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By Elena Schneider | 03/22/2017 10:00 AM EDT


With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

STATE OF HEALTH - "Trump, GOP leaders lack votes to pass Obamacare repeal," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade, John Bresnahan and Kyle Cheney: "Despite a frantic lobbying effort, President Donald Trump and House GOP leaders are still short of the votes they need to pass their Obamacare replacement bill, just two days before the legislation is set to be taken up on the floor. Conservative hard-liners from the House Freedom Caucus are threatening to derail the legislation, saying revisions announced on Monday night don't go far enough. A handful of moderate Republicans are also balking at the Trump-backed measure. They're worried about damaging themselves politically by voting for a proposal that
will never make it through the Senate." Full story.

MOTIVATIONAL POLLSTERS - "Trump healthcare effort aided by secret GOP poll showing demand for action," by the Washington Examiner's David M. Drucker: "Republican voters want action on health care, strengthening President Trump in negotiations with GOP opponents of the party's bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. To be sure, Republican voters are concerned about the potential shortcomings of the American Health Care Act, say party insiders who have reviewed recent private polling examining the opinions of GOP voters. But above all, these voters want the Affordable Care Act repealed, the surveys of Republicans in battleground states and House districts with upcoming special elections
revealed. ... Republican sentiment is key because conservatives from staunchly GOP House districts have been more aggressive than moderates from swing districts in whipping opposition to the AHCA, a joint proposal of Trump and House GOP leaders." Full story.

- "Trump's penchant for vengeance casts shadow on health care vote," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "...For a president ... who named 'an eye for an eye' as his favorite biblical passage, who banned media outlets from campaign events when he didn't approve of their coverage, who ousted a GOP state chairman after the election whom he viewed as disloyal, who reminded a GOP governor just last week who didn't endorse him that 'I never forget' - the roll call vote on the Republican health care plan, expected Thursday, will be the first accounting of who's with him and who's against him on Capitol Hill." Full story.

- "President Donald Trump arrived on Capitol Hill Tuesday morning with a stern message for Republicans who've been wobbly about dismantling Obamacare: Give me your vote or you may lose your seat in 2018." Full story.

AD WATCH - American Action Network goes on conservative talk radio in 28 districts: The GOP nonprofit, run by allies of House leadership, is airing a 60-second ad targeted at House Freedom Caucus members, encouraging them to back the GOP health care bill. "The Republicans' plan provides more choices and lower costs," an announcer says. "The American Health Care Act is a conservative plan to end Obamacare. President Trump is 100 percent behind these strong conservative reforms." The ad ends with Trump declaring: "This is going to be great for people." View a list of the targeted districts here. Listen to the ad here.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Planned Parenthood promise backlash in ads: Planned Parenthood Action Fund ... is 'watching' the 23 Republican House members in districts Hillary Clinton carried to see how they vote. If they decide to support the bill, Planned Parenthood says it's ready to start sending mailers like this against them.

- Americans for Prosperity promises post-vote ads: The Koch network group, in a statement Tuesday, said it will begin "immediate ramping up of a paid digital campaign thanking" House GOP members who vote against the health care bill.

- The first DSCC ad of 2017-2018 follows a man selling his truck and a woman selling a ring before they meet at the bedside of a sick child at the end of the ad, with the words, "What will the Republican health care bill cost you?" on the screen. The committee says the ad is running on a "targeted digital and TV buy."

- The RNC is spending six figures on digital ads targeting Democrats up in 2018 on Judge Neil Gorsuch's Supreme Court qualifications and repealing Obamacare. The Gorsuch ads say "voters have demanded an up or down vote," while the Obamacare video says "Democrats have made 'affordable' care unaffordable."

Days until the 2017 election: 230.

Days until the 2018 election: 594.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4.

GEARING UP - Messer stirs Senate speculation with statewide finance committee: "Rep. Luke Messer (R-Ind.) announced a statewide finance committee Tuesday morning, a clear step toward a potential challenge against Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in 2018. ... Indiana businessman Greg Pence, the brother of Vice President Pence, will chair Messer's 47-member finance committee. Marty Obst, a top political adviser to Pence who worked for the Trump Inaugural Committee and now works for an outside nonprofit supporting the Trump administration's agenda, is also on the committee." Full story.

- Meanwhile, freshman Indiana GOP Rep. Jim Banks tells Roll Call's Simone Pathe he's not running for Senate in 2018.

MORE MONEY - NRCC raises over $30 million at annual dinner, via POLITICO's Henry C. Jackson: "President Donald Trump helped to raise more than $30 million at a dinner for House Republicans' campaign arm - a record for the event - while pressing the case for GOP unity during a speech Tuesday. Trump hit broad, familiar talking points at the National Building Museum in Washington while arguing that voters wanted Republicans to act boldly after electing him last year." Full story.

CHAMBER CHATTER - Will any Democratic senators earn a nod from the powerful business group in 2018? The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Monday awarded 321 members of Congress for their 2016 voting records - almost all of them Republicans, though several Senate Democrats with tough 2018 elections ahead stuck out. Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) voted with the Chamber 100 percent of the time in 2016 on eight key votes. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) got a score of 88 percent from the Chamber last year. See the full Chamber vote ratings, which will play a role in the group's 2018 endorsement decisions, here.

SPECIAL ELECTION WATCH - "Democrats gripped by special election performance anxiety," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "The race for Georgia's 6th District has suddenly become a focal point, viewed as a chance to send Donald Trump a message by channeling the party's grass-roots rage, energy and frustration into a single contest. But party leaders are growing increasingly frustrated by the nationalization of this race and another in Montana - and worried about unrealistic expectations in Republican-friendly seats where the Democrats are at a decided disadvantage." Full story.

- ON THE OTHER SIDE - "Just weeks ago, [GA-06 Democrat Jon] Ossoff said he had his eye on a runoff spot. Now, he tells The Associated Press, 'the goal is to win outright' in round one." More via AP's Bill Barrow.

- FUNDRAISING WATCH - MoveOn Political Action endorsed Democrat Rob Quist for MT-AL, the group announced in a release Tuesday, opening up the doors for Quist to raise money from MoveOn's email list.

- Also: "The state of Montana filed three liens to collect about $15,000 in back taxes from Democratic congressional candidate Rob Quist and his wife, Bonni. The liens were issued in 2015 and cover the 2007, 2011 and 2012 tax years. He settled the debt with the Department of Revenue last May," The Associated Press reported.

WAY DOWN-BALLOT - Using Trump as foil to boost municipal election turnout: Omaha Democrat Heath Mello's mayoral campaign is sending mailers ahead of the April 4 nonpartisan jungle primary asking voters to "send a message and stand up to Trump" by supporting Mello for mayor. The mailer, which features a picture of Trump holding a doctored executive order complete with text like "out of control ego" and "misguided policies, hurting Omahans," comes with an application for an early-vote ballot. The hope is that using Trump as a bogeyman will spur Democrats to vote in what is expected to be a low-turnout April election. See the mailer here.

MORE ADS - Americans for Responsible Solutions targets Laxalt, Sununu: Americans for Responsible Solutions, the gun control group started by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and her husband Mark Kelly, is out with radio ads in Nevada and New Hampshire targeting two local officials. The New Hampshire spot features a police officer, Bill Barry, attacking GOP Gov. Chris Sununu for signing a law allowing state residents to carry a gun without a permit. "We have to remember that life isn't like the movies and people carrying guns in New Hampshire should be stable, responsible and well trained," he says in the 60-second ad. "Tell Gov. Sununu to stop taking orders from the corporate gun lobby and
start focusing on NH priorities." In Nevada, the group is airing a 60-second ad attacking Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who is expected to run for governor in 2018, for refusing to enforce a gun background check initiative voters passed in 2016. The spot features two women saying that Laxalt refuses to enforce the law, and ends by encouraging residents to call Laxalt's office.

- EDF targets Orange County with new television spot: The Environmental Defense Fund is spending six figures on a new ad attacking the Trump administration's proposed cuts to the EPA's budget. The ad, featuring a man struggling to breathe, outlines the impacts of the cuts in text: "More Asthma attacks. More lead in drinking water. More health problems. More pollution." The ad ends with footage of the crowd at a recent town hall meeting chanting "Do your job." The ad is also airing in Washington, D.C.

STAFFING UP - Renacci rolls out senior staff in Ohio governor bid: Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Getting political analysis from Joe Piscopo is probably less valuable than getting comedy analysis from me." - New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, on Piscopo considering a run for New Jersey governor as an independent. POLITICO New Jersey explained why it would be an uphill run, if Piscopo goes through with it.

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