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The Note: Off To An Early Start
By MICHAEL FALCONE and AMY WALTER

Oct. 15, 2010

EARLY LINE ON EARLY VOTING. No need to wait until Nov. 2 -- 36 states
are participating in some form of early voting this year and we're
already seeing the results. In Iowa, for example, 119,430 early votes
have been cast so far, according to the Iowa Secretary of State's
Office. That represents 13 percent of the total number of votes cast
in 2006. Of this first batch, 42.1 percent were registered Democrats,
28.9 percent registered Republicans and 28.9 percent independents.
"I'm just blown away by these numbers, given everything we've been
told about the enthusiasm gap," George Mason University political
science Professor Michael McDonald said in an interview with ABC News.
McDonald, an expert in voting statistics and trends, said he's also
seen some positive signs for Democrats in certain Ohio counties. "I
don't know what the heck to make out of what we're seeing out of Iowa
and Ohio," he said. "I feel like I'm in 2008, it's like deja vu all
over again." If this is a national phenomenon, Professor McDonald said
it would really start kicking in this weekend when more states open up
early voting locations, but he cautioned that it was too early to tell
exactly what it all means. For example, Iowa's Democratic Gov. Chet
Culver is still is bad shape against his Republican challenger, former
Gov. Terry Branstad. That's not likely to change, but early voters
could potentially help Democrats in some tight House races in the
Hawkeye State.

Then again, Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro noted another trend:
"Democrats lead in ballot requests, with 115,017 compared to 92,128
from Republicans -- but that margin is narrower than in previous
elections. Some 42,178 ballots have been requested by voters who
didn't declare a party preference," according to a dispatch from Des
Moines by the Associated Press. "Democrats acknowledge their early
voting lead is smaller than in previous years, but claimed their
effort was better targeted on voters who are less likely to show up on
Election Day." http://bit.ly/dehSUs