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The Evening CSIS: North Korea’s Warning, Turkey’s Referendum, Crow’s Latest and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Monday, April 17.


** North Korea Weekly Missile Tests
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North Korean vice foreign minister, Han Song-Ryol, told the BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39623882?ocid=socialflow_twitter&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) that Pyongyang will continue to test missiles on a “weekly, monthly and yearly basis” and that if the US were to take military action an “all-out war” would result.

The AP’s Edith Lederer reports (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-north-korea-nuclear-war-20170417-story.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) that North Korea’s deputy UN ambassador accused the United States today of turning the Korean peninsula into “the world’s biggest hotspot” and creating “a dangerous situation in which a thermonuclear war may break out at any moment.”

And, as the New York Times’ Jane Perlez reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/world/asia/trump-north-korea-nuclear-us-talks.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) , Vice President Mike Pence warned North Korea today while visiting South Korea not to test American resolve, but he also raised the possibility that the Trump administration could pursue talks.

Plus, see the Times’ Max Fisher on “The North Korea Paradox: Why There Are No Good Options (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-missiles-sanctions.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .”

Another important piece from the Times worth revisiting is David Sanger and William Broad’s March 4 “Trump Inherits a Secret Cyberwar Against North Korean Missiles (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fwilliam-j.-broad&action=click&contentCollection=undefined®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=7&pgtype=collection&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) ,” in which Sanger and Broad describe the Obama administration’s search for a way to sabotage North Korean missiles under the rubric of “left of launch.”

Dive Deeper: See CSIS’s “Beyond Parallel” micro-website for its latest prediction, “Uptick in Likelihood of North Korean WMD Activity (http://beyondparallel.csis.org/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) ,” which indicates there is a 58% likelihood of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) activity taking place in the next 14 days. In the next 30 days, there is an 84% chance for North Korean WMD activity.

And see the Korea Institute at SAIS’s “38 North (http://38north.org/2017/04/punggyeri041217/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) ” for satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site.


** Turkish Referendum
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A defiant Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan denounced the West’s “crusader mentality” today after European monitors criticized a referendum to grant him sweeping new powers, which he won with a narrow victory laying bare the nation’s divisions, as Reuters’ Gulsen Solaker and Daren Butler report (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-politics-idUSKBN17J0PY?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .

And the Washington Post’s Jennifer Amur reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/16/heres-why-turkish-opposition-parties-are-contesting-the-referendum-results/?utm_term=.aa06781845ac&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) on “Why Turkish opposition parties are contesting the referendum results.”

Dive Deeper: See CFR’s Steven A. Cook’s “RIP Turkey, 1921-2017 (http://www.cfr.org/turkey/rip-turkey-1921---2017/p39049?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .”


** Venezuela on the Brink
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Images of protesters in Caracas running through clouds of tear gas and bloodied by state security forces have been front and center in recent media coverage of Venezuela. Other cities around the country also have been hit hard by police, national guard troops and the regime’s paramilitary forces as the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro tries to contain a wildfire of rebellion, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/hungry-venezuelans-demand-change-1492366586?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .

Dive Deeper: See a report published today by CSIS’s Katherine Bliss: Meeting Basic Health Needs in a Venezuela in Crisis (https://www.csis.org/analysis/meeting-basic-health-needs-venezuela-crisis?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .


** In That Number
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** 51.4%
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The percentage of Turkish voters who voted in favor of the constitutional referendum. Source: CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/17/europe/turkey-referendum-results-erdogan/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .


** Critical Quote
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** “While most of the major constitutional changes will not come into effect until after the 2019 elections, Erdogan will confront the prospect of deeper domestic polarization and greater external criticism over growing authoritarianism before then.”
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—CSIS’s Bulent Aliriza on the impact of Turkey’s referendum.


** iDeas Lab
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Missile Threat (https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) , an interactive website from CSIS’s Missile Defense Project, is an authoritative source of information and analysis about ballistic and cruise missiles around the globe and the systems designed to defend against them. This graph shows how North Korean missile testing has changed since Kim Il-Sung.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.


** Optics
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(Photo Credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images.)
Deputy UN Ambassador Kim In Ryong of North Korea speaks to the media today in New York.


** Recommended Reading
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“War, Terrorism, and the Christian Exodus from the Middle East (http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/war-terrorism-and-the-christian-exodus-from-the-middle-east?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) ,” by Robin Wright for the
New Yorker.


** This Town Tomorrow
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Join CSIS’s Freeman Chair in China Studies at 3:00 p.m. for abook forum on The Souls of China: The Return of Religion after Mao (https://www.csis.org/events/book-forum-ian-johnsons-souls-china-return-religion-after-mao?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) , by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Ian Johnson.

Join the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center at 12:00 p.m. for the report launch of Reform of the Global Energy Architecture (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/the-atlantic-council-task-force-on-reform-of-the-global-energy-architecture?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .

And join Georgetown University’s Institute for Global History and the Mortara Center for International Studies at 5:30 p.m. for “The Deepwater Golden Triangle: The Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and West Africa in the Global Oil Economy (http://guevents.georgetown.edu/event/the_deepwater_golden_triangle_the_gulf_of_mexico_brazil_and_west_africa_in_the_global_oil_economy_with_tyler_priest?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789#.WPUieGnytpg) .”


** On Demand
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Last month, CSIS’s Japan Chair hosted the 2017 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar (https://www.csis.org/events/2017-us-japan-security-seminar?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) , featuring a discussion on the U.S.-Japan alliance and the new U.S. administration.


** Sounds
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The latest from CSIS’s Take as Directed podcast analyzes the outcomes of Consortium of Universities for Global Health’s (CUGH) 8th Annual Global Health Conference last week. You can listen on iTunes (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/take-as-directed/id1186398300?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) or SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/outcomes-from-cughs-8th-annual-global-health-conference-with-dean-patricia-davidson?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) .


** Smiles
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Sheryl Crow always makes me smile. She writes catchy songs and always puts together terrific bands to perform with. Her new single “Be Myself” is no exception. It comes out Friday along with her 10th album.

Major artists like Crow are doing all kinds of innovative things to promote their music in the digital age. Today, Crow released a performance of “Be Myself (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TInDNjbI_W0&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789) ” as a preview of an upcoming concert special.
I invite you to email me at aschwartz@csis.org (mailto:aschwartz@csis.org) and follow me on twitter @handrewschwartz (https://twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=47eeb1307f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-47eeb1307f-145367789)

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The Evening CSIS is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Brandon Schwartz, and Jackie Ramsay.

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