EMAIL DETAILS

By Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider | 03/29/2017 10:00 AM EDT


With Bianca Padró Ocasio

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

DECISION TIME - The Supreme Court nomination of Neil Gorsuch is shaping up to be the first major test of the 10 Democratic senators running for reelection in states President Donald Trump won. Here's where they stand, as of Tuesday night. The five senators from states Trump won by single digits - Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Bill Nelson of Florida and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania - have announced their opposition to Gorsuch and said they won't vote for cloture. Five others in states Trump won by more than 10 points, including Montana Sen. Jon Tester, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Missouri Sen. Claire
McCaskill and Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly, haven't announced their positions.

- And the NRA is pressuring four of them: "The National Rifle Association is spending $1 million to pressure four vulnerable Senate Democrats to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. The group is targeting Donnelly, Heitkamp, Tester and McCaskill with television ads. All four are up for reelection in 2018 in states easily won by Republican President Donald Trump and all four are still undecided on whether to support Gorsuch's elevation to the the court." Watch the Indiana ad here, the Missouri ad here, the North Dakota ad here and the Montana ad here. Full story.

- But Gorsuch's margin of non-nuclear error is shrinking: "Gorsuch needs a straight flush to beat filibuster," by Elana Schor: "Gorsuch would have to carry all five of those fence-sitters to overcome a Democratic filibuster - plus his home-state Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Maine independent Sen. Angus King, and another more surprising senator. ... 'Any Democratic senator who doesn't filibuster Gorsuch hurts not only their own standing, but makes the entire party look weak - dampening enthusiasm among the grass roots and swing voters Democrats need to fire up in 2018,' PCCC spokeswoman Kait Sweeney said in a statement." Full story.

- Heitkamp has been a particular target. The North Dakotan has long said she supports an up-or-down vote on Supreme Court nominees, but is still steamed about how Republicans treated Merrick Garland, Obama's nominee for the seat. "Senate Republicans now say politics should never play a role in Supreme Court nominees - I agree - however they refused to extend that same courtesy last year when they didn't give Judge Garland such fair treatment, and instead broke historical precedent, forcing his nomination to languish for almost 300 days," she said in a statement.

- "How Bill Nelson shook up the Gorsuch confirmation fight," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Nelson's position had been closely watched. As a Senate indicator species - he's an institutional centrist with a history of allowing Supreme Court picks to get a full vote - his stance on Gorsuch stood to provide insight into the political calculus of other Trump-state Senate Democrats who, like him, will be up for reelection in 2018. ... Pam Keith, a 2016 U.S. Senate candidate also mulling a bid against Nelson, said in a text message exchange that 'Nelson VERY much is feeling the pressure, as are many Dems in D.C. ... 'I have real concerns with his thinking on protecting the right to vote and
allowing unlimited money in political campaigns,' Nelson said.'" Full story.

- And Nelson might face a new challenger. GOP Rep. Tom Rooney put the following statement out through his House office: "Today, Florida Sen. Bill Nelson stated that he will vote no on Judge Neil Gorsuch's confirmation. I am extremely disappointed, though utterly unsurprised, that Sen. Nelson would put political posturing above the needs of the American people. Ten years ago, not a single Democratic senator opposed Neil Gorsuch's confirmation for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit, including Sen. Nelson. Nelson has not provided any substantive concerns or misgivings as to why he supported Gorsuch in the past but will not vote to confirm now. Nelson is hypocritically putting his
own wants and needs above objectively considering a Judge who has shown nothing but full capability to serve on the Supreme Court. He should be ashamed of himself and I hope Florida voters replace him next year in the 2018 election."

CAMPAIGN FINANCE-LAND - "Trump serves as rocket fuel for Democratic fundraising," by Gabriel Debenedetti and Scott Bland: "A POLITICO analysis of new federal disclosures suggests many Democratic Senate incumbents - particularly those who have been most outspoken in their resistance to Trump - are on a trajectory to raise more money online than ever before in a non-election year. That could help level the fundraising playing field at a time when Republicans are poised to reap the financial rewards of holding all the levers of power in Washington. While comprehensive campaign finance data for both parties in the first quarter of 2017 won't be released until next month, February figures
reported to the Federal Election Commission by ActBlue, the left-leaning online fundraising platform, suggests both members of Congress and many progressive groups are harnessing the energy of town halls and marches and translating it into a surge of online fundraising well in advance of the 2018 election season. ... In February alone - and just online - Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, a top GOP target in 2018, brought in over $212,000 in donations of under $200 through ActBlue. That's over four times as much as she raised in small donations across all platforms - online or through more traditional fundraising means - in the first quarter of 2011, the comparable period in her last
reelection campaign." Insert link here.

- "Adam Putnam facing questions about spending in expected run for governor," by the Tampa Bay Times' Mary Ellen Klas: "Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam has raised more than $9.4 million for a 2018 governor's race he has yet to announce and, in the last two years, spent $1.8 million of it on a Lakeland-based political consulting firm that has failed to disclose how the expenses were paid. ... Nearly $1.3 million went for the purpose of political consulting, according to the reports, but how much of that were checks written to vendors, pollsters, fundraisers, advertisers, opposition researchers, media interests and others? His report doesn't say, raising legal issues about whether the
report is in compliance with state campaign finance law and federal tax law." Full story.

Days until the 2017 election: 223.

Days until the 2018 election: 587.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com and dstrauss@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4.

LINES OF ATTACK - DSCC hitting Flake, Heller on internet privacy: The DSCC is using Google search ads to attack GOP Sens. Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona after the House voted Tuesday to revoke broadband privacy rules issued by the Obama administration. The Senate passed the resolution last week. The committee is also fundraising on the issue. "While everyone was focused on the health care vote, Senate Republicans passed one of their sneakiest pieces of legislation yet: They voted to let internet companies sell your internet history and browsing information - without your permission," the cash-seeking email missive reads. "One of our top targets in 2018, Sen. Jeff Flake, was
behind this creepy effort - and he led every single GOP senator to pass this bill - while every Senate Democrat voted against it.

CIVIL WAR WATCH, GOP EDITION - "2018 Dilemma for Republicans: Which Way Now on Obamacare?" by The New York Times' Jonathan Martin: "As they come to terms with their humiliating failure to undo the Affordable Care Act, Republicans eyeing next year's congressional campaign are grappling with a new dilemma: Do they risk depressing their conservative base by abandoning the repeal effort or anger a broader set of voters by reviving a deeply unpopular bill even closer to the midterm elections? The question is particularly acute in the House, where the Republican majority could be at risk in 2018 if the party's voters are demoralized, and Democratic activists, energized by the chance to send a
message to President Trump, stream to the polls. ... 'If people are looking at a situation where there's no action on this, there are going to be conversations about primaries,' warned Michael A. Needham, the chief executive of Heritage Action for America, The Heritage Foundation's political arm, which worked to scuttle the Republican health bill last week. ... 'I think we need to start negotiating with Democrats instead of the Freedom Caucus,' said a frustrated [NRCC Chair Steve] Stivers, referring to the most conservative bloc of House Republicans. 'They don't know how to get to yes.'" Full story.

CIVIL WAR WATCH, DEMS EDITION - "Embattled DNC Asks All Staffers For Resignation Letters," by NBC News' Alex Seitz-Wald: "Party staff routinely see major turnover with a new boss and they had been alerted to expect such a move. However, the mass resignation letters will give Perez a chance to completely remake the DNC's headquarters from scratch. Staffing had already reached unusual lows following a round of post-election layoffs in December. Immediately after Perez's selection as party chairman in late February, an adviser to outgoing DNC Interim Chair Donna Brazile, Leah Daughtry, asked every employee to submit a letter of resignation dated April 15, according to multiple sources familiar
with the party's internal workings. ... Major staffing and organizational changes will be announced in coming weeks, one aide said." Full story.

AD WARS HEATING UP - Rauner touts budget in RGA nonprofit-sponsored TV ads: "State Solutions, the RGA-affiliated nonprofit group, released its first television ads of 2018 featuring Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner touting his plans for the state budget and reinforcing his claim as a Springfield outsider ahead of a challenging reelection campaign next year." Full story.

- Club for Growth attacks Handel in Georgia special: "The Club for Growth is attacking former GOP Secretary of State Karen Handel in the special election to replace former Rep. Tom Price in Georgia's 6th District. ... The Club is backing Bob Gray, a technology executive and Johns Creek City Council member, in the special election. Democrat Jon Ossoff is expected to advance out of the April 18 runoff, while four Republicans are battling for the second slot. Handel, who previously ran for Senate and governor, is the best-known candidate in the GOP field." Watch the ad here. Full story.

- Moody nabs Perdue endorsement in Georgia House special: "Republican Sen. David Perdue waded into the Georgia special election to replace HHS Secretary Tom Price by endorsing former state Sen. Dan Moody in a new TV ad released today. The ad, on which Moody's campaign will spend more than $360,000 for the week, is running on broadcast and cable stations throughout the district." Watch the ad here. Full story.

EARLY POLLING DATA - 'Don't know' leads among New Jersey governor's race, via POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman: "When it comes to selecting a replacement for [Gov. Chris] Christie, the most popular choice is "don't know." In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, which is a little more than two months away, front-runner Phil Murphy has 23 percent support, according to the FDU poll. None of the other candidates tested got above 4 percent. Fifty-three percent of Democrats said they don't know whom they support. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno has 24 percent support to Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli's 5 percent. Dana Wefer, a Democrat-turned-Republican who announced a run for
governor and aborted it weeks later, came in third at 2 percent, above Nutley Township Commissioner Steve Rogers and actor Joe Rullo, each of whom got 1 percent. Atlantic County native Hirsh Singh, who finished second at the Atlantic County Republican convention on Saturday, got no support in the FDU poll." Full story.

- Perriello, Northam tied in Virginia primary: "A new poll from Christopher Newport University has Virginia Democrats Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam tied in the state's gubernatorial primary, with each receiving 26 percent of the vote and a 45 percent plurality undecided. The same poll has former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie leading the GOP field with 38 percent of the vote, besting Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart with 11 percent and state Sen. Frank Wagner with 10 percent." Full story.

AND LATE VOTER FILE DATA - "A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn't the Driver of Clinton's Defeat," by The Upshot's Nate Cohn: "[I]t is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. ... It's clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Overall, almost 1 in 4 of President Obama's 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate. This analysis compares official voter files - data not available until months after the election - with The Upshot's pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina." Full
story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump gives Chuck the silent treatment," by Shane Goldmacher and Burgess Everett: "President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the most powerful Democrat in Washington, have yet to meet one-on-one or even speak on the phone in private since Trump took the oath of office more than two months ago. ... On Tuesday night, the president will host the minority leader and other senators at the White House. The silence is an abrupt turnabout from their regular banter last November and December when the two outer-borough dealmakers - both of whom perfected the art of self-promotion in New York's tabloids - spoke roughly a half-dozen times and engaged
in happy talk of working together." Full story.

- "Trump signs order to end 'crushing attack' of Obama climate legacy," by Alex Guillen: "The executive order Trump signed represents his biggest blow yet to former President Barack Obama's climate legacy. But it does not go as far as some conservatives would like to dismantle the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gases, nor will it begin to separate the U.S. from a landmark international climate accord - two areas of intense disagreement within the administration. 'My administration is putting an end to the war on coal,' Trump told an audience at the EPA headquarters signing, where he was joined by a group of coal miners whom he promised would be put back to work quickly." Full story.

DOWNBALLOT

Attorneys General: Reuters reports the Republican Attorneys General Association is breaking a long-standing truce with its Democratic equivalent and will start going after Democratic incumbents in 2018.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If the president puts Russian salad dressing on his salad tonight, somehow that's a Russian connection." - White House press secretary Sean Spicer, attempting to downplay accusations the Trump campaign colluded with Russia.

To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=95686d559b4a998ca6cf18ee952a645ece14e358b47316b724f4985be9a1c4b60e9e0f725fc083858787a3c46a495d9d
To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=95686d559b4a998c933a34354b4ab8f56dd79cde57f694ef9a4466d9db3d02279dd62b223a88a663930f2c4c078513a5 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=c1c81b2ef644fde1dd3c1f6178ef6a8ea3ee660992025bd49ec8d7c8817b6c6799477e02b6c17621ffdbd95dc42a7cd4c1dc78ec7fcf87fa
This email was sent to Hbiden@rosemontseneca.com by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA


To unsubscribe,http://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=0000015b-1a5f-d837-a35b-bf5f90580000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=c187471f5197627e298a452a340062ba22d1db31ccd1a18a82a42ca3c26d95da0ccb7ca2b31937721e2cd75e4233d69dc8df1706709978fb74d112cf3a3ad1e9