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This was always the Bill Oldaker theory and it slightly worries me even if I
don't see the math.

Will the Senate
Flip?<http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/18/will_the_senate_flip.html>"Since
1930, party control of the House has flipped seven times. And each time,
Senate control has also switched," Chris
Cillizza<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/17/AR2010101702872.html>
observes.

"The reason is simple: Wave elections are, well, wave-y. If the voting
public wants to send a message to the majority party, it tends to send it
across the board, not just in a single chamber."

Republicans need to turn 10 Democratic seats to take control and the Wall
Street Journal<http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/10/18/wholl-win-the-senate-a-quick-crib-sheet/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fwashwire%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+Washington+Wire%29>
notes
the GOP "clearly leads in Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana, Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin. That's five."

"Republicans would have to find the other five among these eight states:
Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, Connecticut, California, Washington, Delaware
and West Virginia."
--
Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
eschwerin@rosemontseneca.co