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By Elena Schneider | 04/22/2016 10:00 AM EDT


With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

FIRST INCUMBENT LOSS ON THE HORIZON? - "Two incumbents face danger in Pennsylvania primaries," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "Two House incumbents accused of ethical transgressions face primary challengers in Pennsylvania next Tuesday. But that's about where the similarities between Rep. Chaka Fattah's troubles and Rep. Bill Shuster's end. Fattah, a Democrat and Congressional Black Caucus member who represents a deep-blue Philadelphia district, was indicted last summer on corruption charges ... Shuster, a Republican who represents the same conservative, rural seat once held by his father, has caught flak for dating an airline lobbyist while chairing the House Transportation Committee.
... Republicans are generally optimistic about Shuster's odds on Tuesday. But even Fattah admits he's in for a tough fight. For all the volatility in the GOP right now, it's the Democrat who could become the first congressional incumbent of 2016 to lose a primary. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f00514a47ffa9603108a56e6d027257b5ef4385f1f0ed6601

DEM SENATE RACE A TOSSUP - Public polling ... : Former Rep. Joe Sestak leads his Democratic primary rival Katie McGinty in a new Franklin & Marshall poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race, with 38 percent of likely Democratic primary voters backing Sestak and 29 percent backing McGinty. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f087996a3637236f563ef9cde4b4d59d5808b36b8ec9c395a

... Internal polling: "An internal poll from Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty's campaign shows her with a slender advantage over former Rep. Joe Sestak, 37 percent to 34 percent, in the Senate primary. Braddock Mayor John Fetterman gets 13 percent of Democrats' votes and 16 percent are undecided in the Garin-Hart-Yang survey, which was obtained by Campaign Pro." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f4359488f9b64cdf745ebafdf510ccaf86786a88357b63a6e

- MORE MONEY, MORE ... ADS - The pro-Sestak super PAC, Accountable Leadership, has booked over $600,000 in ads for the final week of the race, fueled by money that poured in after the DSCC began spending heavily on McGinty's behalf. The DSCC has upped its buy well beyond its initial $1.1 million investment for the closing stages of a tight race.

Days until the Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island primary: 4. Days until the 2016 election: 199.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com and tmeyer@politico.com.

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Prince: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, and @theodoricmeyer.

BIG BETS - In Maryland ... "EMILY's List's super PAC, WOMEN VOTE!, is putting another $500,000 behind a last-minute television ad buy to boost Rep. Donna Edwards in her Democratic Senate primary, according to a statement from the group. The ad will air in Baltimore, Salisbury and Washington, D.C. markets, starting today and running through the Maryland primary on April 26, helping pro-Edwards forces come closer to the better-funded Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the race's final days." The move comes despite a new Monmouth poll showing Van Hollen with a double digit lead, suggesting the race may be closer than the latest numbers show. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f73b6f25dd23149fe73035ce1359db6e5a860a165ec76e19c

- In NE-02 ... "The DCCC is starting a $437,000 TV ad buy in Omaha, Neb. Friday, in its first major advertising expense of the 2016 election cycle. The House Democratic campaign committee is spending about $378,000 on broadcast and $59,000 on cable for 12 days, according to two sources tracking the ad buy, running until Nebraska's May 10 primary. Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford, who represents Omaha, is one of the party's most endangered incumbents in 2016." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51fa53bccaf59820a2c62b17f355014f9db5f17535f4b1a373a

HARRY REID BETS BIG TO PRESERVE HIS LEGACY - While Harry Reid might not be on the Nevada ballot in 2016, his presence looms as large as ever over his state's elections. The latest installment of POLITICO Magazine's "What Works" series explores how the retiring U.S. Senate Minority Leader is working hard to preserve his own legacy by running the table of key races in Nevada possibly helping Democrats to recapture the Senate majority. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f4f07ae83170bae1c713767b63cf453b098097a67ba397d07

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

SEE IT TO BELIEVE IT - Republican Mike Pape, who's running to replace his former boss, retiring Rep. Ed Whitfield in Kentucky's 1st District, released an ad showing three men posing as Mexicans trying to illegally cross the border to "stop Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, too and señor Mike Pape." One of the actors asks, "Who?" And the other responds, "Mike Pape." [Briefly confuses the last name for "tape."] "The conservative running for Congress who will help Trump build the wall!" The ad ends with the three men cutting through the chain link fence and running away, as Pape speaks directly to the camera, saying, "I'm Mike Pape and I approve this message because no one will stop me from
standing up for you." Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report tweeted, "Ads like this one from an R candidate in Kentucky are why the GOP's demographic death spiral is real." Watch "Stop" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51ff38e1631c39f2ca2204ec95dc76a88695b716242e3bd5a31

GRAHAM PAC FINDS NEW LIFE - "Pro-Lindsey Graham super PAC to spend in other races," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f13dfeba3e64455f9ec1b0747e4829bf0411f2003a9191a28

FIRST IN SCORE - EMILY's List expanding the map: The abortion rights group is adding three more Republican incumbents to its "on notice" list of "incumbent Republicans at all levels of government who will be held accountable for their anti-woman, anti-family records in the 2016 elections," according to a statement from the group that will be released today. Colorado's Rep. Scott Tipton, Minnesota's Rep. Erik Paulsen and Montana's Rep. Ryan Zinke are being added. They're all in Republican-leaning seats that are more likely to be up for grabs if Donald Trump as the GOP frontrunner.

CHARM OFFENSIVE - "Donald Trump's Team Courts Members of Congress," by The New York Times' Alan Rappeport and Ashley Parker: "Donald J. Trump's campaign continued its outreach to Congress on Thursday, promising that the Republican candidate would become more presidential and organized as he lurches closer to the nomination. Representative Chris Collins, one of Mr. Trump's congressional co-chairmen, and Ed Brookover, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump, met with a group of about 10 members of Congress in Washington to provide an update on the coming state voting contests and help lawmakers who are up for re-election become more comfortable with the candidate."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f8c3761072d3430fd7271f24a9608d69b43a199b27dc3a95d

LISTS STAY SECRET - "Koch-linked group scores legal victory over California AG," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "A federal judge in Los Angeles has again shut down California Attorney General Kamala Harris' drive to obtain the donor list for Americans for Prosperity, an influential political group funded by Charles and David Koch. U.S. District Court Judge Manuel Real issued a permanent injunction Thursday barring Harris' office from requiring AFP to submit the donor list. And AFP may not be considered deficient or delinquent in its filings because it won't turn over the form, the judge said." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f52668869890e68774f0efceba95ff1ddec0a196464343b88

WEB OF ADS - In Pennsylvania ... The NRSC released a new web ad Thursday that mimics the NFL draft, scheduled the same week as the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. "Much like sports commentators highlight attributes of top draft picks, the NRSC News commentators emphasize headline-grabbing flaws from all three candidates, including Katie McGinty's trips through the revolving door, Joe Sestak's claim that 'ISIS is running out of gas' and John Fetterman's failure to file his financial disclosure on time," according to a statement from the committee. Watch the video here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f7bfac6f34a80522783fffe198dbe4ad35b19b317793a3aeb

- In Illinois ... Republican Sen. Mark Kirk's campaign will launch a web ad today that goes after Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth. "When Rod Blagojevich was under investigation," the ad says, "accused of denying veterans jobs so he could hire his cronies, this is what Tammy Duckworth said ... " followed by a the sound of crickets. Watch "Blago and Tammy" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51fc21eca2567e11939def82e728834bcc748e75b537ee494c0

- KIRK, on why he won't be at the GOP convention: "I've got to really do my hair that week. Make sure that my hair is just perfect." Via BuzzFeed: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f67ed58afcf284ad95a014d3944405c964ed6a94b99dd525e

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "RNC leaders reject bid to rewrite convention rules," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt in Hollywood, Fla.: "The Republican National Committee on Thursday voted down a controversial proposal that would have dramatically changed the rules for this summer's convention. The proposal, which was sponsored by Solomon Yue, a RNC committeeman from Oregon, was intended to further empower the convention's delegates - injecting the convention, Yue argued, with a degree of transparency at a time of unprecedented scrutiny into the party's internal procedures. The vote bitterly divided the party, pitting a small group eager to advance the proposal against RNC Chairman Reince Priebus
and his allies, who warned that implementing the change would further inflame Donald Trump, who has accused the committee of overseeing a "rigged" process that's stacked against him. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f552fb4ce49095009b771db137fca6acc31d4d9904e54b02a

- "GOP veepstakes begin: Candidates start building lists and vetting prospects," by The Washington Post's Robert Costa and Philip Rucker: "As the Republican presidential race heads toward a possible contested convention, the three remaining candidates have begun considering vice-presidential picks ... Advisers to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Ohio Gov. John Kasich said they are developing a list of prospects and researching their backgrounds. They are leaving open the possibility of announcing running mates as early as June, when primary voting concludes, or waiting until July at the Republican National Convention. Front-runner Donald Trump said he is giving the choice of a running mate
serious thought, but his campaign is holding off on vetting candidates until the nomination battle is over. 'I would not choose a vice president unless I know I have won,' Trump said in a recent interview." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f57aa13a94c375778c319aceef23bea63272fcc7b879bf943

- "Sanders supporters suffer through stages of grief," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: "Bernie Sanders' supporters are experiencing the five stages of grief after a devastating 16-point loss in New York Tuesday night, a drubbing that greatly narrowed the Vermont senator's path moving forward. After holding out hope, some are beginning to accept the disheartening notion that the Vermont senator is now unlikely to win the party's nomination." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f3e0ec5d75c49c25727c58b85a2c329e0fce3c0f93f53150d

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There's no magic formula this year. It's kind of like computer dating gone bad." - GOP strategist Ed Rollins, on the presidential race, via the Washington Post. Sure, computer dating. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=139baec14a66b51f7cce09ecaa17858c1de0e73f4e79af67f4086dfbcc49b9a4

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: News, opinions, and entertainment surround us 24/7, yet a fundamental truth remains, whether for competitive races or impactful ballot measures, the TV commercial reigns as the medium for reaching potential voters. TV helps strongly at the margins. Television is also the easiest way to reach undecided voters. Those passive folks who don't show up at the rallies or ask for email updates, but will be there to pull the levers on Election Day. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, one of the largest and most diversified television broadcasting companies in the country, we combine TV with targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad
solutions, to help your messaging break through the noise. Winning is what matters. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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