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Dear all,
Greetings from Washington Deluxe bus to NYC.
This is my personal view - please note I may be biased:
The leftish party will probably win the elections of Jan 25th, however they do not seem to have a strong enough lead to secure the government on their own. So a coalition government should be formed, headed by either the leftish or, if they fail to do so, by Nea Dimokraria. This type of government will be fragile and can't follow a partisan political view but a consensus. So I expect no Tse or Fidel or Tsavez or what have you type radical changes (e.g., a grexit or hard default). If we agree to that, the real threat is that coalitions may change frequently, so new governments may be formed also frequently (without necessarily new elections) leading to a period of weak or no governance. This will affect our plans since decisions will stall.
I do not believe that the EC/ECB/IMF will also let that happen, so I believe a broad coalition government could be expected that will do nothing more than to perform minimum required reforms to keep Greece on track but with a more growth and socially sensitive agenda, if possible.
As for the train, I believe that any new government will want to give it to us (investors trust now Greece type of political marketing) and any new opposition will say that we pay too low! My only concern is with the infrastructure projects that are EC funded and with any new clauses that may arise concerning keeping too many employees.
On the other hand if the current government pushes the procedure to win points in the elections that is bad news to me, since we will draw too much attention. Nevertheless we will not put any funds even if we win the tender before the new government is in office, so I guess we can always retreat if things go bad.
My best wishes for a happy new year and let us keep this discussion alive.
V

Sent from my iPhone

> On 30 Δεκ 2014, at 10:22, "Slattery, Jim" <JSlattery@wileyrein.com> wrote:
>
> David...Thanks for the update. I agree. Greece is starting to compete with Ukraine for the country with the greatest upside coupled with the most chaotic political environment. Curious what Paris, Michael and Vassilis think is likely to happen in Greece on the political front in the next 90 days. Happy New Year to all.....Jim Slattery
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: David C. Wittig [mailto:davidwittig@me.com]
> Sent: Monday, December 29, 2014 5:47 PM
> To: Hunter Biden; Ed McKechnie
> Cc: Slattery, Jim; Paris Kokorotsikos; Vassilis Sotiropoulos; Davis C. Wittig; Michael A. Karloutsos
> Subject:
>
> Gentlemen,
> The election for a President in Greece was lost by the incumbent party and new elections will be held on January 25, 2015.
> From a practical standpoint, this means that anything to do with the government will come to a halt.
> For us, this means another delay in the privatization of Trainose. I will attempt to get a sense on timing, but my guess is that we are looking at a one or two month delay.
> The only risk that I see is the re-opening of the bidding. The best way to avoid this is to have our bid ready to go and our group well defined.
> I am going to Bucharest to meet with the Romanians on January 13th. I want to outline exactly the roles and financial commitments that are expected from each party. I plan to discuss with them the role of the Chinese. I have also had preliminary conversations with the Qatari’s, who are very interested in commercial real estate development, which could fit nicely with the need to build a full logistics network.
> We should plan on meeting the 20th (I recall this was when Ed arrives in Athens). I suggest everyone stay at the Grand Bretagne. It is a block from the office. Your other choice is the Hilton.
> I am available anytime for a call if necessary.
> Happy New Year.
> David
>
>
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