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Save Ukraine to counter Russia, says Soros

By Christian Oliver in Brussels

©Bloomberg

Financier George Soros

Billionaire investor George Soros has accused western leaders of
dangerously miscalculating their strategy towards Russia and Ukraine,
arguing that the crisis there posed a lethal risk to the eurozone.

In an interview with the Financial Times, the Hungarian-born
philanthropist complained that European leaders were treating Ukraine
as “just another country” in need of financial assistance rather than
realising that the crisis on the EU’s eastern border posed a greater
danger toEurope’s economy, and even the survival of the EU, than the
Greek election.

Mr Soros said sanctions on Moscow were having a far deeper effect than
western leaders had ever imagined because of the collapse in oil
prices and added that a Russian debt default would “not be
surprising”.

He added that Russia’s financial meltdown represented a strategic as
well as an economic threat to Europe, with Moscow’s policy likely to
become even more aggressively nationalist as the economy
deteriorated.“Sanctions against Russia reinforce the deflationary and
recessionary pressures that were already present [in Europe] but have
now become a reality,” Mr Soros said. “A default would be a big blow
to European banks exposed to Russia.”

Despite those dangers, Mr Soros stressed that he was not calling for
the easing of sanctions, which were a “necessary evil” to push Russian
forces out of Ukraine.

Instead, he said the US and EU were making a big mistake by failing to
back up their sanctions with a massive financial support programme for
Ukraine, which he estimated would have to run to $50bn and would need
to be approved in the first quarter of 2015.

The 84-year-old hedge fund financier said Europe needed to “wake up”
and accept that it was under attack from Russia. “Assisting Ukraine
should be seen as a defence measure by European countries,” he said.
“The US and the Europeans are determined to avoid a war but unless
they balance sanctions with support for Ukraine, they may well have
one.”

Mr Soros was speaking before the publication of an essay in The New
York Review of Books where he lays out detailed proposals for how a
$50bn support plan for Ukraine could be marshalled by international
institutions, including the EU and International Monetary Fund.

This massively expanded financial firepower, he argued, was the only
way Europe could counter Moscow’s nationalist expansionism and save
Ukraine from a bankruptcy that would strengthen hardliners in Russia.
“Hopefully, Russia’s troubles and Ukraine’s progress would persuade
President Vladimir Putin to give up as a lost cause his attempts to
destabilise Ukraine,” Mr Soros wrote in his essay.

However, EU leaders are reluctant to provide more funds and even
struggled to raise €1bn for the fight against Ebola. Similarly,
western nations are holding back on pumping fresh money into Ukraine
until they see evidence of reform in Kiev. European officials balked
last month at the idea of extra support for Ukraine when the IMF
identified a $15bn funding gap.

For Mr Soros, this was evidence that western leaders had not
understood Russia’s ambitions to undermine the EU itself, supporting
anti-bloc politicians and using gas exports to play countries off
against each other. “The EU itself is disintegrating,” he said.
“Russia offers an alternative view of the world — force rather than
rule of law”.

Mr Soros said an economic rescue of Ukraine would change Russian
politics. While a Ukrainian bankruptcy would cement the power of
hardliners, he said economic regeneration in the country, led by the
EU and US, would bolster a more western-looking opposition in Russia.

Mr Soros, infamous for betting against the pound in 1992, made no
attempt to disguise his bias for Ukraine where he established a
foundation in 1990 and said the country was ripe for investment.

He said western companies looking for Ukraine’s growth areas should
turn to its energy networks and the agricultural sector of the Soviet
Union’s former breadbasket. The most lucrative area would be improving
the efficiency of the country’s power and heating networks, which are
10 times more energy intensive than the average in the OECD, the Paris
based group of countries that aims to promote sustainable growth.

“For investment, energy efficiency is tops and agriculture has great
potential as number two,” Mr Soros said.