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By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, aburns@politico.com)


2012 MUST-READ - SCHALE DRAWS THE MAP: Florida and Colorado are likely to be the two most competitive battlegrounds in 2012, according to a new analysis by Democratic strategist Steve Schale that shows the two states almost unbelievably evenly split on the presidential level for the last two decades. Schale, who directed President Barack Obama's Florida campaign in 2008, writes that of all the so-called swing states, these are the two that have been balanced most consistently on a knife's edge: "Since 1992 in Florida, some 30.7 million two-party votes have been cast for President, with the Democratic candidate winning 15,395,501 votes and the Republican candidate winning 15,338,047 votes. The margin over five cycles: 57,454 (closer than the 06 Governor's race). In percentage terms, that rounds to a mere 0.19% edge for the Democrats--well inside the margin of a recount. Obviously if you add in the Perot and Nader votes, it is even closer. But Colorado was even closer, where during the past five Presidentials, Colorado voters have given the Democratic candidates a narrow 16,090 vote margin over the Republican candidates out of the 8.6 million votes cast, for a margin of 0.18%." http://bit.ly/gxNRDG


MORE - 'TOSS-UP' - Democrats have to hope that Schale is right, because Florida was an ugly state for the party in 2010 - even in the context of a national GOP wave. While Republicans won every statewide office and gained House and state legislative seats there last year, Schale argues Florida will "absolutely" be a "toss-up" in 2012: "[T]he state's Presidential election make-up is vastly different than its Gubernatorial election make-up. ... In fact, if you look at the five Presidential elections since 1992, when Florida first joined the ranks of the highly competitive, the record is essentially 2-2-1. Both parties have a 5-6 point win (Dems 96, GOP 04), both have a 2-3 point win (Dems 08, GOP 92) and we all know what happened in 2000, some of us more acutely than others." Read on: http://bit.ly/gxNRDG


As John Boehner picks a favorite, Deval Patrick plants his feet and Evansville's mayor advances in a different direction, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.


OBAMA PREPARES - OUTSIDE MAN? White House press secretary Robert Gibbs may soon leave the Obama administration to "work on Obama's 2012 reelection campaign and act as a media surrogate for the president," POLITICO's Glenn Thrush reports. Thrush: "Gibbs had discussed staying at the White House, possibly as a senior adviser, with interim chief of staff Pete Rouse and Obama himself, but they concluded he could best serve the president from the outside - as an occasional cable TV commentator and as a political adviser unconstrained by the demands of briefing the press or the responsibilities of serving as a central member of Obama's kitchen cabinet present at most major policy decisions." http://politi.co/gEem1J


POPPING IN IOWA - JUMPING THE GUN: The Iowa-based Faith and Freedom Coalition is pushing for an earlier-than-expected start to the 2012 campaign, inviting 12 potential Republican presidential candidates to a forum on March 7. The guest list includes all the usual suspects, plus former Godfather's Pizza CEO and tea party activist Herman Cain. More from the Des Moines Register's Tom Beaumont: "The event, at Point of Grace church in Waukee, is being billed as the first such group gathering of 2012 prospects in Iowa, expected to host the leadoff presidential caucuses in a little more than a year. The forum is not a debate, but will afford prospective presidential candidates a chance to make a speech to conservative activists. There is no question and answer session planned for those GOP hopefuls who attend." http://bit.ly/fgyhu7


EARLY-STATE SIREN - NECK AND NECK: Tea party favorite Jack Kimball and John Sununu endorsee Juliana Bergeron are in a too-close-to-call race to lead the New Hampshire Republican Party, according to a canvass of the state committee conducted by NH Journal: "Bergeron has 58 votes committed to her at this time. Kimball has 57. The analysis includes publicly announced endorsements plus the results of NH Journal's exclusive phone canvass of committee members. ... Our phone canvass shows a good deal of unannounced support for Kimball among members of the committee. ... There are 493 total voters on the committee, so there remain more than enough undecided voters to change the tide." http://bit.ly/gwG13V


*** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org today.THE RNC RACE - BOEHNER FOR CINO - House almost-Speaker John Boehner is working to drum up support for Maria Cino's bid to lead the Republican National Committee, CNN's Peter Hamby reports: "According to two RNC members, incoming House Speaker John Boehner has made phone calls to committee members on behalf of Maria Cino, the former Bush administration official and longtime GOP operative. ... A spokesman for Boehner did not return a call seeking comment." One state chairman told POLTIICO's Jonathan Martin: "He put in a plug for Cino [but] not a hard push." http://bit.ly/dSAAm8 and http://politi.co/hQeBh8


2012 POLLING WRAP - HUCK'S CASE: PPP's Tom Jensen has crowned the former Arkansas governor the strongest presidential prospect among the four nationally known GOP contenders - Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich and Romney: "In nine swing states where we've polled since November (Virginia, Montana, North Carolina, Missouri, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida) Huckabee has trailed Obama by an average of 2 points. In those same places Gingrich has trailed by an average of 7 points and Palin by an average of 11 points. Huckabee is massively more viable in a general election than these two. ... Romney has actually done a little better than Huckabee in these early swing state polls, trailing Obama by an average of just 1 point. ... There's a large difference in how much enthusiasm there is for Huckabee and Romney with the GOP base though." http://bit.ly/hO4suA


MORE - PAWLENTY/THUNE LOVE: "Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and Gingrich's problem isn't that they're unknown. They've all been in the national spotlight before and they all had at least 75% name recognition on our most recent national poll. Their problem is that folks do know them- and they don't like them. ... So the GOP's going to be best served by a fresh face." http://bit.ly/hO4suA


SPEAKING OF FRESH FACES - THE (UN)DECIDER- A day after Rep. Mike Pence's Indiana-centric campaign schedule drove speculation that he's planning to forgo a presidential bid to run for governor, POLITICO's Kasie Hunt reports Pence is headed to the early primary state of South Carolina: "Dozens of prominent conservatives are scheduled to gather this weekend at the swanky Sanctuary Hotel resort on Kiawah Island in South Carolina, where Indiana Republican Rep. Mike Pence will keynote the invitation-only Awakening Conference's annual black tie dinner. ... The conference-which in previous years has been held at the exclusive golf resort known as The Cloisters in Sea Island, Ga.-is an invitation-only gathering of conservative pols, thinkers and activists." http://politi.co/eeIl9r


MEANWHILE, BACK IN INDIANA: Democrats may be close to getting their first candidate for governor, following Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel's announcement that he won't run for reelection. Thomas Langhorne at the Courier and Press: "Touting a lengthy list of what he called the accomplishments of his first seven years as mayor, Weinzapfel said the time has come for him to take on new challenges -- but he said it is too early to make a decision about a gubernatorial campaign. ... Weinzapfel declined to provide a timetable for his decision other than to acknowledge that any candidate for governor in 2012 'should probably be made sooner rather than later.'" Courier and Press reporter @ericbradner tweets: "In other words: It's a safe bet that Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel will become a Democratic candidate for Indiana governor in 2012." http://bit.ly/eb3DrB and http://bit.ly/gem5NL


ONE MORE - THE SENATE RACE - "Tea Party leaders not swayed by Lugar meeting" - Hamby: "Hoping to head off a primary challenge from the right, Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Indiana, sat down with Tea Party leaders last month but did little to persuade them of his conservative credentials. The two-hour meeting, which took place over breakfast on Dec. 13th at a Marriott in downtown Indianapolis, was described by participants on both sides as 'cordial,' but the Tea Party activists left vowing to oppose Lugar's bid for a seventh term. ... Mark Hayes, a spokesman for Lugar, was in the room and acknowledged that 'not everybody is going to agree with everything' the senator has done in his long career." http://bit.ly/dPYSDl


THE RUBIO TEAM - YOU DO OR WILL KNOW THEIR NAMES: Florida's national candidate-in-waiting rolled out eight top hires for his Senate office Tuesday, stacking his staff with well-heeled political operatives and veterans of his own campaign. The list, via the Orlando Sentinel: "Sally Canfield - Chief Policy Advisor & Legislative Director ... In the 2000 campaign, she served as domestic policy advisor to then-Governor George W. Bush and in the 2008 campaign cycle, she served as policy director to Governor Mitt Romney. ... Leonard Collins - General Counsel: Collins previously served as a senior attorney in the Florida Department of Transportation's Office of the General Counsel. ... Todd Reid - State Director: Reid previously served as deputy chief of staff to Florida House of Representatives Speaker Dean Cannon. ... Joe Pounder - Communications Director: Pounder previously worked on Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate ... He also served as director of rapid response for John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, director of rapid response for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign ... Alex Burgos - Director of Media Affairs: Burgos previously served as communications director on Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate [and] director of specialty media on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign ... Bexie Nobles - Director of Scheduling & Executive Assistant: Nobles previously served in the Washington office of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX) ... Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign and Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign. ... Theresa Young - Administrative Director: Ms. Young will continue in this role, which she served in under former U.S. Senators Mel Martinez (R-FL) and George LeMieux (R-FL) ... Luke Marchant - Special Assistant: Marchant served as political director on Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate." http://bit.ly/g2CoUm


GOING NOWHERE: Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick insisted Tuesday that he'll serve out the new four-year term he won in November, again ruling out a challenge to Sen. Scott Brown or - for now - an appointment to the Cabinet: "The Democrat told The Associated Press on Tuesday he will complete his term no matter what other opportunities may be offered him. His strong re-election performance in November has prompted talk of Patrick challenging Republican Sen. Scott Brown for re-election in 2012." No Massachusetts governor has served two full terms since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991. http://bit.ly/dWfh4i


CHICAGO WATCH - "Emanuel stays on Feb. 22 Chicago mayoral ballot" - The Sun-Times: "In a ruling issued early Tuesday afternoon, Cook County Circuit Judge Mark Ballard upheld an earlier 3-0 ruling by the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners that Emanuel, despite having lived in Washington, D.C., for the past two years to serve as President Obama's chief of staff, is eligible to run. ... Burt Odelson, the attorney who went to court seeking to oust Emanuel from the ballot, said he will immediately appeal Tuesday's ruling to the Ilinois Appellate Court. And whatever ruling that court makes is certain to be appealed to the Illinois Supreme Court." http://bit.ly/fsfWzG


CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Whatever they do in Texas, we're going to do better." - Florida Gov. Rick Scott, summing it all up in his inauguration-day comments on tort reform http://bit.ly/fhkxjx


*** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

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