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04/11/2016 08:25 AM EDT


By Rachael Bade (Rbade@politico.com or @RachaelMBade)

DEEP DIVE - "Past cases suggest Hillary won't be indicted." It's not exactly the headline Republicans want to read, but my colleague Josh Gerstein, a longtime courts and legal reporter, personally reviewed dozens of federal investigations on mishandling of classified records. His takeaway? That it's "highly unlikely - but not impossible" that Clinton would be charged with breaking the law: "The examination, which included cases spanning the past two decades, found some with parallels to Clinton's use of a private server for her emails, but - in nearly all instances that were prosecuted - aggravating circumstances that don't appear to be present in Clinton's case."

"The relatively few cases that drew prosecution almost always involved a deliberate intent to violate classification rules as well as some add-on element: An FBI agent who took home highly sensitive agency records while having an affair with a Chinese agent; a Boeing engineer who brought home 2000 classified documents and whose travel to Israel raised suspicions; a National Security Agency official who removed boxes of classified documents and also lied on a job application form." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc9bd786dae9be9799c64372585ddc105361e7b5845c497a5f

- 'Hillary would beat him from jail.' That's what one of the leaders of the stop-Trump movement, Republican operative Tim Miller, told Glenn Thrush for his "Off Message" podcast, regarding a Clinton-v.-Trump matchup. Read, listen, follow: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc301eeff93ab59d130c6ee02db782847f9b7249c6f278e7c5

- Defender-In-Chief: Obama says Clinton didn't damage national security. Reuters with the read, ICYMI Sunday: "Obama said ... Clinton never jeopardized national security in the handling of her emails as his secretary of state. Obama, in an interview broadcast on Fox News Sunday, said Clinton has recognized a carelessness on the email issue in which she used a private server for government business. 'But I also think it is important to keep this in perspective,' Obama said. 'This is somebody who has served her country for four years as secretary of state, and did an outstanding job.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dcfd0bb493da48b16e9bf80eba38a036c1912d6cf1e46865a1

INSIDE OBAMA'S SUPREME COURT CHARM OFFENSIVE. President Barack Obama has made it a point to personally reach out to at least eight Senate Republicans, hoping to score a sympathetic ear - Jeff Flake, Lindsey Graham, Orrin Hatch constitute just three. But much good it's done him... Seung Min Kim on how he's falling flat in those efforts: "Since the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February, Obama has pressed Senate Republicans in numerous private conversations to fill the empty slot on the nation's most influential court, warning that a lengthy holdup could damage the judiciary. But Obama's personal outreach has yielded little in the way of results. Republicans are more resolute than ever
when it comes to Merrick Garland. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's blockade is easily holding - even the two GOP senators who had merely entertained a confirmation hearing have since changed their minds." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc1c1be4a2bd83c0f11b8fc9ac0fa1164eb187fc0e21ab9fe8

'MIRAGE CANDIDATE' - Paul Ryan's parallel campaign. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, Paul Ryan, who is just trying to steer Republican policy and priorities and has zero interest in the White House... Or does he? The New York Times' Jennifer Steinhauer on the Ryan "campaign." "As the Republican candidates for the White House battled in Wisconsin last week, Speaker Paul D. Ryan was conspicuously absent from his home state - but he was very much on the political stage. He visited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel... before heading to other Middle Eastern nations and Germany to discuss security and intelligence issues. Back in Washington, his staff churned out its
latest flattering video of Mr. Ryan, deploring identity politics and promoting a battle of ideas - set to campaign-style music..."

"Mr. Ryan is indeed at the center of a national campaign - one he calls 'Confident America' - but it is not necessarily for president. While Mr. Ryan has repeatedly said that he has no intention of becoming his party's nominee this year, he is already deep into his own parallel national operation to counter Donald J. Trump and help House and Senate candidates navigate the political headwinds that Mr. Trump would generate as the party's standard-bearer - or, for that matter, Senator Ted Cruz, who is only slightly more popular... He is shaping an agenda that he plans to roll out right before the convention, a supplement of sorts to the official party platform. He gives regular speeches on
politics and policy - particularly on poverty and economic issues - then backs them up in the news media." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc1ac69ce0036693ee33c91811bf06ed3f74e89bde9f607fc5

WELCOME TO MONDAY. It's April 11, 2016, and you're reading Huddle, your daily inbox round-up of all things Congress. I'll be your host all week, so send your comments and stories here for a flag: rbade@politico.com, or @RachaelMBade

TODAY IN CONGRESS. The Senate returns and votes at 5:30 p.m. on the confirmation of Waverly Crenshaw to be U.S. district judge for the middle district of Tennessee. House is back tomorrow from the two-week break.

LAST CONFIRMATION? - "Senate poised to vote on judicial nominee for Tennessee." The AP's Mary Clare Jalonick. "Amid the election-year fight over filling the vacancy on the Supreme Court, the Senate is moving ahead on the nomination of Waverly Crenshaw to be U.S. district judge for the Middle District of Tennessee, a position that has been vacant since December 2014. The court has declared a 'judicial emergency' because of the number of pending cases there...Crenshaw has the support of Tennessee's Republican senators, Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker..."

"Crenshaw's expected confirmation may be among the last in Obama's presidency. In recent decades, the Senate has slowed - and gradually stopped - its approval of judges nominated by a president of the opposing party in the later months of a president's final year in office. Twenty-seven of Obama's nominees to district courts and five to the appeals court remain in limbo." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc62e1759b8a824b67f9455e58a83d131315dadec13a01e5c6


** A message from Grant Thornton LLP: As business owners prepare for their tax filing deadline, many will ask, "Did I pay more than my competitors?" For a number of businesses, the answer is YES. Visit http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dcd5af441ade9187b0dc097c9c8ded76685e99fca40e222090 for a tax policy that treats all businesses fairly. **

SENATOR GOP EYEING HOUSE ON BUDGET. Alexander Bolton reports for The Hill: "GOP senators say they will only move a budget if the House passes one and privately acknowledge that few think the lower chamber can do that. 'We're watching the House and what they can do. If they can do it then I'm confident that we'll be voting on one too,' said Senate Republican Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas)... Another Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said the Senate GOP conference is waiting to see if House Republicans can overcome their internal divisions to pass a budget." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc80e3b36cdcadd0704723ad89ae5aaefc73eb73b13c4c83f2

ROGERS MINDMELD - "Cuts to job training, vet care stoke anger in 2016." The one, the only David Rogers traces middle-income America's anger at Washington D.C., back to the wonky appropriations process: "In searching for meaning in this year's elections, a lot can be learned by looking at two budget numbers: medical care for veterans and job training for displaced and low-skilled workers. Each is some measure of how Washington cares for the casualties of its decisions, whether in war or trade. And each poses its own Catch-22 that helps explain the alienation many working-class voters are now showing toward their government."

"In the case of veterans, there's a huge disparity between how their medical care is budgeted vs. how the government financed the wars in which the same men and women were wounded. In the past 15 years, Congress has approved more than $1.5 trillion in emergency or 'contingency' appropriations for war-related costs in Iraq and Afghanistan... But medical services under the Department of Veterans Affairs are classified as 'non-defense' spending - subject to statutory budget caps... The result is to pit veterans care against other domestic needs..." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc4b5f3876dad1096fbe093422a3c0ef473262fc1171cd5215

TOP BENGHAZI DEMOCRAT BACKS CLINTON. Just a few months ago, Elijah Cummings led the charge defending the Democratic frontrunner in what ultimately became the hearing-of-the-year, picking off Republican accusations one by one as Clinton sat before Trey Gowdy's (R-S.C.) Benghazi panel. Now, the Maryland Democrat is at her side on the campaign trail: Cummings endorsed Clinton for president Sunday - a move that is likely to further seep the panel known for constant bickering into a partisan mudsling. Now more than ever, and with the Benghazi report due out in a matter of weeks, Cummings will play a key role protecting his candidate from any damaging tidbits or accusations that could surface in
the committee's final days.

Just a few months ago, when Gowdy took to the trail to stump for Marco Rubio, your Huddle author wrote that Democrats were seizing on his move, arguing it casts his probe in a partisan light. (Though, to be fair, several Dems on the panel had already thrown their weight behind Clinton...) Now that Rubio - and therefore, Gowdy - is out of race, Cummings finds himself the panel member closest to the campaign trail. He told reporters he wanted to wait to endorse until after the House Benghazi panel finished its probe, but has since unclicked that pause button because the investigation is taking so long: "I've tried to work with the committee, but we've just seen this delay, delay, delay by the
Republicans trying to stretch this thing out," he said. Read the news: "Elijah Cummings endorses Hillary Clinton in Maryland." Hannah Fraser-Chanpong for CBS New: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dc1759deb29f9652b29d81a7c19484e5756b62da7c2cbaa259

TOP SPOTIFY PLAYLISTS OF CAPITOL HILL. Spotify asked Capitol Hill's music junkies for their playlists. Of course, Queen's "Under Pressure" topped Speaker Ryan's, and now Spotify has copies of Sen. Cory Booker's and Mike Lee's playlists as well as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's "running list," Rep. John Conyer's "jams" and Rep. Will Hurd's "deep tracks." View them here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dcc730d0eb563a7160979e74a30dc80a00792bf804aef53e39 (H/t Dan Lippman)

PEACING OUT. Sen. Richard Blumenthal's (D-Conn.)communications director Josh Zembik tweeted Friday: "Some personal news: After almost 3 years, today is my last day with @SenBlumenthal. This spring, I'm going to take my talents to Chicago." (H/t Twitter watchdog Burgess)

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER: Joe Bookman was the first to answer that Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders have voted, combined, three times this year. #What_Senate_job?

TODAY'S TRIVIA: Comes from our winner: When was the last time the Republican National convention was in Cleveland - and who was the nominee? Email me: rbade@politico.com

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** A message from Grant Thornton LLP: Since 2013, pass-through owners have faced a potentially higher tax rate (39.6%) on their business income than their C corporation competitors (35%). This rate disparity puts pass-throughs at a competitive disadvantage and hinders U.S. investment, job creation and economic growth. In an ideal world, the same tax rates would apply to all business income, regardless of its form.

Visit http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fa6d3d3844c711dcd5af441ade9187b0dc097c9c8ded76685e99fca40e222090 for a tax policy that treats businesses fairly.

(c) 2016 Grant Thornton LLP | All rights reserved | U.S. member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd **

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