidate Chris Cox have ditched the Republican's campaign, POLITICO's Maggie Haberman reports, including John Weaver, Mark Salter, Fred Davis, Jim McCray, Josh Geleris and Danny Diaz. <a target="_blank" href="http://politi.co/dAj3V4 ">http://politi.co/dAj3V4 </a><br />
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<strong>DESSERT</strong>: Sen. John McCain's campaign has compared challenger J.D. Hayworth to Matthew Lesko, the “Question Mark Man,” for hawking supposedly free government grants in a television commercial. Turns out Lesko has a problem with that comparison. Grumbling about McCain's use of a clip from one of his advertisements, Lesko told the Examiner: I tell you, the guy who [Hayworth] did this with is one of the people I hate. ... These are terrible people in my mind.” <a target="_blank" href="http://bit.ly/dyfMjp ">http://bit.ly/dyfMjp</a></p><br>
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