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2pm pull update...
Turnout is surprisingly high for this point in the day, especially in D
areas. Some parts of Sussex are very high, as expected, not high enough
though to tip the whole state. But virtually every part of city of
Wilmington is higher than expected, too. Many of the most Democratic EDs in
the state (1st, 2nd and 3rd RDs) are on track with 2pm numbers, if not even
higher. Many boots on the ground in city -- there are 300 canvassers out,
7500 doors knocked so far today.

The real question/key is suburban NCCo. The numbers are huge. Most districts
-- Brandywine Hundred, Kirkwood Hwy, Newark, even Bear (which has no local
races and usually has bad turnout) -- surpassed the expected 5pm numbers at
2pm. It means one of two things:

1) Moderate/left-leaning populace is sick at the thought of Christine
O'Donnell being in the Senate and are turning out to say as much; or
2) The doomsday scenario, which is what happened on primary day -- everyone
assumes high turnout is bad for COD and we get hit by a wave. It's just
really, really hard to believe in many of these districts with 60%+
Democratic performance.

Some places in southern NCCo (parts of the 9th in Middletown) are expected
COD districts.

The biggest fear now is how the local candidates are doing. Many of these
northern NCCo places with exceptionally high turnout -- 18th (Christiana),
6th/7th/10th (Brandywine Hundred), 23rd (Newark) -- have very close races.
If this was '06 or '08, when we expected people to pull D all the way down
the ballot, everyone would feel great.

Another pull coming at 5pm...


On Tue, Nov 2, 2010 at 11:18 AM, Person, Fran <Fran_Person@ovp.eop.gov>wrote:

> I will show him...thanks Alex
>
> ------------------------------
> *From*: Alexander Snyder-Mackler <smacklera@gmail.com>
> *To*: BB <261penn@gmail.com>; Hunter Biden <hbiden@rosemontseneca.com>;
> Eric Schwerin <eschwerin@rosemontseneca.com>; Joe Rogalsky <
> joerogalsky@gmail.com>; Missy Owens <missy.owens@gmail.com>; Valerie Biden
> Owens <valerie.o@joesladewhite.com>; ted kaufman <tedkaufman@comcast.net>;
> Acdonilon <acdonilon@aol.com>; Alan Hoffman <alanlhoffman@hotmail.com>;
> Person, Fran; Smith, Michele
> *Sent*: Tue Nov 02 11:13:16 2010
> *Subject*: turnout report
>
> First update --
> Numbers look good for now -- not great, not bad at all though. We are used
> to being behind after the first pull, as Rs usually vote earlier, but we're
> holding water (which is all we need to do today).
> Most priority Dem areas are consistent with, or higher than, they should
> be.The 1st RD (PS Dupont, Baynard, PAL) is especially strong, for the
> morning. Rest of Dem bellweather and other high D turnout districts are
> either where they should be, or close to where they should be. Not many are
> lagging behind.
> Sussex #s coming in slower, some of the Republican bellweather districts
> are strong but not blowout-strong. The rest are mostly on par w/expected
> turnout. Only R district that's blowout-strong right now is Tatnall,
> presumably b/c ppl went to vote when the VP did.
>
> Still early yet, though, still have many of the 10am numbers coming in...
> Next fresh pull is at 2.
>
> Fran/Michele/Alan, not sure who's w/JRB please let me know if it's none of
> you.
>
> Stay tuned.
> A
>
> --
>
> Alexander Snyder-Mackler
> (302) 598-8678
>


--

Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-867