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11/09/2016 08:18 AM EDT


By Heather Caygle (hcaygle@politico.com or @heatherscope)

ELECTION NIGHT STUNNER: A REPUBLICAN REFERENDUM- Voters handed the GOP an astonishing victory on Tuesday night, clinching the White House and both chambers of Congress for Republicans. In Washington, both parties were stunned by the shocking outcome, with Donald Trump winning the presidency and Republicans overcoming long odds to hang on to their Senate majority and keep House losses to a minimum. Shane Goldmacher and Ben Schreckinger have more on Trump's stunning upset: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36298435304438267cab24c43a73b2ab4976eb0a01a5674b052df655d37a3214

This morning: President Obama called Trump to congratulate him and invite him to the White House Thursday for transition planning. Obama also called Hillary Clinton and "expressed admiration for the strong campaign she waged," according to the White House.

-The RNC's own election model had Trump losing before last night, by Ken Vogel: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36298435304438268ba8738c8b2b36bc540d28b6398a089c7f1542d1abb91176 And "Inside the loss Clinton saw coming," by Edward-Isaac Dovere: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3629843530443826a710f1051e2fac48f068db446abc24b96396655591b6de9d

House Speaker Paul Ryan called Trump's win a "repudiation of the status quo of failed liberal progressive policies." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said "the American people have chosen a new direction for our nation."

THE BIG QUESTION: With Trump coming into the White House, what does that mean for House Speaker Paul Ryan? Pundits like Sean Hannity were openly speculating Tuesday night that Ryan's time as speaker was done given his rocky relationship with Trump over the last several months. But some key Republicans on Capitol Hill were adamant that the nation's top two GOP leaders can reach a détente and work together.

Rachael and Jake with more: Hannity "could rally Republicans against Ryan - and Trump could try to push the speaker out. But, at least in the immediate aftermath of the election, there seemed to be little appetite for that within the GOP conference. 'I don't believe for a second there will be any hard feelings, either way. Mr. Trump is not the kind of person who would look for revenge,' said Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), an early Trump supporter who is also friendly with Ryan." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36298435304438266b92c87a027a71b5489d3956e67648cf0dc0dfccc02b1f39

GLORY DAYS ARE BACK AGAIN (BYE BYE OBAMACARE?)- Republicans beat long (and we mean longggg) odds to hold onto the Senate and are looking at a very favorable GOP map in 2018, meaning they are in a prime spot to plow full speed ahead on their agenda, especially with a "policy-lite" president sitting in the Oval Office. "Tuesday's astonishing victory means everything's on the table for Republicans: Tilting the Supreme Court in a conservative direction for years to come, repealing Obamacare, overhauling the tax code, boosting defense spending, tearing up trade deals and cutting regulations," Bres and Burgess report.

But President-elect Trump will also have to adjust to Washington life: "He's never had to consult with committee chairmen and reluctant junior lawmakers. While Trump will have Vice President-elect Mike Pence and White House staffers to attend to those kinds of things, the incoming president will still have to get used to being a party leader rather than business tycoon." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3629843530443826c5ab560929b5ca93ef790d6ac70e06ef2ca31ae2f17e8b71

TWEET DU JOUR- Deirdre Walsh (@deirdrewalshcnn): "I believe the wall will be coming" GOP Rep Chris Collins says on CNN about first Trump Admin priorities, repealing Obamacare in 1st 100 days

ONWARD, TO THE LAME DUCK- With a Republican coming into the White House, don't expect action on Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland or President Obama's signature trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, this Congress. The one thing lawmakers will have to deal with? Government funding, which expires after Dec. 9. The big question: Will conservative hardliners be more likely to fall in line on a budget deal to get the issue off Trump's plate as he enters the White House? The House and Senate are back next week.

BAD NIGHT FOR HOUSE DEMS- "House Republicans appear likely to limit Democratic gains to the single digits, a far better outcome than they were predicting just weeks ago, and one that gives the GOP a bigger majority than it had after the 2012 elections," Theo reports. More for subscribers: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3629843530443826c08c5bde23c6afcc57ac18495340da61738e2ade97483b19

How Republicans held onto the House: "House Republicans expected to be buoyed by record-breaking fundraising from Speaker Paul Ryan and an emphasis on hyper-local strategy. But combined with the lift from Trump's unexpected win, it was about as good of a night as the House GOP could have imagined. ... 'Nobody wants a one-trick pony, but that's all the DCCC had on any of our guys: Trump,' GOP Rep. Steve Stivers said." Theo and Rachael with the deep dive: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3629843530443826bcbe9ae36dabe12c7fbfc404d7cbeb447332255b4587b4ad

Today: House Republican leaders will hold an early afternoon conference call with their members. House Democrats hold a post-election call with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi at 2 p.m.

House Dem wins: Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter beat Rep. Frank Guinta in the duo's latest rematch; Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist beat Rep. David Jolly; Former House Transportation Chairman John Mica lost to Democratic newcomer Stephanie Murphy; Rep. Scott Garrett, the New Jersey Republican who came under fire for his comments about gay candidates, lost to Josh Gottheimer; Brad Schneider beat Illinois Rep. Bob Dold; and Ruben Kihuen ousted Nevada GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy.

Vulnerable House Republicans hang on: Minnesota Rep. Erik Paulsen, Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman, Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin, California Rep. David Valadao, N.Y. Rep. John Katko, Texas Rep. Will Hurd and Iowa Rep. Rod Blum all won another term Tuesday.

ALRIGHT, WHO'S BUYING THE FIRST ROUND TODAY? Welcome to Wednesday, Nov. 9. Thanks for reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill.

TUESDAY'S MOST CLICKED- The POLITICO guide to watching the election like a pro.

TODAY IN CONGRESS- The House and Senate are both out. But don't worry, they'll be back next week.

AROUND THE HILL- On Capitol Hill today? Relieve a little stress this morning with therapy dogs. Pet Partners and several other animal advocacy groups will be in Cannon 121 from 10:30 a.m.-12 p.m. today with a host of furry friends for you to love on.

DEEP BENCH FOR REPUBLICANS- Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt and Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson are all returning. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte's race was too close to call earlier this morning and might be headed to a recount. Rep. Todd Young from Indiana will also be joining the GOP lineup after he trounced former Sen. Evan Bayh.

Senate breakdown: 51 R-47 D, two undecided seats (New Hampshire and Louisiana)

"To the dismay of Senate Democrats, Clinton chose to present Trump as outside the GOP mainstream instead of a natural outgrowth of the party's trends over the last decade. This gave Republican candidates and incumbents an opportunity to put distance between themselves and Trump, which many gladly did. The Clinton campaign only reversed its position and tried to tie Trump more closely to down-ballot Republicans later in the race. More from Bres: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=36298435304438263d39ff6ea08d4643c86bee5d16a0a6f60c4f513986c912f9

DEMS PICKUP IN ILLINOIS, HOLD ON IN NEVADA- Tammy Duckworth is Illinois' next senator, and Democrats' lone Senate pickup, after trouncing GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. And Catherine Cortez Masto pulled out a win in the Nevada Senate race, beating Rep. Joe Heck to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.

McCONNELL MAKES IT OFFICIAL- Even before most polls had closed Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced he'd been running to lead his party next Congress. The Kentucky Republican isn't expected to face opposition for the top job, Burgess reports.

Schumer's in, too- And, as expected, Sen. Chuck Schumer is officially running as minority leader, making him the first Jewish party leader in the Senate and the first New Yorker to serve as Democratic leader, Burgess and Bres report.

POLITICO'S TRANSITION TRACKER: With the election over, POLITICO has you covered with the latest breaking news in the transition of power in Washington. Stay on top of the latest in personnel hires, appointments and announcements specific to the new administration by signing up for our new mobile product available for iPhone users via Apple Wallet. Download the pass here.

TODAY'S TRIVIA- Stewart with today's question: North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr was successful in winning a third term on Tuesday. Who was the last person to successfully hold the seat for reelection before Burr and in what year? The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in tomorrow's Huddle: hcaygle@politico.com

LOOKING AHEAD: COMMITTEE JOCKEYING- Now that we know Republicans will keep control of the Senate, we have a better idea of who will be leading key committees next Congress. Sen. Mike Crapo is the favorite to take over the Banking Committee since current chairman Richard Shelby has served the maximum six years (under GOP rules) in the top post. Sen. John Barrasso is expected to lead the EPW Committee since current chairman Jim Inhofe is term-limited. Senate Homeland Chairman Ron Johnson and Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr are both expected to keep their top spots after winning reelection.

Democrats will have to fill the ranking member post on the Appropriations Committee with Sen. Barbara Mikulski's retirement. Sen. Patrick Leahy is next in line but could stay on as ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. Sen. Patty Murray is behind Leahy on Appropriations but she could choose to stay in the top Dem spot on the HELP Committee. If that's the case, Sen. Dianne Feinstein is next, but she'd have to give up her vice chairman post on the Senate Intel Committee. Democrats behind Feinstein on Appropriations: Sens. Dick Durbin, Jack Reed and Jon Tester.

On the House side- Reps. Greg Walden and John Shimkus are vying for the House Energy and Commerce gavel. And the House Veterans' Affairs Committee could have a four-way race for chairman-Reps. Doug Lamborn, Gus Bilirakis, Phil Roe and Mike Coffman have all been mentioned as potential candidates. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen is expected to lead the House Appropriations Committee next Congress since current chairman Hal Rogers is term-limited.

NOT SO FAST, MANCHIN SAYS- Sen. Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat up for re-election in 2018 in a GOP-leaning state, quickly shot down rumors Tuesday night that he was considering switching parties and caucusing with Republicans next Congress. From the man himself: "I'm a born in the wool WV Democrat. I don't know where they're getting that crap from," Manchin said, the AP's Erica Werner tweeted.

MONEY WELL SPENT- Kentucky Republicans will control the state's House, Senate and governor's office, a GOP trifecta that the Bluegrass State hasn't seen in nearly a century, reports the Lexington Herald-Leader. "Republicans last led the [House] chamber in 1921. Going into Election Day, the Kentucky House was the only law-making chamber in the South still controlled by Democrats, who held a 53-47 majority," report Jack Brammer and Linda Blackford.

McConnell cheered the news, calling it a "historic win that will soon be felt throughout the Bluegrass State." You'll remember, Huddle reported Monday that McConnell's leadership PAC transferred $150,000 to a super PAC aimed at flipping Kentucky's general assembly.

LAWMAKERS FLOP IN LOUISIANA SENATE RACE- Both Reps. Charles Boustany and John Fleming failed to garner enough votes Tuesday to advance in Louisiana's Senate contest. The Advocate's Mark Ballard: "Though considered a toss-up for weeks, when the votes were counted Tuesday night, the U.S. Senate race narrowed to the two candidates predicted from the very beginning: Republican state Treasurer John N. Kennedy and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell. Kennedy, 64, and Campbell, 69, will meet in the winner-take-all runoff on Dec. 10 to decide who replaces retiring Sen. David Vitter." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3629843530443826e0b5e74a1688ca9786b844062bf2ae25ccb10258ed347389

NO SURPRISE HERE- Nobody, and I mean nobody, came close to winning yesterday's Huddle contest by correctly guessing the outcome of the election. Not one of the entries even had Trump winning the White house.

TUESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER- Stewart Verdery was the first to guess Bobby Richardson was the Yankees second baseman who ran for Congress in 1976 in South Carolina but lost to incumbent Rep. Kenneth Holland.

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